1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 8th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 21500.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.90% from the beginning of the month’s price of 21100.00 yuan/ton, and an increase of 19.44% from the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 8th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 24766.67 yuan/ton, an increase from the beginning of the month price of 25333.33 yuan/ton, and a decrease of 0.65% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Entering September, the prices of upstream raw materials continued to rise. As of September 8th, the prices of trichloromethane and hydrofluoric acid increased by 2.23% and 0.66% respectively. Supported by higher raw material costs, some companies have raised their R22 market prices, driving a slight rebound in domestic R22 market prices.

Entering September, the price of trichloroethylene in China has slightly increased, while the price of hydrofluoric acid has continued to rise, rising by 0.66% within the month. The cost of raw materials has continued to rise, and some enterprises have raised the factory price of R134a this week, supporting a slight rebound in domestic R134a prices.

In terms of raw materials, domestic hydrofluoric acid prices have bottomed out and continued to rise, and the rebound in raw material costs will further support domestic refrigerant prices in the future.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to refrigerant analysts from Business Society, supported by costs and demand, it is expected that the domestic prices of R22 and R134a will continue to remain stable, moderate, and strong in the short term.

This week, the price of plasticizer DOTP has dropped from a high point

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 4th, the price of DOTP was 12031 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.87% compared to the price of 12260 yuan/ton on August 28th. The price of isooctanol has decreased, PTA prices have stopped rising and stabilized, raw material cost support has weakened, downstream PVC market has stabilized, and plasticizer demand support is not there. This week, the price of plasticizer DOTP has fallen from its high point.

The high price of isooctanol has dropped this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on September 4th was 12970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54% compared to the price of 13040 yuan/ton on August 29th. The domestic isooctanol plant started slowly and restarted, the supply of isooctanol slowly recovered, and the high price of isooctanol fell.

PTA prices have stopped rising and stabilized this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the PTA price on September 4th was 6179.09 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.61% compared to the PTA price of 6081.36 yuan/ton on August 28th. Crude oil prices fluctuate and rise, PTA costs rise, PTA prices fluctuate and rise, plasticizer DOTP raw material costs rise, and the support for future DOTP increases.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that the slow recovery of isooctanol production, the fluctuating rise of isooctanol prices, PTA prices, and the cost support for plasticizer product DOTP still exist; PVC prices are stabilizing, and downstream PVC procurement enthusiasm has rebounded less than expected, resulting in insufficient support for plasticizer demand. In the future, there is still insufficient demand support for cost support, and it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOTP will fall from a high point in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of cryolite remained stable and fluctuated slightly in August. As of August 31st, the average market price in Henan Province was 7850 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price at the beginning of the month at 7850 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 2.28%.

In August, the domestic cryolite market stabilized and operated, with stable quotations from cryolite enterprises being the main focus. Upstream prices have risen within the month, leading to an increase in production costs for cryolite. However, downstream consumers are more resistant to high priced cryolite, and their enthusiasm for purchasing in the market is not high. Although cryolite manufacturers maintain rational inventory, it is difficult to increase their prices. Manufacturers negotiate shipments, and the market mentality is wait-and-see, resulting in stable cryolite prices.

On the upstream side, the domestic fluorite market continued to rise in August, and the gaming situation in the domestic fluorite industry remained low during the month. The operating rate of enterprises remained low, and it was difficult to start raw ore operations. The spot supply of fluorite was tight, and the demand side hydrofluoric acid price rose, supporting the rise of the fluorite market. The price trend of fluorite prices increased, and as of the end of the month, the average price of fluorite was 3168.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.68% compared to the price of 3056.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The downstream aluminum market fluctuated and rose in August. At the end of the month, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 19173.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.10% compared to the average market price of 18596.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In August, electrolytic aluminum inventory was relatively low, with tight spot supply and good inventory performance. At the same time, terminal market demand was relatively strong, supporting the upward trend of aluminum prices in the market.

Future Market Forecast: Cryolite enterprises maintain rational inventory, manufacturers actively ship, downstream demand is average, market trading atmosphere is weak, raw material construction continues to be low, and strong price increases are good for cryolite support. At the same time, the downstream aluminum market is also operating strongly, with cost support. It is expected that the cryolite market will continue to rise in the future, with specific attention paid to changes in manufacturers’ inventory and downstream acceptance.

1、 Price data

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 31, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 8119.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.96% compared to 8041.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month. The market of refined and hydrogenated naphtha has fluctuated and risen.

As of August 31, the mainstream factory average price of domestic refined straight-run naphtha was 7946.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.60% compared to 7899.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month. The market for locally refined straight-run naphtha fluctuated and rose.

On August 31, the naphtha commodity index was 100.20, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 17.63% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.64 points (2022-03-10), and an increase of 137.22% from the lowest point of 42.24 points on July 19, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2012 to the present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: In August, the price of refined naphtha fluctuated and increased. Currently, the mainstream price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 8100-8200 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is around 7800-8000 yuan/ton. In the first half of August, there was no significant substantial improvement in terminal performance. Refineries were actively shipping, while merchants were cautious in pursuing higher prices. There was a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and transactions were mainly on demand; In the second half of August, a small amount of demand was released in the direction of refining and reforming ethylene, and refineries were actively shipping. However, the flat trend of gasoline and diesel suppressed the naphtha market, and the market operation was cautious, with demand being the main transaction. As of the week ending August 30th, Singapore’s light distillate inventory increased by 162000 barrels, reaching its highest level in three weeks, reaching 12.928 million barrels. Singapore’s medium distillate inventory decreased by 646000 barrels to 7.989 million barrels, reaching a two-week low. Singapore’s fuel oil depot experienced a decrease of 2.184 million barrels in the current week, reaching a 6-week low of 19.915 million barrels.

Upstream: In August, crude oil emerged from a trend of rising and falling. In the first half of the year, the market continued to rise due to supply concerns and the positive trend during the peak oil consumption season. Brent crude oil topped $87 per barrel, while WTI crude oil approached $83, reaching a nearly 9-month high. Afterwards, with the deterioration of macro data, the market turned sharply downwards, and near the end of the month, the WTI fell below $80. Under the combined effect of OPEC+production control and weak economic data in oil producing countries, the supply-demand game intensifies, and the market shifts into a narrow range of fluctuations.

Downstream: In August, the toluene preliminary maintenance equipment was restarted, and the domestic disproportionation equipment started to decline. In addition, the consumption tax on mixed aromatics further separated the mixed aromatics of multiple enterprises, resulting in an increase in toluene supply. However, due to the increase in gasoline consumption in the United States, the price difference of toluene between the United States and Asia has further expanded, stimulating domestic exports and offsetting the pressure brought by the increase in domestic supply. The price of toluene continues to operate at a high level. The supply of mixed xylene continues to remain tight, providing support for the mixed xylene market. The downstream market has not changed much, and the overall demand for PX is good. Merchants have a strong willingness to stand up for prices, and the PX market price is strong in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts from Business Society believe that the current slight increase in international crude oil has resulted in weak guidance for the local refined naphtha market; At present, the local refining naphtha market has sufficient supply, with a small amount of ethylene cracking in the terminal direction that needs to be released. Refineries are actively shipping, but the terminal benefits are limited, and market operations are cautious. It is expected that the local refining naphtha market will be mainly consolidated in the near future.