1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 29th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 20433.33 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.33% compared to the beginning of the month and an increase of 20.20% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 29th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 24933.33 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.93% compared to the beginning of the month price of 25166.67 yuan/ton, and an increase of 16.88% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In June, the price of upstream raw material trichloromethane continued to decline weakly, falling 10.99% in the month. The price of hydrofluoric acid continued to run at a weak bottom, falling 0.29% in the month. The price of raw materials continued to decline in the month. Supported by the demand of refrigerant in the summer peak season, the overall price mentality of manufacturers was strong. The offer price in June was temporarily stable. At the end of the month, some enterprises slightly reduced the ex factory price. The price of R22 market was stable and weak.

As of June 29, the domestic Trichloroethylene price continued to operate at a low level, while the hydrofluoric acid price continued to operate at a weak bottom, falling 0.29% in the month. The upstream raw material price was generally stable and weak. Supported by the high demand season for refrigerants in summer, the manufacturers had a strong price mentality, and the price of refrigerant R134a at the beginning of the month was generally stable. Affected by lower than expected downstream demand, some manufacturers have slightly lowered the factory price of R134a in the middle of the year, driving the stable and weak operation of domestic refrigerant R134a prices.

Overall, the current domestic price of hydrofluoric acid is still at a relatively low level, and the sustained low and weak operation of hydrofluoric acid prices will further suppress the domestic refrigerant market prices in the future.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Refrigerant analysts from Business Society believe that with the significant increase in domestic temperatures, the possibility of El Ni ñ o recurrence continues to increase, and the domestic refrigerant industry as a whole will enter the production off-season and demand peak season. At the same time, the continuous decline in upstream raw material costs will also have a strong pressure on the future refrigerant market prices. The supply and demand game in the domestic refrigerant market is constantly intensifying, and in July, the domestic R22 and R134a prices will be mainly under pressure and operating.

Overview of 441 # Silicon Price Trend

In June, the monthly decline of metal silicon was 460 yuan/ton. After experiencing a deep decline throughout May, the decline narrowed, but the price remained at a low level. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of the 28th, the national quotation for metal silicon was 13710 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.25% compared to the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, metal silicon operated weakly and steadily. By June 8th, silicon prices had loosened, and supply expectations had increased. Silicon companies in the southwest region had improved their operating conditions, suppressing the continued downward trend of silicon prices. On June 19, there was a change in the opening of the futures market. It was said that the large northern factories had significantly reduced their output, which should cause panic in the market, but it did not have a significant impact on the Spot market for the time being. However, there has been a response from Hesheng Silicon Industry, which plans to gradually shut down furnaces for maintenance, resulting in a brief rebound in metal silicon. But the market is sluggish, transactions are weak, and prices remain weak and stable.

Market analysis

On the supply side

At present, the electricity price has started to settle in June, and the Sichuan region has implemented the electricity price during the high water period, with a price of 0.35-0.38 yuan/kWh. The electricity price in the Sichuan region has decreased. The production profits of the Southwest production area are sometimes restored, and the enthusiasm for resuming production has increased, but the speed of resuming production is relatively slow. Large factories in northern production areas are planning to gradually shut down their boilers for maintenance, with a strong willingness to reduce production. Overall, the disturbance at the supply end of metallic silicon is limited, making it difficult for production to significantly decrease.

Inventory aspect

As of June 25th, the total inventory of metal silicon in the three regions was 146000 tons, a decrease of 4000 tons compared to the end of last month, or 71.8% year-on-year. This month, Kunming Port experienced a significant decline, with a decrease of 6000 tons within the month. Some factory inventory continued to be transferred to delivery warehouses. The inventory changes are mainly caused by inventory transfer, and the actual downstream digestion and destocking quantity is limited.

In terms of demand

In June, the polycrystalline silicon market continuously bottomed out, and the price was significantly reduced to 88333.33 yuan/10000 tons. Polycrystalline silicon itself is in a state of oversupply, operating at a high operating rate of 86%, continuously suppressing prices. The weak prices of silicon materials and silicon wafers have led to some enterprises being forced to undergo maintenance. In the short term, the construction of silicon materials and silicon wafers will be lowered, and the support for metal silicon prices may weaken.

In June, the silicone DMC market saw a slight decline, with domestic silicone DMC market prices referencing around 14000-14300 yuan/ton as of June 26th, a decrease of 1.26% during the month; The current quotation for aluminum alloy ADC12 is 18400 yuan/ton. The trading atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market has always been light, with the aluminum alloy industry’s main downstream automotive and construction industries in the off-season, and the demand for metallic silicon in both industries continues to be weak.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the current supply of metal silicon is expected to decrease compared to the previous period, with a slight decline in inventory. However, the continued weakness on the demand side is not enough to support a sustained rebound in metal silicon prices. It is expected that the short-term silicon price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the range.

Acetic anhydride prices plummeted significantly in June

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 27th, the price of acetic anhydride was 5000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.19% compared to the price of 5387.50 yuan/ton on June 1st at the beginning of the month. In June, acetic anhydride enterprises started operating normally, with sufficient supply of acetic anhydride. The price of raw material acetic acid decreased, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased, and the price of acetic anhydride fluctuated and fell.

Acetic acid prices fluctuated and fell in June

According to the market analysis system of acetic acid products in the Business Society, as of June 27th, the price of acetic acid was 2866.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.88% compared to June 1st, which was 3216.67 yuan/ton. Acetic acid enterprises have resumed operations, and in 2023, the export volume of acetic acid has increased significantly. The export volume of glacial acetic acid is relatively stable, and the demand for acetic acid is stable. The price of acetic acid has significantly decreased, and the cost of acetic anhydride has decreased. The downward pressure on acetic anhydride in the future is increasing.

Statistics and Market of Acetic Anhydride Export Volume

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, the export volume of acetic anhydride in May 2023 was 285940 kilograms, and the export volume from January to May was 5331080 kilograms. From the monthly trend chart, it can be seen that the export volume of acetic anhydride increased in the first quarter, while the export volume of acetic anhydride decreased significantly in April and May. The decline in exports has led to insufficient demand for acetic anhydride, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride has increased.

Future prospects

Analysts from Business Society’s acetic anhydride data believe that in June, acetic anhydride enterprises started operating normally and the supply of acetic anhydride was sufficient; The price of acetic acid has plummeted, and the cost of acetic anhydride has decreased; The export volume has significantly decreased, the demand for acetic anhydride has decreased, and downstream demand remains weak. The purchasing enthusiasm of acetic anhydride customers is poor, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride has increased. Overall, the cost of acetic anhydride has decreased due to oversupply, and it is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the price monitoring data of Business Society, as of June 26, 2023, the reference price of domestic n-propanol was 7800 yuan/ton. Compared with June 1, 2023 (reference price of n-propanol was 7950 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.89%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that since June (6.1-6.26), the overall domestic n-propanol market has shown a slight fluctuation and decline. In early June, the n-propanol market saw mixed fluctuations. At the beginning of the month, some n-propanol suppliers raised prices narrowly, driving the market up slightly. However, Shandong large factories lowered the n-propanol price, causing the overall market to fluctuate and decline. As of June 15th, the domestic Shandong n-propanol market price reference was around 7200-7600 yuan/ton.

In late June, the domestic n-propanol market was generally weak and moving downwards. The downstream demand for n-propanol is average, and new orders on the market are cautious. Some n-propanol suppliers have lowered the price of n-propanol narrowly by around 100-200 yuan/ton. As of June 26, the domestic market price of n-propanol in Shandong region is referenced around 7000-7600 yuan/ton, and the high price is referenced around 7800 yuan/ton. The n-propanol market in Nanjing region is relatively stable, with the n-propanol market price referenced around 8800 yuan/ton. Distributors in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of the Future Market Trend of n-propanol

Towards the end of the month, the trading atmosphere in the n-propanol market is quiet, and there is little change in the supply and demand information on the market. The n-propanol data analyst of the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mainly adjust and operate in multiple intervals, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand information.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 23, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 20500.00 yuan/ton, which is generally the same as the beginning of the month and an increase of 20.59% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 23, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 25000.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66% compared to the beginning of the month price of 25166.67 yuan/ton, and an increase of 17.19% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

As of June 23, the domestic price of chloroform fell 8.79% in the month, the price of hydrofluoric acid fell 0.29%, and the price of raw materials continued to decline in the month. Supported by the peak demand season for refrigerants in summer, the prices quoted by manufacturers were temporarily stable this week.

In June, the price of upstream raw material Trichloroethylene continued to fluctuate at a low level, and the price of hydrofluoric acid fell 0.29% in the month. The overall price of raw material was stable and weak. Affected by the lower than expected downstream demand, some manufacturers slightly lowered the ex factory price of R134a this week, driving the price of domestic refrigerant R134a slightly weak.

In terms of raw materials, overall, the domestic hydrofluoric acid prices are still at a relatively low level and weak, and the continued weakness of raw material costs will have a certain inhibitory effect on the future refrigerant market prices.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Refrigerant analysts from Business Society believe that the cost of raw materials continues to decrease, manufacturers are shutting down for maintenance, and the supply of refrigerants has slightly declined. The market supply and demand game is constantly intensifying, and it is expected that in the short term, the prices of domestic refrigerants R22 and R134a will be under pressure, stable, and weak.

Cobalt prices rose for two consecutive weeks in June

According to data monitoring from Business Society, domestic cobalt prices have fluctuated and declined in the past 23 years, with an overall downward trend of a ladder. Stimulated by the news of national storage, cobalt prices experienced a brief rebound from late February to early March. As the storage ended, cobalt prices quickly fell and rebounded from the bottom in early June, with cobalt prices rising for two consecutive weeks in June. As of June 19th, the cobalt price was 271600 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.30% compared to June 3rd, when the cobalt price was 255500 yuan/ton. The domestic cobalt price has been rising for two consecutive weeks, will the cobalt market continue to peak.

Rising sales of new energy vehicles

According to data released by the China Automobile Association, in May, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 713000 and 717000 units respectively, with a market share of 30.1%. According to the data of the Passenger Association, in May, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 673000, the wholesale penetration rate of Alternative fuel vehicle manufacturers in China was 33.7%, and the retail penetration rate of Alternative fuel vehicle in China was 33.3%. In May, China exported 92000 new energy passenger vehicles, accounting for 30.5% of passenger vehicle exports. The world’s automobile industry will further develop towards electrification, and new energy vehicles will become the mainstream. The market share of new energy vehicles in the export volume of new energy vehicles exceeds 30%. The concentration trend of the new energy vehicle industry is obvious, and the new energy vehicle industry has entered a rapid development zone. The demand for cobalt in the market is stable.

Overview and outlook

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, believes that new energy vehicles are still in a stable growth range, but sales of 3C products such as smartphones have declined; The demand growth in the cobalt market is difficult to exceed expectations, and the continuous upward momentum of cobalt prices is insufficient. The slight decline in cobalt prices on June 19th is a manifestation of the lack of momentum for the continuous upward trend of cobalt prices. Overall, the rebound in demand is difficult to exceed expectations, and the relative balance between supply and demand in the cobalt market is temporarily stable. It is expected that cobalt prices will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the trend of TDI prices in East China has slightly increased. On June 16, the average market price in East China was 17300 yuan/ton, 1.76% higher than the price of 17000 yuan/ton on June 10, and 8.12% higher than the beginning of the month.

The domestic TDI market is stronger and upward, and factory news is released frequently within the week, bringing good news to the market. At the beginning of the week, a large factory in Shanghai announced an increase in the weekly strike price, followed by the announcement of the settlement price of a large factory in the north in the first ten days of the week. In addition, Covestro reduced the load, and BASF devices were shut down. The supplier’s market attitude was obvious, the trade market followed the trend, and the supplier’s offer was raised. However, due to the downstream consumption slack season, demand support was limited, The increase of TDI price has been restrained to a certain extent, and the overall price is high. As of the 16th, the quotation range of domestic products in the distribution market in East China is about 17000-17200 yuan/ton, and that of Shanghai products is 1720-17500 yuan/ton, mainly based on actual order negotiation.

The upstream toluene market is relatively weak and has been sorted out. As of June 16, the domestic average price of toluene was around 7080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.56% compared to the overall price of 7120 yuan/ton on June 10. The international crude oil price is relatively strong, and toluene profits are declining. Affected by market pessimism, downstream demand is weak, and actual order negotiations are average. The toluene industry is cautious, and manufacturers adjusted their prices based on their own shipment situation during the week. The trend of toluene has slightly decreased.

After market analysis, TDI data analysts from the Business Agency believe that from the perspective of TDI supply, the utilization rate of production capacity in the future will decrease, and the spot performance will be tight. The market mentality will have a significant impact, with suppliers rising significantly. Holders will follow the market and offer up. It is expected that the future market will be stronger, with downstream demand restrictions and narrow fluctuations in TDI prices. We will follow up on specific details.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has been fluctuating and declining recently. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 7840.00 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 7695.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.85%. The price has decreased by 30.68% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the styrene market prices have fluctuated and fallen. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has been mainly fluctuating and decreasing in the past two months, with prices rising first and then falling this week. The international crude oil price has fluctuated and fallen, the pure benzene market has continued to decline, and cost support is poor. Downstream demand is mainly in demand, and spot transactions are poor. The styrene market has continued to decline.

In terms of raw materials, international oil prices have fallen. This week, the price of pure benzene slightly decreased, and bearish news of increased supply and difficult demand in market trading continued to push down the price of pure benzene. Within the day, East China fell broadly to 6350-6480 yuan/ton. Shandong stabilizes to 6330-6400 yuan/ton.

In terms of downstream, the three major downstream markets of styrene have seen varying fluctuations. At the beginning of this week, the average price of PS was 9366 yuan/ton, while at the weekend, the average price of PS was 9300 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.71% and a decrease of 18.42% compared to the same period last year. The follow-up of the transaction was weak, and the merchants’ offer was loose. The mainstream price of GPPS (Polyphenylene sulfide) in the East China market was 8100-9500 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of HIPS (polystyrene) was 8700-9700 yuan/ton.

The EPS market is stable this week, and according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of ordinary materials is 9487.50 yuan/ton. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is not good, and it is expected that the market may be mainly volatile and weak in the short term.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has declined, and the high load situation in the ABS industry has continued this week. Overall, there have been few enterprise inspections, and the weekend operating rate has been narrowed down to about 83%. The on-site spot supply continues to be abundant, with high pressure on the supply side. However, the overall inventory has been depleted due to the replenishment at the end of last month, but there is still limited support for the spot market, and manufacturers continue to lower their factory prices. This week, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials fell by two and rose by one. The raw material acrylonitrile market continued to decline. The raw material propylene market is weak, and the cost side is declining; Downstream demand is weak and transaction volume has decreased, resulting in poor support for ABS.

Crude oil is mainly in a volatile downward trend, with high temperatures and off-season. The downstream strong demand and weak spot situation continue, resulting in a stalemate between long and short positions. It is expected that the short-term styrene market will be mainly in a volatile downward trend.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8014 yuan/ton on June 2, and the average price on June 9 was 8028 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.18% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) was 8120 yuan/ton on June 2, and 8407 yuan/ton on June 9, with an increase of 3.54% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 8937 yuan/ton on June 2 and 9037 yuan/ton on June 9, with a rise of 1.12% during the period.

Polyethylene prices have risen this week. The increase in LDPE was significant. At the beginning of the week, the crude oil price was relatively strong, which had a certain supporting effect on the price and was beneficial for the increase in polyethylene prices. LDPE devices have maintenance plans, local market supply has decreased, petrochemical companies have raised their prices, and trade has increased accordingly. Agricultural film is in the off-season of demand, with an increase in shutdown and maintenance devices. The overall level of operation is low, downstream stocking is not active, and order follow-up is not good.

The demand for polyethylene in the market is weak, and it is expected that there will be significant upward pressure on polyethylene, which may fluctuate and operate weakly.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of the business agency, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell slightly this week. The average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market fell from 7700.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7433.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 3.46%. Weekend prices fell by 53.15% year-on-year. On June 5th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 36.38, a decrease of 1.35 points from yesterday, a decrease of 65.54% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 20.78% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have slightly decreased this week, resulting in low inventory.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 6470.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6340.75 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 2.01%. A year-on-year decrease of 21.53%. The price of upstream raw material market fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of isobutyraldehyde was negatively affected. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol was 10433.33 yuan/ton. The low level consolidation of the new pentanediol market and average downstream demand have a bearish impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in mid to late June may be mainly fluctuating and declining. The upstream propylene market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream market for neopentyl glycol has stabilized at a low level, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.