Price trend

 

PVA 0588 ( PVA BP05)

Recently, the weak market of domestic EVA market has continued, and the price drop has been particularly concentrated in the past two weeks. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic EVA was 17566.67 yuan/ton on November 27, and 13800 yuan/ton on December 11, a drop of 21.44% in half a month.

 

Cause analysis

 

Raw materials:

 

At present, the upstream ethylene raw material side is weak, and the supply side has news of the resumption of Korean equipment, leading to bearish sentiment in the market. Downstream users purchase cautiously, and the offer price is stable and weak. Vinyl acetate is in the traditional off-season market. In addition, the port has abundant supply of goods, so the market momentum is generally weak. All raw materials have limited support for EVA.

 

Supply:

 

In the last half month, the load of domestic EVA manufacturers increased from about 60% to 71%, and the total output in half a month was about 58500 tons. Market supply is abundant, inventory pressure is high, and competition is fierce. The supply side’s support for spot goods was poor, and petrochemical enterprises significantly reduced the ex factory price, mostly around 3000-5000 yuan/ton.

 

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Demand:

 

In the near future, EVA demand continues to be weak, and the market trading atmosphere is bleak. Downstream procurement is just in demand and consumption is insufficient. Among them, the shipment smoothness of photovoltaic materials is particularly poor, and the demand for foaming materials has not improved, so it is hard to be optimistic. Businessmen continued to be pessimistic, and the offer continued to fall with the petrochemical plant. There is a large space for negotiation of actual orders in the market, and the operation is mainly to give up profits and take orders.

 

Future market forecast

 

To sum up, EVA market has fallen rapidly since half a month ago, and the main negative factor is the persistence of the market’s staged supply and demand mismatch pattern. There is ample supply of goods and high inventory. Downstream enterprises are cautious, just need to supplement the warehouse to follow up the lag, and the market trading atmosphere is cold. At the same time, the upstream ethylene and vinyl acetate market is weak, which lacks support for EVA. After half a month’s sharp fall, EVA’s price position has become closer to the cost price. Although the supply pressure is difficult to improve in the short term, it is expected that the domestic EVA market will be narrowed by the bottoming of the cost line.

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Price trend

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of December 7, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas was 7980 yuan/ton, which was higher than the average price of 4900 yuan/ton on December 1. The price of liquefied natural gas increased by 3080 yuan/ton on the seventh day, or 62.86%.

 

Mainstream market

 

In the first week of December, domestic LNG prices rose continuously. The price of liquefied natural gas in domestic mainstream regions has risen, and the price of liquefied natural gas in most regions has exceeded the 8000 yuan mark.

 

Offer of LNG in domestic mainstream market on December 7:

 

Region./Quote

Inner Mongolia/7500-8150

Shaanxi/7800-8030

Shanxi Province/6900-8100

Ningxia/7500-8100

Hebei/6800-8300

Henan Province/7250-8100

Shandong/7700-8600

Cost side

 

At 14:00 p.m. on December 6, PetroChina supplied feed gas to Northwest Fluid Plant (December 8-14) for auction. The transaction price was 5-5.1 yuan/m3, the low price was 2.42 yuan/m3 higher than that of the previous period, and the high price was 2.46 yuan/m3 higher than that of the previous period. The transaction volume was 21 million m3, 14 million m3 lower than that of the previous period, and there was no auction. The price of feed gas rose sharply, and the amount of feed gas dropped. Driven by the cost, the price of domestic liquefied natural gas soared rapidly, and the price of liquid plants around the country increased many times. On December 6, the daily increase exceeded 1000 yuan.

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

Supply side

 

At present, the supply of liquefied natural gas in the domestic market is reduced, and some liquid plants are stopped due to gas restriction. In addition, the supply of feed gas is reduced, so the liquid plants have a strong attitude of price fixing. In the case of tight supply side, the transaction price in domestic mainstream regions has risen significantly, and the liquor factory has a strong attitude of price fixing. The domestic gas continued to rise, the sea gas shipment improved, and the sea gas price also continued to rise.

 

Demand side

 

In recent days, the domestic temperature continues to drop, the cooling stimulates the increase of gas demand, and the on-site replenishment increases. In addition, the control of epidemic situation in many places has been lifted to ensure smooth shipment. The traders’ hoarding mentality has increased, and the market is mainly bullish.

 

Future market forecast

 

Liquefied natural gas analysts from the business community believe that the price of feed gas has risen sharply recently, and the cost of the liquid plant has increased. The supply of liquefied natural gas in the field was reduced, and the cooling led to a small increase in downstream demand. Under the multiple favorable conditions, the domestic LNG market rose sharply. It is expected that the price of LNG will continue to rise in the short term, but it has been rising for several days. It is recommended to operate cautiously.

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According to the monitoring of bulk data by the business community, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has risen recently. On the first day, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 7700.00 yuan/ton, and on the sixth day, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 7941.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.14%. The price fell 3.15% year on year.

 

PVA 0588 ( PVA BP05)

styrene

 

Recently, the styrene market price has risen. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent price of styrene has been dominated by shocks, and this week’s price correction. The market of pure benzene was consolidated, and the cost support was average. Although the downstream is just in demand, the purchase intention is good, which has certain support for the market. The port inventory may have a small drop expectation, which is good for the styrene market. The short-term styrene market is expected to be dominated by gains.

 

In terms of raw materials, recently, pure benzene has rebounded slightly, and the fundamentals of pure benzene are poor. East China ports have accumulated inventory, and the supply side continues to increase; Downstream market is generally weak, and just need to buy. The trend of superimposed crude oil is weak, and the cost support is poor. The price of pure benzene fell due to multiple negative pressures. After the fall of pure benzene, the downstream buying recovered, and prices rebounded slightly in the coming weekend. At the beginning of the week, there were about 141000 tons of pure benzene in East China Port, an increase of about 22000 tons compared with last week.

 

In terms of downstream, the three major downstream of styrene rose and fell at different levels. At present, the PS market is in a narrow range, the upstream styrene price continues to rise, the downstream demand remains strong, and the shipping pace of merchants is slow. The quotation of mainstream brands excluding tax refers to: Zhenjiang Chimei PG33, 9670 yuan/ton, Taiwan’s 5250, 9300 yuan/ton, Ningbo’s 535N, 9290 yuan/ton, Shanghai SECCO 123P, 10070 yuan/ton, and Guangzhou’s 525, 8770-8800 yuan/ton

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

Recently, EPS price fluctuated slightly. Overall transaction weakened month on month. The average price of EPS ordinary materials is 10460 yuan/ton. The buying enthusiasm is not high. The EPS market price is weak. The manufacturer maintains a stable price for shipment, and the terminal demand is sluggish.

 

At the beginning of December, the domestic ABS market was stable. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic ABS on December 6 was 11800 yuan/ton, up or down by – 26.55% compared with the same period last year. Recently, the load of ABS industry has been adjusted in a narrow range. At present, the overall commencement of the plant is maintained at more than 90%, and the supply of goods on the site continues to be abundant. The enterprise was dragged down by the raw material side, and the factory price was lowered. At present, downstream factories, including the main terminal household appliances industry, have poor enthusiasm for stock preparation, and the overall market trading is weak. The traditional peak demand season has ended, and the overall demand for support has dropped. The wait-and-see attitude of buyers increased.

 

In the near future, the port styrene inventory has shrunk slightly, and the spot supply is expected to decline. Downstream procurement will remain just in demand, and the styrene market is expected to rise slightly.

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The price of acetic anhydride rose first and then fell in November

 

PVA 0599 (PVA BF05)

According to the data monitored by the business association, the price of acetic anhydride fell in a volatile manner this week. As of December 5, the price of acetic anhydride was 5700 yuan/ton, down 1.16% from 5766.67 yuan/ton on November 27. The decline of acetic anhydride remained this week, and the price of acetic anhydride fell slightly.

 

The price of acetic acid fell sharply this week

 

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It can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid in the business community that as of December 5, the price of acetic acid was 3307.50 yuan/ton, down 0.75% from 3332.50 yuan/ton on November 27. The price of acetic acid fell sharply this week, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride increased.

 

Methanol prices fell sharply this week

 

It can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of the business community that as of December 5, the methanol price was 2670 yuan/ton, down 5.04% from 2811.67 yuan/ton on November 27. Methanol prices fell in shock this week. Market insiders entered the market cautiously. The methanol market fell weakly, and acetic anhydride fell under great pressure.

 

Future outlook

 

According to the acetic anhydride data analysts of the business community, due to the impact of the epidemic, acetic acid enterprises have difficulty in shipping. With the relaxation of epidemic control, transportation has resumed, and the price of acetic acid is weak and stable; Downstream demand remained weak, while acetic anhydride prices fell in shock. In the future, the cost of acetic anhydride is weak and the demand is weak, and the price of acetic anhydride is weak and stable.

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Price trend

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of December 2, the average price of domestic LNG was 5010 yuan/ton, which was higher than the average price of 4022 yuan/ton on November 28. The domestic LNG price rose by 24.56% this week.

 

Mainstream market

 

As of December 2, the offer of LNG in domestic mainstream market:

 

Region,. Quote

Inner Mongolia,. 4850-5300

In Shaanxi,. 4800-5450

Shanxi,. 4700-5500

Ningxia,. 5100-5150

Hebei,. 5200-5600

Henan,. 5500-5800

Sichuan,. 5300-5600

Shandong,. 5950-6000

Cost side

 

On November 29, PetroChina (from December 1 to December 7) bid for feed gas, and the final transaction price was 2.58-2.64 yuan/m3. The amount of feed gas delivered was all traded, and there was no auction. Due to the rise of raw material prices, the liquid factory quickly raised the prices, and the price mentality was high.

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

Supply side

 

The domestic LNG market is well supplied, the liquid plants are actively reducing their stocks, and the over-the-counter trading is improving. Due to snowfall weather and epidemic control in some areas, transportation is blocked and supply is affected.

 

Demand side

 

This week, domestic cold air hit, cold wave and cooling weather occurred frequently, LNG demand increased, and downstream replenishment increased. Due to the rising market demand, the price of LNG continued to rise.

 

Future market forecast

 

Liquefied natural gas analysts from the business community believe that the cost of the liquid plant has increased recently due to the rise in feed gas prices. The domestic weather is cooling, and the demand for natural gas is getting warmer. The price of liquefied natural gas has risen sharply. The cold wave in some areas has weakened due to the greater uncertainty of weather. It is expected that the rise of LNG will weaken in the short term, but there is still room for growth. It is recommended to operate cautiously.

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