Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price trend of cryolite in Henan this week decreased slightly. On August 14, the average market price in Henan was 7625 yuan / ton, down 25 yuan / ton compared with the price at the beginning of the week, down 0.33% month on month.

quotations analysis

This week, the cryolite market is waiting to be sorted out and operated. The cryolite quotation is still high, the raw material supply is tight, the fuel cost of enterprise production and processing is high, the manufacturer’s production cost is large, the cryolite device is mostly operated at low load, the enterprise’s inventory is tight, the downstream demand is stable, and the cryolite market is supported to operate firmly. The attitude of the industry is mainly waiting. During the week, individual manufacturers adjusted their prices according to their own shipment conditions. As of August 14, the ex factory price of cryolite in Shandong was 8000 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of cryolite in Henan was 7200-8600 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week.

As of August 14, the average market price of soda ash in the upstream was about 2690 yuan / ton, and the price at the beginning of the week was 2700 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 0.37% in the week. The downstream demand was general, the purchase in the market was rational, the trading atmosphere in the market was weak, the downstream support was limited, the market center of gravity moved downward, and the soda ash market was consolidated.

The downstream aluminum market continued to fluctuate, and the price trend rose first and then fell. On August 14, the aluminum price was about 18686 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 1.50% in the week. The macro factors dominated the price trend of aluminum price in the early stage. As the price gradually approached the cost side, the fundamental factors began to rise. However, the social inventory began to accumulate, which suppressed the rise of aluminum price to a certain extent. The market performance was strong supply and weak demand. In the future, the aluminum market fluctuated and operated.

Future forecast

There is a strong wait-and-see mood in the domestic cryolite market. Most of the manufacturers’ quotations are stable at high levels, the on-site inventory is tight, the downstream demand is stable, the cryolite market is running at a high level, and it is difficult to improve the shortage of raw materials in a short time. It is expected that the cryolite market will continue to be high and strong in the future.

Aluminum price bottoms out and rebounds

According to the data of business agency, on August 15, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 18243.33 yuan / ton, down 2.37% on a daily basis, down 0.40% from the average market price of 18316.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (8.1), down 8.97% from the average market price of 19090 yuan / ton in the same period last year.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average price of aluminum ingot Market is 24240 yuan / ton, and the recent deviation from the peak value falls by 24.74%. Based on the starting point of recent recovery (July 14, 2022), the average price of aluminum ingot Market is 17450 yuan / ton, and the recent recovery increases by 4.55%.

Fundamentals overview

In the early stage, affected by capital factors and against the background of interest rate hikes by central banks, commodities plunged sharply from June to July, and aluminum prices also fell all the way down, once falling below 17500 yuan / ton. Recently, the decline has stabilized and returned to above 18000 yuan / ton. Last week, due to the unexpected events in Sichuan, the aluminum production was affected by the high temperature weather, and the local production was expected to be reduced by 10000 tons. The aluminum price news was good. This week’s positive news on the supply side continued, but based on the output data of the first seven months, the year-on-year increase was 1.1%, and the output data of July increased by 4.5%; According to the warehouse out data of the mainstream regions last week, 147000, a month on month decrease; Downstream demand slightly increased year-on-year and weakened month on month.

Macro factors dominated the price trend of aluminum price in the early stage. As the price gradually approached the cost side, the fundamental factors began to rise. From the inventory data, the social inventory began to accumulate in the recent period, and the previous inventory removal momentum weakened; In terms of capacity data, from January to July, the newly built capacity was 1.03 million tons / year, the newly invested capacity was 1.67 million tons / year, the resumed production capacity was 2.579 million tons / year, and the reduced production capacity was 965000 tons / year; In the first half of the year, aluminum was supplied domestically and the capacity utilization rate was high. On the one hand, based on the relatively high price of aluminum ingots in the early period, the operating profit was good; On the other hand, it is due to the capacity ceiling effect. The output of electrolytic aluminum increased in the first half of the year.

Future market forecast

In the short term, the probability of sideways fluctuation increases, and the inventory starts to accumulate gradually, which suppresses the aluminum price to a certain extent. The recent supply side news is favorable to the aluminum price, and it is expected that the consolidation volatility will increase.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, the price of pure benzene continued to decline this week. On August 5, the price of pure benzene was 8100-8300 yuan / ton (average price: 8317 yuan / ton), and on Friday (August 12), the price of pure benzene was 7950-8200 yuan / ton (average price: 8042 yuan / ton), with an average price of 3.31% lower than last week and an increase of 6.94% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Cost side: crude oil rose as a whole this week, which has certain support for pure benzene. Supply side: the shutdown and maintenance devices in the early stage are restarted in succession, and the market supply is expected to increase in the later stage. The import cargo increased, and the inventory of pure benzene in East China port this week increased by 7000 tons to 31000 tons compared with last week. Demand side: most of the downstream units are in deficit, the unit shutdown decreases greatly, the operating rate decreases as a whole, and the demand for pure benzene weakens.

This week, Sinopec’s pure benzene price was reduced by 200 yuan / ton to 7950 yuan / ton.

On the external market, the Asian pure benzene in the external market this week mainly fell. On Thursday (August 11), the reference price of pure benzene in the South Korean market was US $953 / T, down US $40 / T year-on-year, down 4.03%; The import reference price in East China was 981 US dollars / ton, down 32 US dollars / ton or 3.16% year-on-year.

In terms of crude oil, US gasoline inventory dropped sharply this week, and gasoline demand rebounded significantly; In addition, the International Energy Agency raised its forecast of oil demand growth this year, and the pressure of demand decline was relieved. The oil price fluctuated and rose during the week. As of August 12, Brent price in this week increased by 3.23 USD / barrel or 3.4% compared with last week; WTI rose by US $3.08/barrel or 3.46%.

Downstream: styrene: this week, the styrene in Shandong fell sharply. The price was 9064 yuan / ton on August 5 and 8550 yuan / ton on August 12, down 5.67% from last week and 4.2% from the same period last year.

Aniline: this week, the aniline has softened by a wide margin. The raw material end continued to decline, the downstream maintained a rigid demand, and the aniline fundamentals became soft. The price of the company dropped several times during the week. On August 12, the price in Shandong was 10100-10300 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 10400-11200 yuan / ton, down 7.26% from last week and 2.31% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the oil market is stuck. The international oil price is still swaying in the expectation that the economic recession risk will affect demand and supply tension, and the trend is full of uncertainty. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic situation, etc. on crude oil prices.

With the increase of the operating rate of the pure benzene unit and the increase of imported pure benzene in the later period, the supply of pure benzene is expected to increase in the future. In addition, the downstream demand for pure benzene is relatively soft, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, the pure benzene market is concentrated, and the price is easy to fall but difficult to rise. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external price trends, pure benzene port inventory, pure benzene and downstream device dynamics on prices.

Overview of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, on August 11, the average price of silver market in the early morning was 4474 yuan / kg, down 0.01% on a daily basis, up 0.93% from the average price of spot market at the beginning of the month (August 1) of 4432.67 yuan / kg; Compared with the average price of 4770 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), the decrease was 6.21%.

On August 11, the spot market price of gold was 388.99 yuan / g, down 0.52% on a daily basis, up 1.85% from the early average price of 381.93 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (August 1); Compared with the average price of the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1) at 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 4.46%.

Comparison of price trends of precious metals (gold and silver) in recent 1 year

From the long-term perspective, the price trend of precious metals tends to be similar, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Macro policy

1. Domestic policy

According to the data of the Central Bank of China, China’s gold reserves at the end of July were 62.64 million ounces (about 1948.32 tons), which was the same as last month.

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on the 7th, in the first seven months of this year, the total value of China’s foreign trade imports and exports was 23.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.4% year-on-year. Among them, the export was 13.37 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%; Imports reached 10.23 trillion yuan, up 5.3% year-on-year.

2. International policy

After the quarterly adjustment in July, the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States increased by 528000, the largest increase since February this year. The US unemployment rate in July recorded 3.5%, the lowest since February 2020. Us non farm data was better than expected.

Future forecast

Influenced by the geopolitical factors of China and the United States, the uncertainty caused by the US House Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in the early stage triggered the rise of risk aversion. The non-agricultural data of the United States in July was better than expected, the inflation expectation of American consumers was significantly reduced, the sentiment was high, and the price of precious metals rebounded rapidly. But San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Daley said it was too early for the Federal Reserve to “declare victory” in the fight against high inflation. She did not rule out the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 0.75 percentage points for the third time in a row at the next policy meeting in September, but she also hinted that she initially supported the Federal Reserve to slow down the pace of interest rate increase, saying that the 0.5 percentage point increase in September was her basic position. The expected rise of interest rate hike has restrained the continuous upward movement of precious metal prices to a certain extent, and it is expected that the upward space of gold prices will narrow in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of August 10, the reference average price of 30% phosphate ore in the mainstream areas of China was around 1100 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that on August 1. Compared with July 1 (the reference price of phosphate rock was 1066 yuan / ton), the price was increased by 34 yuan / ton, or 3.12%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business association that in the first ten days of August, the domestic phosphate ore market was in a high-level consolidation operation. At present, the domestic phosphate rock supply is still tight, and the spot circulation is small. Some large phosphate rocks continue to be mainly used for their own use, while some other mining enterprises continue to receive pre-sale orders. The details are discussed in a single way according to the regional volume and other factors. For some enterprises that need to purchase phosphate ore as raw material, the continuous high price of phosphate rock and tight supply have brought certain pressure to the enterprises. As of August 10, the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China is around 1080-1150 yuan / ton, and the specific actual order is negotiated. The market price of 28% grade phosphorus ore is around 900-980 yuan / ton.

In the downstream yellow phosphorus, the market price of yellow phosphorus fell in the first week of August (8.1-8.7). On August 9, the market price of yellow phosphorus rose. According to the data monitoring of business agency, on August 10, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 27000 yuan / ton, down 0.92% compared with August 1 (27250 yuan / ton).

Prediction and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

The low inventory at the supply side supports the phosphorus ore market, and the downstream demand side performs well. The phosphorus ore data analyst of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will continue to be dominated by consolidation operation with high level and strong strength, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific changes in the supply and demand side.

Overview of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, on August 9, the average price of the silver market in the early morning was 4499.33 yuan / kg, up 1.50% from the average price of the spot market at the beginning of the month (August 1) of 4432.67 yuan / kg; Compared with the average price of 4770 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), the decrease was 5.67%.

On August 9, the spot market price of gold was 389.57 yuan / g, up 2.00% from the early average price of 381.93 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (August 1); Compared with the average price of the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1) at 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 4.62%.

Comparison of price trends of precious metals (gold and silver) in recent 1 year

From the long-term perspective, the price trend of precious metals tends to be similar, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Macro policy

1. Domestic policy

According to the data of the Central Bank of China, China’s gold reserves at the end of July were 62.64 million ounces (about 1948.32 tons), which was the same as last month.

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on the 7th, in the first seven months of this year, the total value of China’s foreign trade imports and exports was 23.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.4% year-on-year. Among them, the export was 13.37 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%; Imports reached 10.23 trillion yuan, up 5.3% year-on-year.

2. International policy

After the quarterly adjustment in July, the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States increased by 528000, the largest increase since February this year. The US unemployment rate in July recorded 3.5%, the lowest since February 2020. Us non farm data was better than expected.

Future forecast

Influenced by the geopolitical factors of China and the United States, the uncertainty caused by the US House Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in the early stage triggered the rise of risk aversion. The non-agricultural data of the United States in July was better than expected, the inflation expectation of American consumers was significantly reduced, the sentiment was high, and the price of precious metals rebounded rapidly. On the Fed’s policy news, Chicago Fed chairman Evans said that he hoped to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in September, and then continue to raise interest rates by 25 basis points until the beginning of the second quarter of 2023. San Francisco Fed chairman Daley said that the Fed’s fight against inflation is far from over, and officials are firmly committed to maintaining price stability. Cleveland Fed chairman mester said that the Fed still needs to see several months of evidence to prove that inflation has peaked before it can end the cycle of raising interest rates. In the short term, the price of precious metals may be strong under the support of sentiment in the uncertain factors.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agency, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 12500 yuan / ton on August 1, and the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 12000 yuan / ton on August 8. The price of caprolactam fell by 4.00% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The caprolactam market price continued to drop this week. The price of raw material pure benzene is lowered, and the cost of caprolactam is weak. The market demand is poor, and a small amount of downstream purchase is required. The on-site supply is fair, the trading volume is small, and the market is still depressed. As of August 8, the price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid was 13200 yuan / ton, and the acceptance was self drawn.

Raw material pure benzene fell weakly this week. This week, the inventory of pure benzene in East China port increased by 4000 tons, and the inventory is still tight. After filling the empty space at the end of the month, the speed of picking up goods at the downstream has slowed down significantly. In addition, most of the downstream have suffered losses, and the resistance to high price pure benzene has increased. The economic shutdown and maintenance have increased, and the demand for pure benzene has decreased. Due to poor downstream demand, Sinopec has lowered its listing price for many times, driving the market price down continuously. As of August 8, the price of domestic pure benzene was 8050-8200 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

The caprolactam analysts of business society believe that the current caprolactam market is mainly negative and the price continues to fall. When both the cost side and the demand side are weak, the depressed market is difficult to change. It is expected that the market price of caprolactam will continue to decline in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, the price of pure benzene fell weakly this week. On July 29, the price of pure benzene was 8800-9000 yuan / ton (the average price was 8892 yuan / ton). On Friday (August 5), the price of pure benzene was 8100-8300 yuan / ton (the average price was 8317 yuan / ton). The average price was 6.47% lower than that of last week and 9.15% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, the inventory of pure benzene in East China port increased by 4000 tons, and the inventory is still tight. After filling the empty space at the end of the month, the speed of picking up goods at the downstream has slowed down significantly. In addition, most of the downstream have suffered losses, and the resistance to high price pure benzene has increased. The economic shutdown and maintenance have increased, and the demand for pure benzene has decreased. Due to poor downstream demand, Sinopec has lowered its listing price for many times, driving the market price down continuously.

This week, the price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was reduced by 700 yuan / ton to 8150 yuan / ton (the price of pure benzene in Hebei and Shandong regions was reduced to 8150 yuan / ton).

On the external market, the Asian pure benzene in the external market fell by a wide margin this week. On Thursday (August 4), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was US $993 / T, a year-on-year decrease of US $92 / T, a decrease of 8.48%; The import reference price in East China was US $1013 / T, with a year-on-year decrease of US $86 / T, or 7.83%.

In terms of crude oil, the US crude oil and gasoline inventories increased, adding to the weak economic data, the market worried about the slowdown of oil demand, and the crude oil fell broadly in the week. As of August 5, Brent price of this week has dropped by 15.09 USD / barrel or 13.72% compared with last week; WTI fell by 9.61 USD / barrel, or 9.74%.

Downstream: styrene: this week, the styrene in Shandong continued to fall. The price was 9736 yuan / ton on July 29 and 9064 yuan / ton on August 5, down 6.9% from last week and up 0.71% from the same period last year.

Aniline: aniline fell slightly this week. On August 5, the price in Shandong was 10900-11130 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 11200-11600 yuan / ton, down 0.34% from last week and up 4.67% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the oil market is stuck. Due to the weak economic data caused by the interest rate hikes of many countries, the pressure of crude oil decline increases. However, OPEC + has limited production capacity and oil supply is still tight. Crude oil is a long and short game, and the trend is full of uncertainty. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic situation, etc. on crude oil prices.

Downstream: the main downstream product styrene: the cost support is poor, the spot demand for styrene is continuously low, the inventory is rising, and the price of styrene is falling. It is expected that the short-term styrene market will fall.

Bad news: the trend of cost is unstable and the support for pure benzene market is insufficient. The downstream follow-up of pure benzene is poor, the shutdown maintenance is relatively concentrated, and the demand for pure benzene is reduced. The aromatics units of Qilu Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical and Shanghai Petrochemical were restarted, and the expected supply increment in the later period. Good news: the port inventory of pure benzene is low, and the short-term tight supply still supports the price of pure benzene. On the whole, the pure benzene market has concentrated bad news, and the price is easy to fall but difficult to rise. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external price trends, pure benzene port inventory, pure benzene and downstream device dynamics on prices.

At the end of last week, the price of ethylene oxide was reduced by 250 yuan / ton, which was not followed by private enterprise zhongsanjiang chemical. At present, the mainstream ex factory price is 6300 yuan / ton. Based on the current ethylene outer disk price in Northeast Asia, ethylene oxide is currently losing about 700 yuan.

On the upstream side, the Asian naphtha market is still under pressure this week. The supply of goods in the market is sufficient, and the spot purchase is expected to slow down. Some cracking units are shut down for maintenance in advance, resulting in weak demand. The FOB Singapore spot valuation of naphtha fell to $77.22 per barrel, and the spot price difference fell to +1.09 per barrel. The bottom of Northeast Asia ethylene outer disk fluctuated and consolidated around $900 / ton. As of the close of Asia on August 3, the spot price difference between ethylene and naphtha CFR Japan was $153.25 / ton, and the profit margin of ethylene rebounded.

The supply of ethylene oxide is tight, the Sanjiang plant is basically shut down, and only one set of self use is left. The second line of the satellite is delayed, and the inventory of silbon has bottomed out. The guarantee contract is the main one, and the scattered orders will not be received for the time being. Far East United and Zhongke refining and chemical plants are gradually restarted, but it is difficult to fill the market vacancy in the near future, and the tight supply side is difficult to change.

At present, the price of ethylene oxide has basically hit the bottom, and some downstream manufacturers have made stock moves, but at present, the overall demand of the industry continues to be weak, and the stock demand remains conservative.

Forecast: there is no substantial improvement in demand, and EO is running at a low level.

Aluminum price bottomed out and rebounded

According to the data of business agency, on August 3, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 18136.67 yuan / ton, up 0.20% daily, down 0.44% from the average market price of 18316.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (8.1), and down 7.90% from the average market price of 19090 yuan / ton in the same period last year.

At the peak in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingots was 24240 yuan / ton, and the recent deviation from the peak fell by 24.77%. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingots was 18693.33 yuan / ton, down 2.44% recently.

Fundamentals overview

After the aluminum price stopped falling and stabilized, it rose slightly. In the early stage, affected by capital factors, under the background of interest rate hikes by central banks, bulk commodities plunged sharply from June to July, and aluminum prices also fell all the way, once falling below 17500 yuan / ton. Recently, they stopped falling and stabilized, returning to above 18000 yuan / ton.

Macro factors dominated the early aluminum price trend. As the price gradually approached the cost side, fundamental factors began to rise. From the inventory data, the recent social inventory began to show a cumulative trend, and the previous inventory removal momentum weakened; In terms of capacity data, from January to July, the newly built capacity was 1.03 million tons / year, the newly invested capacity was 1.67 million tons / year, the resumed production capacity was 2.579 million tons / year, and the reduced production capacity was 965000 tons / year; The domestic supply of aluminum in the first half of the year has a high capacity utilization rate. On the one hand, based on the relatively high price of aluminum ingots in the early stage, the operating profit is good; On the other hand, it is due to the capacity ceiling effect. Electrolytic aluminum production increased in the first half of the year.

Aftermarket forecast

In the short term, the probability of sideways volatility increased, and inventories began to accumulate gradually, suppressing aluminum prices to a certain extent. At present, the growth rate of downstream demand is unlikely to support the operation of high aluminum prices.