Overview of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of the business community, the average early price of the silver market on December 29 was 5246.33 yuan/kg, down 1.80% on a daily basis, up 3.57% from the average early price of the spot market at the beginning of the month (December 1) of 5065.33 yuan/kg; Compared with the early average price of spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), 4770 yuan/kg, an increase of 9.99%.

On December 29, the spot market price of gold was 408.51 yuan/g, down 0.04% on a daily basis, 0.64%% higher than the early average of 405.91 yuan/g in the spot market price at the beginning of the month (December 1); Compared with the early average price of 372.37 yuan/kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), the increase was 9.71%.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Precious metal prices fell slightly on the 29th, and the fundamentals remained unchanged

The three major stock indexes of the US stock market fell again, and the market risk sentiment was suppressed again. Precious metal prices fell slightly on the 29th.

On the last trading day (December 28), the gold trading volume of Shanghai Gold Exchange was 15594 kg, up 9.00% from the previous trading day. Silver turnover was 353170 kg, down 33.03% from the previous trading day. The gold inventory of the previous exchange was 3339 kg, unchanged from the previous trading day. Silver’s inventory was 7550 kg higher than the previous trading day to 2080412 kg. The newly announced position of gold SPDR ETF was 918.51 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The position of silver SLV ETF was 14574.01 tons, up 48.65 tons from the previous trading day.

After the boots of the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of interest rate increase were put on the ground in December, the current tight monetary policy is still far away from turning, investors’ investment interest in precious metals has been limited, and ETF positions are still at a stage low.

Precious metal currency attribute enhancement

On the news side, as the Egyptian pound, the currency of Egypt, has been weakening, the price of Egyptian gold has recently shown an upward trend. At the same time, under the influence of a new trade rule, the demand for gold in Egypt has recently increased sharply. Multiple factors have led to a sharp rise in the price of Egyptian gold, which once hit the highest level in the history of domestic gold prices this month. Egypt’s domestic inflation continues to be high. Data show that Egypt’s core inflation rate rose to 18.7% last month, a new high in the past five years. In order to curb inflation, the Bank of Egypt has taken a series of measures, including several rounds of substantial interest rate increases.

Silver performs better than gold

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent one year

In the long term, the trend of precious metal prices tends to be the same, with slightly different amplitudes. Recently, silver has gained a relatively large amount.

Future market of precious metals

At present, the obvious performance of the US economy entering recession is increasing, including the shrinking of manufacturing industry prosperity and the rising number of enterprise layoffs. The space for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates is gradually narrowing, and the increase of interest rates depresses the price of precious metals. However, recently, the monetary attribute of precious metals has been strengthened, supporting precious metals to a certain extent. In the short term, it is expected that the overall volatility of the precious metals market will be dominated in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of baking soda was temporarily stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the weekend was 2525 yuan/ton, down 15.36% year on year. On December 26, the sodium bicarbonate commodity index was 167.92, up 0.33 points from yesterday, down 28.80% from the peak of 235.84 (2021-11-10) in the cycle, and up 90.23% from the lowest point of 88.27 on December 22, 2020. (Note: Period refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business community, the price of baking soda is temporarily stable, and the downstream market is in general demand recently. The current price of baking soda in Henan is about 2500-2700 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of soda ash upstream of bicarbonate this week is now about 2550-2750 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of light soda ash in East China. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2650-2750 yuan/ton. At present, the inventory of soda ash enterprises is about 320000 tons, and the overall operating rate is about 89%.

Demand: downstream medicine, textile and food demand for baking soda is average. In terms of raw materials, according to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of soda ash was consolidated this week. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of soda ash this week was stable and small. The average market price of light soda ash was 2638 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2640 yuan/ton at the weekend. The price rose by 0.08%, down 12.73% compared with the same period last year. In the downstream, medicine, textile and food often purchase sodium bicarbonate on demand. In a comprehensive way, the price of sodium bicarbonate may be maintained in a short-term or consolidation operation, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of soda ash this week was largely stable and slightly dynamic. The average market price of light soda ash from the beginning of the week to the weekend was 2640 yuan/ton, down 4.86% compared with the same period last year. On December 21, the commodity index of light soda ash was 135.59, unchanged from yesterday, down 28.30% from the highest point of 189.10 (2021-11-07) in the cycle, and up 114.71% from the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the overall price of soda ash this week is mainly stable, and the price is large, stable and small. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2550-2750 yuan/ton. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2650-2750 yuan/ton. At present, the inventory of soda ash enterprises is about 290000 tons.

Demand: According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of glass was stable and slightly changed this week. The average market price from Monday to the weekend was 17.99 yuan/ton, down 30.08% year on year. In terms of Shahe in North China, the enthusiasm for downstream replenishment is high in the near future, and the overall production and marketing situation is good. The overall production and sales of the market in East China were fair, and the market quotation rose slightly. The overall production and sales in central China are fairly good, and the downstream supplies are replenished on demand, and the market price is relatively stable. The spot market of glass in South China is general, and it is mainly purchased on demand.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 2 kinds of rising commodities, 0 kinds of falling commodities and 3 kinds of falling commodities in the price rise and fall list of chlor alkali industry in the 50th week of 2022 (12.12-12.16). The main commodities that rose were caustic soda (1.08%) and PVC (0.55%); The average rise or fall this week was 0.33%.

Analysts from the business community believe that: according to the survey data of the business community, the overall price of domestic soda ash is largely stable and slightly dynamic. Recently, some soda ash enterprises have maintained low inventory, and the overall trading and investment atmosphere is ordinary, but the downstream of soda ash is still mainly wait-and-see attitude. The game between upstream and downstream supply and demand is comprehensively predicted that the price of soda ash will fluctuate in a narrow range in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic PTA market showed a slight rebound trend on December 7. As of December 20, the average price of the East China market was 5444 yuan/ton, up 6.43%, up 19.40% year on year.

PTA unit maintenance has increased. Ineos has shut down 1.1 million tons, Eason Dalian 2.25 million tons, and Yangzi Petrochemical 650000 tons for maintenance. Some units have reduced their load to 50% to 90%. The overall operating rate remains around 66%, and the supply has declined in the short term.

In the international crude oil market, the leakage led to the closure of the Keystone pipeline system with a daily oil delivery volume of 600000 barrels at the border between the United States and Canada, which led to the recent rebound in oil prices. However, if it is restarted later, its supporting role will weaken. In addition, it is difficult to be optimistic about the supply and demand fundamentals in the future, and the risk on the demand side is approaching step by step. In the future, the oil market is still facing the pressure of fundamentals, and there is no lack of possibility for crude oil to continue bottoming out. As of December 19, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was USD 75.38/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was USD 79.80/barrel.

From the downstream perspective, with the rising price of the raw material end looming, the terminal market has exploded under a series of positive incentives, and weaving manufacturers have stepped out to purchase raw materials. The market has entered the periodic replenishment stage, and production and sales have increased dramatically. The polyester market quotation in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continued to rise, and the starting load rebounded to more than 50%. Some weaving enterprises postponed the original parking plan from mid December to the end of December or early January.

Analysts from the business community believe that the PTA operating rate has remained low since December, but with the gradual introduction of new devices, the pressure on the supply side is still large. In addition, the downstream weaving market is about to enter a holiday state, and reducing the operating rate is bound to hit the raw material procurement. It is expected that the supply increment superposition terminal will enter the seasonal slack season. It is expected that the PTA accumulation pattern will maintain, which will still suppress the upward trend of PTA prices.

According to the data of the business community, the average price of silver market in the morning on December 19 was 5237 yuan/kg, up 2.58% from the average price of spot market in the early morning of the month (December 1), 5065.33 yuan/kg; The average price of spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1) was 4770 yuan/kg, up 8.93%.

On December 19, the spot market price of gold was 405.88 yuan/g, down 0.007% from the early average of 405.91 yuan/g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (December 1); Compared with the early average price of 372.37 yuan/kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), the increase was 8.99%.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent one year

In the long term, the trend of precious metal prices tends to be the same, with slightly different amplitudes. Recently, silver has gained a relatively large amount.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in line with market expectations, and speculative enthusiasm is relatively insufficient

At the beginning of the week, the US announced that the same month on month growth of November CPI and core CPI was lower than expected. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50BP as scheduled, in line with market expectations. After the boots of the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of interest rate increase were put on the ground in December, the probability of monetary policy turning loose in the short term is small, and the probability of interest rate increase slowing is large. Therefore, from the perspective of investment, speculative interest has not been stimulated. As of December 16, the position of the world’s largest SPRD gold ETF fund was about 910.4 tons, unchanged from last week; The position of the largest SLV silver ETF fund in the world is about 14548 tons, which is 182 tons less than last week; According to relevant data, the total amount of gold delivered from the Shanghai Gold Exchange in October was 98 tons, down 81 tons month on month and 38 tons month on month.

Precious metal currency attributes strengthen, and central bank data is good

According to the report released by the World Gold Council in November, in the third quarter of 2022, central banks around the world purchased 399 tons of gold, worth about $20 billion, more than four times that of the same period last year. Up to now, central banks around the world have purchased 673 tons of gold in 2022, hitting a 55 year high. The monetary attribute of gold is strengthening, and the short-term energy price is supported.

Future market of precious metals

At present, the obvious performance of the US economy entering recession is increasing, including the shrinking of manufacturing industry prosperity and the rising number of enterprise layoffs. The space for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates is gradually narrowing, and the increase of interest rates depresses the price of precious metals. However, recently, the monetary attribute of precious metals has been strengthened, supporting the gold price to a certain extent, and the probability of sideways shocks is expected to increase in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, the nickel price rose first and then fell this week. As of December 16, spot nickel quoted 223033.33 yuan/ton, down 0.62% from the beginning of the week and up 53.32% year on year.

According to the weekly ups and downs chart of the business community, in the past 12 weeks, the nickel price rose by 6, fell by 5 and leveled off by 1. Recently, the nickel price has fallen slightly after its strength.

Nickel industry chain

On the macro level, the Federal Reserve raised the interest rate by 50bp as scheduled, and the benchmark interest rate rose to 4.25-4.5%. The official speech was slightly hawkish. In addition, retail sales in the United States and China News Agency’s zero data in November fell back more than expected, with poor data.

On the supply side: Nova Nickel Mine in Western Australia recently announced that it would suspend nickel production for about four weeks, and nickel soared last week due to accidental events; The main mining areas in the Philippines enter the rainy season, and the shipment volume is small. The export of nickel ore is already at a low level.

In terms of demand: As the end of the year is approaching, some stainless steel prices have risen due to the positive impact of the downstream stainless steel enterprises’ stock preparation before the festival and the stimulus of favorable macro policies. However, the nickel price at the raw material end fell slightly this week, and the stainless steel price subsequently fell back. It is expected that the short-term vibration of stainless steel is weak.

To sum up, the overall nickel price was weak and shocked by macro sentiment. The hawkish statement of the Federal Reserve aroused new concerns about economic growth. Concerns about economic recession increased and investors took profits. Inflation concerns put significant pressure on the commodity market. Oil prices fell back, and weak demand again highlighted. Nickel price is expected to fluctuate slightly.

In 2022, the zinc price will hit a new record and then fluctuate and consolidate

According to the data monitoring of the business community, on April 20, 2022, the zinc price hit a new cycle high of 28754 yuan/ton (note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 so far), but the high zinc price did not last long. After the zinc price briefly hit a new historical high, the zinc price fell rapidly, hit the bottom in July, and then the zinc price fluctuated and consolidated. In 2022, the high level support of zinc market will not last long, the supply and demand of zinc market will be weak, and the zinc price will fluctuate and consolidate. Looking back at the zinc market in 2022, the trend of zinc price mainly has three stages, which are obviously different, and the main reasons for the change of zinc price in each stage are also different.

The first stage: The crisis in Ukraine and Russia caused the zinc price to soar to a record high

The first stage is from January to April. The main factor affecting the zinc price in this stage is the crisis between Ukraine and Russia. During the Spring Festival goods preparation period, although the zinc price rose slightly, the rise continued to be insufficient. Since late February, the Ukrainian Russian crisis has intensified, leading to a decrease in Russian natural gas exports to Europe and intensifying European energy crisis concerns. European natural gas prices have skyrocketed, zinc smelting costs have increased, zinc supply is expected to decrease, and zinc prices have risen to a record high. Glencore’s published data shows that in the first quarter of 2022, Glencore’s zinc output will decline by 15% to 241500 tons, the output of zinc smelters will decline significantly, and the shortage of zinc supply will intensify.

Phase II: Outbreak of the epidemic followed by economic weakness, and the zinc price fell rapidly

The second stage is from late April to July, and the zinc price drops rapidly. From the highest level of 28,754 yuan/ton on April 20 to the lowest level of 22,376 yuan/ton in the year on July 17, a decline of 22.18%. The sudden outbreak of the epidemic in Shanghai, coupled with the intensification of economic weakness, depressed demand in the zinc market and a rapid fall in zinc prices.

According to the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (see the figure below), in April 2022, the production and sales of automobiles will reach 1.205 million and 1.181 million respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 46.2% and 47.1%, 46.1% and 47.6%; In April, the production and sales of automobiles decreased significantly, with the sales volume falling below 1.2 million, a monthly low in the same period in the past decade. The production and sales of the automobile industry fell sharply, the demand for galvanized sheet fell, and the demand for zinc fell seriously.

Influenced by the outbreak of the epidemic in Shanghai, the prevention and control of the epidemic was strengthened in April, and the number of enterprises cut production and stopped production increased; In addition, due to the difficulties in logistics and transportation, the sales of finished products are not smooth, the inventory is seriously overstocked, and the manufacturing industry is in recession. From the manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI) released by the National Bureau of Statistics, it can be seen that the PMI index has fallen back, the domestic economic prosperity level has declined, the manufacturing prosperity level has declined significantly in April, the demand for nonferrous metals is weak, and the demand for zinc is weak.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s zinc output in June was 549000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%. Zinc output from January to June totaled 3.263 million tons, down 1.7% year on year. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, China’s imports of refined zinc in June 2022 were about 2391 tons. In June 2022, the imports of refined zinc fell 26.36% month on month, down 93.62% year on year. From January to June, the cumulative import of refined zinc was 49002 tons, down 81.78% year on year. It can be seen from the domestic zinc output and refined zinc import data that the domestic zinc supply declined in the first half of the year. The decrease in supply supported the rise of the zinc market, and the zinc price stopped falling and rebounded.

The third stage: many empty spaces intertwined, zinc price fluctuated and consolidated

The third stage is from August to December, during which the zinc price fluctuated and consolidated. As of December 15, the zinc price was 24758 yuan/ton, 1.04% higher than the zinc price on August 1. The price of zinc is relatively stable due to the interweaving of many and empty spaces.

It can be seen from the trend chart of zinc concentrate processing fees that the domestic zinc concentrate processing fees continued to rise in the second half of the year, and the enthusiasm of zinc smelters increased. At the end of the year, many enterprises had plans to catch up with production. The output of zinc smelters was expected to increase, and the supply of zinc in the city was sufficient.

Under the dual impact of the supply crunch and energy crisis caused by the Ukrainian Russian crisis, many European zinc smelters were forced to reduce production and stop production. The Auby Smelter owned by Nyrstar started to operate with about 50% capacity in the second quarter, and the Buder zinc smelting business in the Netherlands was shut down for maintenance since September. In November, Glencore Nordenham Smelter was closed. By the end of 2022, the closed zinc production capacity in Europe will reach nearly 600000 tons/year. European zinc smelters cut production and stopped production, reducing the supply of zinc in the market.

Corresponding to the zinc smelting in Europe, the demand for zinc plating in Europe has declined sharply. In the first half of 2022, German electroplating enterprises are faced with paying 20 times the power cost. After the standard electricity price is adopted in September, the power cost may still reach about 500000 euros per month. However, German electroplating enterprises are unable to pass on this impact to the automobile customers (customers in the automobile industry), and the losses lead to the decline of the enterprise’s start-up. It is expected that the output of galvanized sheet will fall to the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2020; The die casting industry is also facing the pressure of weak construction industry, and the average operating rate of the industry is considered to be 20-30% lower than that in the first half of the year. Downstream construction fell, and the demand for zinc was weak.

In September, the central banks of the United States, Europe and Africa and other seven countries raised interest rates one after another. A series of radical policies intensified the market’s concern about the global economic outlook. The nonferrous metal sector fell in response, and the gold, silver and silver markets were not there. The nonferrous metal index fluctuated and consolidated from August to October, the zinc market was weak, and the zinc price was weak.

Future market forecast

According to the data analysts of the business community; In terms of demand, the Federal Reserve has slowed down the pace of interest rate increase, easing concerns about the economic recession in the international market, reducing the expectation of global economic weakness, and changing China’s prevention and control measures. The domestic economic recovery has accelerated or stimulated the global economy to recover, and zinc market demand is expected to recover. In terms of supply, the epidemic prevention and control measures have changed or improved the shortage of zinc ore labor force. The supply of zinc ore is expected to increase, and the processing cost of zinc concentrate continues to rise, stimulating zinc smelting enterprises to start work and increasing the supply of zinc in the city. To sum up, the supply and demand of the zinc market have both warmed up. In the short term, the low inventory of the zinc market combined with the Spring Festival stock, the zinc price has a strong upward momentum. It is expected that the zinc price will rise in a volatile manner in the short term; With the increase of zinc supply in the zinc market, the inventory of zinc ingots accumulates, and the downward pressure of zinc price increases. In the medium and long term, the zinc price is still at a historical high, “high places are too cold”. The long-term high support of zinc price is insufficient, and it is expected that the long-term zinc price will fluctuate and consolidate.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyacrylamide commodity index on December 14 was 94.53, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.23% from the highest point of the cycle, 111.51 (2021-11-03), and up 14.04% from the lowest point, 82.89, on August 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: According to the data monitoring of the business community, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s domestic market in the first half of December decreased slightly, with the main report of 15500 yuan/ton on the first day and 15471.43 yuan/ton on the 14th, down only 0.18%. After the public event policy was released, the manufacturers returned to work and production one after another. At present, most enterprises have started work normally and have sufficient inventory; On the other hand, after the policy was released, the number of infections increased in a short time, and the production progress was affected to some extent; The market of raw material acrylonitrile continued to decline, but acrylic acid weakened steadily, downstream demand was general, and the market of polyacrylamide mainly fluctuated steadily and slightly.

Raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of the business community, the acrylonitrile market has been weak since December due to the increasing pressure on the supply side and the small drop in the price of raw material propylene market, and the downstream stock is not active. On the first day, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 10500 yuan/ton, while on the 14th, the market reported 9860 yuan/ton, down 6.1%. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to fall slightly in the later period.

Raw acrylic acid: according to the data of the business community, the acrylic acid market in the first half of December was stable and fell, and the transaction atmosphere in the downstream procurement market was light and stable. On the first day, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 7366.67 yuan/ton, while on the 14th, it was 6766.67 yuan/ton, down 8.14%. At present, the cost support is weak. The supply side has some support for the acrylic market, but the demand side is cautious. The market transaction is just in demand. It is expected that the acrylic market will be stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

LNG for production. According to the data of the business community, the domestic LNG price in the first half of December rose by 65.31% in a volatile manner. On the first day of December, the market price of LNG was about 6900 yuan/ton, and on the 14th, the average market price was 8100 yuan/ton. In December, domestic LNG prices continued to rise, with a slight correction and a strong upward momentum. The main influencing factors are the soaring price of feed gas, the small amount of feed gas, the shrinking supply of domestic LNG market, and the curtailment and shutdown of some liquid plants. Under the circumstance that the temperature drop stimulates the increase of gas demand and the tightening of supply side, the domestic LNG market is soaring. As LNG has risen for several days, there is limited room for further growth. It is expected that the rise of LNG will weaken in the short term, so it is recommended to operate cautiously.

Future forecast: The demand is expected to increase due to the policy liberalization of recent public health events and the resumption of production of factories and downstream areas. However, so far, the manufacturer has sufficient inventory, the price of raw materials has weakened, the New Year’s Day and the New Year holiday next month are approaching, and the number of infected people in the short term has affected, so the subsequent demand is not very optimistic. From the current situation, the future market will remain stable and weak.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, as of December 13, 2022, the domestic market price of diethylene glycol was 5916.67 yuan/ton. Compared with January 1, 2022 (the reference price of diethylene glycol was 5016.67 yuan/ton), the price increased by 900 yuan/ton, or 19.60%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring of the business community that the diethylene glycol market in 2022 will mainly show a narrow range fluctuation trend from January to May, and then there will be two more obvious rises from the middle of May. From May 11 (the reference price of diethylene glycol is 4900 yuan/ton) to August 20 (the reference price of diethylene glycol is 4830 yuan/ton), the first round of market saw a relatively obvious rise and then slowly fell back, which took about three and a half months, with the peak appearing on July 10 (the reference price of diethylene glycol is 5516.67 yuan/ton). The second round of the market started to rise from the low point in late August (the reference price of diethylene glycol was 4830 yuan/ton) until the end of November and the beginning of December (the reference price of diethylene glycol was 6133.33 yuan/ton, the high price in 2022), and then began to dip back.

In the first stage, from January to May of 2022, the domestic diethylene glycol market maintained a range fluctuation trend. The international crude oil surged and fell, the port inventory continued to be high, and the downstream demand was weak. Under the influence of multiple factors, the market maintained a volatile trend. After returning from the Spring Festival holiday in February, the arrival of imported cargoes at the port was delayed irregularly, and the inventory at the terminal was gradually accumulated. Since the middle of March, the domestic epidemic was severe, and under the logistics control policy, the shipment at the terminal was not smooth, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The inventory of East China’s main ports fluctuated between 5500 tons and 7500 tons. On April 23, the inventory reached 78600 tons, a new high in the year. The downstream market recovered slowly and the demand performance was poor. At the end of the spring holiday in February, the starting time of some UPR plants was delayed, and the comprehensive starting level was low. Affected by COVID-19, workers’ return to work is delayed and logistics transportation is impeded, raw material procurement and shipment of the factory are blocked, downstream and terminal follow-up is poor, and demand performance is weak. At the same time, affected by COVID-19, the polyester industry started at a low level, and the use of diethylene glycol was less than expected.

In the second stage, from mid May to mid August, the domestic diethylene glycol market rose and then fell back. With the tight supply of global crude oil leading to an overall increase in international oil prices, the cost support is strong, the domestic unit load is reduced, the output is reduced, the port shipment is good, and the inventory is reduced. Although the downstream industry starts at a low level and the demand side performs generally, the diethylene glycol starts to warm up until the first ten days of July, and the domestic market price of diethylene glycol rose 616.67 yuan/ton, or 12.59%. The port shipment was good, the shipment volume was increased, the port inventory was slightly reduced, the inventory of the main port in East China was reduced from 72500 tons to 49500 tons, and the domestic Far East Lianhua, Yangzi Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical, Shanghai Petrochemical, Sinopec and other manufacturers and plants were shut down for maintenance in May June, with the output decreased, and the overall supply was tight. However, in the middle of July, the Federal Reserve sharply raised interest rates and superimposed the global economic recession, the crude oil price fell in shock, the cost support weakened, and the focus of the UPR market fell. With the continuous decline of other raw material prices, the UPR market continued to decline, leading to the continuous decline of the overall construction of the UPR industry and limited demand for raw materials. The cost support was insufficient and the demand was limited. The price of diethylene glycol declined slowly, falling by 686.67 yuan/ton or 12.45% as of August 20. All the previous gains were reversed.

In the third stage, from late August to the end of November and early December, the domestic diethylene glycol market soared and rose against the trend. OPEC+decided to significantly reduce production and add market supply concerns to support oil prices again. International crude oil prices rose as a whole, with strong cost support, good port shipments, and low inventory shocks. Affected by ethylene glycol, the operating load of enterprises was not high, domestic production supply was reduced, downstream operations resumed, and demand was good. Under the influence of multiple factors, diethylene glycol began to operate more strongly. With the gradual cooling of the weather and the gradual lifting of power restrictions, the off-season of UPR market gradually ended, and the commencement of work continued to resume. UPR prices continued to rise. UPR shipments were better under the market mentality of buying up rather than buying down, and the shipment of diethylene glycol was warmer. During the Mid Autumn Festival and the National Day holiday in China, downstream manufacturers had a considerable amount of goods in stock before the two festivals. The port realized rapid destocking and the return of the National Day. The domestic diethylene glycol market has always maintained a tight state of rising prices. The port realized staged destocking. As of October 31, 2022, the port inventory in East China was about 18900 tons, down 42600 tons, or 68.76%, from 60500 tons on August 22. The number of ships entering the port in East China was also small, The port inventory has been kept at a low level. As of November 28, 2022, the port inventory in East China is about 20000 tons. The port inventory is low and the supply is tight.

In the fourth stage, in December, the domestic diethylene glycol market continued to dip. The cost side support was weak, the demand performance was poor, the supply side support was average, and the diethylene glycol market was weak. The sharp increase in the inventory of U.S. refined oil products was compounded by concerns that the Federal Reserve would continue its aggressive interest rate increase policy, the price of crude oil futures fell sharply, and the cost side support weakened. The first unit in Maoming was restarted, the domestic production and supply increased slightly, the market transaction was average, the wait-and-see mood of the operators became stronger, the shipment in the reservoir area fell back, the port unloading inventory increased significantly, the port inventory in South China was on the high side, and the supply side performance was poor. The UPR industry started on the low side, the market inventory was slowly digested, and most of the goods were shipped along with the line, and the demand side of diethylene glycol performed poorly.

At present, the port has accumulated stocks. The market is worried about the increase of supply, and the demand expectation is gradually weakening. The overall market sentiment is not high, and the industry is cautious. The market has no good news guidance for the time being. The Diethylene Glycol Datagrapher of the business community believes that in the short term, the Diethylene Glycol market is weak, and the price continues to decline. More attention should be paid to the terminal shipments and subsequent arrivals.

The price of plasticizer DBP fell first and then rose this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of December 12, the DBP price was 9800 yuan/ton, up 1.38% from 9666.67 yuan/ton on December 4. The price of raw materials stopped falling and the demand recovered. The DBP price fell first and then rose this week.

DBP raw material prices fell first and then rose

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of December 12, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8050 yuan/ton, down 5.85% from the price of 8550 yuan/ton on December 4. The price of ortho benzene fell, the cost of phthalic anhydride fell, the price of phthalic anhydride fell, and the pressure on DBP to fall increased.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of December 12, the price of n-butanol was 7833.33 yuan/ton, up 4.44% from 7500 yuan/ton on December 4. The trading atmosphere of n-butanol in the market has warmed up, the industry’s strong will has been strengthened, the price of n-butanol fell first and then rose, and the cost of DBP rose.

Future market expectation

In terms of cost, analysts from DBP data of Business Club believed that the price of raw material phthalic anhydride fell in shock, the price of n-butanol stopped falling and rose, and the cost of DBP raw materials rose; In terms of demand, the demand of DBP is getting warmer. In the future, the DBP cost will stop falling and the demand will recover. It is expected that the DBP price will first fall and then rise in the future.