Price trend

 

According to data from Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 4000 yuan/ton on January 1st. On December 31st, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 4040 yuan/ton. In 2023, the overall price of diammonium phosphate increased by 1.00%. The highest value within the year is 4083 yuan/ton, and the lowest value within the year is 3687 yuan/ton.

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

quotations analysis

 

The market situation of diammonium phosphate in 2023 was initially suppressed and then increased. From January to July, the market price of diammonium phosphate fluctuated and declined. The trend of raw material prices is poor, and cost support is weak. The supply of diammonium in the factory is tight, and most manufacturers have suspended orders. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is average, and the on-site trading atmosphere is light. In spring, there is a shortage of corn fertilizer sales, and the market has a strong mentality of buying up rather than falling. During the off-season for fertilizer use in summer, the demand for diammonium continues to be weak, and manufacturers and distributors have lowered their prices. From August to November, the market price of diammonium phosphate increased significantly. The supply of diammonium in the market is tight, and dealers are mainly reluctant to sell. Coupled with good demand performance, the market situation is strong and rising. International market demand is following up, and prices continue to rise. In December, the market price of diammonium phosphate was weak and fell. The purchasing atmosphere in the diammonium market has weakened, downstream demand is weak, market inquiries have decreased, new transactions are limited, and many manufacturers have suspended quotations. Although there is support from pending orders, as the volume of pending orders decreases, the support gradually weakens.

 

According to the K-bar chart of 2023, it can be seen that the maximum increase in diammonium phosphate in November 2023 was 4.02%. The largest decline of the year was in June, with a decline of 2.50%.

 

2024 Aftermarket Forecast

 

Capacity situation

 

The total production capacity of diammonium phosphate in 2023 was 23.94 million tons, an increase of 11.82% compared to the same period last year. This year, some companies have added production, while others have eliminated outdated equipment. Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and eight other departments issued the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Efficient and High Value Utilization of Phosphorus Resources. The plan mentions strict control of new production capacity in industries such as ammonium phosphate and yellow phosphorus. There are still expectations for new production increases and device replacements in 2024, and it is expected that the production capacity of diammonium phosphate may show a slight upward trend in 2024.

 

Production situation

 

The total production of diammonium phosphate in 2023 was 13.8146 million tons, an increase of 2.4399 million tons from last year and a year-on-year increase of 21.45%. At the beginning of 2023, there were many export orders, and coupled with the demand for fertilizer in spring, the production of diammonium phosphate increased. With the end of the spring fertilizer season and the arrival of the off-season, market demand has weakened, and the operating load of the equipment has decreased. After the peak autumn sales season arrived, coupled with the continuous follow-up of export orders, the market supply was tight, and the operating rate of the diammonium plant increased, resulting in an increase in production. At the end of the year, demand weakened, operating rates declined again, and production decreased. With the continuous increase in domestic and international agricultural demand, it is expected that the production of diammonium phosphate will continue to increase in 2024.

 

Export situation

The total export volume of diammonium phosphate from January to November 2023 was approximately 4.6688 million tons, an increase of 1.342 million tons compared to last year and a year-on-year increase of 40.34%. The top three countries in terms of export volume in 2023 are India, Vietnam, and Thailand. The phosphorus compound fertilizer conference was held in November this year. Under the influence of policies to ensure supply and stable prices and export restrictions, it is expected that the export volume of diammonium phosphate may decrease in 2024.

 

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Cost situation

 

The raw material phosphate ore in 2023 has seen a wide range of ups and downs, but has stabilized and ended. In 2024, on the one hand, the overall supply side of phosphate ore will remain tight, providing market support. On the other hand, the overall downstream demand will also increase. In terms of new energy, combined with the traditional downstream demand peak season, the phosphate ore market will still have an overall upward trend. However, the current market price is already at a high level. Therefore, the expected price increase in the phosphate ore market in 2024 is limited, and the market prospects are unlimited.

 

Supply situation

 

The supply of diammonium phosphate in the market will increase in 2023. With the continuous improvement of agricultural demand and production technology, it is expected that the supply of diammonium phosphate in the market will continue to increase in 2024.

 

Demand situation

 

The market demand for diammonium phosphate mainly lies in agricultural fertilization and compound fertilizer production. With the increasing demand for fertilizers in agricultural production, coupled with the rapid development of water-soluble fertilizers and high-efficiency compound fertilizers in recent years. It is expected that the demand for diammonium phosphate in the market will steadily increase in 2024.

 

summary

 

Taking into account the above factors. The price of diammonium phosphate is influenced by various factors such as raw material costs, supply and demand, export conditions, policies, and peak and off seasons. At present, the price of diammonium phosphate is in a high consolidation stage. It is expected that the price of diammonium phosphate will show a slight fluctuation and decline trend in the first half of 2024, and the price may rise significantly again after the peak autumn sales season arrives. With the increase in agricultural demand, the market for diammonium phosphate will continue to operate at a high level and improve in 2024.

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After the holiday, zinc prices fluctuated slightly and fell

 

PVA 0599 (PVA BF05)

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 8th, the zinc price was 21392 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.91% from the zinc price of 21588 yuan/ton on January 1st. The processing cost of zinc concentrate has decreased, and the inventory of zinc ingots in ports has increased. After the New Year’s Day holiday, zinc prices have slightly fluctuated and fallen.

 

The processing cost of zinc concentrate has decreased

 

From the trend chart of zinc concentrate processing fees, it can be seen that after the New Year’s Day holiday, zinc concentrate processing fees continue to decline, with a decrease of 100-300 yuan/ton in zinc concentrate processing fees in different regions, a decrease in zinc concentrate processing fees, and a decrease in the enthusiasm of zinc smelting enterprises to start production.

 

Increase in zinc concentrate port inventory

 

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From the trend chart of zinc concentrate port inventory, it can be seen that the post holiday zinc concentrate port inventory has increased. On January 5th, the total zinc concentrate port inventory was 394000 tons, an increase of 58000 tons from 336000 tons before the holiday. The inventory of zinc concentrate in ports has increased, and the supply of zinc in the market is sufficient.

 

Increase in zinc ingot inventory

 

From the domestic zinc ingot social inventory statistics table, it can be seen that after the holiday, domestic zinc ingot inventory first decreased and then increased, and overall zinc ingot inventory was relatively low. The zinc market supply was sufficient, and the support for the increase in zinc prices was insufficient.

 

Future Market Forecast

 

According to data analysts from Business Society, after the New Year’s Day holiday, zinc ingot inventory and an increase in zinc concentrate port inventory result in sufficient supply of zinc in the market; However, the recovery of demand in the zinc market is limited. The processing cost of zinc concentrate has decreased, and the enthusiasm of zinc smelting enterprises to start production has decreased. In addition, the turmoil around the Red Sea has affected the supply of zinc in the market; Expected strong fluctuations and consolidation in zinc prices in the future.

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Price trend

 

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, most vitamin products have been on a downward trend in 2023. Taking vitamin A, vitamin C, and vitamin E as examples, the price trend in 2023 has been falling repeatedly. Large domestic and foreign factories have been forced to stop production and reduce production due to severe profit losses, and downstream industries have been sluggish for a long time. The pessimistic atmosphere on the market is shrouded, and the search for price support points has been fruitless, resulting in a decline throughout the year.

 

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, the price of vitamin C in 2023 decreased from 27.33 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 19.33 yuan/kg at the end of the year, with a year-on-year decline of 29.27%. The largest decline occurred on December 6th, with a decline of 32.93%. Subsequently, the market situation saw a turning point and a slight rebound.

 

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, the price of vitamin A in 2023 decreased from 104.5 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 75.5 yuan/kg at the end of the year, a decrease of 27.75% for the whole year, as of the end of 2023. The vitamin A market has yet to show a stop in decline signal.

 

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, the price of vitamin E in 2023 has dropped from 82.67 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 64 yuan/kg at the end of the year, a decrease of 22.58% for the whole year. As of the end of 2023, the price of vitamin E has fallen to a historical low point.

 

Tight supply side

 

From the perspective of maintenance and production stoppage, the overall vitamin market supply will tighten in 2023, especially during the peak summer maintenance season when large factories undergo centralized maintenance. However, this has not effectively boosted the vitamin market. Although there have been news of price increases on the news surface, the actual transaction focus still shows a downward trend.

 

The demand side continues to be weak

 

The main downstream industries of vitamins include feed, food and beverage, cosmetics, and medicine. Feed additives account for the largest proportion of the overall demand for vitamins, and the industry generally believes that over 70% of vitamin consumption is used in this field.

 

PVA 0588 ( PVA BP05)

Taking live pigs as an example, since 2021, the pig cycle has entered a downward channel, and pig breeding enterprises are facing dual pressures of declining pig prices and rising feed costs, resulting in deteriorating profitability, cash flow situation, and increased debt burden. Since 2021, the output of live pigs has increased rapidly. Although the growth rate of pig output slowed down from the end of September 2022 to 2023, the situation of overcapacity continued, and pig prices fluctuated at low levels. Since 2021, the oversupply of pig production capacity has driven pig prices into a rapid downward trend.

 

The export market is relatively stable

 

According to customs data, the export volume of vitamin A in China was 466.8 tons in November 2023, a year-on-year increase of 14% and a month on month decrease of 11.4%. The total domestic VA exports from January to November 2023 were 4543.36 tons, a year-on-year increase of 28.5%.

 

According to customs data, the export volume of vitamin E in China was 7743.99 tons in November 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 1.41% and a month on month increase of 27.4%. From January to November 2023, China’s total export volume of vitamin E was 75900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7%.

 

Future Market Forecast

In 2023, the vitamin market will continue to be affected by weak demand, with prices falling nearly 30%, exceeding expectations. Looking ahead to 2024, the downstream breeding industry will continue to operate with a focus on reducing production capacity. After pig prices fluctuate at a low level, there is a possibility of an upward trend in the pig cycle. The cost of breeding pigs and piglets has decreased, and the efficiency of breeding has improved. As a result, the extent of losses for pig breeding enterprises has narrowed or is expected to achieve profitability. At the same time, the market prices of vitamin A, vitamin C, and vitamin E have basically bottomed out, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices to reverse the poor performance situation. So after a period of consolidation and operation in 2024, the market for vitamins is expected to see a real rebound.

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Price trend

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

In December, the domestic ABS market saw a negative decline, with many spot prices of various brands decreasing. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 31st, the average price of ABS sample products was 10662.5 yuan/ton, with a decrease of -4.26% from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

 

Cause analysis

 

In terms of supply: In the early stage, the domestic ABS industry had a high load, and due to supply pressure, some enterprises had a reduced load. At the beginning of the month, the operating rate of ABS aggregation enterprises was 75%, and the current industry load has decreased to around 71%. The production of the enterprise is relatively stable, but due to some new contract orders and some enterprises reducing their burden in the latter half of the year, the inventory situation has improved narrowly. However, the improvement of the company’s loss situation is limited, and the supply pressure is still high. The supply side’s drag on the spot market continues.

 

In terms of raw materials, the overall trend of ABS upstream three materials in December was poor, with a large fluctuation in the acrylonitrile market, and the overall price almost returned to the level at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material propylene has weakened, and the cost support for acrylonitrile has weakened; The demand for acrylonitrile support is gradually weakening; However, the production of acrylonitrile itself has increased, and in December, the fundamentals of acrylonitrile were dynamically balanced, with prices fluctuating and consolidating.

 

The domestic butadiene market saw a significant decline in December. In the first half of the year, there were sporadic returns of maintenance equipment, and there was an expected arrival of cargo at the port, leading to an increase in supply and creating a bearish drag on the market atmosphere. Major production enterprises significantly lowered their factory quotes. Downstream construction has not shown significant improvement, and there is a lack of positive news on the demand side. The domestic market price of butadiene has sharply declined. After the market bottoms out, it will begin to recover at the end of the month, but considering the demand side, there may be resistance to subsequent increases.

 

PVA 0599 (PVA BF05)

From the figure below, it can be seen that the market price of styrene in December first fell and then rose. The market fell for three weeks and rose for a week, with the decline exceeding the increase. The main reason for the decline is the decline in international oil prices, poor cost support, a stalemate between supply and demand of styrene, slow transactions, and a continuous decline in the market. After the market bottomed out, it rebounded, but the magnitude was small and the upward trend was weak.

 

In terms of demand: In December, the main ABS terminals, including downstream factories in the home appliance industry, continued to have poor stocking enthusiasm, mainly focusing on digesting existing inventory. Enterprises tend to maintain production in their procurement operations, making it difficult to increase demand. Mid stream traders tend to have a wait-and-see attitude and a low willingness to purchase goods. The slow circulation of spot goods creates a drag on the market.

 

Future Market Forecast

 

The overall performance of ABS upstream materials in December was poor, with weak support for the cost side of ABS. The petrochemical plant has seen a narrow decline in its high operating level, with limited improvement in supply pressure. The demand side consumption is poor, and merchants have weak confidence in the future market. The position of spot inventory may increase after the holiday, and the prospects for improving the supply-demand imbalance in the market are not good. The ABS market may still have downward momentum, and it is recommended to closely monitor the adjustment of supply side production capacity.

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According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market for maleic anhydride continued to rise in late December. As of December 31, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 7860.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.08% from the price of 7480.00 yuan/ton on December 21.

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

In terms of supply: In late December, the factory mainly executed preliminary orders, and the stock was tight. However, at the end of the month, downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong, and chasing higher prices was cautious. As of December 31st, the factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 7700-7800 yuan/ton, and the factory price of liquid anhydride is around 7600-7700 yuan/ton.

 

Upstream aspect: In late December, the market for hydrogenated benzene rose, while the overall styrene market rose. The pure benzene hydrogenated benzene market followed suit, with most crude benzene auction prices slightly rising, and the overall industry chain rising.

 

In late December, the international crude oil market fluctuated, the naphtha market fluctuated and declined, and the recent market for n-butane fluctuated and declined. As of December 31, the price in Shandong was around 5100-5200 yuan/ton.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

Downstream: In late December, the unsaturated resin market continued to rise due to the continuous rise in raw materials. However, towards the end of the year, downstream demand for resin was weak, and overall market trading was average, with cautious operations.

 

Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analyst believes that currently, the upstream hydrogenation benzene market of maleic anhydride is rising, and the cost of maleic anhydride is supported; Downstream unsaturated resin transactions are limited, and the market often follows the trend of entering the market; At present, the prices of the main factories of maleic anhydride remain stable, with the execution of preliminary orders being the main focus. The price of maleic anhydride is high, and downstream purchasing sentiment is average. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will mainly consolidate at high levels after the holiday.

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