Data monitoring shows that on March 29, the polyacrylamide commodity index stood at 93.13, unchanged from yesterday, down 16.48% from the cycle’s highest point of 111.51 (2021-11-03), and up 12.35% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

Commodity market: Data monitoring shows that the mainstream market price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the domestic market remained stable at around 15242.86 yuan/ton during the week of March 27-30, 2023. This week, the manufacturer said that some environmental inspections have resumed, production is normal, inventory is sufficient, downstream demand is not strong, supply is excessive, and demand is insufficient. The atmosphere of the polyacrylamide market continues to be light.

Raw material acrylonitrile: According to data from the Business News Agency, the acrylonitrile market continued to decline slightly during the week from March 27-30. According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of March 30, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 10100 yuan/ton, down 1.7% from 10275 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. The price of raw materials fell, and the cost of acrylonitrile continued to decline; The pressure on the supply side is still there, and the demand side has a rigid need for support; Acrylonitrile market slightly weak. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to decline slightly in the future.

Raw material acrylic acid: According to data from the Business News Agency, the acrylic acid market declined slightly during the week from March 27-30, with the main price in East China on March 27th being 7225 yuan/ton, and the 30-day average price of 7175 yuan/ton, a decrease of only 0.69%. This week, the decline in the raw material propylene market was mainly due to the weakening of cost support and a slight increase in the operating rate compared to the previous period. However, the load of downstream plants and devices was not high, and the enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials through market inquiry was low. The actual transaction volume in the market was weak, with a strong cautious wait-and-see mentality. The price center of acrylic acid declined. It is expected that in the short term, the acrylic acid market may be light and wait for consolidation and operation.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to data from Business News Agency, domestic LNG prices rebounded during the week of March 27-30. As of March 30, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China was 4344 yuan/ton, up 3.08% from the average price of 4214 yuan/ton on March 27.

Future Forecast: The raw material market continues to weaken slightly, but this week, fuel prices rebounded, with mixed cost side gains and losses. The polyacrylamide supply side has sufficient spot inventory, and the construction is relatively normal. The demand for downstream demand orders continues to be weak. It is expected that the polyacrylamide market will continue to be stable, medium, and weak in the near future.

Overview of ethylene glycol market

Ethylene glycol prices fell in March. According to data from Business News Agency, on March 29, the average price of domestic oil based ethylene glycol was 4130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.14% compared to the average market price of 4308.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

On March 29, the spot price of ethylene glycol in the East China market was as follows: the spot price range for mainstream manufacturers in East China was between 4000 and 4315 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4150 yuan/ton, while the spot price range for mainstream manufacturers in Central China is 4050 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the North China market is basically stable, and the spot price of mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4200 yuan/ton.

Ethylene glycol inventory remains high

As of March 27, the inventory of ethylene glycol in East China main port was 1.0269 million tons, compared to 1.0698 million tons of ethylene glycol in East China main port on March 2, and 42900 tons of ethylene glycol were removed from the warehouse. On March 10, 2022, the inventory of ethylene glycol in East China main port was 950700 tons. Inventory is currently relatively high.

International CIF prices slightly increased

On March 28th, the CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was 510 US dollars/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 7 US dollars/ton; The CIF Southeast Asia price is 508 US dollars/ton.

There is expected to be a conversion in the second quarter

In May, devices such as Satellite Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, and Zhejiang Petrochemical are all planned to be converted to EO.

Downstream space narrows in the future

Currently, the average spot price of ethylene glycol is within a relatively low range in history, but ethylene glycol supply pressure remains in the short term. In terms of demand, the start of terminal looms has weakened slightly, and some polyester factories have production reduction plans, suppressing the upward trend in ethylene glycol prices; However, ethylene glycol is at a negative profit level, with cost side impact factors expanding and downward space narrowing. In the medium term, as the scale of device maintenance increases, there is expected to be a contraction in supply, while the expectation of weak supply and good demand in the long term remains unchanged. It is expected that in the short term, the probability of sideways shocks in the future market of ethylene glycol will increase, and the average price operating band will be around 3950-4200 yuan/ton.

According to the monitoring by the Business News Agency, the domestic polyester filament market has been volatile and strong since March 20th, with polyester FDY up 2.62%, POY up 1.68%, and polyester DTY up 1.58%. Currently, for mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the quotation for polyester POY (150D/48F) is 7500-7700 yuan/ton, the quotation for polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) is 8800-9300 yuan/ton, and the quotation for polyester FDY (150D/96F) is 8200-8400 yuan/ton.

Average price rise and fall of polyester filament market Unit: yuan/ton

Commodity/ March 20th/ March 28th/ Up and down/ Year-on-year increase and decrease

Polyester DTY/ 8868./ 9008./ 1.58%./ -7.19%

Polyester POY/ 7423./ 7548./ 1.68%./ -6.68%

Polyester FDY/ 8104./ 8316./ 2.62%./ -4.00%

The price increase this time is mainly driven by the favorable cost side. Crude oil recovery, PX spring maintenance continued, supply side decreases, and PTA spot circulation is tight. The expected increase in plant and plant production cuts and shutdowns will result in a decrease in operating load of less than 75%, but downstream polyester load remains at a high level of more than 83%, and PTA continues to destock. In terms of price, as of March 28, the average domestic PTA market price was 6294 yuan/ton, up 5.14% from March 20.

Due to the rebound in domestic demand, the terminal weaving industry has been guided by a combination of buying up and not buying down sentiment, resulting in an increase in overall orders and an improvement in active replenishment. The starting load of the weaving industry has significantly increased, and production and sales have been scaled up in the early stage. However, after the previous replenishment cycle, the recent demand follow-up appears weak, and the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has been reduced to below 70%. The downstream market will resume its downturn again, which will form a drag on the polyester market.

Analysts from the Business Agency believe that there is still good support on the cost side, but there is still uncertainty on the demand side. The pattern of weak foreign demand remains unchanged, and the recovery of domestic demand is also dominated by rigid replenishment. It is also questionable whether the subsequent demand for terminal weaving can continue to follow up. Therefore, in the short term, the price of polyester filament is mainly cautious and bullish.

Overview of ethylene glycol market

Ethylene glycol prices fell in March. According to data from Business News Agency, on March 27, the average price of domestic oil based ethylene glycol was 4130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.14% compared to the average market price of 4308.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

On March 27th, the spot price of ethylene glycol in the East China market slightly decreased, with the external execution price range of 3950-4350 yuan/ton for mainstream manufacturers in East China; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4150 yuan/ton, while the spot price range for mainstream manufacturers in Central China is 4030 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the North China market is basically stable, and the spot price of mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4200 yuan/ton.

Macroscopic factor disturbance

The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point hike in interest rates, raising the target range of the federal funds rate to 4.75% – 5%, while suggesting that future interest rate hikes may weaken. The overall chemical industry sector fell significantly in the early stage due to crude oil price factors.

With new production, the overall supply is loose

From the supply side, recently, new ethylene glycol units have been put into production, and some early maintenance units have been restarted. The pressure at the ethylene glycol supply side has rebounded in the short term.

May is a good month for transferring production

List of imports and exports

In terms of imports, the import volume of ethylene glycol in February was 625400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 39.39% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.02%; The export volume of ethylene glycol in February was 2900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 83.88% and a year-on-year increase of 1269.16%. Import arrivals in March may decline, and port inventory may show a small decrease in inventory.

News of downstream demand is negative

There are rumors in the market that polyester enterprises are reducing production. Currently, the profit performance of various types of polyester is still sluggish, and the comprehensive profit of polyester has been slightly repaired on a month-on-month basis. However, polyester inventory continues to accumulate slightly, and the absolute inventory volume remains high on a year-on-year basis. According to data, on March 23, the polyester operating rate was 86.98%, and the polyester filament production and sales were 25.65%.

Ethylene glycol inventory goes to warehouse but remains at a high level

As of March 27, the inventory of ethylene glycol in East China main port was 1.0269 million tons, compared to 1.0698 million tons of ethylene glycol in East China main port on March 2, and 42900 tons of ethylene glycol were removed from the warehouse. On March 10, 2022, the inventory of ethylene glycol in East China main port was 950700 tons. Inventory is currently relatively high.

Downstream space narrows in the future

Currently, the average spot price of ethylene glycol is within a relatively low range in history. The recent trend of crude oil has been volatile and weak, with coal prices converging strongly and short-term cost side support weakening. In addition, the supply pressure of ethylene glycol remains in the short term, and in terms of demand, the start of terminal looms has weakened slightly, and some polyester factories have production reduction plans, suppressing the upward trend in ethylene glycol prices; However, ethylene glycol is at a negative profit level, with cost side impact factors expanding and downward space narrowing. In the medium term, as the scale of device maintenance increases, there is expected to be a contraction in supply, while the expectation of weak supply and good demand in the long term remains unchanged. It is expected that in the short term, the probability of sideways shocks in the future market of ethylene glycol will increase, and the average price operating band will be around 3950-4200 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

Taking sulfuric acid rutile type titanium dioxide, which has a large volume of shipments in the domestic market, as an example, according to commodity data monitoring, the market price of titanium dioxide was basically stable this week. The average price of domestic titanium dioxide is 17116.67 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic titanium dioxide market consolidated at a high level. Overall, the domestic market has a good trading situation and low market inventory. Some manufacturers have temporarily closed orders, and enterprises have a large number of orders in hand, resulting in significant reluctance to sell, and strong market quotations. Up to now, most domestic rutile titanium dioxide quotations are between 16000-18500 yuan/ton; The quotation for anatase titanium dioxide is around 14500-15000 yuan/ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region rose this week. At present, the spot supply of titanium concentrate market is tight, and enterprises often deliver preliminary orders. The order in hand has been scheduled until next month. Miners are obviously reluctant to sell, and they are more wait-and-see, with stable and upward prices on the market. Up to now, the quoted price excluding tax for 38-42 grade titanium intermediate ore is around 1520-1550 yuan/ton, the quoted price excluding tax for 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate is around 2180-2300 yuan/ton, and the quoted price for 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is around 2350-2450 yuan/ton. In the short term, the price of titanium concentrate is relatively strong in the short term, and the actual transaction price is subject to single negotiation.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price has been lowered. The price of sulfuric acid was lowered from 268.33 yuan/ton on Monday to 255 yuan/ton on Friday, with a price increase of 4.97%. The upstream sulfur market has recently declined slightly, with average cost support. Downstream hydrofluoric acid market is low and titanium dioxide market is high. Downstream customers have a general enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

Titanium dioxide analysts from the Business Agency believe that the sulfuric acid market price has been lowered and the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region has been increased. The cost support for titanium dioxide is acceptable. Currently, the domestic titanium dioxide market has a good trading situation and low market inventory. It is expected that titanium dioxide will continue to operate at a high level in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiated separately.

1、 Price trend

Taking sulfuric acid rutile type titanium dioxide, which has a large volume of shipments in the domestic market, as an example, according to commodity data monitoring, the market price of titanium dioxide was basically stable this week. The average price of domestic titanium dioxide is 17116.67 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic titanium dioxide market was basically stable. Overall, the trading and investment situation in the domestic market is fair, with traders being cautious in picking up their goods and being more wait-and-see. Downstream, they often purchase on demand. Titanium dioxide companies have strong quotations and prices have remained stable. Up to now, most domestic rutile titanium dioxide quotations are between 16000-18500 yuan/ton; The quotation for anatase titanium dioxide is around 14500-15000 yuan/ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region rose this week. Currently, the spot supply in the market is tight, and downstream titanium dioxide enterprises mainly purchase on demand in the market. Manufacturers have issued more early orders, and miners are clearly reluctant to sell, resulting in stable and upward market prices. Up to now, the quoted price excluding tax for 38-42 grade titanium intermediate ore is around 1500-1550 yuan/ton, the quoted price excluding tax for 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate is around 2180-2280 yuan/ton, and the quoted price for 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is around 2350-2400 yuan/ton. In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate is operating at a high level, and the actual transaction price is subject to single negotiation.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price has increased. The price of sulfuric acid increased from 268.33 yuan/ton on Monday to 273.33 yuan/ton on Friday, with a price increase of 1.86%. The upstream sulfur market has recently risen slightly, with good cost support. Downstream hydrofluoric acid market is low and titanium dioxide market is high. Downstream customers have a good enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

The titanium dioxide analyst from the Business Agency believes that the sulfuric acid market price has increased, and the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region has increased. The cost support for titanium dioxide is strong, and the current domestic titanium dioxide market trading situation is acceptable. It is expected that titanium dioxide will continue to operate at a high level in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiated separately.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, copper prices have been falling in a weak trend for the past month. After hitting the bottom on March 16, there is a trend of stopping the decline and rebounding. As of the 21st, the spot price quoted was 67628.33 yuan/ton, up 0.58% from the low point on March 16 and down 8.02% year-on-year.

The US dollar index continues to decline and macro risks weaken

Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve not to raise interest rates this week. Swap contracts bet that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by more than 3% next year, and the dollar index has continued to decline. Due to the banking crisis, the market previously swung back and forth between raising interest rates by 25BP in March and not raising interest rates. However, with the help of relevant regulatory agencies and Wall Street, it is expected that the impact of the European and American banking crisis and the interest rate meeting of the European and American central banks on the macro level is approaching the end, and the macro risk is reduced.

Disturbance in copper concentrate supply decreases and supply tends to loosen

The copper mine disturbance incident in February has been alleviated, Peru’s copper mine has fully resumed production, and Grasberg copper mine and Panama’s Cobre Panama copper mine also resumed production in early March. The loose supply of copper mines remains the main theme. In February, the operating rate of China’s copper smelters was 84.87%. Although there are 3 smelters with maintenance plans in March, due to the sufficient supply of cold materials, it is expected that there will be no impact on refined copper production. In March, the operating rate of the smelters will further increase, and the domestic refined copper production will continue to grow.

End-use consumption continues to recover and downstream bargain-hunting procurement increases

Demand has entered the traditional consumption peak season, and copper downstream construction is generally expected to pick up. In February, the construction rates of enameled wire, copper pipe, copper strip, and refined copper rod were 69.81%, 68.33%, 74.17%, and 61.23%, respectively. It is expected that the month-on-month (MoM) recovery in March will be achieved. In addition, the focus of copper prices has recently fallen, and downstream bargain-hunting procurement has increased raw material inventory.

LME inventory is low

According to the historical price comparison chart of copper from the Business Society, there has been no significant seasonal peak season for copper in the past three years and March. Except for the upward trend in 2021, copper has been declining in other years.

Overall, copper fundamentals have shown a pattern of double prosperity in supply and demand, with copper concentrate supply disrupting and decreasing, and domestic electrolytic copper production increasing. However, in April, some large-scale smelting enterprises were overhauled, affecting the future supply of refined copper. Terminal consumption continues to recover, copper downstream construction is generally expected to rebound, and companies are seeking bargains to increase raw material inventory. Copper inventory warehouse receipts were low and supported. Currently, the macro risk is weakened, and it is expected that the copper price may stop falling and recover, ushering in a small upward recovery market.

According to data from the Business News Agency, the domestic maleic anhydride market rose slightly this week. As of March 19, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 7750.00 yuan/ton, up 1.04% from the price of 7670.00 yuan/ton on March 13, and up 0.65% from the same period last month.

On March 19, the maleic anhydride commodity index stood at 73.01, unchanged from yesterday, down 56.13% from the cycle’s highest point of 166.43 points (2021-12-15), and up 42.65% from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Most of the domestic phenylmaleic anhydride market was shut down this week. Downstream resin costs and terminal performance are under pressure, and maleic anhydride operations are cautious. As of the 19th, solid anhydride in Shandong was around 7800 yuan/ton, while solid anhydride in Jiangsu was around 7800 yuan/ton. There was no new price outflow from Shanxi and Hebei regions, while solid anhydride in South China was around 8000 yuan/ton.

On the upstream side, the price of pure benzene decreased slightly this week, with an average price of 7276 yuan/ton on March 13 and 7176 yuan/ton on March 16, down 1.69%. The ex-factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China was lowered to 7283.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week and 7183.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 1.37%. This week, the market for n-butane declined, and as of March 19, the price in Shandong was around 5750 yuan/ton.

According to analysts of maleic anhydride products from Business News, the price of n-butane in the upstream of maleic anhydride has declined this week, and under pressure from downstream resin costs and terminal demand, manufacturers are cautious in pursuing higher prices; The international crude oil slump is superimposed, and the buyer and seller operate cautiously; Recently, some maleic anhydride manufacturers have been shut down for maintenance, and there is currently no pressure on them to ship goods. Recently, there is strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, and it is expected that the maleic anhydride market may be dominated by weak consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to data from Business News Agency, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam on March 13 was 12300 yuan/ton, while the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam on March 17 was 12300 yuan/ton. Caprolactam prices were stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of caprolactam was stable this week. The price of raw material pure benzene fell this week, weakening cost support. The supply of caprolactam in the spot market has increased, with downstream procurement being the main demand.

The price of raw material pure benzene fell this week. The prices in East China have fallen sharply, and the news in the macro market has exacerbated the pessimistic expectations of the industry for the future, with the cargo holders actively shipping. Downstream buying is insufficient, and the offer is withdrawn. The buying sentiment in the Shandong market is cautious and the transaction is poor.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

According to caprolactam analysts from the Business Agency, the market for pure benzene, the raw material, has weakened recently, resulting in a poor market atmosphere for caprolactam. The market supply of caprolactam is gradually recovering, and downstream procurement is carefully operated. It is expected that the caprolactam market will be mainly weak in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the price index of the domestic rare earth market continued to decline, and the domestic light rare earth market declined. The rare earth index was 553 points on March 14, down 12 points from yesterday, down 45.08% from the highest point in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 104.06% from the lowest point 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The price trend of domestic metal praseodymium, neodymium oxide, metal praseodymium, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide has dropped sharply. The price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 675000 yuan/ton as of the 15th day, down 10.60% from the 8th day; The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 562500 yuan/ton, down 10% from the price on the 8th; The price of neodymium oxide was 615000 yuan/ton, down 6.11% from the price on the 8th; The price of neodymium metal was 755000 yuan/ton, down 7.36% from the price on the 8th; The price of praseodymium metal was 775000 yuan/ton, down 5.49% from the price trend on the 8th; The price of praseodymium oxide was 580000 yuan/ton, and the price trend fell by 8.66%.

In the near future, the demand of rare earth market is difficult to improve. The order situation of downstream magnetic material enterprises has remained low. Most of the magnetic material factories mainly consume the existing inventory. The demand for praseodymium and neodymium metal continues to be cold and the cost of raw materials is still hanging upside down. The product inventory of metal factories in the rare earth market continues to rise. Some metal factories have almost no transactions. Downstream procurement is very cautious, and the prices of the holders continue to decline. In the near future, the downstream procurement is cold, and the production enterprises are gradually resuming work, and the negative factors are superimposed, and the domestic light rare earth market price is significantly lower.

According to the statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles has been guaranteed. According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Industry, the production and sales of automobiles nationwide in February reached 2032000 and 1.976 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 27.5% and 19.8%, and a year-on-year increase of 11.9% and 13.5%. In February, the national production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 552000 and 525000 respectively, up 30% and 28.7% month-on-month, 48.8% and 55.9% year-on-year, and the market share reached 26.6%. Although the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles has increased, the procurement of permanent magnets in the downstream is very rare, and the market price of light rare earth has dropped sharply.

Recently, the rare earth downstream businesses have weak procurement and poor demand. In addition to the increase in upstream supply, the contradiction between supply and demand is acute, and the transaction situation is poor. In the short term, the decline of the rare earth market is difficult to change. In the long term, the new energy vehicles, wind power, and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of the rare earth industry are sustainable development. The demand in the new energy field is still guaranteed, and there is room for recovery in the rare earth industry.