1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the average market price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5800 yuan/ton on March 6, and the average market price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5800 yuan/ton on March 13. The price of chlorinated paraffin was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market price of chlorinated paraffins was stable. This week, the price of raw liquid chlorine and liquid wax rose, and the cost side support was good. At present, the market demand for chlorinated paraffins is low and the trust atmosphere is general. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and the manufacturer has a strong attitude of price stability and normal shipment. As of March 13, the ex-factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui Province was about 6300 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province was about 5300-5700 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw liquid wax, the price of liquid wax showed an upward trend this week, and the liquid wax fluctuated with the crude oil market. In terms of raw liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine rose this week, the market transaction price rose, and the enterprise shipment was smooth.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the chlorinated paraffin analysts of the Business Society, the trend of chlorinated paraffin has been temporarily stable recently, with the manufacturers mainly on the sidelines and the downstream procurement cautious. Due to the rising price of chlorinated paraffins, the market price of chlorinated paraffins is expected to rise steadily in the short term under cost pressure.

According to the data monitored by the Business Agency, the recent market volatility of PP has been sorted out, and each wire drawing brand has fallen more or less. As of March 13, the mainstream price of T30S (wire drawing) offered by domestic producers and traders was about 7950 yuan/ton, up and down by+0.32% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the price of propylene in Shandong Province has stopped falling and rebounded recently, pushing up in a narrow range. It is understood that in the early stage, the price of propylene has been continuously reduced, the price has been adjusted in place, the enterprise inventory is controllable, and the downstream bargain-hunting has led to a small increase in the market. With the support of the downstream market, it is expected that the market will be stronger in the near future.

The price of propylene rebounded after falling, and the cost side of PP gradually recovered. In terms of industry load, PP enterprises started to increase last week due to the release of new production capacity, but the overall industry load was about 78.6%, the supply was stable, the supply was sufficient, and the supply pressure increased. In terms of demand, the operating rate of enterprises in the downstream plastic knitting of the main force is limited, about 40%. The terminal enterprises have a general stock situation, and mainly purchase on demand.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the Business Agency, as of March 13, the spot price of domestic fiber PP fell in a narrow range. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) is about 7866.67 yuan/ton, which is – 0.42% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month and – 16.01% lower than the same period last year. At present, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber material have a low load, and the overall load is about 30%. The demand of end enterprises is weak, the digestion speed of non-woven end products is general, and the operation of fiber PP replenishment by enterprises is poor. It is expected that the shock consolidation operation will be maintained in the short term.

In terms of melt-blown materials, the recent melt-blown PP market has dropped significantly. As of March 13, the average quotation of domestic melt-blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Business Society was about 9000 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease was -5.59%, and the year-on-year decrease was -11.62%. At present, the social consumption of medical melt-blown cloth materials has been more and more beneficial, and has been stabilizing after the recent decline. The overseas demand has not been significantly boosted, and the traders have given up their profits, and the price is mostly around 8500 yuan/ton. It is expected that the melt-blown material market will continue to be weak.

Aftermarket forecast

PP analysts of the Business Agency believe that the recent polypropylene market has been shaken and sorted out. The price of raw material propylene rebounded after falling, and the drag of the cost side to the market gradually improved. However, the demand of terminal enterprises tends to be just needed to maintain production, and the demand release is weak. At the same time, the impact of the early landing capacity on the market is apparent in the near future. It is expected that the PP market will continue to consolidate and operate in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid was stable this week, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 9714.29 yuan/ton by the end of the week, which was the same as the price of 9714.29 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.30%.

Supply side: The price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid is low and stable, and the mainstream price of domestic hydrofluoric acid negotiated by various regions is 9500-10000 yuan/ton. Some units are still in shutdown recently, but the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is still sufficient, and the manufacturer’s hydrofluoric acid order situation is poor, which affects the price of hydrofluoric acid to remain low.

Raw material side: the price trend of raw material fluorite market is temporarily stable, and the average price of domestic fluorite is 2950 yuan/ton as of the 10th, and the price trend is stable this week. Recently, the operating rate of domestic supply side has increased, some fluorite enterprises have started operations, and the supply of domestic fluorite production enterprises has increased. The raw material mining enterprises are facing increasingly stringent safety and environmental protection requirements, resulting in insufficient operation of fluorite mines. The insufficient supply of raw materials is also a major factor affecting the supply of fluorite. The price trend of fluorite on the site is temporarily stable, and hydrofluoric acid is affected by costs, and the market price fluctuates little.

The market price of raw material sulfuric acid rose. As of the 10th, the average domestic sulfuric acid price was 268.33 yuan/ton. The price rose 4.54% this week, and the price rose this week. Recently, domestic sulphuric acid plants have been operating stably and the supply has been normal, and the enthusiasm of downstream procurement of sulphuric acid has increased. Positive factors have supported the rise of sulphuric acid prices, which has driven the domestic hydrofluoric acid market to stop falling and stabilize.

Demand side: the market of refrigerant products at the downstream of the terminal rose slightly, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remained low. Some enterprises resumed work and slightly increased the ex-factory price, driving the domestic refrigerant R22 price to rise slightly. The refrigerant R22 manufacturer’s load is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and there is a lot of wait-and-see mood. Affected by the low price of hydrofluoric acid, the refrigerant industry is under pressure, and the price increase of R22 is limited. The domestic R134a manufacturers operate at low load, and the price trend of R134a rises slightly. However, at present, the demand procurement is the main part, and the downstream enterprises are not starting high. The traders are in a strong wait-and-see mood. At present, the market price of refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 25500-26500 yuan/ton, and some enterprises have not yet resumed production. The refrigerant delivery is light, and the downstream R134a market is slightly higher. Recently, the downstream refrigerant industry has not been active in procurement, and the operating rate is less than 30%. The purchase of upstream raw materials is scarce, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable.

Aftermarket forecast: in the short term, the market trend of raw fluorite is stable, and the start of the downstream refrigerant industry remains sluggish, but the refrigerant market is rising slightly, and short and long factors are jointly affected. Chen Ling, hydrofluoric acid analyst of the Business Agency, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will remain low and stable in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, as of March 8, 2023, the reference market price of domestic industrial propylene glycol was 9666 yuan/ton. Compared with March 5 (the reference price of propylene glycol was 9566 yuan/ton), the price increased by 133 yuan/ton, or 1.41%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that this week (3.05-3.08), the overall domestic propylene glycol market rose slightly and then stabilized. At the beginning of the week (March 6), supported by the high level of raw materials, the overall domestic propylene glycol market rose slightly again, with a price increase of around 100-200 yuan/ton. In the middle of the week, due to the recent high level of propylene glycol market, the wait-and-see mood increased, the new orders were carefully traded, the demand follow-up was loose, the propylene glycol continued to rise weakly, and the market as a whole entered a stable consolidation operation. As of March 8, the domestic market price of propylene glycol is around 9500-9700 yuan/ton.

Future trend analysis

At present, the overall demand for propylene glycol on the market has a weakening trend, but benefiting from the support of high raw materials and the relatively controllable inventory at the supply side, the overall state of mind on the market is good. The propylene glycol statistician of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will mostly be stable and slightly adjusted, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average market price of 55% of powdered monoammonium phosphate in China was 3320 yuan/ton on February 27, and the average market price of 55% of powdered monoammonium phosphate in China was 3350 yuan/ton on March 6. The market price of monoammonium phosphate rose 0.90% this week.

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average market price of 64% of diammonium phosphate in China was 3975 yuan/ton on February 27, and the average market price of 64% of diammonium phosphate in China was 3980 yuan/ton on March 6. The market price of diammonium phosphate rose 0.13% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of monoammonium phosphate rose this week. This Monday, the operating rate of ammonium was reduced, and the market supply was reduced. In addition to the rising prices of raw phosphorus ore and sulfur, cost support has been strengthened. Downstream still maintain demand-based procurement. As of March 6, the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei was about 3300 yuan/ton, the ex-factory price of 55 powdered ammonium in Henan was about 3250-3350 yuan/ton, and the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Sichuan was about 3300-3550 yuan/ton, which was mainly based on actual negotiation.

The price of diammonium phosphate increased slightly this week. The raw material price is high and the cost support is good. The supply of diammonium chloride is still tight and the price remains firm. Downstream just needs to be purchased, and on-site trading is acceptable. As of March 6, the 64% market price of diammonium chloride in North China was about 3950-4050 yuan/ton, and the 64% market price of diammonium chloride in Shandong was about 4000-4170 yuan/ton. The actual deal was negotiated.

In terms of raw sulfur, the price of sulfur in East China rose this week, and the price of sulfur quoted by refinery enterprises in Shandong increased. The sulfur manufacturer’s unit operates normally, the market supply is stable, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is moderate, the sulfur manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, and the terminal industry has the demand for fertilizer in spring. The operator’s attitude is optimistic, and it is expected that the sulfur market will be sorted up in the future.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the overall high level of the phosphorus ore market this week was relatively strong. At present, the traffic and investment atmosphere in the phosphate rock field is good, the demand at the downstream of the terminal is gradually rising, and the overall supply in the phosphate rock field continues to be tense.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the ammonium phosphate analyst of the Business Society, the price of raw phosphorus ore and sulfur has risen recently. Under the pressure of cost, the ammonium phosphate manufacturers have slightly increased their prices. At present, the overall supply of goods on the site is tight, but downstream procurement is cautious. It is expected that the operation of ammonium phosphate will be dominated in the short term.

Price trend

At the beginning of March, the domestic EVA market was relatively strong, and some spot prices rose. According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency, as of March 3, the average ex-factory price of domestic EVA was 16166.67 yuan/ton, which was the same as that of last week.

The domestic EVA market was generally strong in early March. On the supply side, the current industry load is generally above 78, down by nearly 2% from the previous period. The market supply level is normal, the inventory pressure of petrochemical enterprises is low, the factory price is generally strong, and the supply side has some support for the spot price. At the demand end, the delivery and delivery of photovoltaic materials are in good condition. The demand for foam shoe materials and other models in the previous week is relatively lagging, and is also slowly improving. The mentality of merchants was strengthened and the offer was firm. With the release of EVA downstream enterprises, the on-site trading is expected to strengthen.

Overall, the supply side of the EVA market was at a moderate level at the beginning of March, and the downstream demand gradually improved. On the whole, the manufacturer’s pricing supports the spot goods, and the merchants sell the goods at a high price at the beginning of the month. Although the inventory in the midstream has increased, it is expected that the domestic EVA market will be driven by the demand side dominated by photovoltaic materials in the short term and tend to be more intensive.

According to the bulk list data of the Business News Agency, the domestic TDI price trend rose first and then fell in February. The average market price of TDI at the beginning of the month was 20433.33 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 19833.33 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 600 yuan/ton within the month, with an overall decrease of 2.94%.

In February, the TDI market weakness was sorted out, the downstream of the terminal resumed production at the beginning of the month, the sponge price rose, the intra-field trading was positive, and the supplier’s attitude of supporting the market was positive, and the TDI offer rose; In the middle and late ten days, the enthusiasm for terminal procurement weakened, the downstream demand was weak, the market inquiry was depressed, the operator’s mentality was poor, and the focus of TDI transaction moved down; At the end of the month, the monthly listing price of TDI factory was raised, and the suppliers’ attitude towards the market was obvious, and the traders’ prices were raised according to the information guidance.

The upstream toluene market rose strongly, falling continuously from January to July, and rising in steps after the 7th. At the end of the month, the price was 7290 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan/ton from 7070 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, with an overall increase of 3.11%. The cost of naphtha fluctuated and rose, the price of raw materials drove the market of toluene to improve, and the expectation of upstream and downstream terminal demand was optimistic. According to the guidance of market news, the price trend of toluene continued to rise.

According to the TDI data analyst of the business agency, the capacity utilization rate of the TDI factory is low, the market spot filling is slow, and many suppliers are in the market mentality, but the downstream terminal performance is weak, the demand purchasing is insufficient, the TDI market trading is light, the supply and demand performance is stalemate, and the TDI shocks in the later stage are sorted out, and the specific attention is paid to the downstream follow-up.

According to the data of Business News Agency, the spot market price of gold on February 28, 2023 was 413.48 yuan/g, down 1.95% from the beginning of the month (February 1), and up 0.88% from the early average spot market price of 409.89 yuan/g at the beginning of the year (January 1).

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average price of silver market on February 28, 2023 was 4859.33 yuan/kg, down 0.15% per day, down 6.45% from the beginning of the month (February 1), and down 9.28% from the average price of spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), 5345 yuan/kg, down 9.28%; Compared with the early average spot market price of 4368.33 yuan/kg at the beginning of October 2022 (October 1), an increase of 11%.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year

In 2022, the rise and fall trend of precious metal gold and silver will converge, but in April and August, silver will fall deeper, and the recent recovery will be more obvious. In December, silver will continue the strong market of last month, and gold will start to consolidate at a high level. In 2023, the precious metal gold and silver will consolidate at high levels, and fall slightly in February.

Macro data of the day

The monthly rate of durable goods orders in the United States recorded – 4.5% in January, up from 5.1%, the largest decline since April 2020. The monthly rate of the contracted sales index of completed houses in the United States recorded 8.1% in January, the largest increase since June 2020.

The monthly rate of the contracted sales index of completed houses in January was 8.1%, better than the expected 1%; The Dallas Fed’s business activity index in February was – 13.5, lower than the expected 9.3.

According to the observation data of CME Federal Reserve, the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25BP in March to be 75.3%, and the expectation of raising interest rates by 50BP will fall slightly; The probability of raising interest rate by 25BP in May is 70.7%; The probability of a 25BP interest rate increase in June is 56.6%, and the probability of no interest rate increase is 23.3%. The mainstream expected peak interest rate will remain at 5.25% – 5.5%.

Position data

On February 27, SPDR gold ETF position increased by 0.29 tons to 917.61 tons; IShares silver ETF position decreased by 38.6 tons to 14966.63 tons.

Precious metal aftermarket logic and prediction

Due to its strong metal properties, silver’s rise and fall trend is affected by the non-ferrous basic market to a certain extent, and is greatly affected by the physical demand. Gold is more sensitive to macro policy factors because of its strong monetary attribute. In the short term, the price of precious metals is still subject to tightening expectations and economic recession concerns. The Federal Reserve and the central banks are facing a slowdown in the process of raising interest rates, and the leading impact of the expected rate increase on gold prices will be weakened; The impact of economic data will increase significantly and become the leading factor. In the short term, it is expected that the price of precious metals will be mainly stable and weak.