1、 Price trend

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6250 yuan / ton on July 8, and 6116 yuan / ton on July 14. The price of chlorinated paraffin 52 fell by 2.12% this week.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The price of chlorinated paraffin 52 fell this week. At present, the price of chlorinated paraffin raw materials continues to fall, and the cost support is insufficient. The market demand for chlorinated paraffin is poor, the transaction is weak, and the industry is mainly on the sidelines. Dominated by negative factors this week, chlorinated paraffin was mainly downward. As of July 14, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui was about 5800 yuan / ton, that in Northeast China was about 6300 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong was about 6050 yuan / ton.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

In terms of raw liquid wax, the price of liquid wax fell this week. Liquid wax follows the changes of crude oil market, and the trend is mainly downward. In terms of raw liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine fell this week. The transaction on the floor was sluggish, the demand performance was weak, and some liquid chlorine enterprises reduced their load.

 

3、 Aftermarket forecast

 

Analysts of business agency chlorinated paraffin believe that the current market demand for chlorinated paraffin is insufficient, and the trend of raw materials is poor. The supply of chlorinated paraffin is acceptable, and the bearish mood in the industry is strong. In the case of weak cost side and demand side, it is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will continue to decline in the short term.

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According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 13, 2022, the market price reference of organosilicon DMC in mainstream areas was 20880 yuan / ton, which was increased by 1200 yuan / ton or 6.10% compared with the price on July 3, 2022 (organosilicon DMC reference price of 19680 yuan / ton).

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that since the beginning of July, the domestic organosilicon DMC market has shown an overall upward trend. Entering this week, the organosilicon DMC market as a whole continued to move upward. On July 11, the quotation of organosilicon DMC from Shandong big factory was 20800 yuan / ton, up 600 yuan / ton from the previous week. The quotation of organosilicon DMC from the leading manufacturer was 21000 yuan / ton, which was increased by 500 yuan / ton compared with the previous week, and then the market as a whole remained stable and consolidated. As of July 13, the domestic market price of organosilicon DMC was around 20800-21000 yuan / ton, with an increase of 2.25% this week. At present, the downstream demand continues to be rigid, and the trading atmosphere on the floor is acceptable.

 

PVA 0588 ( PVA BP05)

In terms of upstream metal silicon, since July, the domestic metal silicon market has fallen first and then retreated. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the reference price of metal silicon was 18000 yuan / ton on July 12, up 0.5% compared with July 1 (17910 yuan / ton).

 

Aftermarket forecast of organosilicon DMC

 

Last week, the organosilicon DMC factory received orders well. This week, the supply pressure of the factory was small, and the downstream demand was cautious. The organosilicon DMC datagrapher of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic organosilicon DMC market is dominated by multi range consolidation and operation, and the specific trend also needs to pay more attention to the basic changes in supply and demand.

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This week, the domestic methanol market continued to fall. At present, the macro level is in a bad situation. At the same time, the breaking position of the futures market fell, and the market sentiment weakened, but the overall follow-up is not fast, and the decline is limited.

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

According to the monitoring data of business agency, from July 4 to 11, the average price of domestic methanol market fell from 2525 yuan / ton to 2397 yuan / ton, with the price falling by 5.05% during the cycle, the price falling by 14.98% month on month and 5.33% year-on-year.

 

As of the close on July 12, the focus of methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange continued to fall. Ma2209 contract opened at 2390 yuan / ton, with the highest price of 2402 yuan / ton and the lowest price of 2314 yuan / ton. It closed at 2324 yuan / ton, down 77 yuan / ton from the closing of the previous trading day. As of the closing, ma2209 contract holdings were 1185300 hands, down 60500 hands from the previous trading day.

 

As of July 12, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions:

 

Region, Price

Qinghai region, No quotation at present

Shanxi region, 2320-2370 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Liaoning region, 2680 yuan / ton to cash exchange

Fujian, 2400-2450 yuan / ton, cash exchange nearby

Two lakes region, Negotiation reference 2680-2720 yuan / ton to cash exchange

Anhui region, Transaction range refers to 2480-2550 yuan / ton factory acceptance

Henan Province, 2425 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

The price of products in the methanol industrial chain rose and fell, the price of natural gas, the upstream product of methanol, fell narrowly, the price of coal rose narrowly, and the cost of methanol was well supported; Among downstream products, Shandong methane chloride price fell the most; Among related products, the price of urea in Shandong fell the most.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

In terms of external market, as of the closing on July 11, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was closed. The closing price of Gulf methanol market in the United States is 95.50-96.00 cents / gallon; The closing quotation of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 348.50-349.00 euros / ton.

 

region ., country., Closing price, Up and down

Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, 364.00-365.00 USD / ton, 0 USD / ton

Europe and America, The Gulf of the United States, 95.50-96.00 cents / gallon, 0 cents / gallon

Europe, FOB Rotterdam, 348.50-349.00 euros / ton ., 0 euro / ton

Methanol production costs are supported. The short-term methanol supply is expected to increase and the demand is weakened. Methanol analysts at business club predict that in the short term, the domestic methanol market may still decline at a low level.

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Commodity prices: according to the data monitoring of business agency, the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the domestic market in early July was slightly reduced from 15900 yuan / ton to 15828.57 yuan / ton. The manufacturer’s production is normal and the market inventory is sufficient; The downstream demand is general, the enterprise has great shipping pressure, and the transaction is not easy.

 

PVA 0599 (PVA BF05)

Industrial chain: upstream raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of business agency, the domestic mainstream market fell from about 10860 yuan / ton to 10700 yuan / ton in early July, a decrease of 1.47%; Under the premise of supporting the bottom of the cost, the market supply is loose, the downstream rigid demand is dominated, and the price focus of propylene is still on the downward trend in the atmosphere of buying up but not buying down. The market is in a stalemate due to the long short game.

 

Raw material acrylic acid: the quotation in East China has been significantly reduced by 11.24% this ten days. The mainstream production price in East China on the 1st was 13933.33 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price on the 10th was 12366.67 yuan / ton. Recently, the raw material propylene market has been consolidated at a low level, with limited cost support. Some enterprises have stopped for maintenance, the operating rate of acrylic acid has declined, overseas demand has weakened slightly, and the domestic downstream has followed up on demand. The demand side is light, and the acrylic acid market is weak.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic LNG price fell after a slight rise in early July, and the focus shifted downward. Among them, the mainstream quotation on the 1st was 5860 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation on the 10th was 5786 yuan / ton, with a decrease of about 1.3%. The LNG market was weak, and the terminal demand was sluggish. Manufacturers mostly cut prices, and the market is bearish. It is expected that LNG will continue to decline in the short term.

 

Future forecast: the cost of raw materials has generally decreased in this ten day period, some of which have a large decline. The spot inventory in the market is sufficient, and the transaction is general. It is expected that the polyacrylamide market in the future will be stable, moderate and downward.

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1、 Price trend

 

Toluene fell continuously this week, according to the data on the bulk list of business society. On July 1, the price was 8900 yuan / ton, and on Friday (July 8), the price was 8640 yuan / ton, down 2.92% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 47.19%.

 

PVA 0588 ( PVA BP05)

2、 Analysis and comment

 

Due to the decline of toluene export arbitrage enthusiasm and weak domestic demand, toluene Market negotiation is general and inventory accumulation. During the week, crude oil plummeted, driving the collective decline of bulk commodities. Toluene in the outer market followed a wide range of decline, which was lack of good news, and toluene was under pressure.

 

In terms of external trading, toluene in Asia fell broadly this week. On Thursday (July 7), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was $1104 / ton, a year-on-year decrease of $106 / ton, or 8.76%.

 

In terms of crude oil, the market’s concern about the global economic recession increased, leading to a sharp fall in international oil prices, and WTI oil prices fell below $100 a barrel. However, the inventory of refined oil products in the United States fell, and the increase in demand led to a rebound in oil prices. As of July 8, Brent’s price fell by $4.61 per barrel, or 4.13%, this week compared with last week; WTI fell $3.64 / barrel, or 3.36%.

 

Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China fell narrowly this week. The price was 17625 yuan / ton on July 1 and 17475 yuan / ton on July 8, down 0.85% from last week and up 26.02% from the same period last year. At present, the spot stock of the factory is tight, the mentality of supporting the market is dominant, the downstream demand continues to be light, and some just need to purchase and follow up, so the enthusiasm to enter the market is not good.

 

In the PX market, the domestic PX price was stable this week. On Friday (July 8), the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 10000 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and increased by 40.85% compared with the same period last year. As of July 7, the closing price in Asia was $1162 / ton FOB South Korea and $1180 / ton CFR China.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline in Shandong fell violently this week. The price was 9092 yuan / ton on July 1 and 9015 yuan / ton on July 8, down 0.85% from last week and up 13.01% from the same period last year.

 

3、 Aftermarket forecast

 

In terms of crude oil, the long short game of crude oil is full of uncertainty. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.

 

The trend of crude oil is full of uncertainty, and toluene in the outer market is still likely to fall; Domestic downstream demand for high priced toluene is poor, and the market follows up cautiously, and toluene is still likely to fall. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics and downstream demand on prices.

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1、 Price trend

 

PVA 2088 (PVA BP20)

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6250 yuan / ton on July 1, and the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6250 yuan / ton on July 7. The price of chlorinated paraffin 52 was stable this week.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The price of chlorinated paraffin 52 was stable this week. At present, the domestic market of chlorinated paraffin is weak, the operating rate of enterprises rises, and the supply of chlorinated paraffin increases. Raw material prices fell this week, and cost support weakened. The downstream demand is sluggish, mainly low-cost procurement, and the on-site transaction is poor. As of July 7, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui was about 6200 yuan / ton, that in Northeast China was about 6500 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong was about 6050 yuan / ton.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

In terms of raw liquid wax, the price of liquid wax fell this week. Liquid wax follows the changes of crude oil market, and the trend is mainly downward. In terms of raw liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine fell by a wide margin this week. The market on the floor was poor, and the transactions were few, and some liquid chlorine enterprises reduced their loads.

 

3、 Aftermarket forecast

 

Chlorinated paraffin analysts at business news agency believed that the price of chlorinated paraffin raw materials fell and the cost side support was insufficient. At present, chlorinated paraffin is at a low price, waiting for the release of terminal demand. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will be stable in the short term.

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At the beginning of July, the domestic dimethyl ether market remained weak as a whole, and the price did not fluctuate significantly. The market trend in Henan was stable, and the price remained around 3800 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 3850 yuan / ton on July 1 and 3850.00 yuan / ton on July 6. The price remained unchanged during the period, up 14.41% from the same period last year.

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

As of July 6, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

Region, Mainstream quotation

Jiangxi region, 3970 yuan / ton

Hebei region, 3800 yuan / ton

Henan Province, 3790-3830 yuan / ton

At the beginning of July, the domestic dimethyl ether market remained weak as a whole, while the Henan market remained stable without fluctuations. At present, the raw material methanol market is sluggish, and the cost has brought some bad news to the market. Although the civil market of liquefied gas, a related product, has increased, the range is not obvious, and the support brought to the market is limited. The current traditional off-season is not over, and the terminal demand is still weak. The manufacturer’s inventory is temporarily controllable, the mentality is general, and the disk is stable.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

This week, the domestic methanol market was depressed and sorted out, and the mainland transactions were heavy again, while the coastal market performed generally. Under the background of stable cost support, replenishment demand and mainland rigid demand, the volume of transactions in the main production areas is large; The terminal receiving price is subject to high inventory and general price performance.

 

On the whole, the current raw material methanol market is depressed, and the cost side has brought insufficient support to the market. The civil price of liquefied gas, a related product, remained stable on a large scale, bringing limited support to the dimethyl ether Market. The downstream market is generally enthusiastic, the market trading atmosphere is limited, and the market lacks favorable guidance. It is expected that the price of dimethyl ether market will remain weak in the short term.

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According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 5, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate is 6566 yuan / ton, which is 733 yuan / ton higher than the price on June 30, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate is 5833 yuan / ton), or 12.57%.

 

PVA 0588 ( PVA BP05)

From the business data monitoring chart, it can be seen that at the end of June, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market operated upward in a narrow range, and the trading atmosphere on the floor was acceptable. In July, the overall market situation of dimethyl carbonate continued to rise. The inventory of dimethyl carbonate in the field was low and the supply was tight. The supply side gave support to the market of dimethyl carbonate. On the 4th and 5th, the quoted prices of some dimethyl carbonate factories were increased by a wide range of 500-800 yuan / ton, and some factories in Shandong were closed. As of July 5, the domestic ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate was 6400-6700 yuan / ton, with an increase of 9.4% in two days and more than 14% in ten days. At present, the supply side of dimethyl carbonate is still tight, and the market is high and strong.

 

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, in June, the domestic propylene oxide market generally operated downward. Entering July, the propylene oxide market continued to decline. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 5, the reference price of propylene oxide was 10433.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.63% compared with July 1 (10500 yuan / ton).

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

Future trend analysis

 

At present, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate on the floor is mild, the supply side supports the market, and the downstream demand is just in demand. The dimethyl carbonate analyst of business society believes that in the short term, the market of dimethyl carbonate will mainly be consolidated and operated, and more attention should be paid to the basic changes in supply and demand.

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Price trend:

 

PVA 0599 (PVA BF05)

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic ABS market fell in the previous week, and the spot prices of various brands gradually decreased. As of July 4, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offer was about 13000 yuan / ton, up or down -1.52% compared with the price level at the beginning of the week.

 

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the market price of styrene stopped falling and rebounded last week. Although the macro performance of styrene was weak before, the superposition of international crude oil fluctuations had a negative impact on styrene. However, last week, the port inventory was digested, the operating rate of the industry decreased, and the overall market situation warmed up. At present, the price of direct upstream pure benzene is stable and bottoms out at the cost end of styrene. It is expected that the market of styrene may be in a stalemate in the short term, mainly with narrow adjustment.

 

The price of acrylonitrile was mainly deadlocked last week, the load of domestic acrylonitrile enterprises was still high, and the pressure on acrylonitrile supply remained. Demand tends to be lagging and weak, and there is a contradiction between supply and demand in the market. However, the current acrylonitrile price is at a low level, and there is limited room for market price decline under cost pressure. Although the contradiction between supply and demand in the short term is difficult to change, it is expected that the acrylonitrile price may continue to run sideways at a low level in the later period.

 

Last week, the domestic butadiene market fell broadly. Affected by the increase in export sales of northeast sources and the news of the restart of devices in Shandong, the market expectation was short, the transaction was not smooth, dragging the supplier’s price downward, and the market fell. At the same time, the performance of downstream products is weak, high price transactions are rare, and the market trading volume has returned to a depressed state. Most downstream products are cautious.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

Last week, the upstream three materials of ABS cost side showed a poor trend. Previously, the price fluctuation of international crude oil was intensified due to the impact of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, which was bad for the oil and chemical industry chain, and the cost support of ABS both far and near weakened. In terms of industry load, the current operating rate of ABS enterprises has limited changes, which is generally at a high level and has limited support for the supply side. The current season is in the off-season of the industry, and the pattern of weak market demand is gradually unfolding. Merchants give up profits and lower the focus of ABS offer.

 

Future forecast:

 

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS fell last week, and the overall trend of the three upstream materials was poor, weakening the cost side support of ABS. Domestic spot supply is abundant, and demand follow-up is poor. It is expected that the ABS spot market may fall in a narrow range in the short term.

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According to the sample data monitored by the business club, from June 24 to July 1, the domestic ethanol market was dominated by the downturn. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic ethanol producers remained at 7500 yuan / ton. At the weekend, the price fell to 4750 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.67% during the week, a month on month decrease of 0.67%, and the price increased by 7.19% year-on-year.

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

The domestic ethanol market is mainly volatile. Some time ago, large factories in some regions broke down, reduced production and stopped to add new devices. The supply has decreased, which has formed a certain support for the price and increased slightly. The price of raw corn fell, the market price was affected and weakened slightly, and the downstream demand was average, so it was gradually sorted out and operated.

 

In terms of raw materials, the price of corn fluctuated, and the short-term weakness fluctuated downward. The supply of molasses is in the inventory digestion period, and the price continues to remain high.

 

Comparison chart of corn (upstream raw material) – ethanol price trend of shanghaishe:

 

In terms of downstream products, the high temperature period in summer is the off-season of downstream Baijiu, and the price of ethanol is not dominant at this stage, which basically maintains the rigid demand for procurement; In terms of chemical industry, ethyl acetate has no device change next week, and the devices of major manufacturers in Shandong operate normally, and the short-term demand is stable.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

Comparison chart of price trend of ethanol ethyl acetate (downstream products) of Business Club:

 

As of July 1, the latest price dynamics of ethanol market in various regions:

 

Region, Category, Price

Guangxi, Honey alcohol, 8250-8300 yuan / ton

Guangxi, Corn / Cassava 95% alcohol, 7650-7800 yuan / ton, self withdrawal

Guangxi, Anhydrous ethanol, 8350-8400 yuan / ton self delivery

Guangdong, Corn alcohol, 7870-7900 yuan / ton

Guangdong, Rice / Cassava general ethanol, 7600-7700 yuan / ton Dongguan self delivery

Guangdong, Anhydrous cassava ethanol, 8450-8550 yuan / ton Dongguan self delivery

Sichuan region, Corn alcohol ., 8000 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Yunnan, Molasses alcohol, 8200-8250 yuan / ton

Henan Province, Superior grade ., 7350 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Henan Province, Anhydrous ethanol, 8100-8150 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Hebei region, General, 7350-7400 yuan / ton, including tax

Shandong region, Common wheat, 7250-7300 yuan / ton

Shandong region, Corn superior, 7800-7900 yuan / ton

Shandong region, Corn has no water, 8150-8200 yuan / ton

Southern Jiangsu, General, 7450-7500 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu, General, 7250-7300 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu, Superior, 7400 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu, No water, 8100-8200 yuan / ton

Anhui region, General, 7250-7350 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Anhui region, No water, 8200 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Jinzhou District, Liaoning Province, Corn alcohol is of general grade, 7350-7400 yuan / ton

Heilongjiang Region ., General, 6850-7000 yuan / ton, tax included

Heilongjiang Region ., Anhydrous ethanol, 7900-8000 yuan / ton

Jilin region, Ordinary alcohol, 7050-7250 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Jilin region, Premium alcohol, 7150-7200 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Jilin region, Anhydrous ethanol, 7750-8200 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

The market of raw corn has weakened, and the current downstream demand is relatively light. The demand for Baijiu has entered the off-season. Ethyl acetate has a device to start, which may drive the demand in a narrow range. The ethanol analyst of the business society predicts that the domestic ethanol market will be mainly sorted out in the short term.

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