Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price trend of cryolite in Henan region has been stable. On May 31, the average market price in Henan region was 7850 yuan/ton, which is the same as the average price of 7850 yuan/ton on May 24, and an increase of 0.32% compared to the beginning of the month.

quotations analysis

This week, the market for cryolite continued to remain stable, with tight upstream supply and good raw material support. The production of cryolite is under pressure, with low load operation of on-site devices being the main focus. Enterprise inventory is not under pressure, and the quotation for cryolite remains stable. The enthusiasm for downstream market entry on the demand side is weak, and the resistance to high prices is affected. The demand for goods is mainly based on demand, and cryolite manufacturers are actively shipping. The market trading atmosphere is still good, and cryolite prices are running smoothly, As of May 31st, the factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8500 yuan/ton, while the factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is 7200-8900 yuan/ton.

Upstream fluorite prices have been running smoothly, with an average market price of 3143.75 yuan/ton as of May 31, which is unchanged from the price of 3143.75 yuan/ton as of May 24. The operating rate of fluorite enterprises has not changed much, and spot supply is still tight. The demand side hydrofluoric acid price is low, the refrigerant market is poor, and the increase in fluorite is limited. The market situation is wait-and-see.

The downstream aluminum market is on the rise, with aluminum prices around 18290.00 yuan/ton on May 31, an increase of 1.05% compared to 18100.00 yuan/ton on May 24. In the off-season of terminal consumption, downstream demand support is insufficient, market trading is weak, and some regions have significantly reduced inventory. Adjustments will be made based on their own shipment situation, resulting in a slight increase in aluminum prices.

Future Market Forecast

The raw material support of cryolite enterprises is good, the manufacturer’s quotation remains stable, downstream procurement follows up on demand, the enterprise actively ships, the market supply and demand are relatively balanced, the market news is quiet, and the cryolite market remains stable in the later stage.

Overview of ethylene glycol market

According to data from Business News Agency, on May 30th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4103.33 yuan/ton, with prices in various regions as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is 3900-4310 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4150 yuan/ton, while the mainstream manufacturers in Central China have a spot price range of 4000 yuan/ton; The spot price for mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4150 yuan/ton.

List of International CIF Prices

On May 29th, the CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was 480 US dollars/ton; The CIF Southeast Asia price is 483 US dollars per ton.

Starting to destock ethylene glycol port inventory

At present, inventory is still relatively high. As of May 29th, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the East China main port was 933100 tons. After late April, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the port began to be depleted, and it has been operating in the range of less than 1 million tons since May.

Import and export data

The import volume of ethylene glycol in April was 428000 tons, a decrease of 7.93% month on month and 25.51% year-on-year. The cumulative import volume from January to April was 1.9671 million tons, a decrease of 30.33% year-on-year;

The export volume of ethylene glycol in April was 5400 tons, a decrease of 53.7% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 899.47%. The cumulative export volume from January to April was 37800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 162.48%.

Downstream demand slightly improving

Downstream, the operating rate of polyester has increased, and the utilization rate of polyester production capacity is 88.25%, an increase of 2.41% month on month. The production volume is 1.2524 million tons, an increase of 2.41% month on month. Next week’s weekly production is expected to be above 1.26 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of around 89%.

Low spot supply of ethylene glycol rebounds

In the early stage, the coal production plants were restarted one after another due to short shutdowns, and new plants were put into operation. The low supply level slightly rebounded, and the speed of ethylene glycol storage slowed down.

The price of plasticizer DBP rose first and then fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 29th, the DBP price was 9162.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.17% compared to the price of 9662.50 yuan/ton on May 7th; Compared to the price of 9237.50 yuan/ton on May 1st, it decreased by 0.81%. The prices of raw materials have fluctuated and fallen, the cost of plasticizers has decreased, and the price of plasticizer DBP has increased first and then decreased.

The price of isooctanol rose first and then fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, during the May Day holiday, the sudden shutdown of isooctanol devices drove up the price of isooctanol rapidly. On May 8th, the price of isooctanol was 10183.33 yuan/ton, a sharp increase of 11.90% compared to 9100 yuan/ton on May 1st; DBP production enterprises have octanol contracts to execute, and there is also an appropriate amount of pre holiday stock of raw materials. Therefore, in the face of a sharp rise in the market, downstream customers have a low intention to buy at a high level, and there are gradually news of production stoppages. Insufficient demand has led to a rapid decline in the price of isooctanol. On May 12, the price of isooctanol was 9566.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.06% compared to May 8, when the price of isooctanol was 10183.33 yuan/ton; Afterwards, the supply and demand of isooctanol were relatively balanced, and the price of isooctanol stabilized at a high level. As of May 29, the price of isooctanol was 9460 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.96% compared to 9100 yuan/ton on May 1. In May, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and consolidated, but the current price is still difficult to attract the buying sentiment of end users, resulting in weak market transactions. The support for the increase in plasticizer product costs is weakened, and the price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and fell.

The price of n-butanol rose first and then fell in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 29th, the price of n-butanol was 7500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.00% compared to May 7th, when the price of n-butanol was 8333.33 yuan/ton; The price of n-butanol increased by 4.65% compared to 7166.67 yuan/ton on May 1st. In May, the price of n-butanol first rose and then fell, and the price of n-butanol increased compared to the beginning of the month. The overall support for the increase in plasticizer costs was weakened, and the upward momentum for plasticizer DBP prices in the future was insufficient.

The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 29th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 7950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.34% compared to the price of 8225 yuan/ton on May 1st. In May, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, and in the middle of the month, the price of phthalic anhydride briefly rebounded and adjusted. However, overall, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, and exports increased. The market of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, and the pressure on the cost of plasticizers increased.

Downstream PVC prices fluctuate and fall

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, PVC prices fluctuated and fell in May, resulting in weak downstream demand; As of May 29th, the price of PVC was 5530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.67% compared to the price of PVC on May 1st, which was 5925 yuan/ton. The economy is weak, PVC demand is weak, PVC prices are fluctuating and falling, and there is insufficient demand for plasticizers.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that in May, the prices of isooctanol and n-butanol first rose and then fell, while the prices of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, and the cost support for plasticizer DBP products decreased; Downstream PVC prices have fluctuated and fallen, the PVC market is weak, and the demand for plasticizers has decreased. Overall, the supply of isooctanol and n-butanol has resumed, and the cost of plasticizer raw materials has increased to support a decrease. The demand for plasticizers is weak, and it is expected that the price of plasticizer DBP will be weakened and lowered.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the spandex market continued to weaken this week (5.22-5.26), with an average price of 33375 yuan/ton in the 40D market as of May 26, a decrease of 1.48% compared to the beginning of the week, and a slight narrowing of the weekly decline compared to last week.

The inventory pressure of mainstream spandex factories has increased, and actual negotiations are flexible. Enterprises often offer discounts, and quotations have been lowered to varying degrees, ranging from 500 to 1000 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the week.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan/ton)

Region/ 20D/ 30D/ 40D

Henan/ 36000./35000./32000

Fujian/ 36500./34500./32500

Zhejiang/ 38000./37000./34000

Jiangsu/ 38000./36000./35000

Downstream weaving factories have a weak willingness to stock up on raw materials, with a focus on purchasing on demand and a strong wait-and-see attitude. On the one hand, factories prioritize the consumption of raw material inventory, and on the other hand, many enterprises choose to reduce burden independently, especially in the weaving industry, where the burden reduction is more obvious. Currently, Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines have dropped to around 60%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the current support for raw materials PTMEG and pure MDI is average, while downstream demand is weak and follows suit. Spandex still maintains a negative trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 25th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 5910 yuan/ton, which is 1.72% higher than the reference average price of 5810 yuan/ton on May 19th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 25th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6033 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the reference average price of 6033 yuan/ton on May 19th.

2、 Market analysis

The hot process phosphoric acid market price stopped falling and rose slightly this week, while the wet process phosphoric acid market was stable. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has rebounded and risen, strengthening cost support, and some enterprises have slightly raised prices. However, downstream demand remains sluggish and there is still no improvement. The market transaction atmosphere is weak, and the phosphoric acid industry is mainly wait-and-see. As of May 25th, the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 5700 yuan/ton, while the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 5700-6200 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 5500-6500 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market stopped falling and picked up this week, with the market price focus rising. At present, the overall market trading situation of yellow phosphorus is still average, and the price of yellow phosphorus in the market is tentatively increasing. The cost pressure of yellow phosphorus manufacturers is relatively high, and the price is mainly high. We will not provide external quotations for the time being, and will discuss the actual order in detail. Downstream procurement is relatively cautious. As of now, the mainstream market quotation is around 20800-21000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the price of domestic phosphorus ore market was weak and declined this week. At present, the demand for phosphate ore in the market is weak, and downstream procurement is under pressure, resulting in weak transactions. As of May 25th, the reference price of phosphate rock was 1030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton compared to last Friday (May 19th) at 1066 yuan/ton. The specific order needs to be negotiated.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to phosphoric acid analysts from Business Society, the decline in the hot process phosphoric acid market has been temporarily postponed and prices have slightly increased due to cost support, as the price of raw material yellow phosphorus has stopped falling and rebounded recently. But market demand is weak, downstream procurement is cautious, and the phosphoric acid market is watching the trend of raw materials. It is expected that the price of phosphoric acid will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, and it will be sorted and operated.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the East China region’s 1 # tin ingot market fluctuated and declined this week (5.12-5.19). On May 12th, the average market price was 201210 yuan/ton, and on May 19th, the average market price was 196110 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 2.53%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have risen continuously for three months due to macroeconomic factors, and have fallen by 11.35% in a single month since February 2023. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the overall trend of the tin ingot market is weak and has been declining for four consecutive weeks.

The overall changes in the operation of the smelter this week compared to last week are limited, and manufacturers still have a strong attitude towards price competition. The tight supply at the mining end has not yet improved, and the refinery has a strong reluctance to sell. The demand side has limited changes and still shows weak demand. The overall consumption in the electronic market is still weak, and there are few signs of improvement in the short term. In the downstream consumption structure of refined tin metal, soldering tin accounts for about 44% of the market share, while tin plates account for about 16% of the market share. Therefore, the development of the electronics industry, including the development of the new energy industry, has a significant impact on tin. The operating rate of solder enterprises has been basically stable in the near future, and it is difficult to make significant changes in the near future. In terms of inventory, social inventory remained at a high level this week, dragging down tin prices this week. Overall, the weak downstream demand pattern continues, and the impact of domestic supply and demand on tin prices remains weak. It is necessary to focus on the impact of domestic and foreign macro factors on the market.

On May 19, 2023, the London Metal Exchange (LME) tin inventory increased by 125 tons (in tons) to 1835 tons

On May 20th, the base metal index stood at 1170 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.60% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 82.24% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, in the 20th week of 2023 (5.15-5.19), a total of 1 commodity in the non-ferrous sector saw a month on month increase in the list of commodity prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the market of polyaluminum chloride continued to fluctuate and decline slightly in mid May. Among them, on May 1st, China’s solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market reported 1800 yuan/ton, and on May 15th, the market reported 1781 yuan/ton, a half month decline of 1.04%.

As shown in the figure, the domestic market of polyaluminum chloride has been declining for several consecutive weeks since February. The weekly decline in April has occasionally expanded, and the decline in the first half of May has slightly contracted. The market has remained stable in mid May. The production of water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas is normal, with sufficient spot inventory, unfavorable downstream procurement demand, tepid industry, and little change in the market for polyaluminum chloride.

Raw Material Hydrochloric Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market fluctuated from around 195 yuan/ton in mid May to around 175 yuan/ton, with a drop of up to 10.26%. The upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a low level, with insufficient cost support. The downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride markets are consolidating at a low level, and downstream purchasing willingness is weak. Analysis suggests that hydrochloric acid has been experiencing minor fluctuations and declines in recent times.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic liquefied natural gas prices continued to fluctuate and decline in mid May. Among them, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China on May 11th was 3988 yuan/ton, and on May 20th it was 3858 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.26% this month. The domestic liquefied natural gas market continues to weaken, and demand continues to be weak. On Friday, the bidding price of raw gas was lowered, and cost support weakened. It is expected that the domestic liquefied natural gas prices will continue to decline in the short term.

Future forecast: In mid May, the market for raw material hydrochloric acid and fuel liquefied natural gas continued to decline, with weak cost support. Recently, production in the main production areas has been normal, with sufficient market stock, and downstream demand has been weak. The situation of oversupply continues. Regarding the future market, the polyaluminum chloride market will continue to stabilize and weaken.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 19, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 5810 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 10.48% compared to the reference average price of 6490 yuan/ton on May 15.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 19th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6033 yuan/ton, which is 6566 yuan/ton compared to the reference average price on May 15th. This week, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid price decreased by 8.12%.

2、 Market analysis

The price of phosphoric acid market fell continuously this week. The prices of raw phosphorus ore and yellow phosphorus are weak and the cost side support is insufficient. Downstream demand is poor, the market transaction atmosphere is weak, and the bearish sentiment in the phosphoric acid market is strong. As of May 19th, the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 5600 yuan/ton, while the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 5650-5850 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 5500-6500 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus, this week’s domestic yellow phosphorus market situation was weak, and it was sorted and operated. The overall market trading situation is average, with light demand on the market. The inventory on site is under pressure, and some enterprises are stopping for maintenance to alleviate the pressure. The manufacturer will not provide a quotation to the public for the time being, and will discuss the actual order in detail. Downstream procurement is relatively cautious. As of now, the mainstream quotation is around 20000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the domestic phosphorus ore market remained stable and organized this week. At present, the overall operation of the downstream industry chain of phosphate rock is relatively weak, and the demand support provided by the downstream is limited. However, due to the continuous tight operation of the supply side in the phosphate rock field, and the low pressure on the supply side, the overall market can still operate stably.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to phosphoric acid analysts from Business Society, the phosphoric acid market has been continuously sluggish in recent days. Poor raw material prices have weakened cost support. Downstream demand is weak, procurement is cautious. The raw material yellow phosphorus market is unstable, and the phosphoric acid market price is expected to continue to be weak in the short term.

Recent price trends of isooctanol

According to the commodity analysis system of the business agency, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market in Shandong Province dropped from 10183.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9633.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 5.40%. Weekend prices fell by 24.15% year-on-year. On May 15th, the isooctanol commodity index was 70.83, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 48.49% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 101.51% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Insufficient upstream support and weakened downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong have declined this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 6918.60 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6880.60 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.55%. Weekend prices fell by 19.77% year-on-year. The price of upstream raw material market fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of isooctanol was negatively affected.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the factory price of DOP has slightly decreased this week. The price of DOP dropped from 10483.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1009.17 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 4.52%. Weekend prices fell by 15.62% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices have slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol has weakened.

Future prospects

In mid to late May, the Shandong isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and declines. The upstream propylene market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. Downstream DOP market slightly declined, and downstream demand weakened. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isooctanol market may experience minor fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price data

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 14th, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 7661.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.10% compared to May 8th at 7746.50 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 7500-7600 yuan/ton.

As of May 14th, the mainstream factory average price of locally refined straight-run naphtha in China was 7504.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.02% compared to May 8th at 7581.50 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight-run naphtha was around 7300-7500 yuan/ton.

On May 14th, the naphtha commodity index was 95.36, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 21.60% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.64 points (2022-03-10), and an increase of 125.76% from the lowest point of 42.24 points on July 19th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2012 to the present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of refined naphtha fluctuated and declined, with weak costs and demand. Terminal restructuring and ethylene demand continued to be weak, with limited market trading and light trading volume.

This week’s international crude oil market was volatile, with poor performance in US economic data during the current price adjustment cycle. In addition, with the announcement of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, investors’ concerns about the possibility of interest rate hikes triggering an economic recession and a decrease in energy demand continue to rise, leading to a downward pressure on oil prices. The debt ceiling impasse in the United States has intensified the fear of economic recession. The increase in the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits has put pressure on the oil market, and the increase in the U.S. crude oil inventory has depressed the international oil market.

According to the monitoring of Business Society, the price of toluene continued to decline this week. On May 8th, the average price of toluene was 7240.00 yuan/ton, and on May 12th, the average price of toluene was 7160.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.05%. The price of mixed xylene continued to decline this week, with an average price of 7600 yuan/ton on May 8th and 7520 yuan/ton on May 12th, a decrease of 1.05%. This week, the price trend of PX has declined. As of the weekend, the domestic ex-works price of xylene was 8300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.78% compared to the price of 9000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts from Business Society believe that this week’s international crude oil market experienced a downward trend, coupled with weak costs and demand for local refining naphtha, terminal restructuring, and continued weak demand for ethylene. Market trading is limited, and transactions are light. It is expected that local refining naphtha may continue to decline in the near future.