According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 16, 2022, the reference price of domestic butanone market was 8933 yuan/ton. Compared with the price on November 7 (the reference price of butanone was 8700 yuan/ton), the average price increased by 233 yuan/ton, or 2.68%. On November 16, the domestic market price of butanone was around 8800-9300 yuan/ton.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that in the near future (11.07-11.16), the domestic butanone market is in an overall upward trend. The driving force supporting the domestic butanone market upward mainly comes from the following two aspects:

On the one hand, in terms of cost, the overall rising carbon price after the recent raw material ether has given more support to the cost of butanone, and the butanone factory has actively raised the price, driving the steady rise of the butanone market.

II. In terms of supply, in the early stage, the domestic butanone export performance was good on the whole. In November, the butanone unit load was not high, and there was no news of restart of parking devices in the site, and the overall operating rate remained at a moderate level. Butanone supply side inventory is tight, the supply pressure of the industry is small, and the offer is mostly firm.

Future market analysis of butanone

At present, the downstream demand for butanone is mainly based on the purchase of just needed products. The wait-and-see atmosphere in the market is strong, the trading atmosphere is general, and the support from the demand side is generally exposed. The butanone data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the butanone market is dominated by multi range adjustment and operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific information changes on the supply and demand side.

Recently, the zinc price has risen again

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the zinc price was 24728 yuan/ton as of November 15, up 6.87% from 23138 yuan/ton on November 1. After the zinc price rose for five consecutive days in November, the zinc price fell slightly on the eighth day, but only fell for two days, and the zinc price rose again for three consecutive days.

Bullish factor

Glencore maintained its Nordenham zinc smelter in Germany in November, and the scale of reduction and shutdown of European refineries will be expanded to 740000 tons. The reduction and shutdown of European refineries are further expanded, and the supply of zinc in Europe is expected to decrease.

Due to environmental pollution in the waters of Sichuan, the Provincial Environmental Protection Department ordered some zinc smelters to stop production, resulting in limited output of relevant refineries. It is reported that the annual capacity of enterprises affected this time is 310,000 tons, and the supply of zinc in domestic cities is reduced.

Bad factors

LME currently does not prohibit the delivery of Russian metals, nor does it set a threshold for the Russian inventory. The supply of zinc ingots in the international market is stable, avoiding a serious shortage of zinc supply in the market.

The processing cost of domestic zinc concentrate continues to rise, the production enthusiasm of zinc smelters rises, and the domestic zinc ingot output is expected to increase.

The Indian Mining Federation sent a letter to the Ministry of Finance seeking to increase the import tax on zinc and other metals to stop the tide of imports, especially from China. India’s supply of zinc import tax affects China’s export of zinc ingots, and the demand for zinc ingots is expected to decline.

Future market forecast

According to the data analysts of the business community; Affected by the shutdown of maintenance in Europe and the shutdown of environmental protection in Sichuan, the supply of zinc in the city is reduced; However, LME does not restrict Russian metals, and the continuous rise of domestic zinc concentrate processing fees has stimulated the production enthusiasm of domestic zinc smelting enterprises, ensuring the supply of zinc in the city; However, India has increased the import tax on zinc metal in advance, affecting the export of zinc ingots, and the demand for zinc is expected to decline. In general, the supply and demand of zinc market are weak, the short-term supply of zinc market is insufficient, stimulating the shock rise of zinc price, the long-term supply of zinc market is basically stable, the demand is expected to decline, and the downward pressure of zinc market is increased. Long term zinc price is expected to be adjusted in a wide range.

DOTP prices fell first and then rose this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 14, the average price of DOTP was 10862.50 yuan/ton, down 3.78% from the average price of 10250 yuan/ton on November 4. Raw material prices fell first and then rose, while DOTP fell first and then rose. The overall DOTP market was volatile and stable.

Adjustment of raw material price fluctuation

According to the data of the business association; The price of isooctanol fell first and then rose this week. As of November 14, the price of isooctanol was 9166.67 yuan/ton, down 3.85% from 9533.33 yuan/ton on November 4. Transportation basically recovered this week, and the manufacturer’s shipment recovered. The price of isooctanol fell first and then rose. The demand was temporarily stable, and the support for the price rise of isooctanol in the future remained.

According to the data of the business community, as of November 14, the PTA price was 5809.58 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.38% compared with the price of 5787.50 yuan/ton on November 4. Recently, the price of crude oil fell first and then rose, PTA cost was adjusted by shocks, PTA supply and demand were relatively balanced, PTA price was stabilized by shocks, and DOTP’s upward momentum remained.

Future market expectation

Analysts of DOTP data from the business association believed that the raw material isooctanol fell in shock this week, PTA prices rose slightly in shock, and the overall cost of plasticizer DOTP raw materials stabilized in shock. In the future, the DOTP cost support is weakened, and the demand is temporarily stable. It is expected that the DOTP will become stable in the future.

According to the bulk data list of the business cooperative, the market price of thermal phosphoric acid fell continuously this week. As of November 11, the average market price of 85% industrial grade phosphoric acid in China was 8280 yuan/ton, down 8.61% from the average price of 9060 yuan/ton on November 7.

Mainstream market:

As of November 11, the ex factory quotation of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan was about 8400 yuan/ton, that of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan was about 8500 yuan/ton, and that of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei was about 8400 yuan/ton. The market quotation of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in Nanjing is about 9300 yuan/ton.

Cost side:

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus, the yellow phosphorus market declined this week. As of November 11, the average factory price of yellow phosphorus and net phosphorus had dropped to 27500 yuan/ton. At present, the yellow phosphorus market trading is relatively light, the market demand is poor, the transaction is limited, and the yellow phosphorus manufacturers’ inventory has increased. Downstream enterprises purchase at lower prices, and yellow phosphorus enterprises basically stop making external quotations, but the products are sold normally. At present, in addition to the main supply of early orders, the yellow phosphorus is mainly shipped, and the downstream enterprises put forward the inquiry price. The yellow phosphorus enterprises negotiate according to the price situation, and single price negotiation.

In terms of raw phosphorous ore, the domestic phosphorous ore market was stable this week. At present, the supply side of domestic phosphate rock is still tight, some minerals are shut down for maintenance, and the spot stock of medium and high-end grade phosphate rock is low. As of November 11, the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China is around 1030-1080 yuan/ton, and the details need to be negotiated.

Demand side:

The downstream demand of phosphoric acid was weak this week, the market continued to be sluggish, and the deal on the market was limited. As the price of phosphoric acid continues to decline in the near future, the sentiment of buying up rather than buying down in the downstream has increased. It is mainly just a need to purchase, and it is mainly wait-and-see.

Future market forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts from the business community believed that due to the continuous decline of the raw material yellow phosphorus market, the cost side was negative, and the phosphoric acid market fell sharply, the industry was more cautious. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will operate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the change of raw material market trend.

Price trend

The domestic PA6 market fell in early November. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic PA6 was 14233.33 yuan/ton on October 30 and 14100 yuan/ton on November 9, with a range of – 0.94% increase and – 15.74% decrease compared with the same period last year.

Cause analysis

The market environment of PA6 continued to be affected by the trend of global high inflation economy, but the news of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase slowing down in the early stage came true, and the negative side of the market was less than expected. At the same time, the recent international crude oil production reduction plan was announced, and the decline of oil prices narrowed immediately. The negative impact of the current macro market and remote costs on the PA6 market has slightly slowed down.

In terms of raw materials, the recent decline in the domestic caprolactam market can be seen from the figure below. The utilization rate of domestic caprolactam plants has been greatly stabilized and slightly reduced, and the overall load is close to 70%. The offer of petrochemical plants and merchants has been lowered. The average spot price in the East China market is about 12100 yuan/ton. Downstream polymerization plants are cautious in taking goods to maintain production. The raw material pure benzene fell broadly. The inventory of ports in East China was higher than 70000 tons, and the flow of goods on the site was poor. Caprolactam lacks positive market in the short term.

In terms of supply: the operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization enterprises is stable, and the overall load level is about 69%. Last week, PA6 output was 87000 tons, which was flat, and the market supply situation remained abundant. In addition, there is still pressure on the supplier from the news of the production of the newly added PA6 device in the early stage.

Demand: In the downstream industry, the operating rate of nylon filament remained at 75%, while the load position of other fields dropped steadily, generally between 50% and 60%. At the end of the current traditional peak season, the competition in the market is strengthened. The demand volume at the early stage of superposition was less than expected, and the high-end offer on the market was generally not smooth. The buyer just needs to stock up and buy cautiously, and the wait-and-see mentality is biased. The traders have no strong confidence in the future market, and the number of traders who take orders secretly increases.

Future market forecast

The market of PA6 weakened in early November. The load of domestic polymerization plants is flat and the supply is sufficient. On the demand side, it is slightly insufficient, and the rigid demand support is weakened. The contradiction between supply and demand has a certain drag on the market. However, on the whole, the current bad news of PA6 market mainly comes from the high decline of caprolactam at the raw material end. Moreover, the upstream industrial chain market is negative, and improvement is yet to be made. Therefore, the domestic PA6 market is expected to maintain a weak operation in the short term.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price trend of cryolite in Henan was stable this week. On November 6, the average market price in Henan was 7875 yuan/ton, which was the same as that on October 31 at the beginning of the week, with a month on month increase of 1.26%.

quotations analysis

This week, the cryolite market is on the sidelines. The cryolite quotation is running smoothly. The raw material end manufacturers are still at a low level, and the market supply is tight. The cryolite enterprises are under pressure when they start to work. Most cryolite devices on the site are operating at a low load. In addition, the prices of coal and natural gas are high, and the cost of cryolite is under great pressure. The cryolite price on the market is high, and the downstream demand for procurement is weak. The enterprises are shipping on demand, and the industry’s wait-and-see mentality continues. Within the week, the cryolite manufacturers offered stable prices according to their own shipments. As of November 6, the factory price of cryolite in Shandong was 8300 yuan/ton, and that in Henan was 7500-9000 yuan/ton.

The upstream fluorite continued to rise. As of November 6, the market average price was about 3187 yuan/ton, up 0.98% compared with the price of 3156 yuan/ton on October 31. The domestic supply side operating rate remained low. The mining enterprises were subject to safety and environmental protection requirements, and the fluorite mine was under operating, the fluorite flotation was limited, the spot supply was insufficient, the inventory was tight, and the fluorite price continued to operate at a high level.

The price of aluminum in the downstream market fell first and then rose in the week. On November 6, the price of aluminum was about 18,270.00 yuan/ton, 0.24% lower than the price of 18,313.33 yuan/ton on October 31. The inventory pressure of aluminum society still exists, which suppresses the aluminum price market. The downstream demand is weak, and the market trading atmosphere is general. At present, the supply and demand are deadlocked. In the short term, the aluminum market continues to fluctuate.

Future market forecast

The raw material end starts at a low level, the supply of goods is tight, and the cryolite enterprises are limited to start. In addition, the prices of coal and natural gas on the site are high, the production costs of cryolite are increased, and the enterprise’s quotation is high and firm. The downstream parties continue to wait and see, purchase and follow up as needed, and the cryolite enterprises ship as needed. At present, the supply and demand of the site are deadlocked. It is expected that the short-term cryolite market will continue to run at a high level.

The market in East China rebounded at a low level, and the transaction was fair. Futures stopped falling and rebounded, production facilities of major enterprises in some regions stopped, supply decreased, and market buying improved. The logistics in some regions is limited but the demand is weak, and the downstream receiving price is weak.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of East China ports in the domestic methanol market rose from 2790 yuan/ton to 2828 yuan/ton from October 31 to November 7. During the cycle, the price rose 1.36%, fell 6.12% month on month and 8.97% year on year.

As of the closing on November 7, methanol in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose in shock. The main methanol futures contract 2301 opened at 2626 yuan/ton, the highest price was 2635 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 2573 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2585 yuan/ton, up 1 or 0.04% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1464941 hands, the position volume was 1035879 hands, and the daily position increase was – 125757 hands.

Summary of methanol market prices by regions as of 11.7:

Region, price

Qinghai region, no quotation

Shanxi, 2590-2620 yuan/ton

Liaoning, about 2680 yuan/ton

Fujian, 2870-2930 yuan/ton

In the two lakes region, about 2985-3000 yuan/ton

Anhui Province, about 2900-2950 yuan/ton

Henan, 2700-2710 yuan/ton

The price of products in the methanol industry chain rose and fell, the price of natural gas in the upstream product of methanol rose, the price of coal was stable, and the cost of methanol was well supported; In the downstream products, Shandong’s formaldehyde price dropped the most; The price of urea in Shandong Province rose the most among related products.

In terms of external market, as of the closing of November 4, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was USD 367.50-368.50/ton. US Gulf Methanol Market closed at 98.75-99.75 cents/gallon; FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 340.00-341.00 euros/ton.

Region, country, closing price, up and down

Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, 367.50-368.50 USD/ton, 0 USD/ton

Europe, America, Gulf of America, 98.75-99.75 cents/gallon, 0 cents/gallon

Europe, FOB Rotterdam, 340.00-341.00 euros/ton, 0 euros/ton

The prices of gas and coal are still strong, the supply is abundant, and the demand changes little. The transportation in some areas is not smooth. Methanol analysts of the business community predict that the domestic methanol market may be dominated by weak ones

This week (10.31-11.4), the market of dichloromethane was weak and declined. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 4, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2700 yuan/ton, down 8.47% from 2950 yuan/ton last Friday. As of the 5th day, the market price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was between 2550 and 2800 yuan/ton.

This week (10.31-11.), there was little change in the commencement of methane chloride, and the pressure on the dichloromethane supply side was still at.

This week (10.31-11.4), the spot market of methanol rose slightly, and the cost of dichloromethane rose slightly. According to the business community, as of November 4, the spot price of methanol was 2864 yuan/ton, up 2.65% from 2790 yuan/ton last Friday. The domestic methanol market in East China is surging, the crude oil is running in shock, and the coal price is strong to support the production cost. The port market continues to de stock mainly.

After the National Day holiday, the downstream demand was flat, and the refrigerant started to operate at a low level; The thin material and pharmaceutical industries started relatively stably, and the transactions in the dichloromethane market were generally flat.

Future forecast: The analysts of methane chloride data from the business community believe that the domestic supply of methane chloride is mainly loose, the cost is slightly weak, and the rising raw material price and cost are slightly supported. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

According to the bulk data list of the business cooperative, the market price of thermal phosphoric acid fell continuously this week. As of November 3, the average market price of 85% industrial grade phosphoric acid in China was 9240 yuan/ton, which was 6.10% lower than the average price of 9840 yuan/ton on October 28.

According to the bulk data list of business cooperatives, the market price of wet process phosphoric acid decreased slightly this week. As of November 3, the average market price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 9316 yuan/ton, which was 0.36% lower than the average price of 9350 yuan/ton on October 28.

Mainstream market:

As of November 3, the ex factory quotation of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan was about 9100 yuan/ton, that of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan was about 9500 yuan/ton, and that of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei was about 9000 yuan/ton. The market quotation of 85 content WPA in Hubei is 8850-9600 yuan/ton, and that in Nanjing is 9700 yuan/ton.

Cost side:

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus, the yellow phosphorus market continued to weaken this week, mainly due to the downward trend. Downstream delivery slowed down, inquiries increased, and the actual transaction was cautious. The quotation of most manufacturers has been suspended, and the actual transaction price in the market has declined. The actual transaction is mainly discussed on a single basis, mainly for old customers. In terms of raw phosphorous ore, the phosphorous ore market was stable and slightly dynamic this week, and the supply and demand of the site was relatively calm, with consolidation as the main operation.

Demand side:

The downstream demand of phosphoric acid is weak this week, the market trading atmosphere is general, the wait-and-see mentality in the phosphoric acid plant is increasing, and the downstream just needs to purchase mainly. The price of phosphoric acid market continued to fall when the downstream market bought up but not down.

Future market forecast

The phosphoric acid analysts of the business association believed that the market of thermal phosphoric acid fell sharply due to the decline of the raw material yellow phosphorus market and insufficient cost support. Downstream procurement is cautious and terminal demand is weak. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will continue to decline in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the changes in the raw material market and demand side.

In September, the domestic BDO market changed from a sluggish market, and the price rose significantly. The price rose 42.72% in the month, and fell 51.62% year on year. The main reason is that the supply of equipment maintenance of the manufacturer is reduced, and a small number of high prices are auctioned to support the market, as well as the demand driven by the downstream manufacturers’ pre holiday stock. In October, the domestic BDO market was mainly reorganized. After the National Day holiday, the rising trend in September continued. The auction prices of some manufacturers remained high. However, the sluggish demand restricts the growth of BDO market. Although the manufacturer has bid for 14700 yuan/ton for many times, it is hard to change the downtrend of downstream, and BDO market is frozen.

According to the sample data monitored by the business cooperative, the average price of domestic BDO producers in early October was 14600 yuan/ton. As of October 28, the average price of domestic BDO producers was still 14600 yuan/ton. The maximum amplitude of price in the month was 0.68%, and the price fell 52.09% year on year. The latest market price: 13800-14200 yuan/ton for spot apron mainstream negotiation in South China; Barrel negotiation 14500-15500 yuan/ton (delivered by acceptance); East China spot apron mainstream negotiation 13800-14200 yuan/ton; Barrel packing negotiation 14500-15000 yuan/ton (delivered by acceptance).

At the beginning of the month, the domestic BDO market was mainly on the sidelines. Although the manufacturers had a strong intention to set prices, and the published auction prices were mostly high and stable, the market price followed a slight upward trend, which was not about 200 yuan/ton, but the downstream receiving intention was not strong, and the buying and selling atmosphere was light.

In the middle of this month, the domestic BDO market was smoothly sorted out, and traders’ wait-and-see mood increased as the month end settlement cycle approached. At present, the operation of major domestic production enterprises is relatively stable, and the transportation situation in some regions is slightly eased compared with the early stage, and the overall supply of the market is increasing. However, the overall performance of downstream demand is average. The supply and demand game makes the BDO market a dilemma.

In the last ten days of this month, the contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic BDO market was prominent. With the increase of negative operation of Meck’s equipment, the overall market operating rate increased; At the same time, the transportation in Xinjiang has gradually eased and the supply is abundant. However, terminal demand was weak, traders’ bearish sentiment increased, and the trading focus moved down in a narrow range.

In terms of equipment, in October, the load of BDO’s main factories decreased a lot.

In terms of upstream, in terms of methanol, the business community monitored that the price of domestic methanol in East China ports continued to rise and then fell, with a shock downward. At the beginning of the month, the price was 3012 yuan/ton, and as of October 28, 2790 yuan/ton, a decline of 7.39% in the cycle. At present, the domestic methanol market is weak. Raw calcium carbide: The business community monitored that the production price of calcium carbide in the northwest kept at 3700 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and rose to 3961 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a 7.06% increase in the cycle. At present, the calcium carbide market is mainly arranged and wait-and-see.

In terms of downstream products, PTMEG industry has downward expectations; The demand of PBT industry has decreased; The downstream TPU and PU slurry load in the polyurethane field remained stable, and just needed orders to follow up.

At present, the contradiction between supply and demand is gradually emerging and strengthening, BDO market supply is still relatively abundant, while some downstream PTMEG and PBT plants are under maintenance or expected to reduce the market demand. Business agency BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market may decline.