Monthly Archives: September 2022

Polyacrylamide market in September was stable at both ends and fluctuated slightly in the middle

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyacrylamide commodity index on September 29 was 94.53, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.23% from the highest point of 111.51 (2021-11-03) in the cycle, and up 14.04% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

 

PVA 0588 ( PVA BP05)

Commodity market: According to the data monitoring of the business community, the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s domestic market in September was basically stable at the end and beginning of the month, and fluctuated slightly in the middle of the month, first up and then down. Among them, the mainstream market quotation on the first day was about 15542.86 yuan/ton, and the main market quotation on the 29th was 15375.71 yuan/ton, with a maximum monthly amplitude of 1.08%. This month, the water treatment plants in the main domestic production areas have normal production and sufficient inventory, while the downstream demand has not changed much. The overall market of polyacrylamide is mainly stable, supplemented by small movements.

 

Raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of the business cooperative, the domestic acrylonitrile market was firm in September, and the prices of some enterprises were lowered at the end of the month. On the first day, the market reported 8900 yuan/ton, and on the 29th, 9870 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 10.9%. The market situation of acrylonitrile in this month is generally firm, the operating rate is basically stable, and the overall starting rate is 60% to 70%. From the middle of August to the end of this month, the price of raw propylene fluctuates higher, while the downstream stores stock up slightly before the National Day holiday, with firm offers from merchants; According to the analysis, the recent firm offer of merchants is supported by the current acrylonitrile cost and demand, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to strengthen in the short term.

 

Raw acrylic acid: according to the data of the business society, the average price of acrylic acid in East China on September 29 was 8666.67 yuan/ton, up 14.54% compared with the price on the first day, down 37.80% year-on-year in a three-month cycle, and down 52.81% compared with the same period last year. In the first half of the year, the market price of raw propylene rose gradually, and the cost support rose gradually; The market was stable and weak in the latter half of the year, and the cost pressure remained, but the demand side was flat and the buying atmosphere was average, so the early inventory was more digested. With regard to the future market, the cost support still exists, the holidays are approaching, the downstream customers have basically completed their stock preparation, and the market trading atmosphere is stable. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be mainly stable in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the changes in market news.

 

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LNG for production. According to the data of the business community, the market of LNG in September was volatile and rising, and the overall trend was positive: the average price of domestic LNG on the 29th was 7176 yuan/ton, up 1284 yuan/ton or 21.79% from 5892 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and up 14.09% from the same period last year. Among them, the highest price in this month is 7176 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the lowest price is 5892 yuan/ton on the first day. The market situation in this month is basically going all the way. At present, it is near the National Day holiday, and a large number of goods are replenished downstream due to transportation considerations. There was a strong buying atmosphere on the floor, and the rising trend continued. With the maintenance of the Sino Russian pipeline, the on-site supply is reduced. It is expected that the domestic LNG price trend will continue to rise in the short term.

 

Future market forecast: Polyacrylamide manufacturers in the main production area are operating normally, with sufficient inventory and stable downstream demand. The logistics of chemicals during the holiday is limited, resulting in a slight concentration of orders in the days before the holiday, but the overall price changes little; It is expected that the demand will remain stable after the festival, and the polyacrylamide market will remain stable mainly in the case of small changes in raw material costs.

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The rise of phenol in China accelerated

In September, the domestic phenol market ended the narrow range of rise and fall in August, showing an accelerated upward trend, and the smooth breakthrough of 10000 yuan has not yet peaked. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of phenol offered nationwide will be 9312 yuan/ton on August 1, 2022, 9512 yuan/ton on September 1, and 11075 yuan/ton on September 27, up 16.5% in September.

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

As of September 27, the quotation of the national mainstream phenol negotiation market: 11000 yuan/ton for the mainstream tank car negotiation in East China, 11100-11150 yuan/ton for Shandong, 11050 yuan/ton for the surrounding areas of Yanshan, 11050 yuan/ton for South China and 11250 yuan/ton for Henan. The goods preparation before the festival continues. The domestic supply continues to be tight, and the import port stock reaches a low level of 13000 tons. Under the tension, the low level does not go out. The downstream is still just in need of replenishment, and the turnover of new orders declines due to factors such as holiday logistics and high raw materials.

 

In September, the domestic phenol market accelerated to rise mainly because of the tight supply.

 

First, the operating rate of domestic equipment maintenance declined. On August 29, the 300000 t/a phenol and ketone plant of Huizhou Zhongxin was shut down for 7 days due to power failure in the park; on September 6, the 650000 t/a phenol and ketone plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase I was shut down for 7 days to wash the tower, and the 650000 t/a plant of Phase II was 90%; The social operating rate was 70% in the first half of the year, and increased to 80% in the second half of the year with the restart and load increase of major units.

 

Second, the harbor stock touched the bottom periodically and the shipping date was delayed due to typhoon. After the Mid Autumn Festival, the typhoon affected the delay of the arrival of ships and cargoes, and the loading and unloading of some domestic spot cargoes were mostly delayed, thus the short-term port supply was restrained.

 

The demand increases, and the downstream products are rising fiercely, which is good for the raw material side

 

In August, Cangzhou Dahua BPA plant was successfully put into operation, and the demand for phenol is expected to increase. Since September, BPA has continued the trend of last month and accelerated its upward trend. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic market price of BPA was 13000 yuan/ton on September 1, and the market price rose to 16500 yuan/ton on September 27, up 29% in September. It is mainly due to the tight supply. First, the main manufacturers mainly supply long-term customers, with limited external sales of spot goods. Second, the supply of imported goods is limited, with contracts accounting for a large proportion. In September, the RMB continued to depreciate, the US dollar exchange rate exceeded 7, and the external market simultaneously boosted the import negotiations cautiously. In addition, due to the typhoon weather in mid month, the import shipment date was delayed to varying degrees. Third, the supply of domestic unit maintenance has declined. During the shutdown and maintenance of Sinopec’s Well 3 unit, Zhongxin in Huizhou stopped to the fifth day of the beginning of this month, and PICC in Yanhua resumed to restart on the fifteenth day. At present, the industry’s operating rate is around 70%.

 

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Phenol rose sharply in September as a whole, but there was also a slight correction in the middle, mainly because the downstream demand for other downstream products was average, except for bisphenol A. For example, after the high temperature and low season of phenolic resin in summer, the raw material phenol was at a high level in September, and with the weather cooling, the phenolic resin should have a higher operating rate. However, due to the rising raw materials, it was difficult for the cost side to accept and restrain the overall demand, and the purchase of raw material phenol was limited; Other downstream areas also show difficulty in digesting high costs to curb overall demand.

 

From the perspective of the business community, the tight supply situation before the short-term holiday is hard to change, and the transportation near the National Day holiday is also restrained. From the perspective of the demand side, the demand for bisphenol A continues to be insufficient for other downstream follow-up, and the acceptance of high price phenol is limited. However, Lihuayi and others on the 27th raised 200 yuan/ton again, and the factory was listed for 11100 yuan/ton. The ports in East China near the National Day holiday only made up 13000 tons, which is hard to change. It is expected that phenol will operate stably in the short term, and the negotiation space in East China will be 11000-1100 yuan/ton.

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Macro factors dominate the recent decline and production reduction supports the aluminum price

On September 27, the aluminum price was lowered

 

PVA 0588 ( PVA BP05)

According to the data of the business community, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on September 27 was 18280 yuan/ton, a daily drop of 1.12%, down 0.44% from the average market price of 18360 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (9.1), and down 20.31% from the average market price of 22940 yuan/ton in the same period last year.

 

On September 27, the aluminum commodity index was 102.18, down 1.16 points from yesterday, down 24.58% from the cycle’s highest point of 135.49 (2021-10-19), and up 88.45% from the lowest point of 54.22 on November 24, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

Fundamentals Overview

 

Supply and demand:

 

On the supply side, the production limit caused by the shortage of water and electricity in Yunnan may be further expanded, or it may reach 20-30%. At present, the annual output reduction in Yunnan has reached more than 1.3 million tons. Although Sichuan and Chongqing are promoting the process of production recovery, the overall supply has declined.

 

On the demand side, the peak demand season has come, but in terms of the recent downstream commencement, the growth is relatively slow. The operating rate of domestic leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises continued to rise slightly by 0.7 percentage points to 67.1% month on month. In September, the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises was mainly stable, and the recovery was less than expected.

 

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Inventory:

 

According to statistics, as of the 26th, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum mainstream areas was about 650000 tons, 14000 tons less than that of last Thursday, 166000 tons less than that of last Thursday, and 26000 tons less than that of the end of August. As of September 26, LME aluminum inventory was 338850 tons, 1500 tons less than the previous day.

 

Import and export:

 

According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in August 2022 is about 540400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.14% and a year-on-year increase of 10.22%. The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products from January to August 2022 was 4.71 million tons, an increase of 31.5% from January to August last year.

 

Future market forecast

 

After the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in September, due to its more than expected hawkish statement, the market tension was exacerbated. The dollar continued to rise, risky assets were under pressure, liquidity tightened and the economic recession dominated the market, and the aluminum market was under pressure.

 

In the short term, the aluminum price is still supported by periodic production reduction. We will wait and see whether the actual demand in the downstream is warmer. It is expected that the downward space of aluminum price will narrow in the short term.

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Weekly evaluation of ethylene glycol (September 16 to September 26)

According to the data of the business society, the average price of oil to ethylene glycol P value was 4366.67 yuan/ton on September 26, down 1.69% from the market average price of 4441.67 yuan/ton on September 16.

 

PVA 0599 (PVA BF05)

From the data of the supply side, the weekly supply of MEG fell back slightly last week, down 2.44% to 43.98% month on month, and the load of coal MEG fell slightly 2.08% to 28.67% month on month, mainly due to the shutdown and maintenance of some coal plants; However, the restart device is still in the process of starting, and there is a difference in the starting time in the near future. It is expected that the load will rise significantly in the later period. Recent plant developments are as follows:

 

Oil production: Zhenhai Refining&Chemical’s 800000t unit is scheduled to be overhauled for one month in November, Fujian Gulei’s 700000t unit is expected to be restarted in the middle of next week, Hengli’s one unit will be restarted, and the other 180000t unit will be restarted at the weekend;

 

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Coal production: Tongliao 300000 ton plant was restarted at half load, SIA restarted the 300000 ton plant of Shaanxi Weihua, and Jianyuan 240000 ton plant of 400000 ton plant. The 600000 ton plant of Yulin, Shaanxi, is in production. It is expected that the materials will be discharged in October, Woneng 300000 ton plant will restart after a short stop, Xinjiang Tianye 650000 ton plant will restart later), Guanghui 400000 ton plant will restart later, Tianying will restart failure, Inner Mongolia Yankuang will reduce the load, and the annual maintenance will be canceled, Guangxi Huayi stopped for maintenance for half a month on September 16.

 

According to the demand data, the terminal demand in the peak season has weakened. Although the short-term demand can still be maintained, MEG’s domestic supply will pick up significantly in the future. This week, despite the rebound in arrival in Hong Kong, although it is still continuing to destock, the extent of destocking has slowed down.

 

Forecast: The supply side rebounds, the downstream demand is weak, and MEG may be weak in the short term.

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The advantages are insufficient. The polyethylene market price is weak

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8182.86 yuan/ton on September 19, and the average price was 8175.71 yuan/ton on September 23. The weekly decline was 0.09%, up 0.62% compared with August 1.

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) was 10200 yuan/ton on September 19 and 10100.00 yuan/ton on September 23, with a drop of 0.98% within the week, up 0.50% compared with August 1.

 

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 8600 yuan/ton on September 19 and 8533.33 yuan/ton on September 23, respectively, with a drop of 0.78% within the week, 2.48% lower than that on August 1.

 

This week (September 19-23), the domestic polyethylene spot market was operating in a weak position, and the three major spot varieties all declined, but the fluctuation range was relatively limited. LLDPE showed a trend of falling first and then rising, while LDPE and HDPE showed a trend of stabilizing first and then falling. In the week, the market was obviously bearish. In terms of cost, the decline of international crude oil was the main factor, which brought some bad news. The ex factory prices of petrochemical enterprises are mostly lowered. In terms of demand, although the order volume of downstream factories has increased, it is still dominated by rigid demand, and the market trading atmosphere is general. In terms of supply, there is no enterprise device parking in the week, and the market supply is abundant.

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From September 19 to 23, Liansu futures market fell first and then rose, with the decline more than the increase. On September 23, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2301 was 8150, the highest price was 8168, the lowest price was 8020, the closing price was 8037, the previous settlement price was 8067, the settlement price was 8087, the drop was 30, the trading volume was 383321, the position was 397233, and the daily increase was -14411. (Quotation unit: yuan/ton)

 

In terms of current raw materials, international crude oil stopped falling and rising on the 22nd, with relative support from the cost side. The prices of some LLDPE enterprises increased, but by a small margin. On the demand side, the National Day holiday is coming, and replenishment is expected before the downstream festival. On the supply side, the current market is relatively abundant. It is expected that the polyethylene spot market will continue to adjust mainly in the short term, with limited range.

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Lithium iron phosphate market is strong (9.15-9.22)

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of September 22, the price of lithium iron phosphate, an excellent power product, was 155000 yuan/ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate rose by a narrow margin, 1.97% higher than that of the same period last week. The price fluctuated slightly. The downstream just needed to purchase mainly. The purchasing atmosphere was general. The supply side was normal. The operating rate was normal. Lithium iron phosphate was mainly ordered by contract customers. The number of new orders was limited. The overall market negotiation atmosphere was fair, At present, the mainstream price range is 152000-155000 yuan/ton.

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

The price of lithium iron phosphate, an excellent power product, is 155000 yuan/ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate is mainly strong, and the price range is maintained at 152000-155000 yuan/ton. The downstream just needs to purchase. The purchasing atmosphere is general, and the overall market is stable, medium and strong. At present, the manufacturer’s supply is limited to new customers, and the contract customers are mainly responsible for ordering and shipping. The overall market negotiation atmosphere is fair.

 

The upstream lithium carbonate mainly operates stably, with an industrial grade of 505000 yuan/ton and a battery grade of 530000 yuan/ton. With the arrival of the fourth quarter, there is a strong bullish atmosphere.

 

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Chemical commodity index: On September 21, the chemical index was 973 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 30.50% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 62.71% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

 

According to the analysts of LiFePO4 from the business community, LiFePO4 is stable and strong, with a price range of 152000-155000 yuan/ton.

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Dimethyl carbonate market rose as a whole (9.1-9.21)

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of September 20, 2022, the reference average ex factory price of domestic industrial dimethyl carbonate was 7033 yuan/ton, basically unchanged compared with September 1, 2022, and increased by 583 yuan/ton or 9.04% compared with September 1, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 6450 yuan/ton).

 

PVA 0588 ( PVA BP05)

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that since September (9.1-9.21), the domestic market of dimethyl carbonate has been running upward as a whole. At the beginning of September, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market had a small decline, the downstream demand support was loose, the atmosphere in the market was light, and the market trading was flat.

 

In the middle of September, after the Mid Autumn Festival, the domestic market of dimethyl carbonate steadily rose, the trading atmosphere in the market warmed up, and some dimethyl carbonate plants raised their prices by 200-300 yuan/ton. As of September 15, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate was around 6600-6800 yuan/ton, with a half month increase of 3.88%.

 

In late September, the market focus of domestic dimethyl carbonate continued to move up, and the National Day was coming. The downstream of dimethyl carbonate was prepared in advance. The atmosphere of on-site trading and investment was active, and the supply pressure of the factory was low. The factory’s quotation was firm and raised by about 300-600 yuan/ton. As of September 20, the domestic market price of dicarboxylic acid has basically exceeded the 7000 yuan mark, with reference to the 7100 yuan/ton range. On the 21st, the atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate on the site was weaker, and the quotations of some factories were slightly lowered by 200 yuan/ton. As of September 21, the domestic market price of dicarboxylic acid was around 6700-7200 yuan/ton, with an increase of more than 9% since September. At present, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate in the market is mild, and the overall market is dominated by consolidation at a high level.

 

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In terms of upstream propylene oxide, the recent (9.14-9.19) propylene oxide market declined. Recently, the market price of raw propylene has risen, and the cost support has been strengthened. Since the 14th, although the supply side inventory has accumulated slightly, it is temporarily controllable. The demand side is flat and just needs to follow up. The downstream purchasing sentiment is not high, so it is mainly cautious and wait-and-see. On the 19th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide market in Shandong Province was lowered to 9950-10100 yuan/ton. Some devices at the supply side recovered, and the demand side is still flat, waiting and waiting.

 

Future trend analysis

 

At present, domestic dimethyl carbonate supply and demand transmission is still good, downstream pre festival goods are well prepared to support the market, and the overall mentality of the industry is still good. Dimethyl carbonate mathematicians from the business community believe that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will mostly be sideways organized and operated, and the price may also have a small range adjustment. The specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific information changes on the supply and demand side.

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International cobalt price supports the slight recovery of domestic cobalt price this week

The domestic cobalt price rose slightly this week

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of September 20, the cobalt price was 346400 yuan/ton, up 0.87% from 343400 yuan/ton on September 12; The cobalt price fell 1.17% compared with that on September 1. Cobalt prices rose slightly this week. On September 20, the cobalt commodity index was 124.60, unchanged from yesterday, down 47.85% from the cycle’s highest point of 238.91 (2018-04-15), and up 78.41% from the lowest point of 69.84 on July 5, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

 

It can be seen from the weekly histogram of cobalt price trend that the recent trend of cobalt price has risen and fallen, and the decline of cobalt market has eased. Since the cobalt price rose for three weeks in August, the cobalt market has started to recover. At the end of August and the beginning of September, the cobalt price fell rapidly for two consecutive weeks, and the overall recovery of the cobalt market has not come. However, after that, the cobalt price rose slightly, and the cobalt market showed signs of recovery.

 

The international cobalt price rose in shock this week

 

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It can be seen from the MB cobalt price trend chart that the MB cobalt price rose slightly this week, the international cobalt price trend continued to rise, and the international cobalt market continued to be strong, supporting the domestic cobalt price to a certain extent.

 

Future outlook

 

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst of the Business Agency, believes that the cobalt price rose slightly this week, and the cobalt market is on the rebound. Recently, lithium salt related enterprises started to adjust, cobalt salt prices rose slightly, and the supply and demand of cobalt market adjusted slightly, but it did not fundamentally change the supply and demand balance, and the support for cobalt price increase was limited; The international cobalt price remained strong. The MB cobalt price rose slightly in September, which was good for the domestic cobalt market. In general, the rise of international cobalt price and domestic cobalt salt price has a certain positive impact on the domestic cobalt market, but it has not broken the existing supply and demand balance of the cobalt market, and the trend of cobalt price is relatively stable. At the same time, the cobalt market is still short of interest in the near future, and the pressure on the cobalt price to fall is small. It is expected that the cobalt price in the future will fluctuate and consolidate.

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Raw materials rose, phosphoric acid market continued to rise (9.12-9.19)

1、 Price trend

 

PVA 0599 (PVA BF05)

According to the bulk data list of the business community, the average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in the domestic market was 9358 yuan/ton on September 12, and 10320 yuan/ton on September 19. This week, the domestic price of thermal phosphoric acid rose 10.28%.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Phosphoric acid market prices continued to rise this week. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus continues to strengthen, the cost continues to increase, and the phosphoric acid raw material is well supported. The rise of yellow phosphorus pushed the phosphoric acid market up sharply. As of September 19, the average market price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was about 10320 yuan/ton. The ex factory quotation of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan is 10200-11000 yuan/ton, that of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan is 10300 yuan/ton, that of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei is 10200 yuan/ton, and that of 85% wet phosphoric acid in Nanjing is 9600 yuan/ton.

 

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the overall market situation of domestic medium and high-end grade phosphorus ore continued to operate stably this week. As of September 19, the reference price of phosphorus ore was 1064.00. The supply of phosphate rock in the yard is still tight, and the supply side continues to provide some support to the market. At present, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate rock yard is mild, and the downstream is mainly purchased on demand.

 

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In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus, the price of yellow phosphorus market rose this week, continuing the rise of the Mid Autumn Festival. At present, the market turnover is good, the National Day holiday is approaching, the downstream stock is more active, the spot is a little tight, and the yellow phosphorus enterprises are moving smoothly. As of September 19, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus was about 37000 yuan/ton, Sichuan yellow phosphorus was about 37000 yuan/ton, and Guizhou yellow phosphorus was about 36500 yuan/ton.

 

3、 Future market forecast

 

The phosphoric acid analysts of the business association believe that the phosphoric acid market has risen in shock due to the impact of the upstream market recently. The number of downstream inquiries increased, and the on-site delivery and investment increased. With the rising trend of raw material market unchanged, it is expected that the price of phosphoric acid market will continue to rise in the short term.

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After the festival, pure benzene rose and fell (2022.9.13-9.16)

1、 Price trend

 

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According to the data from the bulk list of business cooperatives, the price of pure benzene rose slightly this week, and fell slightly. On September 9, the price of pure benzene was 7700-7850 yuan/ton (the average price was 7767 yuan/ton). On Friday (September 16), the price of pure benzene was 7750-7950 yuan/ton (the average price was 7817 yuan/ton). The average price was 0.64% higher than that of last week and 10.04% lower than that of the same period last year.

 

2、 Analysis and review

 

Affected by the typhoon weather, the arrival of the ship was delayed, and the shipment in Shandong was good, so the pure benzene rose after the festival. However, the crude oil fell sharply, coupled with the softening of styrene, driving the center of gravity of pure benzene to weaken, and near the weekend, pure benzene fell back slightly. This week, the port inventory of pure benzene in East China increased by 5000 tons to 64600 tons compared with last week, and the port inventory continued to accumulate.

 

This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene stabilized at 7750 yuan/ton.

 

In terms of external market, the Asian pure benzene in the external market fell after rising this week. On Thursday (September 15), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was 901 dollars/ton, up 15 dollars/ton year-on-year, or 1.69%; The reference import price in East China was 937 US dollars/ton, a year-on-year increase of 17 US dollars/ton, or 1.85%.

 

PVA 0588 ( PVA BP05)

In terms of crude oil, European winter energy supply tension supported, and oil prices rose at the beginning of the week. However, under the pressure of high inflation, the market is worried that the Federal Reserve may significantly raise interest rates. The expectation of global economic recession continues to be depressed, and oil prices have fallen back in shock. As of September 16, Brent price this week fell 1.49 dollars/barrel, or 1.6%, compared with last week; WTI fell 1.68 USD/barrel, or 1.94%.

 

Downstream: styrene: this week, styrene in Shandong fell back after rising. The price was 9510 yuan/ton on September 9 and 9700 yuan/ton on September 16, up 2% from last week and 0.44% from the same period last year.

 

Aniline: Aniline stabilized after rising this week. On September 16, the price in Shandong was 11600-11800 yuan/ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 12000-12300 yuan/ton, 1.95% higher than last week and 8.8% higher than the same period last year.

 

3、 Future market forecast

 

In terms of crude oil, the crude oil market is long and short, and the energy supply is expected to be tight in winter; However, the expectation of interest rate increase in Europe and the United States is strong, and the market is still worried about economic recession. Continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, OPEC+’s decision on crude oil production, the impact of the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.

 

Downstream: styrene, the main product in the downstream: the market for pure benzene fluctuated and consolidated, with poor cost support; Styrene rose sharply in the early stage. At present, downstream profits are limited, and the receiving mood is not high. It is expected that the styrene market will fall mainly in the short term.

 

Fuhaichuang and Hainan Refining&Chemical aromatics plants were restarted this week, and the operating rate of pure benzene increased; Under the influence of the typhoon, it is estimated that the number of ships arriving at Hong Kong next week is still low; And near the National Day holiday, downstream stock or support the price of pure benzene. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external price trend, pure benzene port inventory, pure benzene and downstream device dynamics on prices.

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