In January, the market price of spandex continued to be weak, but it picked up slightly at the end of the month. According to the monitoring of the Business Agency, the average market price of the 40D specification was 35750 yuan/ton as of January 30, up 1.06% from the beginning of the month and down 39.41% year on year.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan/ton)

20D ,.30D,. 40D

Zhejiang,. 38000-43000.., 35000-41000,. 33000-38000

Shandong,. 38000-43000,. 35000-41000,. 33000-38000

Fujian,. 38000-46000,. 35000-41000,. 33000-38000

Jiangsu,. 38000-43000,. 35000-41000,. 33000-38000

In the raw material market, the price of PTMEG rose slightly in January, supported by the favorable BDO at the cost side and the maintenance of large factories in the early stage, so the overall inventory pressure was not high. Therefore, before the Spring Festival, the price of PTMEG suppliers is tentatively rising, and the market negotiation evaluation of PTMEG (1800 molecular weight) is 18000-19000 yuan/ton by the end of the month. The pure MDI market as a whole is short of cash, and the suppliers are reluctant to sell, and the focus of the mainstream negotiation has shifted upward. At present, the market reference is 17800-18200 yuan/ton of T/T barreled self-delivery.

During the Spring Festival, the turnover in Xiaoshao area of Zhejiang Province was average, and the round machine and yarn wrapping started in 1-3%; The starting level in Jiangsu is low, and the starting level in the round machine and yarn wrapping market is 1-3%; The demand in Guangdong follows slowly, and the starting level of the market for round knitting machines, yarn wrapping and warp knitting is between 1-3%. The follow-up of the overall market demand has slowed down significantly. The number of holiday factories has gradually increased, and the factories that still continue to work have also been stocked. The consumption of pre-inventory is mainly, and the number of inquiries and transactions is less. After the Spring Festival, the downstream gradually resumed work, and the demand has warmed up.

Analysts from the Business Agency believe that at present, the spandex manufacturers’ operating load has increased and the supply of goods is sufficient. The center of gravity of raw material prices is relatively strong, and the superimposed demand will gradually recover. It is expected that the spandex market will fluctuate and rise in the short term.

Price trend

In January, the trend of PA66 market in China was flat. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the average ex-factory price of domestic PA66 was 21750 yuan/ton on January 16, which was the same as the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In the near future, the market of PA66 is stable, and the spot price is running sideways. In terms of supply, the total domestic load of PA66 industry is about 65%, which is running horizontally compared with the previous period. Enterprise operation follows the trend of destocking in the early stage, and the inventory pressure is moderate, while the supply is relatively abundant. In the upstream, pure benzene, the raw material of adipic acid in China, is rising, and the cost is good; The supply side is tight, and the low inventory in the market supports adipic acid. The market rose, and the market trading center moved up in a narrow range, which strengthened the cost support for PA66. The situation in demand is weak and difficult to change. The terminal enterprises just need to follow up with the maintenance of goods, and the enterprises have entered the holiday one after another, and the goods have been cashed in before the holiday. The good news is about to be exhausted, and the buyers generally have strong resistance to high-priced goods. The smoothness of merchants’ delivery is average.

Aftermarket forecast

The spot price of PA66 stabilized in the middle of January. The market at the raw material end rose, and the support for PA66 at the cost end strengthened. The load of PA66 enterprises is stable, the ex-factory price is flat, and the overall inventory position is low. The demand side just needs to follow up with the delivery of goods, and it is expected that PA66 will continue its horizontal consolidation operation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business News Agency, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 11500 yuan/ton on January 9 and 11800 yuan/ton on January 13. Domestic caprolactam prices rose 2.61% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of caprolactam rose this week. The price of raw material pure benzene was increased, and the cost support of caprolactam was strengthened. The operation rate at the supply end increased this week. Downstream domestic PA6 polymerization plants began to follow up the demand for caprolactam replenishment, and the caprolactam market was generally strong. As of January 13, Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam settlement price was 12300 yuan/ton, and the liquid premium products were accepted and self-picked up in June.

The price of raw material pure benzene rose this week. The fundamentals of pure benzene continue to be weak, and the downstream is more wait-and-see, and the purchase intention is general; Crude oil continued to fall in the week, and the cost of pure benzene market formed a negative pressure; Downstream styrene slightly strengthened, boosting the pure benzene market. This week, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene remained stable at 6850 yuan/ton, while Shandong and Hebei adjusted 100 yuan/ton to 6950 yuan/ton.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The caprolactam analyst of the business agency believes that the recent trend of pure benzene, the raw material, has increased the supply of caprolactam on the market, and the demand for terminal replenishment has increased. It is expected that caprolactam prices will rise steadily in the short term.

The domestic acetic acid market is weak, the utilization rate of acetic acid production capacity in the field is high, the enterprise inventory is sufficient, the downstream construction is low, the demand is limited, some enterprises fall in price and stock, the market transaction center moves down, the upstream price is firm in the later stage, the enterprise cost is serious, the acetic acid price is stable, and the market situation is wait-and-see operation.

According to the monitoring of bulk data of Business News Agency, as of January 10, the average price of acetic acid in East China was 2912.50 yuan/ton, down 1.27% from the price of 2950.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and down 8.98% month-on-month. As of January 10, the market price of acetic acid in various regions during the week was as follows:

Region/ January 3/ January 10/ Price rise and fall

South China/ 3075 yuan/ton/ 3075 yuan/ton/ 0

North China/ 2850 yuan/ton/ 2850 yuan/ton/ 0

Shandong region/ 2900 yuan/ton/ 2850 yuan/ton/ -50

Jiangsu Province/ 2900 yuan/ton/ 2875 yuan/ton/ -25

Zhejiang Province/ 3000 yuan/ton/ 2975 yuan/ton/ -25

The upstream raw material methanol market fluctuated and fell. As of January 10, the average price in the domestic market was 2660 yuan/ton, down 1.42% compared with 2698.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The coal price in the cost side is stable and weak, and the methanol cost benefit disappears. The decline of crude oil and futures in the external side drives the simultaneous correction of methanol. The mainland returns to rationality, the buying of gas is weak, and the methanol market is weak.

The downstream acetic anhydride market is in a weak position. As of January 10, the factory price of acetic anhydride was 5250.00 yuan/ton, down 3.00% from the price of 5412.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The upstream acetic acid price is weak, the cost support of acetic anhydride is insufficient, the downstream demand is limited, the market trading atmosphere is general, and the price of acetic anhydride continues to decline.

The market of ethyl acetate in the downstream market was significantly reduced. As of January 10, the average ex-factory price of ethyl acetate in East China was 6900.00 yuan/ton, down 4.61% from 7233.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In terms of raw materials, the price of acetic acid was weak and down, and the cost was negative. The enthusiasm of downstream stock at the demand end was weakened, the market follow-up was weak, and the price of ethyl acetate was lower under the weak supply and demand.

According to the aftermarket forecast, the acetic acid analyst of the Business Agency believes that the operating rate of the acetic acid plant is on the high side, the supply of goods is sufficient, the demand of the downstream side is low, the on-site traffic is limited, and the market supply exceeds the demand continues to exist. However, due to the high price of acetic acid raw material methanol, the cost of the enterprise is upside down, and the short-term acetic acid price decline space is limited. It is expected that the acetic acid market will remain stable for the time being, and pay attention to the follow-up situation of the downstream.

The price of ethylene glycol rose slightly on January 10

Recently, the price of ethylene glycol was relatively stable, and the price moved up on the 10th. According to the data of Business News Agency, on January 10, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4066.67 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the beginning of the month was 4050 yuan/ton, up 0.41%.

On January 10, the spot price of ethylene glycol in the East China market was basically stable, and the spot price range of mainstream manufacturers in East China was 3900-4300 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is basically stable, and the spot price range of mainstream manufacturers in East China is 4050 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the North China market was basically stable, and the spot price of mainstream manufacturers in North China remained at 4100 yuan/ton.

Overview of fundamentals

According to the inventory data, as of January 9, the ethylene glycol inventory in the main port of East China was 892900 tons, 24300 tons more than that in the third day. The price of ethylene glycol is supported to some extent by the month-on-month inventory, but the inventory of ethylene glycol port is still relatively high. On the demand side, with the advent of the traditional off-season, the polyester operating load fell to a low level. Affected by the epidemic situation, the short-term terminal factory was seriously short of work, the weaving industry had an early holiday, and the recent operating load continued to decline rapidly. From the supply side, after the recent centralized maintenance of some enterprise devices, they began to restart, and the supply pressure began to increase.

Aftermarket forecast

At present, the price of ethylene glycol is low, the impact factor of cost side is enlarging, and the basic level of ethylene glycol is relatively weak. In the short term, the upward space of ethylene glycol price is limited, and the platform is mainly operated in shock.

According to the data monitored by the Business Agency, the PP market in the first ten days of January turned from strong to weak, the drawing brand fell in shock, and the fiber products also fell. As of January 9, the mainstream price of T30S (wire drawing) offered by domestic producers and traders was about 7741.67 yuan/ton, up and down by – 1.48% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the recent consolidation of the propylene market, the overall market fluctuation is limited, and the price remains stable. The overall inventory of Shandong propylene market is controllable, and the refinery offer is firm. International oil prices plunged last week, affecting the cost side and showing signs of price loosening. The current demand of propylene market needs to be improved, and the preparation of goods before the holiday is coming to an end. It is expected that the propylene market will be sorted and operated in a narrow range.

The price of propylene was stable and slightly changed, and the finishing was weak. In the first ten days of January, PP cost support was maintained. In terms of industry load, last week, the PP polymerization enterprises were both overhauled and resumed work, and the industry load was on the high side to adjust the operation. The supply of goods in the field is sufficient, and the inventory position is rising rapidly. In terms of demand, the operating rate of the main downstream plastic knitting enterprises increased in a narrow range, and decreased year-on-year. The stock situation of terminal enterprises is not as expected, the market momentum is low, and the spot price is weak.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the Business Agency, as of January 9, the spot price of domestic fiber PP was generally flat. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) is about 7916.67 yuan/ton, with a rise of – 2.66% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of – 4.23% year-on-year. In the early stage, the load of downstream non-woven enterprises, the main force of PP fiber material, rose, and the demand of terminal enterprises tended to fall before the festival in the near future. The digestion speed of non-woven end products is acceptable, and the enterprises began to be cautious about the replenishment of fiber PP due to the approaching holiday. It is expected that the consolidation operation will be maintained in the short term.

In terms of melt-blown materials, the melt-blown PP market stagnated in the first ten days of January. As of January 9, the average price quoted by the domestic melt-blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Business Society was about 10866.67 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase was – 2.4%, with a year-on-year increase of+14.19%. In terms of international health events, the optimization of the disposal of health events in China last month led to an increase in the demand for masks. Social consumption has an obvious pull on medical melt-blown cloth materials, but the recent demand tends to ease. Domestic and overseas demand has not been significantly boosted. At present, the supply of melt-blown materials in the market is abundant for a long time, and the saturation of domestic melt-blown materials and cloth enterprises is high. Therefore, the price of melt-blown materials may be stable at the present time when the demand momentum slows down.

Aftermarket forecast

PP analysts of the Business Agency believe that the polypropylene market fell in a narrow range in the first ten days of January. The market of raw material propylene is stable and small, and the cost support is maintained. As soon as the terminal enterprises gradually entered the pre-holiday mode, the intra-field trading began to weaken, and the buyers were cautious to wait and see. It is expected that the rapid rise of inventory will have a negative impact on PP market, and PP market may continue to be weak in the short term.

Price trend

In early January, the domestic ABS market was weak and the price was generally stable. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price on January 6 was 11750 yuan/ton, which was the same as the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: the recent overall performance of ABS upstream three materials is fair. Among them, acrylonitrile increased in a narrow range. This week, the cost support of acrylonitrile was temporarily stable, and there was no significant increase in downstream demand. In addition, the overall pressure to restart after the short stop of Lihuayi on the supply side remained. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will be weak and consolidated in the later period.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market has risen by a narrow margin. This week, the supply is relatively stable. Some downstream replenishment needs follow up before the festival, which has boosted the spot market. During the week, the external market rose slightly, and the prices of domestic mainstream suppliers increased actively. At the same time, after the festival, some manufacturers in Shandong Province increased their prices significantly, which boosted the market

This week, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong was corrected after rising. Pure benzene market fluctuated and cost support fluctuated. In the early stage, futures drove up, but the downstream operating rate was affected by public health events, and just needed procurement to maintain production. It is expected that the styrene market will continue to be weak in the short term.

In terms of supply: this week, the ABS industry has maintained a high level of load, the current plant commencement is stable, and the supply of goods on the site continues to be abundant. Due to the supply pressure of enterprises to a certain extent, the inventory position rises and the ex factory price is under pressure.

Demand: At present, downstream factories, including the main terminal household appliances industry, are preparing goods step by step, and the stock preparation before the festival is basically completed on the market. Recently, demand tends to be stable, and goods are normally shipped on the market. Buyers and merchants follow the market with stable performance.

Future market forecast

At the beginning of January, the trend of the three upstream materials of ABS was mixed, which generally supported the cost side of ABS. The petrochemical plant started at a high level and the supply was stable. Before the end of the demand period, the goods preparation support was average, the seller’s offer was firm, and the market was strong. With the good stock tide, it is expected that the ABS market will be weak in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of flake caustic soda will rise as a whole in 2022. The average market price at the beginning of the year is about 3500 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the year is 4783.33 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 36.67%. The lowest level in the year is about 3500 yuan/ton in early January, the highest level in the year is about 4866.67 yuan/ton on June 30, and the maximum amplitude in the year is 39.05%

In the first quarter, it rose rapidly and then fell back. At the beginning of January, the average price of flake caustic soda market was 3500 yuan/ton, rising to about 4400 yuan/ton on February 21, with a price increase of 25.71%. The price rose from January to February, mainly due to the tight supply of liquid caustic soda, which is good for flake caustic soda. The market transaction and investment are active, the supply of flake caustic soda market is not much, and the enterprises have many low inventories. In addition, the price rise of liquid caustic soda supports the price rise of flake caustic soda. The price of flake caustic soda decreased by 3933.33 yuan/ton from 4400 yuan/ton on February 21, and the price decreased by 10.61%. Because the early shipment is good, the flake caustic soda starts relatively high at this stage, but the downstream receiving is more ordinary than the early shipment, and the enterprise’s shipment turns light.

In the second quarter, the price of flake caustic soda continued to rise at this stage. On April 1, the average market price of flake caustic soda was 3933.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of June, the average market price was 4866.67 yuan/ton, up 23.73%. At this stage, the flake caustic soda manufacturers have no inventory pressure, and due to the impact of public health events, the transportation is limited, the supply of goods in the market is tight, and the price of flake caustic soda is rising. In addition, the supply of liquid caustic soda is also tight. Some data show that the capacity of caustic soda maintenance devices in Shandong at this stage is about 1.07 million tons, accounting for about 10% of the total capacity in Shandong.

In the third quarter, the price of flake caustic soda at this stage showed a “W” trend. The price of flake caustic soda fell in July. At the beginning of July, the average market price of flake caustic soda was 4866.67 yuan/ton, and on July 31, the average market price of flake caustic soda was 4500 yuan/ton, down 7.53%. At present, the operating rate of flake caustic soda enterprises is high, and the market supply is increasing, but the demand side just needs to purchase, and the on-site purchasing atmosphere is light. On August 1, the average market price was 4466.67 yuan/ton. On August 28, the price of flake caustic soda was 4800 yuan/ton, up 7.46%. In northwest China, the supply side was overhauled by some enterprises. The market supply in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia was tight, the pre-sale time of enterprises was long, and the shipment of enterprises was smooth. From August 29 to the end of September, the price of flake caustic soda was consolidated, down from 4700 yuan/ton to 4666.67 yuan/ton. At this stage, the domestic flake caustic soda market was mainly stable and wait-and-see. The merchants had a certain bearish sentiment towards the future market, and the general market was maintained at this stage.

In the fourth quarter, after the price of flake caustic soda rose, it tended to consolidate. The average market price at the beginning of this quarter was 4666.67 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of this quarter was 4783.33 yuan/ton, up 2.5%. The main reason for the upward trend at this stage is that the price of flake caustic soda in northwest China has been supported to a certain extent due to the impact of public health events, traders have actively entered the market, and the trading atmosphere is good. 11. In December, the price of flake caustic soda tended to consolidate, and the workload of downstream parts of flake caustic soda decreased. The demand for flake caustic soda was average, and the downstream parts mainly needed to purchase, while the enterprise shipments were average.

Upstream caustic soda

According to the survey data of business cooperatives, the price of caustic soda will rise and fall in 2022, and fluctuate up and down into waves. According to the data, the price of caustic soda at the beginning of the year was about 1000 yuan/ton. On December 31, the price was about 1128 yuan/ton, up 12.8%. The lowest point of the year was 917.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of February, the highest point of the year was in the middle of October, the price was about 1332 yuan/ton, and the maximum amplitude of the year was 45.18%.

Analysts from the business community believe that the price of flake caustic soda is mainly stable at this stage, the market trading atmosphere is general, and the downstream mainly purchases on demand. Enterprises have planned to prepare for procurement near the Spring Festival, but the supply and demand of both sides are playing games, and the procurement volume is also relatively limited. It is comprehensively estimated that the price of flake caustic soda in January may continue to fluctuate in a narrow range. However, as the weather turns warmer after the year, the starting load of downstream enterprises of flake caustic soda will be increased, and the demand for flake caustic soda may rise. The price may rise, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the PA66 market in 2022 began to run in a weak position at the beginning of the year at 36500 yuan/ton. As of January 2, 2023, the price of PA66 was 21750 yuan/ton, down 40.41% for the whole year, with a deep decline.

The market trend of PA66 in 2022 is mainly divided into two stages:

The first stage: the overall decline stage. According to the monitoring of the business community, the average price of PA66 was 36500 yuan/ton on January 1, and fell to an annual low of 20750 yuan/ton as of July 29, a range drop of 43.15%. PA66 fell in the first phase of 2022 for nearly eight months. On the whole, the fundamentals of the industry weakened. Public health events affect logistics and shipping, and the geographical contradictions in Europe drive the petrochemical industry chain to fluctuate. Multiple negative factors all have a negative impact on the PA66 market to varying degrees, but the main negative factors focus on the supply and demand contradiction. As the market rose last year, the cost of the downstream industry will be under pressure in 2022. Superimposed by the impact of global inflation economic environment, small and medium-sized terminal businesses will leave the market, and market demand will be deeply trapped in the mismatch between supply and demand. At the same time, the upstream supply is relatively abundant at this stage, and the support for PA66 spot is insufficient. Superimposed by the abundant supply of PA66, the spot price at this stage is almost falling at a uniform rate.

The second stage: weak shock stage. According to the monitoring of the business community, the average price of PA66 will be 21750 yuan/ton from 20750 yuan/ton on July 29 to 21750 yuan/ton on January 2, 2023. The price will rise first and then decline, and the overall weakness will fluctuate, with an overall increase of 4.82%. At this stage, as the traditional peak demand season “golden nine and silver ten” drives the demand, boosting the trading of PA66 industry, the price rises temporarily. However, on the whole, the consumption release in the peak demand season of 2022 was less than expected. In addition, the load of downstream enterprises was low for a long time. After the price rise, the market was frozen until the middle of November, and the market fell again.

Overall, the trend of PA66 market in 2022 is mainly affected by the following aspects:

The industry maintains rapid development, and loose supply is unstoppable

In 2022, the domestic PA66 industry will continue to expand production and capacity, and the total capacity of domestic PA66 will reach 590000 tons/year by the end of 2021. In 2022, the capacity has been realized about 161000 tons/year. If the projects under construction in Shandong with an annual output of 40000 tons can be put into production on time, the domestic PA66 capacity will reach 791000 tons/year by the end of the year. Among the domestic PA66 material production capacity distribution, the basic category products are relatively concentrated. The market competition is fierce, forming a certain pressure on the market. In addition, China plans to increase the capacity of PA66 by more than 3 million tons in 2023-2027, which will keep the industry developing at a high speed for a long time. At the same time, the domestic market will gradually become more relaxed, and the supply side pressure may further pressure the spot market.

The demand side of downstream enterprises with low load dragged down PA66 market

The downstream of PA66 is mainly concentrated in industrial silk, automobile industry and other fields. In 2022, the overall demand of downstream enterprises will be insufficient, and PA66 will be in the pattern of supply and demand contradiction for a long time. At the beginning of the year, due to the high price of PA66 and the impact of the inflation environment on the real enterprises, most downstream small and medium-sized enterprises were affected by this. The profitability of enterprises was poor and the stock of goods contracted. In addition, in recent years, the overall growth rate of downstream enterprises is lower than the capacity expansion rate of PA66. In the next few years, the supply and demand mismatch of PA66 may be profound and long-term.

Raw materials fall, PA66 cost end support collapses

Adipic acid will decline significantly in 2022 as a whole. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of January 2, 2023, the average spot price of adipic acid in China will be 10000 yuan/ton, down 19.61% compared with 12440 yuan/ton at the beginning of last year. The market will be differentiated from high to low throughout the year. In addition, the fluctuation of crude oil has driven the market of pure benzene to weaken, and the support of adipic acid feed end has weakened. In terms of adiponitrile, with the successful production of the first set of adiponitrile in China, it marks the beginning of the localization process of adiponitrile, and the planning for new production capacity of adiponitrile and hexamethylene diamine has sprung up like mushrooms. The process of China’s internal market growing out of nothing and adiponitrile gradually getting rid of import dependence is also the process of PA66′s cost support gradually decreasing. In 2022, the overall trend of PA66 raw materials will decline, and the price support for PA66 will collapse.

Future market forecast: The analysts of PA66 from the business community believe that the capacity of PA66 will expand steadily in 2022, the demand of downstream enterprises will lag behind, and the contradiction between supply and demand will gradually spread. The upstream adipic acid fell, the supply of hexamethylene diamine was unstable, and the load of PA66 enterprise was not high in the second half of the year, causing the enterprise’s loss to expand. On the macro level, the current global inflationary economic environment remains unchanged, the wide fluctuation of oil prices driven by European geopolitical conflicts, the rebound of domestic health events, and the devaluation of the RMB have all had negative effects on the PA66 market to varying degrees. To sum up, in 2022, the bad news of PA66 industry will be superimposed, and the activities will tend to be conservative, with average market momentum. It is expected that PA66 market will continue to weaken due to insufficient demand.