1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5600 yuan/ton on September 18th. On September 22nd, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5733 yuan/ton, and the price of chlorinated paraffin 52 increased by 2.38% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of chlorinated paraffin has increased this week. This week, the price of raw material liquid wax increased, while the price of raw material liquid chlorine first fell and then rose, resulting in increased cost support. Downstream on-demand procurement, procurement needs are cautious, and market transactions are average. Due to the continuous high prices of raw material liquid wax, most chlorinated paraffin manufacturers have raised their prices. As of September 22nd, the factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui region is about 6100 yuan/ton, while the factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong region is about 5300-5900 yuan/ton, which is a national standard.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax continued to rise this week, and liquid wax fluctuated with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine has fluctuated this week, and the market situation is unstable, with consolidation and operation being the main focus.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society’s chlorinated paraffin industry believe that the recent trend in raw material prices has been positive, but terminal demand support is limited, and the chlorinated paraffin industry is operating cautiously. It is expected that the short-term price consolidation of chlorinated paraffin will be the main focus, and it is recommended to pay attention to changes in the raw material market.

The price trend of domestic fluorite continues to rise, with an average price of 3375 yuan/ton as of the 21st, an increase of 0.75% compared to the price of 3350 yuan/ton on the 15th, and a year-on-year increase of 21.35%.

Supply side: Difficulty in starting raw ore production, shortage of fluorite in stock

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises remains low. The main reason is that upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be phased out, new mines will be added, and mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and some mines are undergoing safety hazard inspections. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has restricted the operation of fluorite enterprises, As a result, it is difficult for fluorite flotation enterprises to improve their operations, and the spot price of fluorite is very tight. The spot price remains at a high level during negotiations, which has affected the continuous rise of fluorite market prices.

On the demand side: The hydrofluoric acid market is rising, and the refrigerant market is rising

The price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid has increased, and the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid in various regions has been negotiated to increase to 10200-10600 yuan/ton. Recently, some devices are still in shutdown, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has not changed much. The order situation of manufacturers’ hydrofluoric acid is relatively normal, and the sulfuric acid market price is at a high level. This has affected the market price of hydrofluoric acid, which to some extent supports the market price of fluorite. In addition, the approaching winter storage, Some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers have started stocking raw materials, resulting in a slight increase in the fluorite market.

The market trend of downstream refrigerant products in the terminal market has increased, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has not changed much. The load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, and downstream procurement needs to follow up. Some enterprises have absorbed quotas in advance, and the monthly average quantity of remaining quotas is relatively small. The price trend of R22 has increased. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, and the price of R134a is rising. Some companies have a strong reluctance to sell, and there is currently no mentality to sell low-priced orders. Some businesses have seen price trends rise. Currently, costs are firm, and the reluctance of companies to sell is escalating. The current market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 26000 to 28000 yuan/ton. Supply and cost factors have driven refrigerant companies to have a clear intention to raise prices, and export orders have rebounded. The transmission of the industrial chain is smooth, The cost boost slightly highlights the profit margin of enterprises, which is beneficial for supporting the upward trend of refrigerant market and to some extent, is beneficial for the domestic fluorite market price.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material in modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in fields such as national defense and nuclear industry, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor industries, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market has risen.

Future Market Forecast: It is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines in the near future, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. In addition, the trend of the hydrofluoric acid market is rising, and hydrofluoric acid companies hold an optimistic attitude towards the later stage. The refrigerant market trend is rising, and in the later stage, as the temperature decreases, the start of fluorite production in the north will decline. At that time, the tight spot situation will intensify. Business Society analyst Chen Ling believes that fluorite prices in the later stage

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of September 20th, the price of high-quality power type lithium iron phosphate was 75000 yuan/ton, which is mainly stable compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price is around 75000 yuan/ton, mainly for contract customers, and new orders are not accepted.

This week, the stable operation of lithium iron phosphate is the main focus. Last week, the price for the same period was 75000 yuan/ton. Currently, the mainstream price is around 75000 yuan/ton, and the overall market is weak and downward. Downstream replenishment is on demand, while upstream lithium carbonate is stable and weak. The cost support for lithium iron phosphate is weak. In the short term, lithium carbonate will maintain its previous trend, and manufacturers will only supply old customers with goods, while new customers will not take orders.

Chemical Commodity Index: On September 18th, the chemical index stood at 969 points, an increase of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 30.79% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 62.04% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Analysts from Business Society believe that the lithium iron phosphate market will operate steadily and weakly in the short term.

Price trend

In mid September, the domestic POM market continued to show a positive trend, with spot prices continuing to rise. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 19th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 15050 yuan/ton, a decrease of+3.97% compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of the Business Society, the formaldehyde market price in Shandong region has recently fallen and then moved sideways. On market trading tends to be light, and the price of raw material methanol shows a downward trend. Weak demand combined with declining cost support is expected to lead to a decline in formaldehyde prices in Shandong in the near future.

On the supply side:

In mid September, the maintenance and resumption of POM devices in China were mutually reinforcing, with an overall decline in operating rates and a decrease in industry load to below 73%. In terms of supply, current inventory continues to be low, and most enterprises have no inventory pressure, even experiencing negative inventory oversold. However, the profitability of enterprises has recently shrunk, and the overall level of POM supply support is still acceptable.

In terms of demand:

At present, the operating level of downstream POM enterprises in China is not high, and they are stimulated by tight supply of goods. In the early stage, the enthusiasm of enterprises to stock up is still good. However, recently, the acceptance of POM prices by buyers has decreased, and order transactions have shrunk. The situation of on-site trading has significantly weakened compared to the previous stage. Overall, the demand side’s support level for POM spot prices has declined.

Future Market Forecast

In mid September, the POM market strengthened after rising. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants continues to decline, and the supply of goods on site remains tight. The industry’s inventory pressure is relatively low, and the supplier’s support for spot goods is still acceptable. On the demand side, the operating rate of terminal enterprises is maintained, and market chasing operations are reduced. Downstream users are gradually resisting high priced sources of goods. Traders have increased their actual orders and covert shipments. At present, the supplier advantage is still strong, but in the short term, the stocking sentiment is cautious and there is an expectation of increased supply in the industry. It is expected that the POM market may enter a volatile consolidation market in the future.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, sulfur prices in East China have significantly decreased this week. On September 17th, sulfur prices were at 1090 yuan/ton, and at the beginning of the week, sulfur prices were at 1160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.03%, a decrease of 3.25% compared to the beginning of the month.

The sulfur market in East China is weak, and prices have significantly decreased. The demand for phosphate fertilizer in the end market is gradually stabilizing, and downstream demand is slowing down. The demand for sulfur is mainly based on demand. The supply of refinery goods is normal, but the shipment of enterprises is not good. Affected by the increase in port inventory, manufacturers in Shandong region are hindered in shipping. In order to alleviate inventory reduction, refinery prices are constantly decreasing. As of the 15th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in Shandong refineries is around 1080-1120 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur ranges from 1050 to 1210 yuan/ton.

Downstream market of the industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid price has slightly increased. On September 17th, the average domestic sulfuric acid price was 310 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.31% compared to the beginning of the week price of 306 yuan/ton. The demand for phosphate fertilizer has weakened, the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is average, and the support for sulfuric acid demand is insufficient. Acid companies have no pressure on inventory and are actively shipping. During the week, mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers have seen price fluctuations based on their own inventory situation, while upstream prices have fallen, and cost support is insufficient. The sulfuric acid market is mainly consolidation.

The high market price of monoammonium phosphate remained stable. On September 17th, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3100 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the week, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3100 yuan/ton, and the price remained stable during the week. The demand in the phosphate fertilizer market is stabilizing, with a decrease in new orders for monoammonium phosphate. Holders are actively shipping, and the market trading atmosphere has weakened. With the support of pending orders from manufacturers, the focus of monoammonium phosphate factory trading is temporarily stable.

Future Market Forecast

Business Society sulfur analysts believe that the operation of sulfur refining plants is normal, the market supply of goods is stable, and port resources are constantly increasing. The market supply is relatively sufficient, and the downstream phosphate fertilizer market is slowing down. The enthusiasm for entering the market is weakened, and demand support is limited. From the perspective of supply and demand, it is expected that the short-term sulfur market will narrow and operate. In the future, specific attention will be paid to the downstream follow-up situation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of toluene slightly increased this week (September 11th to September 17th). On September 17th, the benchmark price of toluene was 8340 yuan/ton, while on September 11th, the benchmark price was 8240 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.21%.

Strong cost support for WTI crude oil exceeding $90 for toluene

International crude oil futures rose significantly. On September 14th, the settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $90.16 per barrel, an increase of $1.64 or 1.9%. This year, WTI reached the $90 level for the first time, reaching a new high since November 2022. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $93.70 per barrel, an increase of $1.82 or 2.0%. The main reason is that the expectation of supply tightening has overshadowed concerns about slowing economic growth and increasing US inventory.

Product oil prices continue to rise, and demand forms support for toluene

Recently, some merchants have a decent restocking mentality, and their main outsourcing has increased. Refinery inventory has remained low. As the temperature drops and summer vacation ends, there has been a certain decrease in private car travel. However, with the support of the upcoming Double Festival, some manufacturers may stock up in advance. In addition, the cost side still has support, and the gasoline market remains at a high level.

Recently, the price trend of the diesel market has been relatively strong. On the one hand, crude oil cost support still exists, which is beneficial for the domestic refined oil market. On the other hand, the third batch of export quotas for Chinese refined oil has finally been implemented, further loosening the control of domestic refined oil exports. Under the stimulation of high profits, the enthusiasm of finished oil export units has increased, especially in the case of diesel or additional demand. Finally, the high temperature weather gradually subsided, and the workload of outdoor infrastructure projects and other industries gradually increased. In addition, with the end of the fishing season, diesel demand slowly recovered, and an increase in demand still provides support for the domestic diesel market. The price increase in the domestic diesel market is the main factor.

Downstream PX construction continues with 7 pairs of toluene having rigid support

The domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 70%. However, during the maintenance of some paraxylene units, spot supply is relatively normal, and PX external prices have risen due to the rise in crude oil. As of the 14th, the closing prices in Asia were 1123-1125 yuan/ton FOB Korea and 1148-1150 USD/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has been mainly fluctuating. Overall, the operating rate of xylene devices in the Asian region is around 70%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has not changed much, and due to the rise in crude oil prices, the domestic xylene market price has risen.

Future forecast: International crude oil prices have surged again, with support for the cost of toluene; Downstream products such as toluene and PX have a strong demand for support for toluene. Although downstream gas purchases may be slightly insufficient as toluene prices rise, supplier prices are firm. Overall, it is expected that the toluene market will operate at a high level in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the spot price of PVC carbide SG5 has decreased this week. On September 8th last Friday, the average domestic PVC price was 6376 yuan/ton, and on September 14th this Thursday, the average price was 6310 yuan/ton, with a weekly price drop of 1.04%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic spot market price of PVC fell. The upstream calcium carbide market prices have temporarily stabilized and consolidated, and the futures market continues to weaken. The confidence in the PVC spot market is unstable, and prices have significantly decreased. Downstream market demand is weak, market inquiries are increasing, and purchasing goods is cautious. The downstream point price transaction is acceptable, with pre holiday restocking being the main focus, and the overall transaction atmosphere is still not good. As of now, the quotation range for PVC5 carbide materials in China is mostly around 6050-6450 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures closed slightly lower on September 13th. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $88.52 per barrel, a decrease of $0.32 or 0.4%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $91.88 per barrel, a decrease of $0.18 or 0.2%. No unexpected increase in crude oil inventory has brought pressure on oil prices.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by the Business Society, the prices of calcium carbide manufacturers have temporarily stabilized and sorted out this week. The average price of calcium carbide during the week is 3350 yuan/ton. Upstream orchid charcoal prices are stable and relatively strong, with acceptable cost support. Downstream demand is average, and the market maintains a stable trend. It is expected that the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region will be mainly sorted and operated in the future.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts from Business Society believe that the trading atmosphere in the PVC spot market this week is not good. Upstream calcium carbide prices have temporarily stabilized, while futures prices have declined, suppressing confidence in the spot market. As the National Day holiday approaches, replenishing inventory before downstream festivals may bring certain benefits. It is expected that the PVC market will fluctuate in the short term and closely monitor changes in the news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, from September 6th to 13th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol at East China ports in the domestic methanol market dropped from 2540 yuan/ton to 2491 yuan/ton. During the cycle, prices decreased by 1.93%, with a month on month increase of 4.66% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.60%. The methanol futures market has retreated from a high level, and the sentiment in the spot market has weakened. Traders have been cautious in their operations, slowing down the speed of methanol pickup, increasing inventory of production enterprises, and manufacturers selling at inflated prices. The market is stagnant, and the domestic methanol market is fluctuating and consolidating.

As of the close on September 13th, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange closed lower. The main methanol futures contract 2401 opened at 2577 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 2596 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2520 yuan/ton. It closed at 2525 yuan/ton in the end of the day, a decrease of 35% or 0.04% compared to the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume was 1647833 lots, the position was 1216986 lots, and the daily increase was 207 lots.

On the cost side, in the off-season of agricultural demand on the demand side, cautious procurement is the main focus for industrial demand. In the short term, the price of chemical coal may continue to fluctuate in a narrow range. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the demand side, downstream dimethyl ether: the demand for dimethyl ether has decreased; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand may increase slightly; Formaldehyde: As the daily production of the device increases, the demand for formaldehyde may increase; Downstream acetic acid: demand for acetic acid may increase; The change in chloride is not significant. The demand for methanol is mixed.

On the supply side, the overall recovery is greater than the loss, leading to an increase in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is negatively affected.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on September 12th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $329.25-330.25 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 75.00-77.00 cents per gallon, up 1 cent per gallon; The FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 228.00-230.00 euros/ton, a decrease of 2 euros/ton.

In the future market forecast, costs are relatively weak, and there are breakthroughs in pre holiday stocking in terms of supply and demand by netizens. Methanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic methanol market is mainly characterized by high volatility.

Price trend

In early September, the domestic ABS market saw a significant increase, with spot prices increasing. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 12th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11625 yuan/ton, a+7.14% increase or decrease compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: The ABS industry has recently experienced a high load, with a total operating rate of around 92%, which is almost unchanged compared to the previous period. The on-site supply of goods is generally abundant. The inventory position has significantly decreased, with around 160000 tons as of the end of last week. The supply side has increased its support for the spot market.

In terms of raw materials, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials was strong in early September. The acrylonitrile market remained stable after rising. The narrow consolidation of propylene prices still provides cost support for acrylonitrile; Downstream construction started slightly lower; The operation of the acrylonitrile unit has been basically stable, and the price of acrylonitrile has remained stable after rising.

The price of butadiene rose again in the early days. Encouraged by news from the downstream synthetic rubber market, merchants have shown a high sentiment in their offers, coupled with the continuous increase in Sinopec’s supply prices, leading to a rapid upward trend in the domestic butadiene market. At present, the spot resources in the butadiene market are relatively abundant, and some high priced transactions are not smooth, suppressing the market’s upward trend.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the styrene market has been improving recently and has been undergoing consolidation. The reason for the early rise was due to the continuous maintenance of devices, low styrene inventory, and a rising market. Recently, international oil prices have risen, and cost support has maintained a good level, while the styrene market has also risen. The market has risen to a high level, which has affected downstream willingness to receive goods, causing styrene to stagnate. However, the industry fundamentals are solid, and the mindset of the industry is biased. It is expected that the styrene spot market will continue to rise slightly in the short term.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream factories, including the main terminal appliance industry, have shown a significant increase in stocking enthusiasm. Under the traditional demand peak season market, coupled with macroeconomic improvement, buyers have a certain upward mentality. After the price increase of ABS, the acceptance level of manufacturers has slightly decreased, and the current procurement operation is slightly cautious. The overall trading trend remains hot.

 
Future Market Forecast

In early September, the upstream three materials of ABS strengthened, providing strong support for the cost side of ABS. Petrochemical plants have started construction at a high level, with smooth shipments and significant market inventory digestion. The demand side support has strengthened, and the trading volume has fully entered the traditional peak season level of “Golden Nine Silver Ten”. However, the increase in spot prices may affect the willingness of terminals to receive goods, and it is expected that the ABS market may continue to operate at a high level in the short term.

Price trend

In early September, the domestic POM market continued to show a positive trend, with spot prices continuing to rise. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 11th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 14875 yuan/ton, a decrease of+2.76% compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of the Business Society, the formaldehyde market prices in Shandong region have been fluctuating and consolidating recently. There is a downward trend in the price of raw material methanol, but formaldehyde did not keep up with the increase in methanol in the early stage, and the price is still at a low level. The downward trend is not obvious this time, and the market trading sentiment is average. Formaldehyde manufacturers ship normally, and the market fluctuation is not significant.

On the supply side:

Due to frequent maintenance, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has continued to decline recently, and the industry load has decreased to around 77%. In terms of supply, current inventory continues to be low, and most enterprises have no inventory pressure, even experiencing negative inventory oversold. However, some production capacity is expected to return to work in the near future, and POM supply support remains generally strong.

In terms of demand:

At present, the operating level of downstream POM enterprises in China is not high, and they are stimulated by the tight supply of goods. In the early stage, the enthusiasm of enterprises to stock up is still good, and the transaction position of orders is high. However, due to the decrease in price acceptance after the rise of POM recently, the trading situation on the market has weakened. Overall, the level of spot price support for POM on the demand side has declined.

Future Market Forecast

The POM market continued to rise in early September. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants is still declining, and the shortage of goods on site is worsening. There is currently no industry inventory pressure, and suppliers have strong support for spot goods. On the demand side, the operating rate of terminal enterprises is maintained, and market chasing operations are reduced. Downstream users are gradually resisting high priced sources of goods. Some traders have flexible profit margins for shipping, dragging the average price level. Although there is strong short-term supply side benefits, it is expected that the POM market may enter a volatile consolidation market in the future.