Price trend

In April, the domestic EVA market continued to be negative, with spot prices gradually decreasing. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 27th, the average ex factory price of EVA in China was 15333.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.55% from the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

Entering April, the ethylene market in the raw material end showed stable consolidation and operation. In the first ten days, the support for the cost side increased, and together with the maintenance of overseas international large factories in the middle of the year, it supported the ethylene market. However, the overall domestic demand is average, and there are few out of contract transactions. The market for vinyl acetate is relatively weak when it is convenient, and downstream factories in China are generally operating, with on-site consumption leaning towards the lowest demand. The scale of production capacity loss in the supply side within the month is relatively small, and the pattern of abundant supply remains unchanged. Adding to the poor support from the raw material side, the spot market for vinyl acetate in April did not show any improvement, and prices fell due to weakness. The raw material market has been flat and falling, weakening support for EVA market.

On the supply side:

Due to the rapid increase in the load of multiple domestic EVA production enterprises in March, the EVA industry took on the pattern of high load from last month in April. The overall operating rate of the enterprise fluctuated between 80% -90% during the month, with an operating rate of approximately 83.9% at the end of the month. At the same time, the production is relatively stable, with a total monthly production of about 155100 tons, and the market supply is abundant. There is pressure on factory inventory, and factory prices have been lowered. The inventory in society is also under pressure, and the operation of traders giving up profits and taking orders runs through the entire month. Within the range, there has been a significant decline in the spot prices of mainstream brands, coupled with the impact of the new production of the Gulei Petrochemical plant in the latter half of the year, overall the supplier’s support for spot prices is poor.

In terms of demand:

The domestic market atmosphere for EVA is weak this month. The demand for foaming materials has not improved, and terminal enterprises have lagged behind in following up. Consumption of shoe materials and other aspects is weak, and there is little trading on the market. Affected by the news of new production devices, buyers are cautious in stocking up, merchants have a low mentality, and the market is not smooth in selling goods. In terms of actual trading, there is a bias towards low end prices, and companies are resistant to high priced sources of goods. The demand side has a negative impact on the EVA price trend during the month.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the EVA market performed negatively in April, with prices falling all the way down. The raw material market has turned down, and there is insufficient support for EVA spot sales. Downstream demand is sluggish, with poor support for EVA spot sales. EVA started at a high level within the month, and the polymerization plant went to the warehouse for operation, with traders following the market. At present, there are many market offers that offer discounts, and there is an increase in price reduction and order taking operations. There is a certain degree of supply-demand contradiction in the market, and the atmosphere is relatively empty. It is expected that the domestic EVA market will continue to operate in a weak manner in early May.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of chlorinated paraffin fluctuated and fell this month. On April 1st, the average market price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5733 yuan/ton. On April 26th, the average market price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5533 yuan/ton. This month, the price of chlorinated paraffin 52 decreased by 3.49%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic price of chlorinated paraffin fluctuated and declined this month. The enterprise is operating steadily and the equipment is operating normally. This month, the price of raw material liquid chlorine fluctuated and fell, while the price of raw material liquid wax first rose and then fell, resulting in insufficient cost support. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak, and there are relatively few transactions in the chlorinated paraffin market. As of April 26th, the ex factory quotation for chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui region is about 6000 yuan/ton, the ex factory quotation for chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast region is about 5500-5800 yuan/ton, and the ex factory quotation for chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong region is about 5100 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly rise and fall from January 30, 2023 to April 17, 2023, it can be seen that the domestic chlorinated paraffin cycle has seen mixed ups and downs. April saw a significant decline.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax increased in the first half of this month, and the trading direction on the market was good. Prices will begin to decline in late October. Liquid wax fluctuates with crude oil prices. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine has fluctuated and fallen this month, with poor market conditions and average trading volume. Downstream performance is mainly wait-and-see.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Chlorinated paraffin analysts from Business Society believe that the prices of raw material liquid chlorine and liquid wax have continued to decline recently, weakening cost support. Downstream purchasing sentiment is not high, and the trading atmosphere is light. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will decrease slightly in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to changes in raw material prices.

Overview of ethylene glycol market

According to data from Business News Agency, on April 25th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4153.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.12% compared to the market average price of 4158.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Ethylene glycol inventory remains high

As of April 24th, the inventory of ethylene glycol at East China Main Port was 1.0763 million tons, which is 1.0321 million tons compared to March 23rd and a total of 44100 tons. Currently, inventory is relatively high.

International CIF price down

On April 24th, the CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was 505 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 9 US dollars per ton compared to the previous month; The CIF Southeast Asia price is 523 US dollars per ton.

The supply is still loose, and the expected conversion to production needs to be actually implemented

The operating rate of domestic ethylene glycol units has slightly increased to 60% with the production of new units and the restart of coal chemical plants. In terms of imports, the import volume in March will slightly increase to around 520000 tons with the arrival of Iranian goods at the port. In addition, the port’s shipping speed is starting to decline, and the port is expected to accumulate inventory slightly.

Downstream demand is weak

Downstream, the scale of polyester maintenance has increased, and the polyester load continues to decline, mainly because the terminal is temporarily unable to withstand high priced raw materials, and the operating rate of the weaving machine has decreased. Although there have been many new polyester production units recently, which to some extent offset some of the reduced production load, the overall downstream demand is weak.

Weak upward momentum on the spot end

At present, the average spot price of ethylene glycol is within a relatively low range in history, but the supply pressure of ethylene glycol is still in the short term. In terms of demand, the start of terminal looms has slightly weakened, and some polyester factories have production reduction plans, suppressing the upward trend of ethylene glycol prices; The fundamentals of ethylene glycol are still weak.

Ethylene glycol has been in a negative profit price range for a long time. Currently, it mainly relies on the increase in equipment maintenance scale and the reduction in supply, coupled with the weakening of supply caused by medium to long-term production changes and the expected support of downstream demand that may improve; We still need to wait and see the specific performance, after all, the inventory data is not optimistic.

It is expected that in the short term, the probability of ethylene glycol trading sideways will increase, with an average price range of around 3950-4200 yuan/ton.

1、 Price data

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 23, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 8026.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.23% compared to April 17, 8126.50 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 8000 yuan/ton.

As of April 23, the mainstream factory average price of locally refined straight-run naphtha in China was 7876.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32% compared to 7901.50 yuan/ton on April 17. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight-run naphtha was around 7800-7900 yuan/ton.

On April 23, the naphtha commodity index was 99.06, an increase of 0.06 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 18.56% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.64 points (2022-03-10), and an increase of 134.52% from the lowest point of 42.24 points on July 19, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2012 to the present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of refined naphtha fluctuated and declined, with weak costs and demand, terminal restructuring, weak demand for ethylene, limited market trading, and light trading volume.

This week, the international crude oil market fluctuated and fell. Recently, the market was worried about the performance of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike. The strengthening of the US dollar suppressed oil prices. In addition, the increase in the US crude oil inventory depressed the market, and the crude oil market price trend fell back.

According to the monitoring of Business Society, the price of toluene has slightly increased this week. On April 17th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7510.00 yuan/ton, and on April 21st, the benchmark price was 7590.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.07%. The price of mixed xylene remained stable this week, at 7880 yuan/ton. In terms of the PX market, several sets of PX devices in China are still undergoing maintenance, and the supply of PX continues to contract. The on-site supply of goods is normal, and the situation of goods is good. However, it is difficult to increase terminal demand, and the price trend is temporarily stable. As of the weekend, the domestic ex-works price of xylene is 9100 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts from Business Society believe that the price of local refined naphtha has slightly declined this week, with weak costs and demand, terminal restructuring, weak demand for ethylene, limited market trading, and light trading volume; But as May Day approaches, some downstream companies are preparing for the holiday and it is expected that the refining of naphtha in the near future may be the main focus.

1、 Price data

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of petroleum coke of the local refiner rose first and then fell this week. On April 22, the average price of Shandong market was 1894.00 yuan/ton, 2.71% higher than the price of 1844.00 yuan/ton on April 17.

On April 22, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 147.31, unchanged from yesterday, down 63.96% from the cycle’s highest point of 408.70 (2022-05-11), and up 120.23% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 30th, 2012 to the present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of refinery petroleum coke rose and fell with each other. The overall price rose. The inventory of local refining enterprises was low. Downstream enterprises and traders concentrated on stocking up. The local refining petroleum coke market traded well. However, at present, the port petroleum coke inventory is at a long-term high level, which cannot be changed in the short term, and the port petroleum coke turnover is limited.

This week, the international crude oil market fluctuated and fell. Recently, the market was worried about the performance of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike. The strengthening of the US dollar suppressed oil prices. In addition, the increase in the US crude oil inventory depressed the market, and the crude oil market price trend fell back.

The price of calcined coke has increased this week; The metal silicon market has slightly declined; The trend of inventory depletion in downstream electrolytic aluminum society is evident, and downstream demand is beginning to expand. Aluminum prices are operating at a stronger level, and in the short term, aluminum prices will continue to improve. Aluminum carbon enterprises are still able to purchase.

Petroleum coke analysts from the business community believe that the recent low stock of locally refined petroleum coke, the concentration of downstream enterprises and traders to stock up, and the local refining petroleum coke market trading well. Affected by the continuous rise in the price of petroleum coke produced by local refineries over the weekend, it exceeded the expectations of downstream enterprises, and the procurement was cautious and the wait-and-see mood was strong. In addition, the long-term high level of petroleum coke inventory at the port still cannot be changed in the short term, and petroleum coke turnover at the port is limited. It is expected that the market situation of locally refined petroleum coke will be dominated in the near future.

Domestic cobalt prices have stopped falling and rebounded this week

According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of April 17th, cobalt prices were 273500 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.70% compared to April 10th when cobalt prices stopped falling at 271600 yuan/ton. Exports have surged, and cobalt prices have stopped falling and risen this week.

Lithium battery exports surge

On April 13th, at the press conference on the import and export situation for the first quarter of 2023 by the State Administration of Customs, spokesperson Lv Daliang introduced that in the first quarter, the export of electric vehicles reached 64.75 billion yuan, an increase of 122.3%. At the same time, driven by multiple factors such as strong demand in foreign electric vehicles and energy storage markets, the export of lithium batteries reached 109.79 billion yuan, an increase of 94.3%. The export of electric vehicles and lithium batteries has surged, and the demand for cobalt in the market is expected to increase. The driving force for domestic cobalt price increases.

Overview and outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, the surge in exports has led to an expected increase in demand for cobalt in the market, and the upward momentum of cobalt prices has increased. This week, cobalt prices have stopped falling and rising. In the future, the sustainability of the export growth of lithium batteries and electric vehicles needs to be verified. The expectation of cobalt market demand growth is limited, and the support for cobalt price increases is insufficient. It is expected that cobalt prices will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

This week (4.7~4.14), the acrylonitrile market slightly declined. According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of April 14th, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 9600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.54% from last Friday’s 9850 yuan/ton. At present, the self pickup price of acrylonitrile in the market is between 9400 to 9700 yuan/ton. The raw material prices have rebounded slightly, and the demand side just needs support, but the supply side pressure is still significant, and the acrylonitrile market is weak and consolidating.

This week (4.7~4.14), the domestic operating rate of acrylonitrile remained around 7.7%, and the pressure on the supply side of acrylonitrile remained high.

This week (4.7~4.14), the raw material propylene market rebounded slightly, with slightly stronger cost support for acrylonitrile. According to monitoring by Business Society, as of April 14th, the domestic propylene price was 7286 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.33% from last Friday’s 7120 yuan/ton. Recently, the support for the Shandong propylene market has become stronger, and prices have continued to rise slightly. The mainstream quotation in the Shandong market is 7200-7300 yuan/ton. The supply and demand on the site remain stable, with little upstream inventory pressure and strong willingness to raise prices. Downstream demand is mainly in demand, and demand is stable. The current propylene market is in a stalemate, and with downstream procurement continuing to follow up, it is expected that the propylene market will have a strong trend in the near future.

Downstream ABS prices have declined, but the start of industry equipment construction remains at a high level of around 9.3%, which continues to provide strong support for acrylonitrile; The domestic nitrile rubber has rebounded slightly, while the price of polyacrylamide has slightly decreased, providing stable and weak support for acrylonitrile.

Future Forecast: Business Society Acrylonitrile Analysts believe that the current supply pressure of acrylonitrile is high, and there is still a strong demand for support. With the increase in cost, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will stop falling and stabilize in the short term; Attention should be paid to the maintenance plan of acrylonitrile enterprises in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the overall price of toluene has shown a downward trend this month. On March 1st, the price of toluene was 7310 yuan/ton, and on March 31st, it was 7080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton or 3.15% compared to the beginning of the month.

In terms of crude oil, in early March, the Saudi side stated that the OPEC+2 million barrels per day production reduction agreement would be implemented until the end of this year. The tight global idle capacity and supply uncertainty related to the Russia Ukraine war have limited the downward space for oil prices. The market is generally optimistic about Asia’s expectations for crude oil demand, and the expectation of a rebound in the demand side of the crude oil market is constantly strengthening. The oil price is strengthening, and the spot supply of toluene is tight, while the price of toluene remains high.

In late March, against the backdrop of the global economic recession, the macro risks brought about by the banking problems in Silicon Valley led to a significant decline in crude oil prices. Affected by the economic recession environment, the market as a whole was still in a state of panic. With the tightening of liquidity and the expected adjustment of crude oil supply and demand structure caused by this risk aversion sentiment, the overall operating range of oil prices shifted downward, and the basic performance of the toluene market was poor, with prices operating in a weak state.

The crude oil price fluctuated in March, showing a “V” shaped trend. On March 31, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil in Shangshang Society was 72.97 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of -3.58% compared to the beginning of this month (75.68 US dollars per barrel). The benchmark price of Brent crude oil is 77.59 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of -5.42% compared to the beginning of this month (82.04 US dollars per barrel).

Downstream: In terms of TDI, the price of TDI has been falling all the way this month. On March 1st, the price was 19500 yuan/ton, and on March 31st, the price dropped to 17800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.72%. This month, the mainstream performance of the domestic market is weak, with a supply and demand dilemma. Downstream purchasing demand continues to be sluggish, with a general trading atmosphere and a stalemate in the trade market. Holders mainly ship goods, and there is a game between supply and demand on the market. The short-term TDI market is running light.

On the downstream side, domestic PX prices have remained stable this month, with a promising increase at the end of the month. The overall price in March remained at 8500 yuan/ton, reaching 8800 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 300 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. In late March, the comprehensive operating rate of PX enterprises further improved, and the price of PX market rose strongly.

In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline fluctuated positively in the first half of this month and negatively in the second half. On March 1st, the price was 8472.6 yuan/ton, and on March 31st, it was 8410.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62 yuan/ton or 0.73% compared to the beginning of the month. The domestic refined oil market continues to decline, with a light trading atmosphere and significant sales pressure from the main operating units at the end of the month, resulting in a downward pressure on domestic gasoline prices.

3、 Future Market Forecast

At present, with the easing of concerns about the recent economic recession and the expected increase in supply tightening, oil prices have emerged from the low levels caused by banking issues and are in the stage of recovery and repair. Short term crude oil fundamentals still have support, but demand growth is limited, and the upward path is still hindered. It is expected that international oil prices will continue to be mainly recovered from fluctuations next month. As the weather gets warmer, people’s travel willingness and activity radius increase, the demand for gasoline gradually increases. In addition to the increase in gasoline exports in April, the market is favorable to support the overweight, and the gasoline market has some room for growth. From the perspective of future market, it is expected that the domestic toluene market price will rebound to a high level in April. Pay attention to the trend of crude oil and gasoline, the dynamics of toluene units, and the impact of downstream demand on prices.

1、 Price trend

According to data from Business Society, the average reference price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China on March 1st was 8400 yuan/ton. On March 31st, the average reference price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China was 7991 yuan/ton. This month, the domestic price of hot process phosphoric acid decreased by 4.86%.

2、 Market analysis

The price of phosphoric acid market continued to fall in March. The trend of raw material yellow phosphorus market this month is not good, and the phosphoric acid market is mainly wait-and-see. Market trading is light, with relatively few transactions. Under the dual weakness of cost and demand, the price of thermal phosphoric acid continues to decline. As of March 31st, the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 7750-8100 yuan/ton, the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 8000 yuan/ton, and the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 7600-8100 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 7250-8500 yuan/ton.

Market situation of raw material yellow phosphorus. The price of yellow phosphorus market fell in March. Manufacturers send more preliminary orders and often do not provide external quotations. In the first half of the month, the market trading was light, the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, the enthusiasm for buying was not high, the high-end price was difficult to clinch a deal, and the market price was reduced. In the second half of the month, the supply and demand of yellow phosphorus market remained relatively stagnant, with prices temporarily stabilizing and consolidating. Some manufacturers in Yunnan have completed maintenance and significantly increased their supply, but the price of raw material phosphate rock has increased. The manufacturers are more resistant to low-end prices, and most enterprises are temporarily not offering prices to the outside world, maintaining real order negotiations. As of now, the mainstream quotation is around 28200-32000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is subject to negotiation.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to phosphoric acid analysts from Business Society, the current market trend of raw material yellow phosphorus is not good, and the demand for phosphoric acid in the market is low. Manufacturers and distributors are still mainly on the sidelines. It is expected that the price of phosphoric acid will continue to be weak in the short term.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA6 market has been stable and weak, with each spot price decreasing in a narrow range. According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of April 2, the average factory price of PA6 in China was 13825 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.18% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

As can be seen from the above figure, the market price of caprolactam has declined this week. The price of raw material pure benzene rebounded, and cost support turned stronger. In addition, the load of the caprolactam industry has decreased, and the market supply pressure has eased. Downstream, procurement is just needed, and cautious operation is the key. It is expected that caprolactam will slowly recover in the short term, and its support for PA6 may increase.

On the supply side:

This week, the overall load of domestic PA6 production enterprises was above 73%, with an overall narrow increase. The market supply is stable, the inventory position is on the high side, the supplier’s support for spot goods is general, and the factory price is loose in a narrow range.

Demand: On the downstream side, the overall load of the weaving and spinning industries was flat, but the consumption of raw materials was poor. At the beginning of the week, there were still some actual purchases of low-priced supplies, and the demand for replenishment in the second half of the week was weak. The wait-and-see atmosphere was heavy, and the trading volume was weak. The overall demand for PA6 chips was moderate.

Aftermarket Forecast

The PA6 market fell in a narrow range this week. The load of domestic polymerization plants has steadily increased, and the supply has maintained an adequate level. The demand side is similar to last week, with stocking bias towards maintaining production. Caprolactam fluctuated and PA6 cost side support turned stronger. The market is dominated by wait-and-see sentiment, with cost side support gradually emerging. It is expected that the PA6 market may turn warmer in the short term.