1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, the PVC spot market price in January first fell and then rose, and overall, the price fell. On January 1st, the average price of PVC in China was 5638 yuan/ton. On January 30th, the average price was 5592 yuan/ton, and the price dropped by 0.82% during the month.

2、 Market analysis

In January, the spot market price of PVC first fell and then rose, and overall, the price fell. In the first half of this month, the spot market price of PVC fell. The enthusiasm for market inquiries is average, and market transactions are light. In the middle of the month, the delivery situation is average, and the manufacturer’s quotation is mainly stable. Downstream just needs to pick up goods, considering that the end of the year is approaching, some small processing plants are considering a holiday. Demand is slowing down, corporate inventories are high, and actual transactions are cautious. In the latter half of the year, the spot market stopped falling and rose, with futures trading showing four consecutive gains, driving confidence in the spot market. In addition, with the approaching Spring Festival, some companies are hoarding a small amount of goods, and the trading atmosphere in the market has improved. As of now, the quotation range for PVC 5 type carbide materials in China is mostly around 5300-5800 yuan/ton.

On January 29th, international crude oil futures fell. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $76.78 per barrel, a decrease of $1.23 or 1.6%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $81.83 per barrel, a decrease of $1.15 or 1.6%.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region fell in January. On January 1st, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China dropped from 3016.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3000 yuan/ton on January 30th, a decrease of 0.55%. The downstream PVC market slightly declined, demand weakened, and the price of raw material blue charcoal slightly decreased, resulting in insufficient cost support. In the future, it is expected that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate and fall narrowly in late January, with consolidation being the main trend.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to PVC analysts from Business Society, PVC has experienced a decline followed by an increase this month, and overall prices have declined. As the end of the month approaches, market demand slows down and enterprise inventories are high. Downstream processing enterprises are gradually taking holidays, and their enthusiasm for purchasing PVC spot goods is average. It is expected that the PVC market will remain stable in the short term.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China has slightly declined this week. On the 29th, the market reported around 13240 yuan/ton, and on the 22nd, it reported around 13320 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.60%. The raw material acrylonitrile remains stable, the price of acrylic acid has slightly increased, and the cost of polyacrylamide has been slightly supported. Enterprises in the main production areas are operating normally, and the market supply is abundant. Downstream demand is weak, and commodity circulation is slow. The mainstream market trend of polyacrylamide is mainly consolidating.

Raw material acrylonitrile: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the acrylonitrile market remained stable this week, and as of January 29th, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 9287 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream price for self extraction of acrylonitrile from tanks in the market is between 9200 to 9500 yuan/ton. The price of raw material propylene has increased, and the cost has strengthened the support for acrylonitrile; As the end of the lunar calendar approaches, the main downstream ABS production has dropped to around 65%, leading to a decrease in purchases of acrylonitrile; The overall supply of acrylonitrile units is loose, and the impact of supply and demand is bearish, resulting in a weak market consolidation.

Raw Material Acrylic Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the overall acrylic acid market has slightly increased this week. As of January 29th, the average price of acrylic acid in the East China region is 6175 yuan/ton. At present, the cost support is still acceptable, and downstream companies need to follow up. The market atmosphere is light.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic liquefied natural gas prices have significantly increased this week. At present, there is support on the cost side, and the demand for replenishment in the market is increasing. There is a strong bullish atmosphere, and liquid prices continue to rise.

Market forecast: In the near future, the overall raw material prices will slightly increase, the fuel market will rise, and the cost of polyacrylamide will rise. On the supply side, enterprises in the main production areas have normal production and sufficient market supply; On the demand side, downstream procurement and supply remain flat, with little change in market transactions. It is expected that domestic polyacrylamide sorting will be the main focus in the near future.

Recently (1.5-1.26), the nitrile rubber market has seen a narrow consolidation. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 26th, the price of nitrile rubber was 14575 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.17% from 14550 yuan/ton on the 5th. The price of raw material butadiene continues to rise, while the price of acrylonitrile slightly decreases, and the cost of nitrile rubber still has support; In the winter off-season, coupled with the gradual decline in downstream production near the Spring Festival, the demand for nitrile rubber is weak. The market price of nitrile rubber fluctuates narrowly. As of January 26th, the mainstream market price of Lanhua 3305 in East China is 13800-14000 yuan/ton; Russian nitrile 3365 reported around 13500-13700 yuan/ton; Shunze 3355 market report around 14400-14600 yuan/ton; Nandi Nitrile 1052 reported around 16300~16500 yuan/ton.

Recently (1.5-1.26), the price of raw material butadiene has continued to rise, while the price of acrylonitrile has weakened slightly, and the cost of nitrile rubber continues to support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 26th, the price of butadiene was 9143 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.50% from 8750 yuan/ton on the 5th; As of January 26th, the price of acrylonitrile was 9287 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.87% from 9762 yuan/ton on the 5th.

The production of downstream nitrile rubber hoses in China has dropped to a low level of around 45%, while the production of rubber insulation foam has decreased significantly compared to the previous period, resulting in weak demand for nitrile rubber.

Market forecast: Business Society’s nitrile analyst believes that currently, nitrile rubber is supported by rising butadiene prices and costs, but downstream production is declining and demand is weak. In addition, the supply of nitrile rubber is expected to be tight in the later stage. Overall, it is expected that the nitrile rubber market will mainly narrow before the holiday.

Introduction: Methyl tert butyl ether (MTBE) is an organic compound that can be added to gasoline as a catalyst. It plays a catalytic and combustion supporting role during gasoline combustion, allowing gasoline to fully burn and decompose into water and carbon dioxide. Its oxygen content is relatively high, which can significantly improve car exhaust emissions.

Firstly, let’s review the trend of the MTBE market in 2023. The domestic MTBE market experienced strong fluctuations in 2023, with an average price of 6100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 6512 yuan/ton at the end of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.76%. From the MTBE price trend chart, it can be seen that the highest point of MTBE prices in 2023 occurred in October, with a highest price of 8162 yuan/ton. The lowest point of MTBE prices occurred at the beginning of the year, with a lowest price of 6100 yuan/ton and a maximum amplitude of 33.81%.

In the first half of 2023, the overall domestic MTBE price was in a trend of first rising and then falling. The international crude oil price rose significantly at one point, effectively supporting the bullish enthusiasm of market operators. At the same time, with the support of equipment maintenance and export port orders, the spot supply of MTBE was further tightened, and MTBE manufacturers actively pushed up with smooth shipments. The center of gravity of MTBE prices has significantly shifted upwards. Starting from May, although the supply side of MTBE is still tight and supported by export orders, domestic downstream demand is weak. MTBE manufacturers ensure that the shipment rhythm is to lower prices first and enter a fluctuating downward channel.

In the third quarter of 2023, the domestic MTBE market showed a fluctuating upward trend. In mid to late July, under the influence of favorable exports, the supply of goods in the MTBE market was tight, coupled with improved trading in the gasoline market and accelerated terminal demand. The dual benefits of supply and demand supported the upward trend of the MTBE market. In August, the international crude oil market performed well, supported by some equipment maintenance and export orders, and the MTBE market continued to remain at a high level. Entering September, driven by positive news, downstream companies showed good enthusiasm for entering the market. MTBE manufacturers shipped smoothly and the market fluctuated higher. However, as downstream companies showed a fear of high prices, market trading slowed down. However, supported by low inventory and export orders, many manufacturers operated at high prices.

In the fourth quarter, the domestic MTBE market situation can be described as a unilateral decline, turning into a weak oscillation towards the end of the year. Due to the sustained low international crude oil prices and reduced gasoline consumption during winter travel, the purchase volume of MTBE has decreased. The driving force of some export sources has enabled MTBE to maintain a volatile trend at the end of the year.

Where is the domestic MTBE market path in 2024? Let’s take a closer look:

On the supply side, due to severe overcapacity in the domestic MTBE industry, the new capacity of MTBE has been very limited in the past five years. In 2023, MTBE will increase production capacity by 790000 tons to 21.8 million tons, and two sets of Dalian Hengli and Anqing Taifa will be put into operation by the end of the year. In 2023, MTBE production profits slightly improved, even reaching new highs since 2016 in the second and third quarters. The MTBE operating rate has increased to 61%, reaching a new high in nearly six years. The production increased to 16.02 million tons. The supply of MTBE in 2024 has a bearish impact.

Import and export, MTBE’s export performance in 2022 was impressive, and this strong performance continued until 2023, playing a significant role in alleviating domestic supply pressure. However, the current demand is showing a weak pattern, and the overall international market is weak, which will have a certain negative impact on MTBE exports. At the same time, if we want to enhance the competitiveness of domestic MTBE in the international market, it will also lead to certain suppression of MTBE prices. In 2023, the import volume of MTBE sharply decreased from 56000 tons to 2496 tons, while the export volume increased by 23% year-on-year to 1.84 million tons. The import volume hit a new historical low while the export volume reached a new historical high. In 2024, there were positive factors affecting MTBE exports.

On the demand side, China’s new energy development momentum is good, and its substitution effect on traditional petrochemical gasoline will be further highlighted. About 93% of domestic MTBE is added to gasoline, and as the growth rate of gasoline consumption slows down, the demand for MTBE will also tend to slow down, which will be reflected in changes in MTBE prices. The demand for MTBE in the coming years is not optimistic.

In the future, with the support of fundamentals, Venezuela’s crude oil resources decreased in the first half of the year, and international crude oil prices are expected to recover and consolidate. As a downstream product of crude oil, the trend of crude oil will have a certain bottoming effect on its price. With a slight increase in supply and a substitution effect of new energy on traditional gasoline, MTBE consumption may gradually narrow. At the same time, there are also expectations of a decrease in external demand, which will put some pressure on MTBE prices.

1、 Price trend

Upstream cost support has increased, downstream paint demand is weak, and the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol has slightly increased this week. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of new pentanediol in the mainstream domestic market increased from 9875 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9950 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 0.76%, and the weekend price increased by 4.01% year-on-year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, new pentanediol enterprises started construction at a high level, and mainstream market prices slightly increased.

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the price of isobutyraldehyde in the domestic market has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 8466.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8566.67 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 1.18%, and the weekend price increased by 7.98% year-on-year. The upstream isobutyraldehyde has a strong center of gravity, with a slight increase in market prices and good cost support. Due to the impact of supply and demand, it has a positive impact on the price of new pentanediol. From the perspective of downstream demand, the recovery of the downstream paint industry is slow, and demand remains weak. The enterprise has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, with a focus on essential procurement.

3、 Future prospects

In late January, the trend of the new pentanediol market may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market has slightly increased, with increased cost support. The downstream paint market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, with enterprises mainly focusing on procurement for immediate needs. Business Society’s new pentanediol analyst believes that in the short term, the market for new pentanediol may experience slight fluctuations and increases due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

Introduction: Hydrochloric acid is an aqueous solution of hydrogen chloride (HCl), which is an inorganic compound with the chemical formula HCl. It is generated by the reaction of chlorine and hydrogen gas, and is an important chemical raw material and reagent. It is a colorless and transparent liquid with an irritating odor. The upstream of the hydrochloric acid industry chain mainly includes liquid chlorine, raw salt, etc; Widely used downstream, mainly in industries such as chemical raw materials, pharmaceuticals, metallurgy, food, printing and dyeing. It is a raw material for manufacturing chlorides such as ammonium chloride, polyaluminum chloride, calcium chloride, barium chloride, and ferric chloride.

The domestic hydrochloric acid market will experience broad fluctuations in 2023

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market will experience a wide range of fluctuations in 2023. The average price at the beginning of the year was 174 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 112.50 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decline of 35.34%. From the trend chart of hydrochloric acid prices, it can be seen that the highest price of hydrochloric acid in 2023 was 207 yuan/ton at the end of April, and the lowest price was 95 yuan/ton in early December, with a maximum annual decline of 54.11%.

From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that in 2023, the price of hydrochloric acid has fallen more than risen, and the market trend is showing a wide range of fluctuations. The highest increase was 19.28% in March, and the highest decrease was 15.46% in May. In January, the trend of low consolidation at the end of 2022 continued, with average support for raw material costs and basically unchanged prices of hydrochloric acid. At the end of the month, the downstream market for polyaluminum chloride was weak, with insufficient demand, resulting in a downward trend in hydrochloric acid prices. In February, supported by the sharp rise in raw material liquid chlorine, the price of hydrochloric acid began to rise step by step, rising to around 207 yuan/ton in early May, with an increase of up to 34.42%. Subsequently, the prices of raw materials fell and stabilized, and downstream rigid demand procurement mainly followed the market trend. Hydrochloric acid operates in a narrow range with a price of around 173 yuan/ton. In early December, upstream liquid chlorine prices plummeted. According to data statistics, the price of liquid chlorine has plummeted from 350 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71.43%. Due to insufficient support, hydrochloric acid plummeted by 24% and subsequently operated at a low level.

How will the hydrochloric acid market develop in 2024?

From the perspective of production capacity and output: According to data, China’s hydrochloric acid production in 2022 was approximately 8.2135 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%. The East China region is one of the main regions for hydrochloric acid production in China. Among them, Jiangsu Province is one of the important bases for hydrochloric acid production in China, with hydrochloric acid production ranking first in the country. In 2024, with the strengthening of environmental protection policies, some hydrochloric acid production enterprises may be forced to stop or reduce production, and hydrochloric acid production may decrease.

From the perspective of market demand, the demand for hydrochloric acid in China’s market in 2022 is about 8.21 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%. Due to changes in downstream demand, the market size of China’s hydrochloric acid industry has experienced significant fluctuations in recent years. The market size of China’s hydrochloric acid industry decreased from 2017 to 2019, and began to recover from 2020 to 2021. As of 2022, the market size of China’s hydrochloric acid industry is approximately 1.935 billion yuan. In 2024, the demand for hydrochloric acid in automobiles, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and wastewater treatment will continue to expand, and the demand for hydrochloric acid will further increase in 2024.

From the perspective of imports and exports: According to customs data, the import volume of China’s hydrochloric acid industry was on the rise from 2015 to 2016, and the import volume exceeded the export volume. However, since 2017, the export volume of China’s hydrochloric acid industry has exceeded the import volume. From January to November 2023, the import volume of China’s hydrochloric acid industry was 5500 tons, and the export volume was 18200 tons. The export volume is expected to further increase in 2024.

In the future, with the development of China’s semiconductor industry, the localization of electronic grade hydrochloric acid is fully underway, and the market size of hydrochloric acid may further increase in 2024.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of acetic acid has remained stable recently. On January 16th, the average market price of acetic acid was 3200 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 3200 yuan/ton on January 8th. The month on month decrease is 3.03%.

Recently, the acetic acid market has been observing and consolidating. With manufacturers actively shipping, the pressure on enterprise inventory has weakened. However, the overall market supply is relatively sufficient, and the rise of acetic acid is limited. Downstream buyers often follow up on demand, and the market trading atmosphere is weak. Under the game of supply and demand, the price of acetic acid in the market remains stable. As of January 16th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions during the week are as follows:

The upstream raw material methanol market fluctuates in a range. On January 16th, the average price in the domestic market was 2432.50 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 0.38% compared to the price of 2423.33 yuan/ton on January 8th. Part of the companies on site have shut down their facilities, resulting in a strong increase in domestic methanol prices. In addition, the market trading atmosphere has improved, and transactions have improved. As a result, the company’s shipments have been good, and prices have increased again. However, due to high downstream inventory, the positive support is limited. At the same time, the supply expectation in the port area is high, and demand is weak, leading to a decline in the domestic methanol market.

The downstream acetic anhydride market is stabilizing. On January 16th, the ex factory price of acetic anhydride was 5837.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43% compared to the price of 5862.50 yuan/ton on January 8th. After the New Year’s Day holiday, the production of acetic anhydride enterprises has resumed and increased, and the inventory of manufacturers has increased. The market’s spot supply is relatively sufficient, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high. They often follow up on demand. In addition, the price of raw material acetic acid is stable, and cost support is weak, resulting in stable operation of acetic anhydride prices.

In the future market forecast, the acetic acid analyst from Business Society believes that acetic acid companies are actively shipping, with reduced inventory. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average, market trading atmosphere is weak, and demand support is insufficient. It is expected that the acetic acid market will continue to remain stable in the short term. In the long run, there may be a demand for stocking in the downstream before the holiday, and it is expected that prices will rise in the future market, with overall slight fluctuations.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of new pentanediol is temporarily stable this week. This week, the mainstream market price of new pentanediol in China was 9875 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 8.12% over the weekend. On January 15th, the new pentanediol commodity index was 47.59, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 54.07% from the highest point in the cycle of 103.61 points (2021-09-22), and an increase of 10.55% from the lowest point of 43.05 points on November 28th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

The mainstream market price of new pentanediol has remained stable this week.

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the price of isobutyraldehyde in the domestic market has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 8433.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8466.67 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 0.40%. The weekend price increased by 19.25% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, with good cost support. However, due to the impact of supply and demand, it has a positive impact on the price of new pentanediol.

3、 Future prospects

In mid to late January, the trend of the new pentanediol market may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream paint market is average, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is average. Business Society’s new pentanediol analyst believes that in the short term, the market for new pentanediol may experience slight fluctuations and increases due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have slightly declined this week, with the average market price dropping from 102.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 100 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.44%, and a year-on-year decrease of 42.53% in weekend prices. On January 15th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 25.00, a decrease of 1.32 points from yesterday, a decrease of 81.87% from the highest point in the cycle of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 39.04% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

Upstream support is average, downstream demand weakens

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have slightly declined this week, and the inventory of manufacturers is average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has recently stabilized at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream market price of polyaluminum chloride has slightly increased, with the market price rising from 1777.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1783.75 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 0.35%, and a year-on-year decrease of 11.70% over the weekend. The downstream ammonium chloride market has slightly declined. The market price dropped from 662.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 650 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 1.89%, and the weekend price fell by 43.84% year-on-year.

Future Market Forecast

In late January, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate and fall mainly. The upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride market has slightly declined, and downstream purchasing willingness has weakened. Analysts from Business Society believe that the hydrochloric acid market has been experiencing a slight fluctuation and decline in recent times.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the sulfur price trend in East China fell first and then rose this week. On January 12th, the sulfur price was 936.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.57% compared to January 5th, which was 1013.33 yuan/ton, and a decrease of 12.19% from the beginning of the month.

The sulfur market has experienced a significant decline this week. At the beginning of the week, the sulfur market in East China saw a broad decline, mainly due to a decrease in downstream device capacity utilization, weakened enthusiasm for sulfur procurement, weak market trading, poor shipments from sulfur refineries, and a continuous decline in port prices, which had a negative impact on the spot market. The bearish sentiment on the market led to a significant reduction in enterprise quotations to stimulate shipments; Afterwards, the market transaction atmosphere improved slightly, with some refineries producing better goods and companies slightly increasing their quotations. However, demand was limited, and the overall market remained weak. As of the 12th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong region is around 920-950 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur ranges from 900 to 1030 yuan/ton.

Downstream market trends in the industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid market continued to decline, with the average domestic sulfuric acid price on January 12th at 232.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.92% compared to the price of 252.5 yuan/ton on January 5th. The operating rate of on-site equipment is relatively high, the market supply is sufficient, and enterprises have a strong intention to ship. However, downstream demand is weak, and the market trading atmosphere is sluggish. Acid companies have poor shipments, and sulfuric acid prices are forced to decrease. At the same time, raw material prices have fallen, and cost bearish effects have continued to affect the sulfuric acid market.

The downstream ammonium phosphate market is experiencing a weak downturn. On January 12th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate was 3253.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.51% compared to the price of 3303.33 yuan/ton on January 5th. The downstream demand for ammonium phosphate production capacity is poor, and the follow-up of new orders is weak. The market transaction atmosphere is weak, and manufacturers have significant sales pressure, which continues to be weak. In addition, the raw material price has been lowered, and cost support is weak. As a result, the price of ammonium phosphate continues to decline.

Future Market Forecast

The sulfur analyst from Business Society believes that the sulfur plant on site is operating normally, the market supply of goods is stable, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is weak, and the market transaction atmosphere is average. Sulfur enterprises have limited shipments, insufficient demand support, and a lack of supply side benefits. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market may continue to operate weakly, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up in the future.