1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business community, the price of PVC calcium carbide SG5 rose first and then fell this week. On Friday, the average price of domestic PVC was 6265.71 yuan/ton, and on Friday, the average price was 6281.43 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.25% within the week.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic spot market price of PVC rose first and then fell this week. At present, the spot market is weak, the market price has changed from rising to falling, the actual transaction is limited, the market trading atmosphere is light, and the confidence is insufficient. Futures prices fell for five consecutive days this weekend, dampening market confidence. Up to now, the quotation range of domestic PVC5 carbide materials is around 5900-6470 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures rebounded on October 13. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was 89.11 dollars/barrel, up 1.84 dollars or 2.11%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 94.57 dollars/barrel, up 2.12 dollars or 2.29%. On Thursday, the US CPI data was released. Although it was higher than expected, the stock market rebounded strongly after falling, boosting risky assets such as crude oil. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory data shows that diesel and heating oil inventories have declined significantly, overshadowing the negative impact of the increase in crude oil and gasoline inventories.

In terms of calcium carbide, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China rose this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China rose from 3700 yuan/ton at the weekend to 3950 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 6.67%. The upstream carbon price was consolidated at a high level, with good cost support. The downstream PVC market was average, and the demand for calcium carbide was fair.

3、 Future market forecast

PVC analysts from the business agency believed that the spot price of PVC rose first and then fell this week. The market demand was general. The trading of new orders in the market was limited at the weekend, and the trading atmosphere was weakened. The five consecutive declines in futures depressed the confidence of the spot market. Crude oil futures rebounded, and the price of raw material calcium carbide was raised, which supported moderately. It is expected that in the short term, the PVC market price will fluctuate and consolidate. Pay close attention to the changes in the message.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of October 13, the average price quoted by the domestic premium DMF enterprises was 7875.00 yuan/ton, down 1000 yuan/ton compared with the same period last week, with an overall decline of 11.02%. The overall DMF market price is mainly narrow and weak, and the price has decreased. It is expected that the DMF market will be stable and weak in the short term.

As of October 13, the domestic DMF price has been running smoothly. At present, the mainstream price range is 8500 yuan/ton. The atmosphere of transaction is fair, and the atmosphere of negotiation is general. The manufacturer gives up the profit and takes away the order. The shipment is smooth. Downstream just needs to purchase.

The DMF analysts of the Business Agency believe that the DMF market is mainly strong in the short term, with a price range of about 7800 yuan/ton and a limited range of price fluctuations. (If you want to know more about the latest market trends of the industrial chain, please pay attention to the official account of the business community, obtain commodity information, and master commodity prices.).

Price Trend of Acetone in East China Market

Recently, with the supply supplement of domestic trade goods, the circulation of East China market has increased significantly. After some goods just need to be replenished, the wait-and-see mood has increased. Under the pressure of shipment, the offer of the goods holders has declined, and the actual orders have obviously yielded profits. On the afternoon of the 11th, the offer of East China market was 5900-5950 yuan/ton, and the trading atmosphere in the market has weakened. It is estimated that East China will continue to decline and negotiate at 5850-5950 yuan/ton today. At present, the decline of other mainstream markets is not obvious, Today, we will continue to pay attention to the actual transactions on the floor.

The offer of acetone in major mainstream markets in China is as follows:

Region, quotation, rise and fall

East China, 5900-5950, – 200

Shandong Province., 6400., 0

Yanshan Prefecture., 6400., 0

South China, 6100., – 100

Overview of ethylene glycol price trend

According to the data of the business community, the average price of oil to ethylene glycol P value was 4383.33 yuan/ton on October 11, down 1.87% from the previous trading day and 28.61% year on year.

On the 11th, the price of ethylene glycol in East China, the mainstream consumer, dropped significantly, and some traders quoted 4150-4300 yuan/ton. According to market news, Zhangjiagang raised the contract price at 4125 yuan/ton this week and 4150 yuan/ton in October. At present, the external quotation of large factories is relatively firm, and some of them are slightly reduced.

During the National Day, the CIF spot price in Southeast Asia fell significantly; Today, the domestic ethylene glycol price fell more, and the futures market encountered panic selling, which led to the linkage of spot prices. The main factors affecting the decline are: first, the expectation of the resumption of the ethylene glycol unit; Second, downstream demand contracted.

From the inventory data, the inventory of the main port began to accumulate slightly, and the current inventory exceeded 850000 tons. After the festival, the downstream polyester demand was weak, and the delivery of Zhangjiagang and Taicang warehouses became weak.

Overview of ethylene glycol industry chain

The domestic polyester operating rate is about 80%, but the downstream demand is weak. According to the production and marketing rate data, the production and marketing rate of polyester filament dropped to about 3-4%, the production and marketing rate of polyester chip dropped to about 30%, and the production and marketing rate of direct spinning polyester staple fiber factory dropped to about 20%. On the whole, polyester downstream customers are more resistant to the high price supply of the factory.

Future market forecast

In the short term, the weak demand for strong supply is expected to be strong, and the weak consolidation is expected in the future. In the future, we will wait and see the maintenance continuity of Coal Chemical and the follow-up of terminal orders.

After the festival, the price of acetic anhydride rose by 400 yuan/ton

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the price of acetic anhydride rose sharply in October. As of October 10, the price of acetic anhydride was 6066.67 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton or 7.06% from 5666.67 yuan/ton on October 1; After the festival, the price of acetic acid, the raw material, rose sharply, and the price of methanol rose sharply. The growth of methanol and acetic acid in the acetic anhydride industry chain was significantly higher than that of acetic anhydride. The market of acetic anhydride rose sharply, but it was still the younger brother of the acetic anhydride industry chain.

The price of acetic acid soared after the festival

It can be seen from the trend chart of acetic acid price of the business community that after the festival, the price of acetic acid continued to rise sharply in late September. As of October 10, the price of acetic acid was 3735 yuan/ton, up 12.75% from 3312.50 yuan/ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month; It was up 20% from 3112.50 yuan/ton on September 25. Since late September, the price of acetic acid has risen 600 yuan/ton, and some manufacturers have risen 800 yuan/ton. The sharp rise in the price of acetic acid is good for acetic anhydride.

Methanol price rises after the festival

It can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of the business community that the price of methanol has been rising continuously since September, and methanol has witnessed a new wave of rise since September 25. As of October 10, the price of methanol was 3060 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton or 12.92% from 2710 yuan/ton on September 25 at the beginning of the month; Compared with the methanol price of 2528 yuan/ton on September 1, the price of methanol increased by 500 yuan/ton, or 21.04%. The price of methanol continued to rise, the cost of downstream acetic anhydride raw materials rose, and acetic anhydride gained momentum.

Future outlook

According to the acetic anhydride data analysts of the business community, although the sales of acetic anhydride remained indifferent, the upstream methanol and acetic acid prices soared, the cost of acetic anhydride raw materials continued to rise, and the price of acetic anhydride was close to the cost line. The lower profits of manufacturers were bound to transmit to the downstream, and the upward momentum of acetic anhydride prices increased. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will rise sharply in the future.

According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the domestic aggregate MDI market price was 14700 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 16460 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with an increase of 11.97% in the month and a year-on-year decrease of 30.94%.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of September 30:

Region, Wanhua Goods, Shanghai Goods

North China and Shandong, 16500-17000 yuan/ton, 16200-16300 yuan/ton

In South China, 16500-17000 yuan/ton, 16300-16500 yuan/ton

East China, 16500-17000 yuan/ton, 16300-16500 yuan/ton

At the beginning of the month, the domestic aggregate MDI market slowly recovered. Since the beginning of the week, the market transaction atmosphere has improved, traders’ quotations have been raised one after another, and the phenomenon of market suspension has also occurred from time to time. On the one hand, the supply is low and the market supply is reduced; On the other hand, the price of raw material pure benzene rose, and the price of polymerization MDI fell near the cost line; At the same time, the downstream actively replenished goods, which also made the domestic MDI market stop falling and recover.

In the first ten days of this month, the domestic aggregate MDI market fluctuated significantly, the difference between high and low prices among traders widened, and the gap between high and low prices was obvious. The traders had different attitudes. The supply and demand game was prominent, and high quotations were waiting for demand. The low price quotation traders kept the pace of shipment.

In the last ten days of this month, the domestic aggregate MDI market did not change much, with a narrow range rising, and traders offered few quotations, mainly to watch the market dynamics. The quotations of major manufacturers have been raised, the supply has been reduced, and the market has risen significantly at the beginning of the week. However, the downstream demand is slightly flat and the purchase volume is average. Some traders even have a holiday in advance, which shows that the intention of downstream goods preparation is not strong before the festival.

Raw material pure benzene: According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic pure benzene market has risen significantly. The price at the beginning of the month was 7617 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 7899 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.24%.

In the aspect of aniline, according to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, aniline continued its rising trend in late August this month, with prices rising continuously. On September 1, the price in Shandong was 10100-10300 yuan/ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 10100-11000 yuan/ton; On September 28, the price in Shandong was 12000-12300 yuan/ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12800-13000 yuan/ton. The average price of aniline in this month is 18.84% higher than that at the beginning of the month and 10.15% higher than that in the same period last year.

In terms of enterprises, Yantai Wanhua’s 1.1 million t/a unit is operated with reduced load; Ningbo Wanhua 1.2 million tons/year unit load reduction operation; The 600000 t/a unit of Shanghai Covestro operates normally; Load reduction operation of 380000 t/a unit of Shanghai Huntsman; The 220000 t/a unit of Shanghai BASF operates normally; Chongqing BASF 400000 t/a unit load reduction operation; The 80000 t/a unit of Dongcao Ruian operates normally.

Raw material pure benzene fluctuated at a high level, with stable cost support, and the intention of downstream goods preparation increased before the festival. The cyclohexanone analyst of the business community predicted that the short-term cyclohexanone market would be dominated by a strong consolidation.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of October 8, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 7366 yuan/ton. Compared with September 30 (the average reference price of n-butanol was 6666 yuan/ton), the average price increased by 700 yuan/ton, or 10.5%. Compared with September 1 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 6866 yuan/ton), the average price increased by 500 yuan/ton, or 7.28%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that the n-butanol market in Shandong Province has seen a broad rise after the National Day holiday, with an increase of more than 10%. The main supporting factors for the upward focus of the n-butanol market come from the following three aspects:

First, on the supply side, on the eve of the festival, the downstream of n-butanol was actively stocking up, and the manufacturers had a good performance in going to the warehouse. Therefore, after the festival, the overall inventory of n-butanol market was low, and the supply pressure was small, supporting the market price to rise.

Second, in terms of cost, the steady rise of propylene market as raw material supports the cost of n-butanol, and the overall mentality of n-butanol industry is good.

Third, on the demand side, it is reported that after the National Day holiday, the storage, parking and maintenance plan of a n-butanol unit in Shandong Province may drive the downstream to continue to replenish goods after the holiday, so the overall demand side also brings some good expectations.

On October 8, the domestic market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was around 7300-7400 yuan/ton, and the price increase was around 500-700 yuan/ton compared with that before the festival. At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol is good.

In terms of upstream propylene, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market changed from a weak one in September, with prices rising all the way. In October, the propylene market continued to run at a high level during the holiday period. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of propylene was 7620.60 yuan per ton on October 7, an increase of 7.32% compared with the beginning of September.

Post market analysis of n-butanol

Based on the current situation, the n-butanol industry has a positive attitude towards the future market, and the current support of the n-butanol market is relatively stable. The n-butanol data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong will mainly operate in a stable, medium to strong way, and more attention should be paid to the specific information changes on the supply and demand side.

In September 2022, the textile raw material market showed a trend of first rising and then falling. According to the textile index of the business community, the textile index was 987 points as of September 30, down 7 points from 994 at the beginning of the month, 14.62% from the highest point in the cycle of 1156 (2018-09-03), and 44.93% from the lowest point of 681 on August 13, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

In terms of price, according to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 11 kinds of commodities in the textile sector in the list of commodity price rises and falls in September 2022, including 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 10.5% of the number of monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities were acrylonitrile (10.90%), spandex (7.03%) and nylon POY (3.59%). There were 7 kinds of commodities that declined month on month, and 1 kind of commodities that declined by more than 5%, accounting for 5.3% of the number of monitored commodities in this sector; The top three products of decline were viscose staple fiber (-6.86%), lint (-3.16%) and rayon yarn (-2.50%).

Good cost supports the chemical fiber market to rise more than fall less

It can be seen from the above table that, in addition to the weakness of the viscose industry chain, other chemical fiber products have risen to varying degrees, with the most obvious increase in acrylonitrile. As of September 30, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 9870 yuan/ton, up 10.90% from 8900 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In September, such acrylonitrile units as Silbang, Jilin Petrochemical, Shanghai SECCO and Zhejiang Petrochemical continued to operate under reduced load. The raw propylene market rose significantly, with stronger cost support. As of September 29, the domestic propylene price was 7620 yuan/ton, up 7.32% from 7100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In addition, with the increase of demand, the downstream ABS continued to operate at a high level of 8-9%, and the acrylic fiber and nitrile rubber industries started to operate stably. The reduction of production by itself and the advantages of upstream and downstream are superimposed, but there is still pressure for new production of acrylonitrile in the later period. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will consolidate at a high level in the later period.

The spandex market showed an upward trend in September, reversing the downward trend for five consecutive months. As of September 30, the average market price of specification 40D was 35000 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 7.03%. The unit load of the polyurethane fiber factory increased, and the industrial commencement increased to 6.10%, with sufficient supply of goods in the market. However, the price of raw materials has increased significantly. In addition, the terminal of “Jinjiu” has warmed up. Downstream customers are active in picking up goods. The pressure on the inventory of spandex has gradually eased, and the inventory of individual specifications and models is tight. The manufacturer’s offer rose, the current market as a whole showed signs of improvement, and the cost benefit remained unchanged. In the short term, the price of spandex will still rise slightly.

However, since July this year, viscose staple fiber has been showing a downward trend. As of September 30, the factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China was 13840 yuan/ton, down 11.62% from July 1, and 6.86% in September. It is hard to find a good demand side. The air atmosphere is thick, and the delivery of human cotton yarn is difficult to improve. The enthusiasm for raw material procurement is average, and the demand for replenishment is mainly. Since the end of the month, the price of raw material dissolving pulp has been lowered, further promoting the price center of viscose staple fiber to a higher level. In the future, the cost support is loose, the weak demand situation is difficult to ease, and the market is pessimistic. It is expected that the viscose staple fiber industry chain will continue to operate in a weak position.

The pressure of supply and demand is difficult to ease. Cotton textile prices continue to run weak

USDA released the latest supply and demand report in the middle of September. The report shows that, globally, in 2022/23, global cotton production and ending inventory increased month on month compared with August, while consumption decreased month on month. The domestic carry over inventory is high, and Xinjiang cotton enters the picking period. The market expects that the annual output of Xinjiang cotton in 22/23 will be around 5.8 million tons. In terms of demand, traders made replenishment for winter orders and e-commerce festival purchases, and the situation of enterprises receiving orders improved, but short orders and small orders still dominated, with no obvious characteristics in peak seasons. The situation of oversupply is difficult to change in the short term. The domestic cotton price continued to decline. As of September 30, the average market price of domestic cotton (3128B) was 15479 yuan/ton, down 3.16% from the beginning of the month.

Analysts from the business community believe that the textile market in September, especially chemical fiber products, showed a good rise, boosted by rising costs and the “Golden Ninth” traditional peak season. It is expected that the textile market will show a strong trend in October due to the superposition of positive news such as demand improvement, inventory decline, and cost support. However, we still need to pay attention to the changes in crude oil prices, follow-up equipment maintenance, new equipment production, and the sustainability of demand.