According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices fluctuated and fell in December. The price of hydrochloric acid dropped from 125 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 112.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 10%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 35.34% year-on-year.

On December 27th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 29.61, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 78.53% from the highest point in the cycle of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 64.68% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market has experienced a significant decline this month, with low inventory from manufacturers.

Cost side: Liquid chlorine prices rise first and then fall

From a cost perspective, the upstream liquid chlorine market for hydrochloric acid experienced a significant decline in December, with an overall decrease of 250 yuan/ton. Insufficient cost support.

Demand side: Downstream demand weakens

In December, the market for polyaluminum chloride fluctuated and rose, with market prices rising from 1760 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1777.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 0.99%, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.33% at the end of the month. In December, the market situation of ammonium chloride significantly declined, with market prices dropping from 727.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 662.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 8.93%, and a year-on-year decrease of 42.14% at the end of the month. The downstream market situation has significantly declined, and downstream manufacturers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing hydrochloric acid.

Looking at the future: In mid to early January, the hydrochloric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and declines. The upstream liquid chlorine price has dropped significantly, with insufficient cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride market has experienced a significant decline, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. Analysts from Business Society believ

e that the recent market for hydrochloric acid may experience a slight fluctuation and decline.

Recently (12.18-12.27), the market for trichloromethane has slightly increased. According to data from Business Society, as of December 27th, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2070 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.50% from 2000 yuan/ton on December 18th. The price of raw material methanol fluctuates narrowly, the price of liquid chlorine continues to decline, and the cost center of trichloromethane shifts downwards; Downstream enterprises with a small amount of stock and low inventory of trichloromethane enterprises have led to a slight increase in the trichloromethane market.

Recently (12.18-12.27), domestic methane chloride production fluctuated narrowly.

Recently (12.18-12.27), the price of raw material methanol fluctuated narrowly, and the price of liquid chlorine continued to decline, resulting in weak cost support for trichloromethane. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of December 27th, the spot price of methanol was 2447 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14% from 2450 yuan/ton on December 18th, and the highest point in the cycle was 2505 yuan/ton. As of December 27th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around -100 yuan/ton, continuing to decline.

In the off-season, there is only a small amount of demand for refrigerants at the terminal. Currently, some refrigerant companies have stocked up in small quantities, supporting a slight recovery in demand for trichloromethane. However, in the medium to long term, the overall support for the demand for trichloromethane will weaken.

The methane chloride data analyst from Business Society believes that a small amount of stocking provides some support for trichloromethane, but cost support weakens, and it is expected that the trichloromethane market will narrow and consolidate in the later stage.

Overview of ethylene oxide prices in December

In December, the price of ethylene oxide remained stable. According to data from Business Society, as of December 26th, the average price of ethylene oxide in the domestic market was 6400 yuan/ton; From a regional perspective, the epoxy ethane market in East China is priced at 6400 yuan/ton externally; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the South China market is 6500 yuan/ton; The listed price of epoxy ethane in North China is 6400 yuan/ton; The listed price of epoxy ethane in the central China market is 6400 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in Northeast China is 6300-6350 yuan/ton.

Overview of the ethylene oxide industry chain

The utilization rate of the main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer production capacity has not changed much, and the demand for ethylene oxide is relatively stable. The rest of the downstream production is mainly stable, with general short-term price support.

Raw material end

The price of raw material ethylene has begun to show a weak market consolidation, and the cost of ethylene oxide is generally supported. As of December 22nd, the estimated CFR China price for ethylene in the port is around 850-860 US dollars per ton. The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia has stabilized at $850/ton, while CFR China’s price has dropped by $10/ton to $860/ton. Domestic ethylene transaction prices have fallen by 450 yuan/ton to 6800 yuan/ton. The cost pressure on ethylene oxide enterprises has slightly decreased.

Supply side

The shutdown of the Lianyungang plant has led to a tightening of supply in some areas, which has not yet affected prices.

The price of ethylene oxide may remain weakly stable in December

The demand for downstream products of ethylene oxide remains stable, and recently, ethylene oxide has been operating steadily. Next week, the Jiangsu Sirbang plant may restart, and the increment is limited nationwide. The main downstream industries have not undergone significant changes in production, with stable orders being the main focus. It is expected that the price of ethylene oxide will remain weak and stable in the short term.

Aluminum prices slightly rebounded in December

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on December 25, 2023 was 19083.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.20% compared to the aluminum price of 18673.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (December 1).

In the long term, the current price is in a sideways range after a high level decline. Since May, it has been fluctuating below 19000 yuan/ton, and by the end of August, it has exceeded 19000 yuan/ton. In September, aluminum prices first fell and then rose. In October, the center of gravity of aluminum prices fell back to around 19000 yuan/ton and fluctuated. In November, aluminum prices were weak and began to recover after mid December, returning to the front line of 19000 yuan/ton.

Overview of Fundamentals

Supply side

In the early stage, Yunnan’s electrolytic aluminum production was reduced, with an expected scale of 1.17 million tons. Recently, heavy snowfall in the northwest region has affected transportation, and at the same time, the blizzard has affected the power supply of aluminum plants, resulting in a continuous significant decline in social inventory.

In terms of new production capacity, the remaining new production capacity of Baiyinhua in Inner Mongolia has been fully electrified, but some electrolytic cell production has not yet reached capacity;

The stable operation of domestic aluminum electrolysis plants is mainly affected by blizzard and cold wave weather. The Xinjiang region strictly implements the “2023 Implementation Plan for Emergency Peak shaving and Flexible Load Adjustment of Self owned Power Plants”. Some aluminum plants in the province have experienced peak shaving and load reduction production, but the impact on production is currently relatively small.

There is a replenishment operation on the demand side

In terms of demand: Downstream demand requires replenishment operations.

Aluminum profiles: The operating rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises is around 56%, mainly due to factors such as the off-season of industry consumption, resulting in fewer subsequent orders.

Aluminum plate with foil: The average operating rate of aluminum plate and aluminum foil is above 75%,

Aluminum cables: maintain a high operating rate of around 67%.

Explicit low inventory levels

In terms of social inventory, following the start of destocking in the second half of July, inventory is relatively low. As of December 25th, the mainstream social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in China was 414000 tons, with 149000 tons of inventory removed compared to November 30th. Based on year-on-year data, it is at a low level in the same period of nearly five years.

Cost driven by alumina

The explosion at the fuel depot in the capital of Guinea has raised concerns in the market about the supply of bauxite. It is reported that Chinese alumina companies are highly dependent on Guinea’s ore, with a total of 91.104 million tons of bauxite imported from Guinea from January to November, accounting for 70.2% of the total import volume. In addition, domestically, due to the heavy pollution weather in the north, the Shandong alumina plant has been shut down for ten days. The supervision and management of mining in Shanxi region is relatively strict, and the mines in Sanmenxia area of Henan province have not yet resumed production, resulting in a shortage of ore supply in Shanxi and Henan provinces. The price of alumina is firm.

Future market forecast

The positive cost side combined with the elimination of explicit inventory is expected to have a high probability of strong aluminum price fluctuations in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 22, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6640 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 2.35% compared to the reference average price of 6800 yuan/ton on December 18.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 22, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6516 yuan/ton, which is 6783 yuan/ton compared to the reference average price on December 18. This week, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid price decreased by 3.93%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of phosphoric acid has fallen this week. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been lowered, resulting in insufficient cost support. The operating rate of phosphoric acid enterprises is stable, market demand is sluggish, and trading is weak. The company’s quotation has been lowered, and the main focus is on single negotiation, with bearish sentiment in the market. As of December 22, the factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 6800 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6100-6900 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 5500-7250 yuan/ton.

This week, the market price of yellow phosphorus continued to decline, and the overall market trading situation was relatively light. The market operating rate has decreased this week, and some yellow phosphorus enterprises have suspended external quotations. However, downstream demand is poor, with low prices for procurement. Traders and downstream buyers are less proactive, and the focus of the on-site market continues to decline. Downstream procurement is more cautious, with limited new orders and a focus on rigid demand. As of now, the market price for yellow phosphorus is around 23500 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore, the overall domestic phosphate ore market has remained stable and operational this week. The overall supply side of phosphate ore is still slightly tight, and the supply side still provides some support to the market. The overall performance of downstream demand is average, with most downstream orders being for rigid needs. As of December 22nd, the domestic price of 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1020-1080 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s phosphoric acid analyst believes that the phosphoric acid market has been continuously weakening in recent days. The market trend of raw material yellow phosphorus is declining, and the cost support for phosphoric acid is insufficient. The terminal demand is limited, the market transactions are relatively low, and the mentality of downstream and distributors is unstable. It is expected that the short-term market price of phosphoric acid will continue to decline weakly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of acetic acid dropped significantly in mid December. On December 20th, the average market price of acetic acid was 3150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton compared to the price of 3450 yuan/ton on December 11th, a decrease of 8.70%, and a decrease of 5.26% compared to the beginning of the month.

In mid December, the acetic acid market saw a broad decline, and the main factories in East China gradually recovered after an unexpected malfunction, leading to an increase in market supply. At the same time, the northern region was affected by rainy and snowy weather, transportation was restricted, and manufacturers accumulated inventory, resulting in a strong intention to clear inventory. However, downstream markets were affected by buying up and not buying down sentiment, resulting in weak purchasing sentiment, sluggish market trading, poor factory shipments, bearish sentiment among manufacturers, and a significant decrease in acetic acid prices. As of December 20th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions during the month are as follows:

In mid December, the upstream raw material methanol market fluctuated and rose. As of December 20th, the average price in the domestic market was 2488.33 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 1.91% compared to the price of 2441.67 yuan/ton on December 11th. In the early stage, the expectation of methanol imports was at a high level, which suppressed market prices to some extent. Downstream purchases were made on demand, resulting in a slight decline in overall market prices; Starting from the 13th, some areas have been affected by heavy snow weather, resulting in limited transportation, increased freight costs, slowed delivery speed, and affected social inventory in consumer areas. The circulation of methanol in the region has decreased, and downstream delivery prices have continued to rise.

The downstream acetic anhydride market has experienced a significant decline. As of December 20th, the ex factory price of acetic anhydride was 5850.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.41% compared to the price of 6387.50 yuan/ton on December 11th. Acetic anhydride manufacturers have resumed production, increased load, and sufficient supply in the acetic anhydride spot market. In addition, transportation is limited due to weather conditions, resulting in poor shipment of acetic anhydride and accumulation of inventory in enterprises. There is significant downward pressure. At the same time, upstream acetic acid prices have fallen, and the cost support for acetic anhydride is insufficient, leading to a continuous decline in acetic anhydride prices.

In the future market forecast, the acetic acid analyst from Shengyishe believes that the on-site maintenance of the acetic acid plant has resumed, the market supply has increased, and the negative impact on the supply side has affected downstream demand follow-up. Market transactions are limited, and the overall decline in the short term may weaken. However, considering that the current acetic acid price has fallen to a relatively low level, there is still a mentality of buying at a low price in the downstream. It is expected that the acetic acid market will consolidate and operate in the future, and specific attention will be paid to downstream procurement in the future.

Recent price trends of isooctanol

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province has slightly declined this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market in Shandong Province dropped from 12700.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 12650.00 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.39%, and the weekend price increased by 30.86% year-on-year. On December 18th, the isooctanol commodity index was 93.75, an increase of 0.74 points from yesterday, a decrease of 31.82% from the highest point in the cycle of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 166.71% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

Upstream support is good, while downstream demand is average

From the supply side perspective, mainstream manufacturers of Shandong isooctanol have seen fluctuations in their quotes this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market saw a slight increase this week, with prices rising from 6968.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6983.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.22%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.22% over the weekend. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, with good cost support. Due to the impact of supply and demand, it has a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the DOP market price has slightly increased this week. The price of DOP increased from 11616.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 11716.67 yuan/ton on the weekend, an increase of 0.86%, and the weekend price increased by 17.64% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices have slightly increased, and downstream customers are actively purchasing isooctanol.

Future prospects

In late December, the market for isooctanol in Shandong may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream propylene market has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream DOP market has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic Isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and increases due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China rose first and then fell this week (12.11-12.18). The average market price at the beginning of last week was 206560 yuan/ton, while the average market price at the beginning of this week was 207460 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.44%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have been continuously rising for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, prices have fallen by 11.35% in a single month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has seen more declines and less gains in recent times.

In terms of the futures market, Shanghai tin continued to fluctuate at a low level at the beginning of the week. Later, with the release of monetary easing signals from the Federal Reserve, basic metals generally strengthened, driving a slight increase in Shanghai tin. From the perspective of supply and demand, the shutdown and maintenance of large enterprises in Yunnan region during this cycle has led to a slight decline in the operating rate of domestic refined tin. According to market news, other enterprises will have maintenance plans in the near future, and the market expects a tight supply in the future. In terms of demand, when the market price was low in the early stage, downstream actively replenished inventory. Currently, the demand for replenishing inventory is slightly lower, mainly due to the digestion of factory inventory. The overall inventory quantity has increased this week. The recent changes in terminal consumption have not been significant, and the overall trend is still weak. Overall, the demand for tin ingots in the market is still weak, and it is expected that the supply and demand side will remain stable, moderate, and weak in the short term. In the future, it is still necessary to focus on inventory changes and macro factors.

On December 17th, the non-ferrous index was 1092 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.00% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 79.90% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, there were a total of 10 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that saw a month on month increase in the commodity price rise and fall list in the 50th week of 2023 (12.11-12.15). The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were silver (1.74%), dysprosium oxide (1.71%), and zinc (1.59%). There are a total of 8 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with a decline are praseodymium oxide (-2.11%), dysprosium iron alloy (-1.35%), and praseodymium neodymium oxide (-1.10%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.11%.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8090 yuan/ton on December 8th, and the average price on December 15th was 8164 yuan/ton, with a 0.92% increase in quotation during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 9107 yuan/ton on December 8th, and the average price on December 15th was 9082 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation fell by 0.27%.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8550 yuan/ton on December 8th, and the average price on December 15th was 8550 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation remained stable.

This week, the polyethylene market has seen mixed ups and downs, with narrow adjustments being the main focus. International crude oil has declined, and cost support for polyethylene has weakened. The maintenance equipment of petrochemical enterprises has decreased compared to the previous period, and the supply of polyethylene is sufficient. Agricultural films and pipes are in the off-season of demand, with limited new orders in the packaging film market and a poor transaction atmosphere. Downstream purchases are mainly based on low demand, and procurement is relatively cautious. Traders adjust their offers and have a strong willingness to sell at a discounted price.

On December 15th, the opening price of the polyethylene l2401 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 8065 yuan, and the closing price was 8126 yuan, a decrease of 73 yuan. The highest price was 8144 yuan, and the lowest was 8057 yuan, an increase of 0.91%.

The demand for polyethylene in the market is in the off-season and lacks effective positive guidance. It is expected that polyethylene may fluctuate weakly, with limited upward space.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of Yungui yellow phosphorus has decreased. Last Thursday, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 25326.67 yuan/ton, while this Thursday’s average price was 24766.67 yuan/ton. The price has decreased by 2.21% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the focus of the domestic yellow phosphorus market continued to decline, and the overall market trading situation was average. The operating rate in the downstream market has weakened, leading to a pressure on prices and a focus on demand. Yellow phosphorus enterprises are cautious in their quotations, issuing more preliminary orders, and not providing external quotations for new orders. Only one can be negotiated. The price of yellow phosphorus in the market is relatively chaotic, with both high-end and low-end prices coexisting. As of now, the mainstream quotation for Yunnan yellow phosphorus is around 24500 yuan/ton; The quotation for Guizhou yellow phosphorus is around 24500 yuan/ton, while the quotation for Sichuan yellow phosphorus is around 25000 yuan/ton.

As of December 14th, the reference price for phosphate ore was 1034 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.9% compared to December 7th (1054 yuan/ton). The overall domestic phosphate ore market is showing a slight downward trend. The downstream terminal market for phosphate ore is generally stocked, and the demand side provides limited support for phosphate ore. The phosphorus ore data analyst from the Business Society predicts that in the short term, the phosphorus ore market will mainly operate steadily with small fluctuations, and more attention needs to be paid to changes in supply and demand information.

In terms of coke, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the ex factory price of quasi first grade metallurgical coke in Shanxi last Thursday was 2328.33 yuan/ton, and the average price this Thursday was 2430 yuan/ton. The price has increased by 4.37% during the week. This week, the supply of coke in the market was tight and boosted, while the coking coal market operated strongly. The inventory of the two ports has slightly decreased, and market trading is still acceptable.

In terms of phosphoric acid, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price of phosphoric acid has decreased this week. The average price of phosphoric acid was 7020 yuan/ton last Thursday, and 6900 yuan/ton this Thursday. The price has decreased by 1.71% during the week. The market for raw material yellow phosphorus has weakened, with insufficient cost support, leading to a reduction in quotes from phosphoric acid manufacturers and distributors. The demand for phosphoric acid in the market is sluggish, with limited trading and a weak short-term trend.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe believes that the price of yellow phosphorus will continue to decrease this week, and downstream market operating rates will weaken, demand will weaken, overall market trading will be light, and the focus of the yellow phosphorus market will decline. The upstream phosphate ore market is downward, while the coke market is slightly upward, with average cost support. It is expected that the price trend of yellow phosphorus will be weak in the short term.