Last week (June 6-12), the price of viscose staple fiber continued to rise due to the rising price of dissolved pulp and better export. The prices of some factories increased by 200-500 yuan / ton. The quotation of 1.2d*38mm manufacturers was about 15600, and the supply remained balanced. The cotton yarn price of downstream people rose slightly, and the transaction atmosphere improved, but the trading volume was limited, the shipment was average, the downstream orders were limited, and the yarn inventory was still large.

Trend chart of viscose staple fiber price

According to the price monitoring of the business club, as of June 12, 2022, the domestic ex factory quotation of 1.2d*38mm viscose staple fiber was 15640 yuan / ton, which was 140 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of last week (June 6), a weekly increase of 0.90%. The price of cotton yarn rose slightly (30s, ring spinning, first-class products), and the average ex factory price was 19166 yuan / ton, up 66 yuan / ton compared with the price at the beginning of last week (June 6), a weekly increase of 0.35%.

From the analysis of the reasons, the cost is well supported, the market price of raw material dissolving pulp is high, and the production cost of viscose staple fiber remains at a high level as a whole. At the beginning, the export of viscose staple fiber was good. Because the export price was higher than the domestic price, and the economic benefits were good, some enterprises had higher enthusiasm for export. The supply of viscose staple fiber has maintained a tight balance. Recently, the inventory has declined rapidly, and the manufacturer is cautious. Last week (June 6-12), the spot prices of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp were on the rise as a whole. On June 12, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong was 7202 yuan / ton, up 0.31% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on June 5, the average market price of softwood pulp was 7180 yuan / ton). On June 12, the average market price of broad-leaved wood pulp in Shandong was 6700 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.45% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (the average market price of broad-leaved wood pulp on June 5 was 6670 yuan / ton).

Downstream cotton yarn Market

Trend chart of cotton yarn price

Last week (June 6-12), the price of human cotton yarn rose slightly, and the negotiation atmosphere improved. Some customers made positive inquiries. At the same time, human cotton yarn factories also began to actively put forward factory prices. However, the trading volume is limited, the shipment is general, the downstream orders are limited, and the yarn inventory is still large. As of June 12, 2022, the average ex factory price of cotton yarn (30s, ring spinning, first-class products) was 19166 yuan / ton, up 66 yuan / ton compared with the price at the beginning of last week (June 6), a weekly increase of 0.35%.

Aftermarket forecast

Recently, foreign dissolving pulp devices have changed greatly, but the supply is still tight, the cost is pushed up, and it is difficult for viscose staple fiber factories to make concessions. However, the demand for textile terminals continues to be flat, and the trading has always been average. The analysts of the business community predict that the price of viscose staple fiber will run at a high level.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of June 14, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 9833 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that on June 10. Compared with the price on June 1 (the average reference price of n-butanol was 9933 yuan / ton), the price was increased by 130 yuan / ton, or 1.34%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business club that in the first week after the Dragon Boat Festival, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong was running down at a high level. On June 10 last weekend, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong was around 9833 yuan / ton. In this week, the overall n-butanol market in Shandong was mainly stable and operated. The overall inventory in the n-butanol field was low. The factory’s offer was stable and firm. The downstream just needed replenishment and stock up. The market news was calm. As of June 14, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong was around 9800-9900 yuan / ton, that in East China was around 10100-10300 yuan / ton, and that in South China was around 10300-10400 yuan / ton. At present, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol field is mild, and the supply-demand transmission is acceptable.

In terms of upstream propylene, in May, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market first rose and then fell, and the overall market fell. At the beginning of the month, the market was 8414 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 8070 yuan / ton, a monthly decline of 4.09%. In June, the overall propylene market in Shandong continued to move down slightly. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, on June 7, the reference price of propylene was 8070.60 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.12% compared with that on June 1 (8080.60 yuan / ton).

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

At present, the overall operating rate of the n-butanol plant is low, the mentality of the operators is acceptable, and the downstream demand after the festival is generally boosted. The n-butanol datagrapher of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong will be mainly adjusted and operated in a stable range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand.

1、 Price data

As of June 12, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8935.75 yuan / ton, up 4.96% from 8513.25 yuan / ton on June 6. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 8900-9000 yuan / ton.

As of June 12, the average ex factory price of domestic locally refined straight run naphtha was 8763.33 yuan / ton, up 4.61% from 8377.50 yuan / ton on June 6. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight run naphtha was about 8600-8800 yuan / ton.

On June 12, the naphtha commodity index was 110.28, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.34% from the highest point 121.64 in the cycle (March 10, 2022), and up 161.08% from the lowest point 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of refined naphtha continued to rise, and refineries actively pushed it up. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the terminal just needed replenishment, and the market transaction was positive.

Upstream: as the international crude oil price rises, the EU’s oil ban on sanctions against Russia has been delayed, and the expectation of tight supply remains unchanged. With the arrival of summer driving season in the United States, demand is expected to improve, and supply and demand fundamentals are still good for oil prices. At present, it is in the peak season of traditional consumption of crude oil, and it is also a season of high incidence of extreme weather such as hurricanes. Crude oil has a great tendency to hit a new high again, and the rise of international oil prices is unabated.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business agency, toluene rose strongly this week, with a one-day increase of more than 5%. On June 2, the price was 8160 yuan / ton, and on June 10, the price was 9230 yuan / ton, an increase of 13.11% over last week. Mixed xylene rose continuously this week, with an increase of more than 10% within the week. On June 2, the price was 8220 yuan / ton; On June 10, the price was 9180 yuan / ton, up 11.68% from last week. In the PX market, the market price of paraxylene rose this week. As of the end of the week, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 10600 yuan / ton, up 3.92% from the price of 10200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 63.08% year-on-year.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the energy analysts of business agency, the price of international crude oil is rising, the cost of naphtha market is supported, the terminal just needs replenishment after the Dragon Boat Festival, the refinery is actively pushing up, the profit of reforming unit is good, and the price of gasoline is rising continuously, but the terminal demand is not significantly good. It is expected that the recent refining of naphtha will be dominated by consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, mixed xylene rose continuously this week, with an increase of more than 10% within the week. On June 2, the price was 8220 yuan / ton; On Friday (June 10), the price was 9180 yuan / ton, up 11.68% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 56.39%.

2、 Analysis and comment

The recent strong trend of crude oil has given positive support to related bulk commodities. In addition, with the arrival of the peak gasoline demand season in the United States, a large number of toluene and xylene are required to invest in gasoline components to reduce the consumption of disproportionation devices. The price of American gold plate is rising, and the mixed xylene in Asia is actively rising. Although the export arbitrage of domestic mixed xylene is limited, the external news support is strong, and the domestic speculation enthusiasm is high. At the same time, the domestic PX demand support and the gasoline market improved, and the price of mixed xylene rose.

In the external market, the mixed xylene in Asia in the external market rose by more than 15% this week. On Thursday (June 9), the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was USD 1496 / ton, with a year-on-year increase of USD 209 / ton, or 16.24%; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was USD 1446 / T, with a year-on-year increase of USD 192 / T, or 15.31%.

In terms of crude oil, due to the arrival of the peak driving season in the United States, driving demand growth, as well as the tightening of supply expectations under the background of Western sanctions against Russia, this week’s rise was dominated. As of June 10, Brent rose $2.29 per barrel, or 1.91%; WTI rose $1.8/barrel, or 1.51%.

Downstream, in the PX market, domestic PX rose this week. On Friday (June 10), the ex factory price of domestic paraxylene was 10600 yuan / ton, up 3.92% from last week and 63.08% from the same period last year. On June 9, the closing price of paraxylene market in Asia was USD 1481 / T FOB Korea and USD 1499 / T CFR China.

In terms of ox market, the price of ox in East China was stable this week. On Friday (June 10), the price of ox in East China was 8800 yuan / ton, flat compared with last week, up 41.94% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline in Shandong rose continuously this week. On June 2, the price was 8980 yuan / ton, and on June 10, the price was 9485.2 yuan / ton, up 5.63% from last week and 22.45% from the same period last year.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In terms of crude oil, the short-term oil price is still running at a high point, with little change in supply and demand fundamentals. Supply tightening expectations and demand growth support oil prices. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions, etc. on crude oil prices.

At present, the external news support is strong, the downstream market is good, and the short-term trend of mixed xylene is strong. However, near the weekend, the price of mixed xylene in the external market fell, the domestic market fell slightly, and the mentality of bearish operators continued to rise slightly. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline, the impact of mixed xylene and downstream device dynamics, port inventory, external market, etc. on mixed xylene prices.

Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, the domestic POM market was strong in early June, and the spot prices of some brands increased to some extent. As of June 9, the ex factory price reference offer of POM injection molding sample enterprises of business club was about 21400 yuan / ton, an increase or decrease of +0.47% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream formaldehyde, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong rose this week. Although the downstream demand is low, it maintains the just needed procurement, and the market transaction is light. However, the market of raw material methanol is rising, and formaldehyde is tentatively rising. It is expected that the price of formaldehyde will mainly rise in shock.

The upstream formaldehyde market rose, and POM cost side support was stable. In terms of industry load, some POM enterprises had maintenance at the end of May. Some enterprises have maintenance plans next week, and the on-site supply is acceptable. The operating rate of terminal enterprises has gradually entered the off-season mode. Generally, due to profit or order problems, the operating rate has gradually narrowed. The purchase operation is cautious and mainly based on small orders. The operation is biased towards bargain hunting to maintain production. Before the off-season, the on-site inventory was still at risk of rising. The mentality of the merchants was general. The offer followed the rise of the petrochemical plant, but the shipment was general.

Aftermarket forecast

Analysts of the business agency believe that the domestic POM market rose this week, the upstream formaldehyde market was strong, and the POM cost support was acceptable. POM industry load fluctuates in a narrow range and is expected to rise next week. The consumption of downstream enterprises is weak, and there is no large-scale replenishment in procurement. It is expected that in the short term, POM prices may be dominated by stalemate.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of June 8, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 10066 yuan / ton, which was 130 yuan / ton higher than that on June 1 (the average reference price of n-butanol was 9933 yuan / ton), or 1.34%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that after the Dragon Boat Festival in June, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong first rose and then fell, and the price trend rose and fell. Before the festival, n-butanol performed well in de stocking. After the festival, the on-site inventory was generally on the low side. On the 6th and 7th, the prices of n-butanol factories were generally adjusted upward, with an adjustment range of 100-300 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of n-butanol was around 10000-10200 yuan / ton. The downstream multi-dimensional enterprises mainly needed to purchase. After the price of n-butanol was increased, the new orders of some factories were less than expected. Under the influence of the slow transmission of high prices, on the 8th, Some n-butanol plants have reduced the ex factory price of n-butanol by about 200 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of n-butanol is about 9900-10200 yuan / ton. At present, the transaction in the n-butanol plant is relatively stable, the downstream construction is generally started, and the demand for replenishment is mainly on demand.

In terms of upstream propylene, in May, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market first rose and then fell, and the overall market fell. At the beginning of the month, the market was 8414 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 8070 yuan / ton, a monthly decline of 4.09%. In June, the overall propylene market in Shandong continued to move down slightly. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, on June 7, the reference price of propylene was 8070.60 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.12% compared with that on June 1 (8080.60 yuan / ton).

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

At present, the overall operating rate of the n-butanol plant is low, the mentality of the operators is acceptable, and the downstream demand after the festival is generally boosted. The n-butanol datagrapher of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong will be mainly adjusted and operated in a stable range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand.

At the beginning of June, the domestic propane market price was mainly adjusted in a narrow range, while the market price in Shandong was first low and then high, with the increase greater than the decrease. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 6445.75 yuan / ton on June 1, and 6468.25 yuan / ton on June 7. During this period, the increase rate was 0.35%, an increase of 51.81% compared with the same period last year.

As of June 7, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region, June 7th

South China, 61000-6200 yuan / ton

North China, 6400-6500 yuan / ton

Shandong region, 6400-6520 yuan / ton

Northeast China, 6400-6600 yuan / ton

In June, the domestic propane market trend was relatively strong, and the price was adjusted in a narrow range. The price of propane in Shandong market fell before the Dragon Boat Festival, and rose after the festival. The overall focus moved up, but the fluctuation range was limited. At the end of the month, with the introduction of CP prices in June, both propane and butane fell sharply, bringing some bad news to the domestic market. The propane market price was mainly weak. After the festival, the high international crude oil price brought obvious support to the market. In addition, the manufacturer’s inventory was temporarily controllable, the mentality was relatively firm, and the price rose slightly. However, due to the influence of off-season factors, the terminal demand is limited, which brings obvious restraint to the market.

Saudi Aramco announced in June 2022 that both propylene and butane fell. Propane was 750 dollars / ton, down 100 dollars / ton compared with the previous month; Butane is 750 dollars / ton, down 110 dollars / ton compared with the previous month.

At present, the international crude oil price is high, and the cost has brought obvious support to the propane Market. There is little pressure on the supply side of Shandong market, but the demand side is weak, the downstream market entry enthusiasm is limited, and the market trading atmosphere is weak. It is expected that the propane market price will continue to consolidate sideways in the short term.

1、 Price summary of mixed xylene on June 2:

Qingdao Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 8050 yuan / ton, and Shijiazhuang Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 7850 yuan / ton,

Jiujiang Petrochemical offers 8250 yuan / ton, and Yangba offers 8100 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical offers 8350 yuan / ton, Maoming Petrochemical offers 8300 yuan / ton,

Changling Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 8350 yuan / ton,

Xinhai Petrochemical offers 8500 yuan / ton.

2、 Fluctuation trend:

3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, the market believes that the impact of the OPEC production increase plan on the tight supply situation is limited. With the arrival of the peak demand for fuel oil in Europe and the United States and the relaxation of restrictions in China, the global supply is tightened and the expectation of demand growth is continuously strengthened, and the international oil price continues to rise.

Today, Sinopec East China mixed xylene increased by 450 yuan / ton, and Xinhai Petrochemical mixed xylene increased by 150 yuan / ton.

Crude oil and external market rose, external news supported strongly, and mixed xylene rose positively.

According to the bulk commodity list data of the business agency, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1293.33 yuan / ton. At the end of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1270.00 yuan / ton, down 1.80%. The current price fell by 12.26% month on month, and the current price fell by 3.97% year on year.

formaldehyde

The market price of formaldehyde in Shandong fell this week. It can be seen from the above figure that formaldehyde has mainly fallen in the past more than a month, and the market continued to fluctuate and fall this week. As of June 2, the mainstream market price in Shandong is 1250-1300 yuan / ton. Recently, due to domestic public health incidents, the downstream demand has not improved continuously, the manufacturers in Linyi have difficulty in shipping, the market transaction is light, and the market has been declining.

Summary of formaldehyde market prices in various regions as of June 2:

Region, Price

East China, 1310 yuan / ton

Central China, 1170 yuan / ton

South China, 1390 yuan / ton

Northwest China, 1300 yuan / ton

Upstream methanol: this week, the domestic methanol market was sorted out and watched. In terms of spot goods, the international oil price continued to rise, the coal price was firm, and the fundamentals were not significantly driven. The number of orders signed by factories in the main production areas in Northwest China has decreased, the bidding price of Lubei refinery has declined slightly, the supply side is relatively abundant, and the demand side has not changed significantly. The short-term domestic methanol market is mainly sorted out.

This week, the methanol market fluctuated and fell, the cost support was average, the operation of the downstream plate plant did not improve, the demand for formaldehyde in the field was limited, the market transaction was cold, the inventory kept rising, and the formaldehyde manufacturers had difficulties in shipping. In order to ship, they took the initiative to reduce the quotation, and the formaldehyde market continued to fall.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has been in a weak consolidation, and the demand of downstream wood panel plants is weak. Under the dual pressure, the formaldehyde analysts of the chemical branch of the business community predict that the recent decline in the price of formaldehyde in Shandong is mainly below.

According to the bulk commodity list data of the business agency, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1293.33 yuan / ton. At the end of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1270.00 yuan / ton, down 1.80%. The current price fell by 12.26% month on month, and the current price fell by 3.97% year on year.

formaldehyde

The market price of formaldehyde in Shandong fell this week. It can be seen from the above figure that formaldehyde has mainly fallen in the past more than a month, and the market continued to fluctuate and fall this week. As of June 2, the mainstream market price in Shandong is 1250-1300 yuan / ton. Recently, due to domestic public health incidents, the downstream demand has not improved continuously, the manufacturers in Linyi have difficulty in shipping, the market transaction is light, and the market has been declining.

Summary of formaldehyde market prices in various regions as of June 2:

Region, Price

East China, 1310 yuan / ton

Central China, 1170 yuan / ton

South China, 1390 yuan / ton

Northwest China, 1300 yuan / ton

Upstream methanol: this week, the domestic methanol market was sorted out and watched. In terms of spot goods, the international oil price continued to rise, the coal price was firm, and the fundamentals were not significantly driven. The number of orders signed by factories in the main production areas in Northwest China has decreased, the bidding price of Lubei refinery has declined slightly, the supply side is relatively abundant, and the demand side has not changed significantly. The short-term domestic methanol market is mainly sorted out.

This week, the methanol market fluctuated and fell, the cost support was average, the operation of the downstream plate plant did not improve, the demand for formaldehyde in the field was limited, the market transaction was cold, the inventory kept rising, and the formaldehyde manufacturers had difficulties in shipping. In order to ship, they took the initiative to reduce the quotation, and the formaldehyde market continued to fall.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has been in a weak consolidation, and the demand of downstream wood panel plants is weak. Under the dual pressure, the formaldehyde analysts of the chemical branch of the business community predict that the recent decline in the price of formaldehyde in Shandong is mainly below.