According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of December 12, 2023, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC was referenced at 14180 yuan/ton. Compared with December 1 (organic silicon DMC reference 14320 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.98%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in the first half of December, the overall domestic organic silicon DMC market showed a weak downward trend. Entering December, the overall atmosphere of the domestic organic silicon DMC market has been lackluster, with a slow pace of downstream demand transmission. It is difficult for the demand side to effectively support the organic silicon DMC market, and the market as a whole has not shown a busy situation of stocking at the end of the year. Instead, there is a quiet and wait-and-see attitude. Therefore, in the early stages, the supply and demand transmission of the organic silicon DMC market showed a stalemate, and the market center also narrowed downward, with transaction prices in some regions falling below 14000 yuan/ton. As of December 12th, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC is based on around 14000-14500 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the future trend of organic silicon DMC market

At present, the trading atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market is average. Although there is insufficient downstream demand, factories are constrained by cost pressures and do not want to continue to make profits. According to the organic silicon DMC data analyst from Shengyi Society, the domestic organic silicon DMC market has limited significant fluctuations in the short term, and the market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range.

Recent price trends of tetrahydrofuran

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of tetrahydrofuran in the domestic market has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of tetrahydrofuran in the mainstream domestic market increased from 12775.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 12975.00 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 1.57%. The weekend price increased by 1.17% year-on-year.

Upstream support is average, downstream demand weakens

From the supply side perspective, mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors have seen a slight increase in quotes this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of tetrahydrofuran, the market for 1,4-butanediol remained stable at a low level this week, with a price of 9614.29 yuan/ton. The weekend price increased by 1.89% year-on-year. The market situation of maleic anhydride has slightly increased this week, with prices rising from 7120.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7160.00 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 0.56%, and a year-on-year increase of 1.70% over the weekend. Overall, the upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, with good cost support. Due to the impact of supply and demand, it has a positive impact on the price of tetrahydrofuran.

From the downstream market of tetrahydrofuran, the price of spandex in the market has stabilized at a low level this week. The price of spandex is 32575.00 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.88% over the weekend. The downstream spandex market prices are consolidating at a low level, and downstream customers are less proactive in purchasing tetrahydrofuran.

Future prospects

In mid to late December, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream maleic anhydride market has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream spandex market is consolidating at a low level, and downstream demand is weakening. Business Society’s tetrahydrofuran analyst believes that in the short term, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience slight fluctuations and increases mainly due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

Price trend

In early December, the domestic POM market remained stagnant and weak, with spot prices remaining stable. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 8th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 13000 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market in Shengyishe, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has recently declined. The price of raw material methanol fluctuates and consolidates, with average cost support. Downstream demand is poor, the market trading atmosphere is relatively cold, and the market is declining, which provides poor support for POM spot prices.

In terms of supply:

In early December, the overall operating rate of domestic POM enterprises increased. The industry’s device load increased from 81% at the beginning of the month to the current 88%. In the early stage, the market supply has been reduced, and most enterprises have returned to low levels of inventory. Although there is no pressure on the current inventory of enterprises, they are gradually accumulating inventory, and the supply side has limited support for POM spot goods.

In terms of demand:

In early December, the operating level of downstream POM enterprises in China was average, with enterprises mainly digesting inventory. On exchange trading was weak, and POM consumption did not show any improvement. The operator needs to follow up with a small amount of urgent needs, operates cautiously, and resists high priced sources of goods. Overall, the demand side has poor support for POM spot prices.

Future Market Forecast

The POM market remained stagnant in early December. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants is increasing, and there is abundant supply of goods on site, but the inventory position of enterprises is still not high. Manufacturers have stabilized the confidence of traders through market support operations, but some merchants have increased their shipping pressure, and actual orders tend to be sold at a discounted price. On the demand side, terminal enterprises operate at a low level, with cautious purchasing operations and resistance to high priced sources, resulting in average on-site trading. It is expected that the POM market will remain stagnant in the near future.

The new order price of plasticizer DOTP surged in December

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 5th, the price of DOTP was 12080 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 5.04% compared to December 1st, which was 11500 yuan/ton. Some plasticizer companies have raised their DOTP prices by nearly a thousand yuan, while the price of raw material isooctanol continues to rise, supporting costs. At the beginning of the month, the price of new DOTP orders surged.

The price of isooctanol continues to steadily rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of isooctanol has been continuously rising since mid November. As of December 5th, the quotation for isooctanol is 11740 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.20% from the quotation of 11160 yuan/ton on November 11th. In November, the operating rate of downstream plasticizers increased, and large plasticizer factories actively purchased. The demand for rigid isooctanol increased, and isooctanol products showed a fluctuating upward trend. In the past three months, the operating rate of isooctanol enterprises has gradually recovered, and the supply of isooctanol has increased. With the continuous rise of isooctanol prices, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream plasticizer enterprises has declined under price pressure, and the supply and demand of isooctanol have been weak. In the future, the support for the rise of isooctanol has weakened, and the downward pressure has increased.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that the high production of plasticizer DOTP leads to an increase in DOTP supply; With the increase in DOTP prices, DOTP profits have increased, and downstream real order bargaining space has increased. Downstream customers have a strong willingness to purchase at lower prices. The continuous rise in the price of raw material isooctanol supports a significant increase in DOTP prices. In the future, there is insufficient support for the price increase of isooctanol, the cost of raw materials stabilizes, the supply and demand of plasticizer DOTP are weak, and downstream customers have a strong willingness to purchase at lower prices. It is expected that the high price of DOP will fall in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has recently fallen. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8595.00 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8300.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.43%. The price has increased by 6.07% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the market price of styrene has fallen. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has fluctuated slightly in the past month, with a significant decline in the market this week. International oil prices continue to decline, cost support is poor, downstream demand has not improved, styrene spot transactions are weak, and the market is fluctuating and falling.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene continued to decline this week, and spot resource transactions were weak. There was insufficient buying gas on the market, and most transactions were made in distant months. Shandong refineries have weak willingness to hold goods and have significantly lowered prices to promote shipments. After the price drop, the market’s buying sentiment improved, and a large number of low-priced goods were purchased to deliver orders within the week, resulting in better transactions.

On the downstream side, the prices of styrene in the three major downstream markets have fluctuated. The domestic PS market continues to decline, with a range of 80-100 yuan/ton. The significant decline in crude oil has driven down pure benzene and styrene, and the price of PS ordinary materials has also fallen, with a magnitude not as significant as upstream prices. Merchants mainly offer discounts for shipping, negotiate actual orders, and some transactions are made at low levels.

This week, the EPS market has fallen, with weakened upstream support and thin terminal profits. Buying follow-up is limited, and overall transactions are average. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere on the market, with buying mainly in demand. The reference price for EPS ordinary materials in the South China region is around 9700 yuan/ton.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has experienced slight fluctuations, and the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS is poor, with weak support for the cost side of ABS. The construction of petrochemical plants has generally maintained its early stage, and supply pressure continues. The demand side consumption is poor, and merchants are often bearish about the future market. It is expected that the supply-demand contradiction pattern of ABS market will be difficult to change in the short term, and may maintain a weak consolidation trend.

Recently, international crude oil prices have continued to decline, and the demand for styrene spot is still weak, with poor transactions. It is expected that the styrene market will experience short-term fluctuations and decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of acetic acid in November first fell and then rose. As of November 30th, the price was 3225.00 yuan/ton. Compared with the beginning of the month, the price of acetic acid increased by 75 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.38%, and decreased by 1.75% year-on-year.

As of the end of the month, the price details of acetic acid market in various regions of China in November are as follows:

Region/ November 1st/ November 15th/ November 30th

South China region/ 3125 yuan/ton/ 3125 yuan/ton/ 3125 yuan/ton

North China region/ 2950 yuan/ton/ 3075 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 2950 yuan/ton/ 3050 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton

Jiangsu region/ 2950 yuan/ton/ 3050 yuan/ton/ 3200 yuan/ton

Zhejiang region/ 3050 yuan/ton/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 3300 yuan/ton

In November, the acetic acid market first fell and then rose, with price ranges fluctuating. At the beginning of the month, downstream demand was sluggish, and market transactions were limited. Coupled with the influence of buying up but not buying down sentiment, the price of acetic acid continued to decline in October. Later, with frequent failures of acetic acid plants and the release of news of enterprise load reduction, the utilization rate of on-site acetic acid production capacity decreased, and many manufacturers maintained low inventory operations. Supported by favorable supply conditions, the bullish intention of operators increased, and some manufacturers increased their acetic acid prices. In the later stage, the utilization rate of downstream production capacity improved, The demand for acetic acid has improved, and under the dual benefits, the price of acetic acid has stopped falling and rebounded.

The methanol market for raw materials fluctuated widely, with an average price of 2510 yuan/ton in the domestic market as of November 30th. Compared with the price of 2425 yuan/ton on November 1st, the overall increase for the month was 3.50%. In the first half of the month, some major production areas had newly added unplanned maintenance and load reduction devices, resulting in a decrease in regional supply and a strong increase in methanol prices; In the middle of the month, coal prices stopped falling and rebounded, providing some support for methanol prices. However, downstream purchasing willingness was average, cost transmission was limited, and methanol market fluctuations were consolidated; In the latter half of the year, natural gas exports were restricted, supply was reduced, and cost was favorable for the methanol market. At the same time, prices of some downstream products were rising, and supply was gradually replenished as the main source. The demand side was also positive, and methanol prices rebounded and rose. Methanol prices fluctuated and consolidated within the month.

The downstream acetic anhydride market fluctuated and fell in November, with a price of 5712.50 yuan/ton on November 30th, a decrease of 0.87% from the price of 5762.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. After a brief shutdown of the acetic anhydride manufacturer’s operating load within the month, the device restarted and the load increased. The spot market supply of acetic anhydride was sufficient, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride was significant. The upstream acetic acid price did not fluctuate much, and the cost support for acetic acid was limited. The price of acetic anhydride was weak and fluctuated.

According to analysts from Business Society, the current operating load of acetic acid enterprises has decreased, manufacturers have low inventory, and there is a strong upward momentum in acetic acid prices. Downstream production capacity utilization is high, and there is good demand for acetic acid. Supply and demand support is positive. In addition, manufacturers have a clear intention to explore price increases, and it is expected that the acetic acid market will be strong and upward in the future. Specific attention will be paid to downstream replenishment in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the average market price of acetic acid on November 30th was 3225 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.57% compared to the price of 3175 yuan/ton on November 23rd, and an increase of 2.38% from the beginning of the month.

This week, the acetic acid market has been relatively strong, with frequent fluctuations in supplier equipment, unexpected failures in Anhui Huayi and Jiangsu Sopu acetic acid plants, low load operation of Guangxi acetic acid enterprises, reduced market supply, low inventory operation of manufacturers, and high downstream capacity utilization, resulting in good demand for acetic acid. As a result, the willingness of acetic acid enterprises to raise prices has increased, leading to an upward trend in market price consolidation. As of November 30th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions during the month are as follows:

Region/ November 23rd/ November 30th/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 3075 yuan/ton/ 3150 yuan/ton/ seventy-five

North China region/ 3100 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton/ seventy-five

Shandong region/ 3125 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton/ fifty

Jiangsu region/ 3040 yuan/ton/ 3200 yuan/ton/ one hundred and sixty

Zhejiang region/ 3140 yuan/ton/ 3300 yuan/ton/ one hundred and sixty

The upstream raw material methanol market has risen strongly. As of November 30th, the average price in the domestic market was 2510.83 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 6.13% compared to the price of 2365.83 yuan/ton on November 23rd. Due to restrictions on export production and reduced supply of natural gas, the cost side is favorable for the methanol market. In some regions, there has been an increase in equipment maintenance, and inventory pressure has slightly eased. At the same time, downstream product prices have risen, and supply has been gradually replenished, with good demand support. Under multiple favorable factors, the methanol market has rebounded and risen.

The downstream acetic anhydride market first fell and then rose. As of November 30th, the factory price of acetic anhydride was 5712.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.22% compared to the price of 5700.00 yuan/ton on November 23rd. The equipment of acetic anhydride manufacturers has started to restart, the load has increased, and the supply of acetic anhydride spot market is sufficient. The downward pressure on acetic anhydride is significant, and the upstream acetic acid price has increased. The cost support for acetic anhydride has increased, and the price of acetic anhydride has stopped falling and rebounded.

In the future market forecast, the acetic acid analyst from Business Society believes that the operating load of acetic acid has decreased, manufacturers are operating at a low level of inventory, and there is a strong upward momentum. The downstream capacity utilization rate is high, and the demand for acetic acid is good. The market supply and demand support is good, and it is expected that acetic acid will operate stronger in the short term. In the future, specific attention will be paid to downstream replenishment situation.