1、 Price trend
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According to the bulk list data of business society, mixed xylene fell violently this month, and the decline was not large as a whole. On July 1, the price of mixed xylene was 8470 yuan / ton; On July 28, the price was 8160 yuan / ton, down 3.66% from the beginning of the month and up 38.31% from the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and comment
The domestic mixed xylene market performed well in the first half of July, although crude oil and external market prices fell. Due to the low inventory in Shandong, the downstream PX followed up actively, and the spot supply was tight, supporting the strong operation of mixed xylene. However, with the weakening of cost support, the downstream turned cautious about the follow-up of high priced mixed xylene. Under the drag of the poor terminal gasoline market, the high price of mixed xylene was difficult to maintain, and the price fell weakly.
In terms of crude oil, there was a long short game in crude oil during the month, and concerns about tight supply remained, but the Federal Reserve and many central banks increased interest rates, intensifying market concerns about economic recession, and crude oil fluctuated widely. As of July 28, Brent fell by $7.67 / barrel, or 6.68%; WTI fell $9.34 / barrel, or 8.83%.
In the external market, Asian mixed xylene rebounded after a sharp decline in the external market this month. On July 28, the price of imported mixed xylene from South Korea was $1085 / ton, down $183 / ton, or 14.43%; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was $1016 / ton, down $266 / ton, or 20.75%.
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In the PX market, domestic PX prices stabilized after falling in the middle of this month. The price was 10000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 9550 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price fell by 4.5% compared with the beginning of the month and increased by 34.51% compared with the same period last year.
In terms of ox market, the price of ox in East China fell this month, with the price at 8800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 8300 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price fell by 5.68% compared with the beginning of the month and increased by 33.87% compared with the same period last year.
In terms of gasoline, the gasoline market in Shandong Province was weak this month, and the price fell violently. The price was 9092 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 8479 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 6.75% from the beginning of the month and up 6.9% from the same period last year.
3、 Aftermarket forecast
On the cost side (crude oil), the macro side is still affected by the economy. The interest rate hikes of central banks in many countries bring downward risks to the economy, and the outlook for global commodities is also affected by it; However, the logic of medium and short-term supply and demand fundamentals has not changed, the expectation of supply tightening has not been lifted, and the trend of crude oil is still full of uncertainty. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ production increase decision, US crude oil and refined oil inventory dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.
Crude oil shocks, and the cost side support is loose; Downstream demand has weakened, and it is expected that new xylene will be put into production in the third quarter for the production of PX, and PX outsourcing may be reduced. On the whole, the price of mixed xylene is still high, and there is still room for decline in the later stage. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil market, external market trend, mixed xylene device dynamics, port inventory and downstream demand on mixed xylene prices.
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