In November, the price of ethylene oxide decreased by 5.88%. According to data from Business Society, as of November 28th, the average price of ethylene oxide in the domestic market was 6400 yuan/ton; From a regional perspective, the epoxy ethane market in East China is priced at 6400 yuan/ton externally; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the South China market is 6500 yuan/ton; The listed price of epoxy ethane in North China is 6400-6500 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in Northeast China is 6250 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the central China market is 6500 yuan/ton.

The main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer is generally affected by terminal demand, but the recent demand is weak, which generally supports the price of ethylene oxide.

Raw material end

The price of raw material ethylene has begun to show a weak market consolidation, and the cost of ethylene oxide is generally supported. On November 27th, the central parity rate (CFR) for Northeast Asia Ethylene Gold was $861 per ton, a decrease of $20 per ton from the central parity rate of $881 per ton at the beginning of the month (November 1st).

The price of ethylene oxide may remain weakly stable in November

Short term crude oil decline, weak and stable ethylene prices, and weak cost side of ethylene oxide; The average demand for downstream products has led to a recent decline in the price of ethylene oxide. However, as profits expand towards negative values, there is an expectation of a decrease in the operating rate of ethylene oxide, and the downward space gradually narrows. It is expected that the price of ethylene oxide will remain weak and stable in the short term.

Price trend

In late November, the domestic ABS market continued to be weak, with spot prices of various brands consolidating and operating. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of November 27th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11137.50 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+0.11% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: Recently, the ABS industry has maintained a high load, with a domestic operating rate of around 75% as of the 27th, which is a narrow decrease compared to the previous period. The stable production of the enterprise, coupled with the previous production of the new equipment of Yinglishi Benling, has led to a steady increase in inventory at present. The on-site supply of goods is abundant, and the company’s loss situation continues. The supply pressure is relatively high, and there is little improvement in the dragging effect of the supply side on the spot market.

In terms of raw materials: In late November, the three upstream ABS materials showed mixed fluctuations, with the acrylonitrile market showing an upward trend. The domestic production capacity loss is relatively large, and at the same time, some devices have delayed resumption of work, leading to a tightening of market supply and increased support from the supply side. However, downstream acceptance after the rise is poor, and it is expected that the increase in acrylonitrile may be limited.

The domestic butadiene market has recently recovered after a decline. In the early stage, there was equipment maintenance in the northern region, causing a contraction in the market’s spot supply and a rebound in merchant quotations. Downstream products, including ABS, have shown weak market performance and weak demand, smoothing out favorable maintenance. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will operate sideways.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the market price of styrene gradually declined in late November. The cost support mainly comes from ethylene, and downstream demand is not strong. Although the inventory position is not high, the main ports have concentrated arrivals. The situation of empty space in the venue is complicated, and it is expected that styrene will operate in a volatile manner in the future.

In terms of demand: Downstream factories of ABS, including the main terminal home appliance industry, showed average stocking enthusiasm in late this month, with an overall focus on digesting existing inventory. The operation of enterprises tends to maintain production, making it difficult for demand to increase, and the impact on price trends is not significant.

Future Market Forecast

In late November, the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS was mixed, and overall support for the cost side of ABS was average. The petrochemical plant has maintained its early stage of operation, and supply pressure continues. The demand side consumption is poor, and merchants are often bearish about the future market. It is expected that the ABS market will struggle to overcome the supply-demand contradiction in the short term and may maintain a weak consolidation trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 24th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 7040 yuan/ton, which is 0.56% lower than the reference average price of 7080 yuan/ton on November 20th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of November 24th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6883 yuan/ton, which is 6900 yuan/ton compared to the reference average price on November 20th. This week, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid price decreased by 0.24%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of phosphoric acid has slightly decreased this week. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been lowered, and the cost support for thermal phosphoric acid is insufficient. The price of raw material phosphate ore has increased, and the cost of wet process phosphoric acid still has support. At present, the operating rate of phosphoric acid enterprises is stable, downstream purchases are made on demand, there are fewer new orders in the market, and on-site trading is poor. As of November 24th, the factory quotation for 85% industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 7100 yuan/ton, and the factory quotation for 85% industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6600-7400 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6250-7600 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore, the overall domestic phosphate ore market has shown a steady upward trend this week, with the focus of the phosphate ore market constantly moving towards the high-end. Many domestic mining enterprises, including those in Guizhou, Sichuan, and Guangxi, have raised the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate rock, with a cumulative increase of about 50-90 yuan/ton for 30% grade phosphate rock within the month. The supply of low-priced goods in phosphate ore yards is gradually decreasing, and the price difference between high and low prices is narrowing. As of November 24th, the domestic 30% grade phosphate ore market price is referenced around 1000-1100 yuan/ton, while the high-end price is referenced around 1150 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the market price of yellow phosphorus continued to decline slightly, and the overall market trading situation was relatively light. Downstream discounted procurement, some yellow phosphorus enterprises have suspended external quotations. The center of gravity of the on exchange market has slightly declined, and downstream purchases are mostly cautious, with limited new orders and a focus on demand. The market on both sides of supply and demand is relatively deadlocked, with enterprises mainly focusing on price support. As of now, the market quotation for yellow phosphorus is around 25700-26000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s phosphoric acid analyst believes that the phosphoric acid market has been weakening recently. The market for raw material yellow phosphorus is poor, and the cost support for phosphoric acid is insufficient. Coupled with weak downstream demand, the industry holds a bearish sentiment. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market prices will be mainly weak and consolidating.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average market price of acetic acid on November 19th was 3150 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price of 3150 yuan/ton on November 13th, and decreased by 11.89% compared to the previous month.

During the week, the acetic acid market remained stable on the sidelines, with average downstream demand. Purchasing in the market followed up on demand, resulting in a weak trading atmosphere. Acetic acid companies maintained rational inventory and actively shipped, resulting in low overall sales pressure and a strong market price. As of November 17th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions during the month were as follows:

Region/ November 13th/ November 17th/ Up and down

South China region/ 3125 yuan/ton/ 3125 yuan/ton/ 0

North China region/ 3075 yuan/ton/ 3075 yuan/ton/ 0

Shandong region/ 3050 yuan/ton/ 3050 yuan/ton/ 0

Jiangsu region/ 3050 yuan/ton/ 2975 yuan/ton/ -75

Zhejiang region/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 3075 yuan/ton/ -75

The upstream raw material methanol market first rose and then fell. As of November 19, the average price in the domestic market was 2490.00 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 1.19% compared to the price of 2460.83 yuan/ton on November 13. The coal price has rebounded from a decline, and the macro economy is improving, providing some support for methanol prices. Enterprises and holders have strong quotations, but downstream delivery willingness is average, delivery prices are weak, cost transmission is limited, and the methanol market is fluctuating and consolidating.

The downstream acetic anhydride market is operating weakly. As of November 19, the factory price of acetic anhydride was 5762.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.66% compared to the price of 5725.00 yuan/ton on November 13. The upstream acetic acid prices are mainly high, while the cost support for acetic anhydride still exists. The acetic anhydride market is under construction, with a decrease in spot supply and an increase in upward momentum. The prices of acetic anhydride manufacturers have increased.

In the future market forecast, acetic acid analysts from Business Society believe that the overall utilization rate of acetic acid production capacity is relatively high, the market supply is sufficient, the downstream market is weak, the purchasing enthusiasm is average, the trading atmosphere is light, and buyers are mainly bearish. From the perspective of manufacturers, there is currently no pressure on inventory and they maintain a positive shipping attitude. Many factories have a high price mentality, and the market supply and demand are in a game. There is a lack of effective benefits in the future market, and it is expected that acetic acid will remain stagnant and sorted out in the short term, Pay specific attention to downstream replenishment in the future.

Price trend

In mid November, the domestic ABS market continued to exhibit a negative pattern, with spot prices of various brands generally decreasing. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 20th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11062 yuan/ton, an increase or decrease of -0.56% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

On the supply side, the recent high load in the ABS industry has continued. As of the 20th, the domestic operating rate has increased by about 3% to 75% compared to the previous ten days. The production of the enterprise is stable, and Ineos Benzene has a new device put into operation. The total production is increasing in the middle of the year, and the inventory position is on the high side. The on-site supply of goods is abundant, and the profitability of the enterprise is poor. The drag on the spot market by the supply side has expanded, resulting in high supply pressure.

In terms of raw materials: In mid November, the three upstream ABS materials showed mixed ups and downs, with the acrylonitrile market showing a sideways trend after rising. Although the demand level is average, the expansion of domestic production capacity losses in the early stage, coupled with the delayed resumption of some devices, has reduced market supply and strengthened supply side support. Acrylonitrile Lido guidance still exists, and the price is firm.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market has been mainly flat. In the northern region, there is equipment maintenance, and port inventory has slightly decreased. There is some support for spot supply, and the performance of merchants’ quotations is strong. The external market performance is weak, and the downstream product market performance is weak. The fundamentals of the future market lack positive support, and it is expected that the domestic butadiene market may turn weak.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the styrene market price fluctuated in mid November. The international crude oil price continues to weaken, and the rise of pure benzene market is hindered. While cost support has not been realized, downstream demand is also not strong. However, the overall inventory position of styrene is still at a low level, and it is expected that the decline in the future market may fluctuate slightly.

In terms of demand: In the middle of this month, downstream factories of ABS, including the main terminal home appliance industry, have low stocking enthusiasm, and overall focus is on digesting existing inventory. The operation of enterprises tends to maintain production, making it difficult for demand to increase, causing a drag on price trends.

Future Market Forecast

In mid November, the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS was mixed, and overall support for the cost side of ABS was average. The petrochemical plant has maintained its early stage of operation, and supply pressure continues. Demand side consumption is poor, and merchants are often bearish about the future market. It is expected that the ABS market will struggle to overcome the supply-demand contradiction in the short term, or it will maintain a weak consolidation market.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 17th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 21600.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77% from the beginning of the month’s price of 21766.67 yuan/ton, and an increase of 17.18% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 17, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 27666.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60% from the beginning of the month price of 27833.33 yuan/ton, and an increase of 9.21% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall domestic hydrofluoric acid price remained stable, with raw material prices fluctuating relatively high. Downstream demand was cautious, and market supply and demand remained stable. This week, the overall domestic refrigerant R22 market price remained stable and advanced.

In November, the domestic hydrofluoric acid prices remained relatively high and stable, with high raw material costs driving the sustained high operation of domestic R134a. The overall acceptance of downstream products was poor, and overall market trading continued to be light this week. The overall domestic R134a market prices remained stable and advanced.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid has surged and slightly declined, but has remained stable. The overall cost of raw materials remains relatively high, which will provide some support for the future refrigerant market prices.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Refrigerant analysts from Business Society believe that the cost of raw materials is relatively high, downstream purchases and sales are cautious, and market trading is light. In the short term, the market prices of domestic refrigerants R22 and R134a will continue to remain stable at the current level.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China on November 6th was 3200 yuan/ton. On November 13th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 3466 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of monoammonium phosphate increased by 8.33%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China on November 6th was 3900 yuan/ton. On November 13th, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3983 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of diammonium phosphate increased by 2.14%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium phosphate has significantly increased this week. The price of raw materials such as phosphate ore and sulfur has increased, resulting in favorable cost support. At present, there is a large backlog of monoammonium phosphate factories, and the winter storage market follows up as needed, with the market operating at a high price. The market for diammonium phosphate is facing a tight supply and rising prices, with the market rising from a high level. Manufacturers and distributors are mainly reluctant to sell. As of November 13th, the factory quotation for 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei region is about 3450 yuan/ton, while the factory quotation for 55 powdered ammonium in Henan region is about 3500 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The 64% market quotation for diammonium in Shandong region is around 3950-4150 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated.

In terms of raw material sulfur. The domestic sulfur market has shown a significant upward trend this week. The sulfur refinery unit is operating normally and the market supply is stable. The downstream mentality is optimistic, and the enthusiasm for entering the market and purchasing goods has increased. Manufacturers’ shipments are smooth, inventory is reduced, and refineries are adjusting their inventory based on their own situation. As of November 13th, the reference average price of sulfur in East China is 1003.33 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore. The market price of phosphorus ore has risen this week. At present, the overall demand for phosphorus ore downstream is good, and the on-site spot circulation is still tight. As the middle of the month approaches, some mining companies with lower shipping prices in the early stages have started to raise the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate rock, with an increase of about 20-30 yuan/ton. As of November 13, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China is around 1046 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the Business Society believe that the ammonium phosphate market has surged recently due to favorable factors such as rising costs, support for pending orders, and insufficient market supply. At present, the upward trend is slowing down, and downstream and dealers are starting to watch cautiously after the continuous rise. It is expected that the short-term market price of ammonium phosphate will be relatively strong and will be sorted and operated.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the auction price of crude benzene for the week from November 3 to November 10, 2023 was lowered. Last weekend, it was 6598.75 yuan/ton, and this weekend it was 6338.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.91%.

In terms of crude oil: As of November 3rd, international crude oil futures fell. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $80.51 per barrel, a decrease of $1.95 or 2.4%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 84.89 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 1.96 US dollars or 2.3%. The supply tension caused by the situation in the Middle East has eased.

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene continued to be 7750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7600 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7603 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7600 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On November 6th, the price of pure benzene was 7903 yuan/ton, and on Friday (November 10th), the price of pure benzene was 7800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.51% from last week and an increase of 12.23% from the same period last year.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen a positive trend in recent times.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the crude oil and styrene market both weakened during the week, driving the overall weakness of the pure benzene industry chain. The pure benzene market continued to decline during the week, and the hydrogenated benzene market also fell significantly. The auction price of crude benzene also declined overall during the week, and the downstream pressure on prices was generally strong, resulting in a weak overall trend in the industrial chain.

This week, the pure benzene market continued to decline, with Sinopec lowering its listing price twice to 77500 yuan/ton, and a cumulative decrease of 3000 yuan/ton during the week. The hydrogenation benzene market has followed a significant decline, with a current execution rate of 7600-7700 yuan/ton in East China, and a decrease of 300-400 yuan/ton within the week. In terms of supply and demand, coking enterprises started slightly higher this week, and crude benzene supply slightly increased compared to the previous period. In terms of demand, hydrogenation benzene enterprises that have undergone early maintenance have started operating one after another, and the overall demand for crude benzene is still acceptable. Overall, the pure benzene market is still under pressure due to high inventory and loose supply, and the weak trend of crude oil has limited impact on the industry chain. It is expected that the overall industry chain will still be under pressure in the future, and there may be further downward space. In the future, the focus will be on inventory situation and crude oil trend.

Stable operation of ethylene glycol in November

According to data from Business News Agency, on November 10th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4141.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.28% compared to the beginning of the month. The prices in various regions are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 4000-4350 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4000 yuan/ton, while the mainstream manufacturers in Central China have a spot price range of 4000 yuan/ton; The spot price for mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4350 yuan/ton.

On November 9th, the CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was 479 US dollars/ton; The CIF Southeast Asia price is 478 US dollars/ton.

Ethylene glycol fundamentals

Downstream demand

The downstream polyester production load is relatively stable, and downstream demand remains stable. The polyester factory load is maintained around 88%, and in terms of terminals, the operating load of the loom is 80%, with a negative 1% decrease in the circumferential ratio. The operating load of the elastic loom is 89%, and the circumferential ratio remains unchanged.

High port inventory

As of November 9, 2023, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 1.1583 million tons, which is still relatively high compared to the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China on October 30, 1.143 million tons, with a cumulative inventory of 15300 tons.

Future market forecast

The reality of ethylene glycol supply and demand is loose, with high inventory, suppressing price increases. Currently, prices are low, and cost support is strong. It is expected that the probability of maintaining a volatile sideways trend in the short term will increase. The volatile range in November may slightly move up.