1、 Price trend
Business agency: the price of maleic anhydride fluctuated downward in May
According to the data of business agency, as of May 31, the average offer price of maleic anhydride was 10300.00 yuan / ton (including tax), down 10.43% from 11500.00 yuan / ton on May 1.
On May 31, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 97.03, up 0.31 points from yesterday, down 41.70% from the highest point of 166.43 points in the cycle (December 15, 2021), and up 89.59% from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
In May, the domestic benzene maleic anhydride market started to decline. Recently, the downstream unsaturated resin market started to rise slightly, mainly due to rigid demand. As of the 29th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 9000 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu was about 9500 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was about 9500 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was about 9500 yuan / ton, and that in South China was about 9500 yuan / ton.
In May, the international crude oil rose violently, the EU oil ban on sanctions against Russia was delayed, and the expectation of tight supply remained unchanged. With the arrival of summer driving season in the United States, demand is expected to improve, and supply and demand fundamentals are still good for oil prices. OPEC will adhere to the oil production agreement reached last year at the meeting on June 2, increasing the daily output by 432000 barrels in July, rejecting the Western call for faster production increase to reduce soaring oil prices. As the epidemic situation in Asia gradually eases, demand expectations tend to improve. However, the economic recession, the tightening of monetary policy and the spread of monkeypox virus have increased the uncertainty of oil demand prospects, which has led to pressure on oil prices to a certain extent.
At present, the inventory of pure benzene in East China has declined significantly, and the overall support of the market is strong. However, due to the poor downstream demand, the price in Shandong still has a certain price difference with East China, and the actual transaction is weak. At present, the mainstream price of pure benzene in China is 9000-9350 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrogenated benzene fluctuates with that of pure benzene. At present, the market price of hydrogenated benzene in East China is about 9000-9100 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, affected by the loss of downstream commodity profits, some units were shut down to limit production, the overall demand in the plant slowed down, and the price of hydrogenated benzene fell slightly by about 100 yuan / ton, but the overall operation remained high.
3、 Aftermarket forecast
According to the maleic anhydride product analyst of the business club, the domestic maleic anhydride market is rising slightly at present, and the downstream resin manufacturers’ market is sorted out, and they just need to purchase. The price of raw materials is high, the benzene process has a significant loss, the supply has declined, and the downstream terminal has no obvious benefit. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will be mainly consolidated in the near future.