1、 Price data

According to the data of business news agency, as of June 29, the average price of 180CST of domestic fuel oil was 6650.00 yuan / ton, up 3.16% from 6446.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

On June 29, the fuel oil commodity index was 134.68, down 0.61 points from yesterday, down 0.75% from 135.70 points (2022-06-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 192.27% from 46.08 points, the lowest point on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The domestic fuel oil 180CST price rose this month, and the domestic marine oil raw material price fell after rising. The overall high level supported the fuel oil 180CST cost. According to the business news agency, as of June 29, the price of 180CST self raised low sulfur fuel oil and 120cst self raised low sulfur fuel oil in Zhoushan area of China National combustion Corporation were 6650 yuan / ton and 6750 yuan / ton respectively; The price of 180CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 6550 yuan / ton, and the price of 120cst self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 6650 yuan / ton.

In June, the international crude oil price fluctuated. In early June, the EU’s oil ban on sanctions against Russia was delayed, and the expectation of tight supply remained unchanged. With the arrival of summer driving season in the United States, demand is expected to improve, supply and demand fundamentals are still good for oil prices, and crude oil prices rise. In late June, the international crude oil price fell, the market returned to fundamentals, and the crude oil supply price was under tight support. However, affected by the expectation of interest rate hikes by many central banks across the country, the market was worried about the economic recession, and the oil price was still fluctuating in the range. At the end of June, crude oil futures closed up for three consecutive days, hitting a two-week high, as the market questioned the ability of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to increase production significantly, as well as the supply concerns caused by the turmoil in Ecuador and Libya.

The increase in fuel oil inventories in Singapore has limited support for fuel oil prices. It is understood that Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of June 22, Singapore’s inventory of residual fuel oil, including fuel oil and low sulfur wax containing residual oil, increased by 1154000 barrels to 21348000 barrels; The inventory of light distillates including naphtha, gasoline and reformate decreased by 600000 barrels to 15212000 barrels; The inventory of medium distillate increased by 652000 barrels to 8.61 million barrels. In May, the sales volume of marine fuel in Singapore was 4.12 million tons, the highest in five months, an increase of 10% over that in April.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

At the end of June, the international crude oil price rebounded, which boosted the domestic ship fuel market. However, the market terminal demand was general, and the receiving of goods was limited. The overall market transaction was light, and the purchase was just needed. At present, the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 180CST is about 6600 yuan / ton, and the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 120cst is about 6700 yuan / ton. It is a single discussion. It is expected that the 180CST market of fuel oil will be mainly consolidated in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, on June 1, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6566 yuan / ton, and on June 28, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6283 yuan / ton. This month, the price of chlorinated paraffin fell by 4.31%.

2、 Market analysis

The price of chlorinated paraffin fell this month. In the first ten days of June, the price of chlorinated paraffin 52 fell slightly, there were price differences in various regions, and the operating rate of enterprises was not high. The raw material market is stable and the cost support is acceptable. The downstream demand is flat, and the supply and demand of chlorinated paraffin are weak. In mid June, the price of chlorinated paraffin 52 fell again to the end of the month. The operating rate of enterprises increased, and the supply of chlorinated paraffin increased. The raw material market weakened steadily and the cost support weakened. The downstream demand increases, the chlorinated paraffin is at a low level, and the on-site trading is heating up. As of June 28, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui was about 6200 yuan / ton, that in Northeast was about 6300 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong was about 6050 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw liquid wax, the price of liquid wax fluctuated and fell this month, and the market followed the change of crude oil price. The market trading is average, and the demand is acceptable. It is recommended to pay attention to the change of crude oil. In terms of raw liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine fell sharply this month, the downstream demand was weak, the market transaction was poor, and it was still mainly downward in the short term.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The chlorinated paraffin analyst of the business agency believes that the current market of liquid chlorine, the raw material of chlorinated paraffin, is poor and the cost support is insufficient. The price of chlorinated paraffin has been at a low level, and the downstream purchasing intention is strong. In a bad market, the downstream should be cautious. It is expected that chlorinated paraffin will continue to decline in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the domestic maleic anhydride market price fluctuated upward this week. As of June 26, the average price of maleic anhydride by benzene hydrogenation remained at 10633.33 yuan / ton, up 1.92% from the price of 10433.33 yuan / ton on June 20 and 2.90% from the same period last month.

On June 26, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 100.17, unchanged from yesterday, down 39.81% from the highest point of 166.43 in the cycle (December 15, 2021), and up 95.72% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the domestic benzene maleic anhydride market started at a low level. In the near future, the downstream unsaturated resin market is generally started, and the rigid demand is the main factor. As of the 26th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 9000 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu was about 9000 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was about 9500 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was about 9500 yuan / ton, and that in South China was about 9500 yuan / ton.

On the upstream side, pure benzene continued its decline this week, with a continuous decline. On June 17, the average price of pure benzene was 9884 yuan / ton, and on June 24, the average price was 9559 yuan / ton, down 3.29% from last week. At present, there is a certain price difference between SINOPEC and local refining enterprises. The price of pure benzene rebounded slightly in the middle of the week, boosted by some downstream transactions. However, the downstream styrene weakened and the overall market mentality was poor. The price continued to decline slightly at the weekend. This week, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China decreased from 9675 yuan / ton last weekend to 9500 yuan / ton this weekend, a weekly drop of 1.81%. As for n-butane, the price in Shandong was 6120 yuan / ton as of June 26.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the maleic anhydride product analysts of the business club, the benzene oxidation process in the domestic maleic anhydride market is suffering from serious losses, the plant has been shut down for maintenance, the market circulation source is small, and the n-butane oxidation process has declined recently. The market of downstream resin manufacturers has been sorted out, and the terminal is not significantly favorable. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will be mainly sorted out in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business society, mixed xylene continued its decline this week, and the price fell broadly. On June 17, the price was 8840 yuan / ton; On Friday (June 24), the price was 8270 yuan / ton, down 6.45% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 40.65%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Crude oil fell, and the external mixed xylene rebounded after last week’s sharp decline, but the external news was generally short. The domestic mixed xylene market negotiation has weakened, the downstream PX market is poor, the terminal gasoline has fallen continuously, the weak demand has dragged down the price, and the market focus has returned to the demand side.

In the external market, the price of mixed xylene in Asia rebounded this week. On Thursday (June 23), the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was $1277 / ton, a year-on-year increase of $30 / ton, or 2.41%; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was $1227 / ton, with a year-on-year increase of $30 / ton, or 2.51%.

In terms of crude oil, the expectation of tight global oil supply still exists, but the market is worried that the expectation of the Federal Reserve to significantly raise interest rates may lead to a recession in the U.S. economy, and crude oil fell this week. As of June 24, Brent’s price was flat this week compared with last week; WTI fell $1.94/barrel, or 1.77%.

On the downstream side, in the PX market, the domestic PX price was stable this week. On Friday (June 24), the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 10900 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and increased by 67.69% compared with the same period last year. As of the 23rd, the closing price in Asia was USD 1275 / T FOB Korea and USD 1293 / T CFR China

In the ox market, the price of ox in East China was stable this week. On Friday (June 24), the price of ox in East China was 9300 yuan / ton, flat compared with last week and up 50% compared with the same period last year. The performance of the industrial chain was weak, and the price of orthobenzene was temporarily stable during the week.

In terms of gasoline, the gasoline price in Shandong fell violently this week. On June 17, the price was 9516.8 yuan / ton, and on June 24, the price was 9157 yuan / ton, down 3.78% from last week and up 15.57% from the same period last year.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In terms of crude oil, crude oil is playing a long and short game. The expectation of tight supply and demand growth give support to the oil price. The expectation of interest rate hikes in many countries drag down the economy, but the short-term oil price is still high. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions, etc. on crude oil prices.

The crude oil trend is full of uncertainty, and the external market lacks good guidance. The trend of domestic mixed xylene returns to the demand side, and the downstream has insufficient enthusiasm to follow up the high priced mixed xylene. It is expected that the mixed xylene may still fall. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline, the impact of mixed xylene and downstream device dynamics, port inventory, external market, etc. on mixed xylene prices.

According to the data monitored by the business club, as of June 23, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 12700.00 yuan / ton, and the DMF price was mainly stable. Compared with the price at the beginning of the week, there was no significant change. In the short term, the DMF market was mainly stable.

As of June 23, the domestic DMF price has been running smoothly. At present, the mainstream price range is 12500-13000 yuan / ton. The transaction atmosphere is acceptable, the negotiation atmosphere is positive, the manufacturers’ shipment is smooth, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the logistics is smooth. The latest quotation of the manufacturer: Jinan Qichen Chemical Co., Ltd. is 12700 yuan / ton, Shandong Zhiying New Material Co., Ltd. is 12700 yuan / ton, Jinan Hengtong Chemical Co., Ltd. is 12700 yuan / ton, Jinan Jutai Chemical Co., Ltd. is 12700 yuan / ton, and Shandong Chengze Chemical Co., Ltd. is 11800 yuan / ton.

Upstream methanol: as of June 20, the domestic methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range. The price was relatively higher, rising first and then falling. The main reason was that the market demand improved and the receiving price rose. However, after the methanol futures fell in the middle of the week, the trading atmosphere became weaker, and the atmosphere of the domestic methanol spot market was light, and the price fell slightly.

Chemical commodity index: on June 23, the chemical index was 1181 points, down 4 points from yesterday, down 15.64% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 97.49% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

DMF analysts of business agency believe that in the short term, the DMF market will mainly operate smoothly, and the price range is 12700 yuan / ton. (if you want to know more about the latest market trends of the industrial chain, you are welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business club, obtain commodity information and master commodity prices).

According to the monitoring data of the business community, since June, the market of hydrogen peroxide has weakened due to the terminal demand, and the weak trend is mainly downward. At the beginning of June, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market was 1010 yuan / ton. On June 22, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market was 950 yuan / ton, down 5.94%.

Bad leading the downward trend of hydrogen peroxide Market

Since June, the hydrogen peroxide market has continued to be dominated by weak consolidation, and the price has fluctuated slightly. The mainstream quotation is still at the line of 1000 yuan / ton. By the middle of June, the terminal demand was still low, the market transaction was flat, the manufacturer’s quotation was stable, and the average market price of hydrogen peroxide had fallen below 1000 yuan / ton, at the front line of 990 yuan / ton. The terminal demand continued to be poor, the manufacturers’ confidence in price support was weak, and the hydrogen peroxide market continued to decline. On the 22nd, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market had reached about 950 yuan / ton.

On June 22, the hydrogen peroxide Market of some domestic manufacturers was as follows:

The quotation of hydrogen peroxide of Luxi Chemical is 790 yuan / ton; The quotation of Hebei Zhengyuan hydrogen peroxide is 880 yuan / ton; Anhui Quansheng Chemical Co., Ltd. offers hydrogen peroxide at 1180 yuan / ton.

Li Bing, an hydrogen peroxide analyst at the business agency, believes that the terminal demand is weak, and the hydrogen peroxide price will continue to weaken in the future.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the sulfur price in East China rose slightly this week. On June 19, the sulfur price was 3973.33 yuan / ton. Compared with the price of 3963.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, it rose slightly by 0.25% during the week and decreased by 0.83% month on month.

This week, the sulfur market was consolidated and operated. The sulfur price was high, and some downstream had resistance to the high price, so their purchasing enthusiasm was weakened. In order to maintain the shipment, the enterprise lowered its quotation. In the later part of the week, the downstream just needed to follow up. The enterprise’s shipment was ok, and the quotation was temporarily stable. As of the 19th, the fixed sulfur price of refineries in Shandong Province was between 3880-4040 yuan / ton, with a range reduction of 20 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of liquid sulfur was between 3950-4000 yuan / ton, with a range reduction of 50 yuan / ton.

This week, the sulfuric acid Market in Shandong was weak and downward, and the price trend fell during the week. On June 17, the quotation was 1076 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.39% compared with the beginning of the week. The devices of mainstream sulphuric acid manufacturers in Shandong have resumed normal operation, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. The downstream enterprises’ devices are overhauled, the demand for sulphuric acid is weakened, the operators’ mentality is bearish, the enterprise quotation is lowered, and the market fluctuates and falls in the week.

The downstream phosphate fertilizer market has been consolidated at a high level. The market in one week is mainly stable. The manufacturer’s inventory is tight, some enterprises’ quotations are suspended, and a small number of orders are received. The downstream enterprises are not enthusiastic about purchasing, just need to follow up, and the market trading atmosphere is acceptable. The market of diammonium chloride rose slightly, the raw materials were in short supply, and the spot market was tight. The enterprise had the support of early orders, and the quotation increased slightly. The market was running at a high level.

According to the sulfur analysts of business agency, the current domestic sulfur price is on the high side, the downstream market is weakened, and the demand is reduced. In addition, some operators are resistant to high prices. It is expected that the sulfur market will be weak in the future, with little change. The overall price is still high, and the specific attention will be paid to the market follow-up.

1、 Price data

As of June 19, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8825.75 yuan / ton, down 0.95% from 8910.75 yuan / ton on June 13. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 8800-8900 yuan / ton.

As of June 19, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic locally refined straight run naphtha was 8716.67 yuan / ton, down 0.91% from 8796.67 yuan / ton on June 13. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight run naphtha was about 8700-8800 yuan / ton.

On June 19, the naphtha commodity index was 108.93, unchanged from yesterday, down 10.45% from the highest point of the cycle (121.64 points 2022-03-10), and up 157.88% from the lowest point of 42.24 points on July 19, 2016. Note: period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the local refining naphtha price fell at a high level, the refineries actively pushed up, the international crude oil price fell, the naphtha market cost support was limited, the market mentality was pessimistic, the terminal demand was not significantly good, and the refineries continuously lowered prices and actively shipped.

Upstream: the decline in international crude oil prices is mainly due to the resonance impact of the general decline in the stock market and bulk commodities. Bulk commodity prices are generally at historical highs. Once the market is in trouble, a broad shock correction is inevitable. However, the fundamentals in key areas such as crude oil and agricultural products have not been reversed. In particular, the Russian Ukrainian war has led to tight supply. Therefore, it is expected that it will take time to peak or reverse the downward trend.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business agency, the price of toluene fell continuously this week. On June 10, the price was 9230 yuan / ton, and on June 17, the price was 9060 yuan / ton, down 1.84% from last week. Mixed xylene fell continuously this week. On June 10, the price was 9180 yuan / ton, and on June 17, the price was 8840 yuan / ton, 3.7% lower than last week. In the PX market, the market price of paraxylene rose this week. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 10900 yuan / ton, up 2.83% from the price of 10600 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 67.69% year-on-year.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the energy analysts of the business agency, the international crude oil price fell, the naphtha market cost support was limited, the market mentality was pessimistic, the terminal demand was not significantly positive, and the refineries continued to reduce their prices and actively shipped. It is expected that naphtha refining in the near future may decline slightly.

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the domestic PTA market rose and fell this week (June 13-17). As of June 17, the domestic market was 7289 yuan / ton, down 3.13% from the beginning of the week and up 49.71% year-on-year.

Cost support was significantly weakened. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points more than expected. The market was disturbed by macro bad news, and the expectation of demand setback put pressure on oil prices. As of June 16, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $117.59/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $119.81/barrel. At the same time, with the improvement of PX supply, the stage speculation of PX may have ended, and the PX price fell sharply after rising to the high point since 2014.

In addition, the 650000 ton unit of Yizheng Chemical fiber was shut down for a short time this week, and the 2.2 million ton unit of Ningbo Yisheng was shut down for maintenance around June 12. Yisheng Hainan was restarted to 90%, PTA maintenance units were reduced, and the operating rate of the industry was increased to more than 76%.

The terminal weaving load was reduced to about 57%, the factory was not willing to stock up, and the polyester filament inventory was still high. The polyester operating load was stable at around 80%, and PTA social inventory began to accumulate slightly under the condition of weakening demand.

According to the analysts of business agency, under the background of weakening cost drive, light production and sales of downstream polyester plants, weak supply and demand of PTA and low profits, and the superposition of upstream and downstream negative factors, PTA prices are expected to continue to decline.

In June, after the aluminum price broke 20000 yuan, it stopped falling and stabilized to rise

According to the data of business agency, on June 16, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 20170 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 0.43%, a decrease of 0.18% compared with the average market price of 20206.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (6.1), and an increase of 7% compared with the average market price of 18800 yuan / ton in the same period last year.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingots was 24240 yuan / ton, and the recent deviation from the peak value fell by 16.79%. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingots is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 7.90% recently.

Introduction to aluminum ingot fundamentals in June

1. acceleration of social inventory of aluminum ingots

At present, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in major regions has been in the range of 900000-980000 tons in May, which has been largely removed. As of the 16th, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in major regions was 808000 tons, down 102000 tons from 910000 tons at the beginning of the month.

2. domestic aluminum production data

In May, the added value of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 3.4% year-on-year, and the cumulative added value from January to May increased by 3.9% year-on-year; In May, the output of ten non-ferrous metals was 5.64 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. From January to may, the cumulative output was 27.25 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 0.9%. Among them, the output of electrolytic aluminum in May was 3.42 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. From January to may, the output of electrolytic aluminum was 16.4 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 0.3%

3. macro policy information

In June, the Federal Reserve FOMC announced an interest rate increase of 75 basis points, raising the target range of the federal funds rate to 1.5% to 1.75%, and it is expected that it will be appropriate to continue to raise the target range. This is the largest increase in the past three decades since 1994, and the interest rate will be raised to the high level before the outbreak of the epidemic in March 2020. At the same time, the Federal Reserve decided that the committee would continue to reduce its holdings of US Treasury bonds, institutional bonds and institutional mortgage-backed securities.

Aftermarket forecast

The news of interest rate increase was bad for the non-ferrous metal market. The news in the early stage was basically digested. After the bad news was realized, the non-ferrous metal price began to build a bottom and recover.

The domestic transportation conditions have gradually improved, the market circulation has begun to return to normality, the downstream consumer demand has a rising momentum, the spot trading of Foshan, Wuxi and Gongyi, the three mainstream consumer places, has risen, and the willingness of the downstream to replenish inventory is increasing. It is expected that the aluminum ingot price will be strong in the short term.