Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price trend of cryolite in Henan region is stable. On August 7th, the average market price in Henan region was 7825 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared to the average price of 7850 yuan/ton on August 1st, a decrease of 0.32%.

quotations analysis

The price of cryolite has slightly decreased, and the manufacturer’s quotation has remained stable with little movement. The upstream construction of cryolite remains unchanged, and raw material prices have decreased. The pressure on production costs of cryolite has slightly weakened. Manufacturers maintain rational inventory and actively ship. Downstream, they follow up on the purchase of high cryolite as needed. Some manufacturers adjust their prices slightly based on their own shipment situation, and the cryolite market is negotiated for operation. As of August 7th, the factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8600 yuan/ton; The factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7200-8900 yuan/ton.

The upstream fluorite market continues to remain stable, with an average market price of 3056.25 yuan/ton as of August 7th, which is unchanged from the price of 3056.25 yuan/ton as of August 1st. The current situation of the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and the operating rate of enterprises is maintained, with normal spot supply. Mining enterprises are facing safety and environmental requirements, making it difficult to improve the operation of fluorite mines. The shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises, and downstream enterprises have serious resistance to high priced raw materials, The price trend of fluorite is mainly weak and stable.

The downstream aluminum market is fluctuating and declining. On August 7th, the aluminum price was around 18506.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.48% compared to the price of 18596.67 yuan/ton on August 1st. In the off-season of downstream consumption, the operating rate is low, the overall demand is limited, the market trading atmosphere is average, and the situation of destocking is not ideal. The aluminum price trend is consolidating and declining, and there is insufficient support for cryolite.

Future Market Forecast

The start of raw material production is maintained, with acceptable upstream support. Cryolite enterprises maintain active shipments, while downstream parties follow up as needed. The overall market trading atmosphere is average, and there is a stalemate between supply and demand on the market. It is expected that the cryolite market will consolidate and operate in the future, and specific attention will be paid to changes in manufacturer inventory in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 2616 yuan/ton as of July 31st. On August 4th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 2733 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of monoammonium phosphate increased by 4.46%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3687 yuan/ton as of July 31st. On August 4th, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3687 yuan/ton, and the market price of diammonium phosphate remained stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

Ammonium prices rose this Monday, while ammonium prices remained stable. The price of raw material sulfur has increased, and cost support is positive. Due to the continuous increase in costs and the support of pending orders, most ammonium nitrate manufacturers have suspended their quotations and stopped receiving orders, leading to a continuous increase in ammonium nitrate prices. The supply of ammonium bicarbonate in the market is tight, with dealers being mainly reluctant to sell, resulting in tight supply and a strong market situation. As of August 4th, the market price for 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei region is around 2800 yuan/ton, while the market price for 55 powdered ammonium in Henan region is around 2750-2850 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The quotation for 64% diammonium in Shandong region is around 3550-3650 yuan/ton, while the quotation for 57% diammonium in Shandong region is around 2800-2900 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

In terms of raw material sulfur, the domestic sulfur price has increased slightly this week. The sulfur manufacturer’s device is operating normally, the market supply is stable, and the manufacturer is actively shipping. The demand for downstream phosphate fertilizer has increased, and the sulfur market has a positive attitude, with manufacturers showing an increasing willingness to negotiate prices. Downstream procurement is active, and enterprise shipments are smooth. The short-term sulfur price has significantly increased.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the Business Society believe that the ammonium phosphate market has shown a good trend in recent days, with manufacturers mainly waiting to place orders, and the current market supply is relatively low. Dealers have a clear reluctance to sell, and downstream demand has increased in the autumn. Under favorable factors, it is expected that the price of ammonium phosphate will rise slightly in the short term.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of August 4, 2023, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was 12900 yuan/ton. Compared with July 31 (organic silicon DMC reference 13020 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.92%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (7.31-8.04), the domestic organic silicon DMC market as a whole showed a slight weak decline. At the beginning of the week, the organic silicon DMC market was operating steadily, with average downstream demand and a quiet trading atmosphere on the market. In the middle of the week, Shandong large factory lowered the price of organic silicon DMC by 200 yuan/ton, and the low price of organic silicon DMC on the market dropped to 12600 yuan/ton. Other factories and suppliers also slightly reduced prices with the large factory, The downward adjustment range is around 100-200 yuan/ton. As of August 4th, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC is around 12600-13200 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the Future Trend of Organic Silicon DMC Market

At present, the trading atmosphere of organic silicon DMC on the market is relatively light, with average downstream stocking and more negotiations for transactions. The supply and demand transmission is still relatively slow. The organic silicon DMC data analyst at the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market is mainly subject to narrow adjustment and operation, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

Price trend

In July, the domestic PA6 market strengthened, with many spot prices rising. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of August 1st, the average factory price of PA6 in China was 14000 yuan/ton, a decrease of+4.87% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

It can be seen from the figure above that the price of Caprolactam market rose strongly last month. In terms of cost, due to the rise of crude oil, the price of pure benzene remained positive, and the support for Caprolactam continued to grow. The supply of Caprolactam is tight in the second half of the month, the downstream polymerization enterprises start steadily, and the procurement just needs support. It is expected that Caprolactam will continue to operate stably.

On the supply side:

In July, the load of PA6 production enterprises remained generally stable, with an average operating rate of around 74% in China. In the second half of the month, market supply began to gradually decrease, inventory positions decreased, supplier support for spot goods increased, and factory pricing increased.

In terms of demand: Downstream, the load of the weaving and spinning industries has basically adjusted slightly within the month, and the overall load position is still stable. Stimulated by a decrease in supply and a strengthening of raw materials in the second half of the month, actual trading has improved. There is an atmosphere of speculation in the market, with buying up rather than falling. The overall atmosphere of stock preparation on the market has rebounded, and overall support for the demand side of PA6 chips is still acceptable.

Future Market Forecast

The PA6 market strengthened in July. The load of domestic polymerization plants is stable, and the production is stable and abundant, but the supply of goods is gradually being digested. In terms of demand, it is acceptable, and downstream stocking enthusiasm has improved. The price of Caprolactam strengthened, and the support of PA6 cost side increased. It is expected that the PA6 market may continue to be strong in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business agency, the market of Aluminium chlorohydrate fluctuated slightly in July. On January 1, China’s solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) Aluminium chlorohydrate market mainly reported about 1721 yuan/ton, and on December 31, the market mainly reported about 1718 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 0.15%; The highest price point for this month was 1725 yuan/ton on July 13th, and the lowest price was 1712 yuan/ton on July 10th, with a maximum amplitude of 0.73%. Recently, water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas have had normal production, sufficient market inventory, and little improvement in downstream procurement demand, making it difficult to make actual transactions; The price of raw hydrochloric acid changed slightly this month. The periodic rise of hydrochloric acid in Henan, the main production area, led to a slight rise in the market of Aluminium chlorohydrate, but the duration was short. The monthly market of Aluminium chlorohydrate did not rise continuously.

As shown in the figure, at the beginning of the third quarter of 2023, the domestic market of Aluminium chlorohydrate showed a slight upward trend in July, especially in the first ten days of the year, but the market support in the middle and last ten days was weak and fell back near the mainstream price at the end of last month.

Raw Material Hydrochloric Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price first rose and then fell in July, with the price rising from 173 yuan/ton to 179 yuan/ton, and then falling again to around 173.6 yuan/ton. In the middle of the year, the price rise of hydrochloric acid in Henan, the main production area of water treatment in China, led to an increase in the market of Aluminium chlorohydrate. After all, the demand did not follow up significantly. In the later period, the price of hydrochloric acid fell, and the market of Aluminium chlorohydrate fell. The upstream support and downstream procurement willingness for hydrochloric acid are weak, and it is expected that the hydrochloric acid market may fluctuate slightly in mid to early August.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic liquefied natural gas market fluctuated and fell in July: as of July 31st, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China was 3678 yuan/ton, a significant drop of 14.39% compared to the average price of 4296 yuan/ton on July 1st. Due to market inventory exclusion and poor demand during the off-season, there is currently no positive factor supporting liquefied natural gas. There is a strong bearish sentiment in the industry, and liquid plants are often reducing prices. It is expected that domestic prices will be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the bidding results of raw gas.

Future forecast: The rising price of raw hydrochloric acid in this month has led to a slight increase in Aluminium chlorohydrate, but the market of fuel liquefied natural gas has fallen sharply, and Aluminium chlorohydrate has unstable support. On the supply side, China’s Aluminium chlorohydrate manufacturers are in normal production and have sufficient inventory; However, there has been no significant improvement on the demand side. As for the future market, the analysis believes that the Aluminium chlorohydrate market is expected to be mainly stable, supplemented by small shocks.