Aluminum price fell on the 30th

According to the data of business agency, on August 30, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 18573.33 yuan / ton, down 2.11% on a daily basis, up 1.40% from the average market price of 18316.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (August 1), down 11.68% from the average market price of 20390 yuan / ton in the same period last year.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average price of aluminum ingot Market is 24240 yuan / ton, and the recent deviation from the peak value falls by 23.38%. Based on the starting point of recent recovery (July 14, 2022), the average price of aluminum ingot Market is 17450 yuan / ton, and the recent recovery increases by 6.44%.

Fundamentals overview

According to the news, the recent rainfall in Sichuan has increased the water storage capacity of the reservoir group. Although the actual recovery of hydropower generation remains to be seen, the pressure of power consumption in the early stage has been alleviated to a certain extent, and the impact of the overall high-temperature power restriction on the upstream and downstream of the aluminum industry chain is expected to weaken.

According to the delivery data, the delivery volume of the mainstream areas last week was about 150000 tons, slightly decreasing from the previous month, and the downstream demand was relatively weak.

On the macro level, due to the impact of inflation in Europe and the United States, the expectation of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank has been strengthened. These factors have led to the weakening of aluminum price support.

On the whole, the macro tightening has suppressed the aluminum price, but the reduction of aluminum supply and production and the relatively low inventory have supported the aluminum price. It is expected that the aluminum price will fluctuate widely in the short term. In the future, we will focus on downstream consumption and social inventory.

1、 Price data

As of August 28, the average ex factory price of domestic local refining hydrogenated naphtha was 8260.00 yuan / ton, up 1.85% from 8110.00 yuan / ton on August 22. The actual transaction price of local refining hydrogenated naphtha was about 8200-8300 yuan / ton.

As of August 28, the average ex factory price of domestic local refining straight run naphtha was 8087.50 yuan / ton, up 2.18% from 7915.00 yuan / ton on August 22. The actual transaction price of local refining straight run naphtha was about 8000-8100 yuan / ton.

On August 28, the naphtha commodity index was 101.94, which was the same as yesterday, down 16.20% from the highest point 121.64 (2022-03-10) in the cycle and up 141.34% from the lowest point 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of local refined naphtha increased, and the inventory of refineries was general. Affected by the high price of gasoline and diesel, the price continued to rise, but the demand for terminal ethylene cracking was general.

Upstream: international crude oil prices fluctuated and rose. According to the data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday, the stocks of crude oil and refined oil fell last week; At the same time, the market is still worried about the remarks made by the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) on the possibility of simultaneous production reduction after the return of Iranian oil to the market. The oil price is supported in the short term, and it is expected that the price of finished oil may rise in the later period.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, toluene rose this week. On August 28, the price was 7640 yuan / ton, and on August 22, the price was 7520 yuan / ton, up 1.60%. This week, the price of mixed xylene increased slightly. On August 28, the price was 7980 yuan / ton, and on August 22, the price was 7960 yuan / ton, up 0.25%. In the PX market, the market price trend of paraxylene was stable this week. By the end of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 9000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the energy analysts of business agency, the international crude oil price surged this week, the naphtha market cost was supported, the terminal ethylene cracking continued to suffer losses, the terminal demand was not significantly favorable, and the market was cautious to catch up. However, due to the high gasoline and diesel prices, the naphtha market price rose. It is expected that the local refined naphtha may rise slightly in the near future.

According to the data of business agency, the market price of trichloromethane has risen slightly in the past half month (August 12-august 26). As of August 26, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong remained at 2787 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 1.36% compared with 2750 yuan / ton in the middle of the month. After chloroform fell to the low level this year in July, the market of chloroform rebounded from the bottom. In addition, supported by the recent high cost and high temperature weather and refrigerant demand, businesses have strong willingness to support prices. However, restricted by the supply side, the upward range is limited.

In the past half a month (August 12-august 26), the commencement of domestic methane chloride has increased slightly compared with the previous period, and the overall operation is at a high level. There is still pressure on the supply side, which restricts the upward range of the trichloromethane market.

In the past half month, the spot price of methanol fluctuated higher, and the impact of cost was stronger. According to the business agency, as of August 26, the spot price of methanol was 2568 yuan / ton, up 4.42% from 2460 yuan / ton in the middle of the month.

Under the high temperature weather in the past half month, the after-sales demand of refrigerant is supported; However, with the gradual end of the high-temperature weather, the demand for refrigerant R22 will gradually fade, and the subsequent support for chloroform is expected to be insufficient.

Analysts of methane chloride data of business community believe that domestic supply side pressure is still in; In addition, with the arrival of the off-season of refrigerant, it is expected that in the later period, if the cost level is weak, the trichloromethane will fall steadily and slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate on August 19 was 1186 yuan / ton, and the average factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate on August 25 was 1220 yuan / ton. This week, the price of ammonium sulfate increased by 2.81%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of ammonium sulfate rose and the market recovered. The downstream purchase is mainly based on demand, and the on-site trading volume is increased, but there is still resistance to the high price ammonium sulfate. The number of export inquiries increased, and the number of new orders was limited. The bidding price of coking grade ammonium sulfate increased, and the price of domestic grade ammonium sulfate increased. As of August 25, the factory price of coking grade ammonium sulfate and the mainstream ammonium sulfate in Shandong is about 1190 yuan / ton. The mainstream factory price of ammonium sulfate in Hebei is about 1160 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of Hexi grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong Province is 1180-1280 yuan / ton.

The trading atmosphere of the downstream compound fertilizer market increased this week. The fluctuation of raw material price of compound fertilizer is reduced, the price of raw material urea rebounds and rises, and the cost support is good. The rise of urea market is favorable to the market of ammonium sulfate. Compound fertilizer manufacturers and dealers shall operate with caution and give priority to negotiation.

3、 Future forecast

According to the ammonium sulfate analyst of the business association, although the current ammonium sulfate Market has rebounded slightly, the demand side is still lack of power, and the favorable space is limited. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will rise slightly in the short term, and it is suggested to pay attention to the changes on the demand side.

Aluminum price bottoms out and rebounds

According to the data of business agency, on August 24, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 18833.33 yuan / ton, with a daily increase of 1.36%. Compared with the average market price of 18316.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (August 1), it increased by 2.82%, and decreased by 7.63% compared with the average market price of 20390 yuan / ton in the same period last year.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average price of aluminum ingot Market is 24240 yuan / ton, and the recent deviation from the peak value falls by 22.30%. Based on the starting point of recent recovery (July 14, 2022), the average price of aluminum ingot Market is 17450 yuan / ton, and the recent recovery has increased by 7.93%.

Fundamentals overview

1. Supply side:

Internationally, the recent energy crisis in Europe has intensified, and the second wave of impact caused by the surge in European electricity prices has been fierce. Alcoa said on Monday that its Mosjoen aluminum smelter in Norway has started a strike because industrial energy company and Norwegian industrial company failed to reach an agreement before the agreed deadline. Before the end of the strike, the products of Mosjoen aluminum smelter will be stopped. Mosjoen aluminum smelter has 5 production lines with an annual capacity of 200000 tons.

At home, the continuous shortage of power supply affects the supply of electrolytic aluminum. Due to the further upgrading of power limitation, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity of Sichuan Province was 1 million tons at the end of June. Affected by the shortage of electricity, the signal of reducing load and letting electricity to the people has been released since mid July, and the peak load has been shifted independently. Since August, the power supply situation has become more severe, and the production reduction scale of aluminum plants has expanded. As of today, all electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Sichuan Province has been shut down. In addition, due to lack of power in Chongqing, Henan and other provinces, local electrolytic aluminum enterprises have reduced production, and the scale of production reduction is likely to be further expanded. It is necessary to pay attention to the production situation in major electrolytic aluminum production areas such as Yunnan. At present, Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. said that the company has formed an electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 3.05 million tons. At present, the production and operation of the company are normal, and the power supply is not affected. Data according to the latest July supply data released by the International Aluminum Association (IAI), the global primary aluminum output in July 2022 was 5.848 million tons, compared with 5.73 million tons in the same period last year. In July, China’s primary aluminum output was 3.468 million tons.

2. Demand side:

Domestic aluminum downstream consumption continued to be weak, and the regional epidemic and high-temperature power limit interfered with the downstream construction, and the aluminum rod and aluminum profile plants in Sichuan were basically shut down.

3. Inventory data:

LME inventory continues to decline. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is relatively stable, at a historical low, and has accumulated a little in the near future. On August 23, the mainstream social inventory of aluminum ingots was 683000 tons, a total of 13000 tons compared with the monthly inventory at the end of July.

4. Influencing factors of policy:

The domestic LPR reduction combined with the relevant policies of real estate, the news is favorable for the construction aluminum, but the short-term impact on the downstream demand of aluminum is limited. The hawkish probability of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase in September has increased, the European economy has been hit hard by energy, and the manufacturing PMI index of Germany and France in August continues to be lower than the 50th percentile, which is not optimistic. Macro factors suppress international bulk prices.

Future market forecast

On the whole, overseas energy is still tight, Europe may face a more severe production reduction crisis, and some electrolytic aluminum production capacity is still expected to be reduced. On the domestic side, the recent precipitation in Yunnan has also been greatly reduced. In addition, there are frequent power restrictions in various places. There is some uncertainty in the domestic supply. The short-term aluminum price may be strong. In the future, we will pay attention to the downstream consumption and social inventory.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic polyester filament market has stopped falling recently (August 11-23). Among them, polyester DTY increased by 1.19%, polyester FDY and polyester POY increased by 0.58% and 0.47% respectively. At present, the price of polyester POY (150D / 48F) is 7750-8300 yuan / ton, the price of polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) is 9000-9550 yuan / ton, and the price of polyester FDY (150D / 96F) is 8400-8750 yuan / ton in the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang.

Under the influence of high temperature, the phenomenon of power and production limitation occurred frequently. Since the middle of August, most weaving and textile enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have received the notice of peak shift power limitation. The power on rate of polyester plants showed a downward trend with the issuance of the power limit policy. Most of the large plants maintained the state of production reduction, and the overall operating rate was around 77%.

Rise and fall of average price of polyester filament Market unit: yuan / ton

Commodities, August 11, August 23, up and down, year-on-year up and down

Polyester FDY., 8480%, 85300.58%, 10.14%

Polyester DTY, 9270, 9380, 1.19%, 4.00%

Polyester POY, 7961, 7998, 0.47%, 8.11%

In terms of cost, affected by the new progress of the Iran nuclear agreement and the worries about the future economic recession, the international crude oil futures price has been weakened recently. As of August 22, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $90.36/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $96.48/barrel.

However, today (August 23), PTA prices rose significantly, and the main futures rose 3.98% to 5588 yuan. PTA in the spot market rose, with the average market price of 6200 yuan / ton, up 2.24% over the previous trading day and 24.88% year-on-year. This is mainly due to the low operating load of the PTA industry as a whole and the impact of the temperature beginning to drop this week. The end textile industry is expected to relax the power restriction policy, so the end demand is expected to improve month on month. With the comprehensive boost, PTA prices rebounded.

From the perspective of the current demand terminal, textile and clothing consumption is still in the off-season, mainly maintaining the demand. Under the influence of high temperature and power limitation, the terminal weaving load was kept at a low level, and the comprehensive startup rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was reduced to below 48%. Orders are still insufficient, so we should be cautious about raw materials.

Business analysts believe that in terms of cost, the expected drop in demand will still drive the crude oil price downward, the PTA industry load will slightly increase to more than 71%, and the supply will also slowly recover. In the terminal textile industry, the textile enterprises have obvious intention to reduce inventory, and they hold a wait-and-see attitude towards raw material procurement, and it is difficult to significantly improve in the short term. In a comprehensive view, the weak situation of both the cost side and the supply and demand side still exists, and the polyester price will remain under pressure.

According to the data of business agency, the domestic maleic anhydride market price rebounded after falling this week. As of August 22, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 7320.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.55% over the price of 7280.00 yuan / ton on August 15, and a decrease of 6.63% over the same period of last month.

This week, the domestic benzoic maleic anhydride market was shut down. In the near future, the downstream unsaturated resin resin market started at a low level, and the demand was mainly rigid. As of December 22, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 7000 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu was about 7000 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was about 9500 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was about 8000 yuan / ton, and that in South China was about 7500 yuan / ton.

On the upstream side, the average price of pure benzene on August 12 was 8042 yuan / ton, and the average price of pure benzene on August 19 was 7542 yuan / ton, down 6.22% from last week. Pure benzene continued to fall, and downstream purchasing sentiment improved. However, most products are still at a loss. It is difficult to greatly increase the demand for pure benzene in the short term, and the market is waiting for the downstream to make up for the bargain. This week, the price of hydrogenated benzene in North China fell. On August 22, it was 7700.00 yuan / ton, and on August 15, it was 8150.00 yuan / ton, down 5.52%. In terms of n-butane, as of August 22, Shandong’s price was 5530 yuan / ton.

According to the maleic anhydride product analyst of business club, the benzene oxidation process in the domestic maleic anhydride market is in serious deficit at present, the factory has been shut down for maintenance, and the market circulation is less. The recent rise in the n-butane oxidation process is mainly due to the concentrated delivery of goods by downstream and merchants, and the supply of goods is relatively tight. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will rise in the near future.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8025.71 yuan / ton on August 14, and the average price was 7840.00 yuan / ton on August 19, with a decrease of 2.31% in the week and 9.71% compared with July 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) on August 14 was 9916.67 yuan / ton, and the average price on August 19 was 9783.33 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1.34% in the week and 10.52% compared with July 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 8650 yuan / ton on August 14, and 8516.67 yuan / ton on August 19, with a decrease of 1.54% in the week and 9.56% compared with July 1.

This week, the domestic polyethylene market continued to be weak, and the three spot varieties were significantly reduced, with a range of 50-300 yuan / ton. Among them, LLDPE fell most obviously, with the average price falling below 8000 yuan / ton, and LDPE and HDPE also decreased. During the week, the international crude oil market fell first and then rose. The decline was greater than the increase. The cost brought limited support to the market. The market supply is relatively sufficient, and some enterprises installed and started up in the week. The demand is still weak, with high temperature and power limitation in many places, and the increase of downstream orders is poor. The market is dominated by negative factors and the price is mainly downward.

On August 19, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2209 was 7656, the highest price was 7723, the lowest price was 7621, the closing price was 7691, the previous settlement price was 7667, the settlement price was 7669, up 24%, the trading volume was 134070, the position was 82227, and the daily increase was – 33856. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

Although the international crude oil market rebounded over the weekend, the support brought by the cost is still limited. The pressure on the overall supply of the polyethylene market is still too large, and the downstream demand is insufficient to follow up. The market is obviously negative and still weak. It is expected that there is still room for decline in the PE spot market in the short term.

441 # silicon price trend

In the past half month, the price of metal silicon has soared by about 4500 yuan / ton, an increase of 24.51% compared with the beginning of the month. As of August 18, according to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic 331 # metal silicon is 22400 yuan / ton.

The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Huangpu port is 22300-22500 yuan / ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Tianjin port is 22400-22500 yuan / ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Kunming is 22000-22200 yuan / ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Sichuan is 22000-22100 yuan / ton; Shanghai # 441 metal silicon price range is 23000-23100 yuan / ton.

The main reasons for the sharp rise in the price of metal silicon are the high-temperature power shortage in Sichuan and the disturbance of the epidemic in Xinjiang. Xinjiang and Sichuan are the largest and third largest production areas of metal silicon in China. The production capacity of the main production areas in Xinjiang accounts for about 35%, and that of Sichuan accounts for about 20%. The two major production areas reduce production and increase production, driving the price of metal silicon to rise strongly.

High temperature power shortage in Sichuan

Due to the insufficient precipitation caused by the high temperature weather, Sichuan Province recently issued an emergency notice to stop the production of industrial power users in the whole province for 6 days in order to ensure the power consumption of the people. At present, the metal silicon enterprises have reduced the production in a large area, and it is unknown whether they can resume production on time in the future. Due to the tight power supply, the electricity price in Sichuan has increased by 0.02-0.05 yuan / kWh, and it is estimated that the production cost of RMB 00 / kWh will also increase by 280-7 tons. This power restriction will directly lead to a straight-line increase in costs and a contraction in supply, which will enhance the willingness of enterprises to support prices.

Xinjiang epidemic disturbance

The control situation in Xinjiang is becoming stricter. At present, many factories in Yili are under static management. It is understood that 7 silicon furnaces have been directly shut down due to the impact of the epidemic. In addition, the most direct impact during the epidemic period is the increase in transportation costs. It is expected that the average transportation costs will rise by about 10-20%. The raw material inventory of some silicon plants is insufficient, which has a great impact on subsequent production.

Downstream quotations follow the rise

The market price of organosilicon DMC in the mainstream area of organosilicon DMC is reference to 19720 yuan / ton. The fundamental reason for the price rise is the rise of metal silicon market. In the short term, it will follow the price rise of metal silicon. However, the focus of market transaction is not high, and the enterprise’s production enthusiasm is general.

The mainstream price of aluminum alloy ADC12 is about 18900-19100 yuan / ton. Some aluminum alloy users with low metal silicon inventory have made up orders in succession and have strong purchase intention under the stimulation of high prices.

The mainstream price of polysilicon is 294333.34 yuan / ton, and the domestic polysilicon operating rate remains low. In August, there were two enterprises overhauling their devices. At present, the number of devices involved in overhauling has increased to 5, and one of them has partially resumed work; In addition, the expansion of production capacity and stable production have made up for most of the production losses caused by maintenance. The supply remains tight and it is difficult to support the increase in demand for metal silicon.

Future forecast

At present, the two major production areas of metal silicon in Xinjiang and Sichuan are subject to production restrictions to varying degrees, and many factors such as cost rise and output contraction are expected to further improve the price elasticity of metal silicon. However, considering that the downstream silicone and aluminum alloy enterprises generally maintain the state of just purchasing, the silicon price rises rapidly, and the fear of high in the downstream increases, it is expected that the short-term metal silicon price will maintain an upward trend, and then gradually slow down. In the future, attention should be paid to the power limitation in Sichuan.

Today, the domestic offer of bisphenol a pushed up. At present, the guiding price of some offer factories is 12500 yuan / ton. In view of the limited market circulation, the offer of the carrier is flat at 12500 yuan / ton.

On the one hand, the operating rate of the industry is declining. The 150000t / a BPA unit of Yanhua polycarbonate is shut down for maintenance. At present, the operating rate in the industry is around 70%. On the other hand, it is supported by phenol from the cost side. After the phenol factory increased by 200 yuan / ton yesterday, the market was high and firm today, and the gross profit of bisphenol A exceeded 1000 yuan / ton, which is still considerable. In addition, from the demand side, epoxy resin follows the upstream, and the downstream acceptance is acceptable. At present, part of the downstream BPA is a fixed contract, and some of the downstream BPA will remain in need of follow-up after a period of replenishment. The business community expects the short-term BPA consolidation and operation.

The offer of bisphenol A in the domestic mainstream market on the previous trading day:

Region, quotation, rise and fall

East China, 12450, 50

Shandong Province, 12500, 50