On May 29, the natural rubber commodity index was 38.28, unchanged from yesterday, down 61.72% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (September 1, 2011), and up 40.32% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber since May 2022

According to the monitoring of business agency (100ppi.com), from May 23 to 29, the average spot market price of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in East China market rose from 12730 yuan / ton to 12910 yuan / ton, of which the lowest point was 12710 yuan / ton on the 24th and the highest point was 12910 yuan / ton in the second half of the week, with a weekly increase of 1.41%.

Figure 3: Weekly K histogram of natural rubber market since May 2022

Industry analysis: macro aspect: on May 25, the national teleconference on stabilizing the economic market emphasized the solid promotion of stabilizing the economy; The impact of domestic public health incidents continues to decline. Shanghai is gradually returning to work and production. The supply of raw materials, circulation and sales of finished products are gradually recovering, especially in the next month; Loose real estate policies in many places are conducive to the improvement of market atmosphere and terminal demand; The favorable automobile consumption policies in Shenzhen, Shanghai and other places have a preference for stimulating the rubber raw material market.

Supply side: Thailand production area. Due to the rainy weather, the recent low output of new rubber has affected the output growth; In the production area of Vietnam, the cutting rate has reached 90%. Recently, there has been a lot of rain, which has affected the development of rubber cutting and the output of raw materials. In China’s domestic area, Yunnan has been fully opened, but the rainy weather continues this week, the output of raw materials is affected, and the stock of raw materials is already tight. In addition, some processing plants in Hainan have returned to Yunnan for processing, which has raised the local purchase price in Yunnan. According to the data of minxiang.com, the market guide price of Hainan glue was 15400 yuan / ton at the beginning of May, 18800 yuan / ton at the end of May, a cumulative increase of 3400 yuan / ton. Affected by deciduous leaf disease, Hainan has delayed cutting for many times, and the delay is better than expected. It is said that this situation will be significantly improved in the middle of next month.

Demand side: first of all, the impact of public health events has weakened. Shanghai and other important circulation areas are gradually returning to work and production. The recovery of local and surrounding automobile enterprises will drive the rapid growth of raw material consumption and tire demand. Although the previous heavy truck distribution and sales data showed that the three major demands all weakened significantly, and the slow internal and external demand led to heavy inventory of finished products of tire enterprises and great pressure to remove them from the warehouse, in the short term, the gradual resumption of work and production in Shanghai is a great benefit for the smooth shipping of imported rubber raw materials to Hong Kong, warehousing and delivery of warehouse receipts. Secondly, with regard to the start-up of tire enterprises, statistics show that the domestic tire market demand has picked up, and the operating rate of tire enterprises is about 60-70%. Thirdly, the spot price of latex raw materials is rising, and the users of downstream product enterprises, including latex gloves, foaming plants, balloon plants and adhesive product plants, do not buy it. Their sales channels are blocked, resulting in the accumulation of finished product inventory, profit contraction and even loss. The enterprise is in a difficult situation.

In terms of inventory: the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased, while the inventory in the bonded zone decreased slightly. Statistics show that as of May 23, the inventory of 16 sample natural rubber general trade warehouses in Qingdao was 299900 tons, an increase of 25000 tons over the previous period.

In terms of import and export: the lack of Inbound Goods and the lack of high-cost enterprises to take over the orders led to the shortage of imported concentrated milk in the spot market. The high price and traders’ covering the orders led to almost transactions in the spot market. At the same time, the enthusiasm of concentrated milk factories in China’s domestic production areas was high and the profits of dry rubber factories were meager. In the first four months of 2022, Cambodia exported 79356 tons of rubber, a year-on-year increase of 3%, and Thailand exported 1181000 tons of natural rubber (excluding composite rubber), a year-on-year increase of 3%; The total export of natural rubber and mixed rubber was 1.637 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%; A total of 824000 tons were exported to China, a year-on-year decrease of 1%.

In terms of import and export, the tense situation of containers continues, the arrival time of shipping date is delayed seriously, and the port transportation is not smooth, and the available supply of goods is locally tense; According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on May 9, China imported 536000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in April 2022, down 7.1% from 577000 tons in the same period in 2021. From January to April 2022, China imported 2.397 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 1.3% over 2.367 million tons in the same period of 2021.

Figure 4: trend chart of crude oil market since May 2022

Macro aspect: on May 27, the price of international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $115.07/barrel, up US $0.86 or 0.9%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $115.56/barrel, up US $1.39 or 1.22%. The US summer driving season is coming, and the demand expectation has boosted the oil price. In addition, the EU has launched negotiations on whether to completely ban the import of Russian oil..

Hot spots of this week: 1. The State Council recently held an executive meeting and pointed out that the current downward pressure on the economy continues to increase, and many market players are very difficult. Development is the foundation and key to solving all our problems. We should implement the deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, strengthen confidence, respond decisively, fully implement the new development concept, effectively coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, speed up the implementation of the policies set forth in the central economic work conference and the government work report, and intensify the implementation. We should adopt a package of targeted, powerful and effective range control measures in accordance with the overall thinking and policy orientation to stabilize the economic fundamentals. The meeting further deployed a package of measures to stabilize the economy, and implemented 33 measures in six aspects, including fiscal and related policies, financial policies, stabilizing the supply chain of the industrial chain, promoting consumption and effective investment (including supporting rigid and improved housing demand due to urban policies), ensuring energy security, ensuring unemployment security, providing minimum living allowances and providing assistance to people in need, so as to promote the economy to return to the normal track and ensure that it operates within a reasonable range.

2. In the first quarter of 2022, Thailand’s natural rubber output reached 1.35 million tons, an increase of 2.8% over 1.31 million tons in the same period last year. In terms of specific varieties, the output of cigarette glue decreased by 2% year on year; Standard glue increased by 11% year on year; Latex decreased by 2.4% year on year; The mixed rubber decreased by 8.8% year-on-year. In the first quarter, the domestic consumption of Tianjiao was 370000 tons, an increase of 95% year-on-year. As of March, the inventory of natural rubber in Thailand was 980000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 15.7% and a month on month decrease of 5.3%.

3. In the first four months of 2022, Thailand exported 1181000 tons of natural rubber (excluding composite rubber), an increase of 3% year-on-year. From January to April, the natural rubber exported to China totaled 374000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8%, and the mixed rubber exported from Thailand totaled 456000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7%. In general, Thailand exported 1.637 million tons of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first four months, a year-on-year increase of 4%; A total of 824000 tons were exported to China, a year-on-year decrease of 1%.

4. According to foreign media reports on May 23, the Secretary General of the natural rubber Association of Cote d’Ivoire (apromac) said on Monday that the rubber production of Cote d’Ivoire will reach at least 1.2 million tons this year, higher than 1.1 million tons last year, but will be reduced due to the deepening urbanization after 2025..

5. On May 29, the Shanghai Municipal People’s government issued the action plan for accelerating economic recovery and revitalization in Shanghai. The plan pointed out that before December 31, 2022, individual consumers who scrap or change their names, and buy pure electric vehicles, will be given a financial subsidy of 10000 yuan per vehicle. According to incomplete statistics, nearly 20 provinces and cities, including Guangdong Province, Hubei Province, Shandong Province, Hainan Province, Jilin Province and Fujian Province, have introduced incentive policies related to the car market this year, with a total subsidy of hundreds of millions of yuan. In some areas with a large number of cars, they have also been supplemented by loose policies such as increasing the number of license plates. According to the agency, assuming that the leverage multipliers of this stimulus policy are 3/4/5 times respectively, the corresponding consumption will be 1800/2400/300billion yuan, and the corresponding new car purchase demand will be 108/144/1.8 million.

Future forecast: under the background of stabilizing the national economy, all walks of life actively respond to the development difficulties, and the favorable policies for real estate and automobile have formed favorable policies for the rubber industry. From the industrial point of view, the new rubber production is low, the import volume is small, the inventory is declining, and the downstream product enterprises are facing the difficult situation of high raw material prices; The output of subsequent production areas increased, and Shanghai resumed production and increased the arrival, warehousing and delivery of imported rubber raw materials. It is believed that the shortage of latex supply in next month will be improved. It is expected that the natural rubber market will be strong in the near future, and the latex price will remain high until the output is increased. In the medium term, close attention will be paid to the improvement of downstream product enterprises’ demand for raw rubber under the favorable policies.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

It can be seen from the above figure that the price of hydrochloric acid in China is temporarily stable this week, with an average price of 300 yuan / ton. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year increase was 28.57%. On May 27, the commodity index of hydrochloric acid was 78.95, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.74% from the highest point of 137.89 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 339.10% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is good, and the downstream procurement is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price this week was temporarily stable. Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid offered 400 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; The price of synthetic hydrochloric acid from Wen Shui is 230 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Liaocheng Huatong hydrochloric acid offered 120 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Xiangcheng San’an hydrochloric acid is quoted at 450 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market fell slightly, weakening the support for hydrochloric acid. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market price fell slightly, from 2268.75 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 2242.50 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 1.16%, up 27.41% year-on-year compared with the same period last year; The market price of ammonium chloride rose slightly, from 1490.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 1515.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 1.68%. On the whole, the downstream market fluctuated with each other, and the downstream products were generally enthusiastic about purchasing hydrochloric acid, which had a negative impact on the price of hydrochloric acid.

Aftermarket forecast

In the first ten days of June, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate in a narrow range. The recent market of upstream liquid chlorine has declined slightly, the cost support has weakened, the market of downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride has fluctuated in a narrow range, and the downstream purchase intention is general. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has suffered a slight shock and decline recently.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of May 26, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate is 5366 yuan / ton. Compared with May 1, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate is 4900 yuan / ton), the price is increased by 466 yuan / ton, or 9.52%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that in May, the focus of domestic dimethyl carbonate market continued to rise, with a monthly increase of more than 9%. After the May Day Labor Day, the downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate was general, and some dimethyl carbonate factories were under pressure to slightly reduce the price. At 10:00 on the 10th, dimethyl carbonate fell to the low point in May, with the price reference of about 4866 yuan per ton. Subsequently, with the support of the high level of raw material propylene oxide and the improvement of export environment, on the 12th and 13th, the market of dimethyl carbonate finally ushered in a warmer operation, the pressure of factory inventory supply was relieved, and the reported price was gradually strengthened and increased. On the 22nd, the ex factory price of domestic dimethyl carbonate was around 5100-5600 yuan / ton, and the cumulative increase range on the 10th was around 400-600 yuan / ton, an increase of 10.27%. Subsequently, the market was largely stable and slightly dynamic. As of the 26th, the domestic ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate was about 5000-5600 yuan / ton, and the trading atmosphere was quiet.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, as of May 25, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 11633.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.87% compared with the price on May 20. Recently (5.20-5.25), the propylene oxide market has been in a stalemate. The quotation of enterprises is mainly stable, and the prices of some enterprises have increased slightly. Recently, the market of raw material propylene has fallen, the price of raw material liquid chlorine has fallen after rising, the cost support has weakened, the supply side is mainly stable, and the inventory has accumulated slightly and slowly. However, the multi inventory pressure of manufacturers is controllable, which supports the market mentality. The downstream demand is cold, the procurement enthusiasm is weakened, and the market is in a stalemate. On the 25th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 10800-10900 yuan / ton.

Future trend analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate on the floor is acceptable, most of the benefits come from exports, and the overall support of domestic demand is still general. The dimethyl carbonate data division of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market is mainly adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the news changes of supply and demand.

Recently (5.13-5.25), the market of nitrile rubber continued to be weak. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of nitrile rubber was 22800 yuan / ton as of May 25, down 4.4% from 23850 yuan / ton on May 13.

In May, the operating rate of domestic nitrile rubber was close to 80%, and the supply side was relatively sufficient; The ex factory price of nitrile rubber enterprises was adjusted downward by 500 ~ 800 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of business society, as of May 25, the ex factory price of Lanhua nitrile n41e was reported to be 22500 yuan / ton; 3305e ex factory price: 22800 yuan / ton; The ex factory price of 3308e is 23800 yuan / ton; The ex factory price of Nandi nitrile 1052 is 23600 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 1051 is 24000 yuan / ton.

In May, the price of butadiene fell first and then rose, rebounded slightly, the price of acrylonitrile fluctuated slightly, and the cost side strengthened slightly. According to the monitoring of business society, as of May 25, the price of butadiene was 10335 yuan / ton, up 5.29% from 9816 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; As of May 25, the price of acrylonitrile was 11520 yuan / ton, down 0.35% from 11560 at the beginning of the month.

Since May, the downstream operation of nitrile rubber has been low, and the demand side is weak. According to the business society, the downstream thermal insulation foaming, rubber hose and other industries started in the vicinity of 50-60%, mostly purchased on demand, and had resistance to the high price of nitrile, and the high price of nitrile rubber fell slightly.

Future forecast: the nitrile analyst of business society believes that the supply and demand of nitrile rubber is slightly deadlocked, and the nitrile rubber market is expected to be weak and volatile.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of acetic acid in East China was 5060 yuan / ton on May 22. Compared with 5070 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, it was reduced by 10 yuan / ton during the week, with little change on the whole. As of May 22, the market price of acetic acid in various regions rose and fell as follows:

Region, May 16, May 22, Price rise and fall

South China, 4700 yuan / ton, 4650 yuan / ton, – fifty

North China, 4900 yuan / ton, 4900 yuan / ton, 0

Shandong Province, 4850 yuan / ton, 4900 yuan / ton, + fifty

Jiangsu Province 4800 yuan / ton, 4800 yuan / ton, 0

Zhejiang Province, 4900 yuan / ton, 4900 yuan / ton, 0

During the week, the acetic acid market operated on a wait-and-see basis, and the price trend changed little. In the acetic acid market, the unit maintenance and low load operation of individual enterprises, the market supply is tight, the enterprise inventory is not under pressure, the downstream purchase is rational, the purchase is based on demand, the enterprise shipment is smooth, the operators hold a wait-and-see attitude, and most of the manufacturer’s quotations operate stably temporarily.

In terms of spot, the ex factory offer of main production enterprises in the main production area increased at the beginning of the week, but the spot gas buying is general, the demand is long, the overall shipment is general, and the downstream receiving price is difficult to push up. As of May 22, the average price of methanol production enterprises was 2665 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.85% during the week.

In the downstream, the market of ethyl acetate decreased slightly. In terms of enterprise operation, most units of manufacturers in East and South China operate normally, and the supply is relatively abundant. In terms of demand, the purchase intention of downstream factories is weak, and most transactions are based on small orders and low-end prices. East China was generally affected by national public health events, which dragged down market transactions and restrained some demand.

The acetic acid analyst of business society believes that the supply of acetic acid market is OK, the downstream demand is stable, the purchase in the market just needs to be followed up, the enterprise inventory is not under pressure, the shipment is smooth, and the overall supply and demand in the market remains balanced. It is expected that the short-term acetic acid market will wait and see, sort out and operate, and pay specific attention to the downstream purchase.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the polyacrylamide commodity index on May 22 was 97.15, the same as yesterday, down 12.88% from the highest point of 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 17.20% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: according to the data monitoring of business agency, this week (may 16-22), the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s domestic market increased steadily and slightly, and the mainstream quotation was slightly adjusted from 15828.57 yuan / ton to about 15900 yuan / ton. The production of the enterprise is normal and the market inventory is sufficient; The downstream demand is still general, partially affected by transportation capacity and cost, and the shipping pressure of enterprises is still not small.

Industrial chain: according to the data of business agency, the market of upstream raw material acrylonitrile weakened slightly in the week from May 16 to 22. It was mainly reported at about 11540 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and lowered to 11520 yuan / ton at the weekend; Raw material acrylic acid, the acrylic acid market was stable in that week, and the average quotation price in East China was 14733.33 yuan / ton. The market price of raw material propylene (Shandong) was under pressure, with an average price of 8580 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 8330 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.91%. The cost side support is limited, the supply side is tight, the downstream just needs to follow up and stabilize, and the market negotiation is orderly. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may operate firmly in the short term. More attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic LNG was 6814 yuan / ton on May 20, down 104 yuan / ton or 1.5% from 6918 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. During the week, the domestic LNG market fell and the price fell steadily. This week’s market trading is average. Led by off-season factors, the market demand is not high and the receiving of goods is weak. In addition, the price of inlet gas is reduced, which has impacted the domestic market. In addition, this week’s raw gas auction and the decline of cost support further exacerbate the downward trend of domestic LNG market price. Led by the market bad, it is expected that the domestic LNG price will continue to be stable and downward.

Future forecast: the cost of raw materials is stable and weak, the downstream demand is general, and the spot inventory in the market is sufficient. It is expected that the polyacrylamide market will remain stable in the future, supplemented by small adjustment.

1、 Price trend

Toluene rose by a wide margin this week, according to the bulk list data of business society. The price was 7540 yuan / ton on May 13 and 7860 yuan / ton on Friday (May 20), up 4.24% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 31.96%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Due to the strong demand for gasoline in the United States and the continuous rise of toluene prices in the US gold plate, South Korea’s domestic toluene exports turned to the United States for arbitrage, and domestic toluene exports increased. Toluene in East China ports rose continuously, while negotiations in other regions were general, mainly following the rise.

In terms of external trading, toluene in Asia continued to rise this week. On Thursday (May 19), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $1066 / ton, a year-on-year increase of US $8 / ton, or 0.76%.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil surged this week. As of May 20, Brent rose $1 / barrel, or 0.9%; WTI rose $2.74/barrel, or 2.48%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China fell continuously this week. The price was 17250 yuan / ton on May 13 and 17025 yuan / ton on May 20, down 1.3% from last week and up 21.61% from the same period last year.

In terms of PX market, domestic PX rose broadly this week. On Friday (May 20), the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 9900 yuan / ton, up 6.45% from last week and 54.69% from the same period last year. On May 19, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia was 1254 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 1272 US dollars / ton CFR China.

In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline in Shandong fell this week. The price was 8618 yuan / ton on May 13 and 8520.8 yuan / ton on May 20, down 1.13% from last week and up 11.64% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, in the short term, under the uncertain situation in Russia and Ukraine, the oil price continued to run at a high level. However, under the expectation of substantial interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, it may drag down the price of crude oil. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.

The short-term crude oil and external prices are high, and the export of toluene continues to support the domestic market. It is expected that toluene will run stronger. Pay attention to the trend of crude oil and external market, the domestic gasoline market, the dynamics and demand of toluene and downstream devices, etc.

Since May, the domestic spandex market has maintained a slight decline. As of May 19, the average market price of 40d specification was 49000 yuan / ton, down 7.89% from the beginning of the month and 28.36% year-on-year. Spandex manufacturers started to maintain a high level of 83%, with sufficient spot supply, and some manufacturers have accumulated inventory.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan / ton)

Region, 20D ., 30D., 40D

Zhejiang, 60000-68000., 54000-60000., 46000-52000

Shandong, 60000-68000., 54000-60000., 46000-52000

Fujian, 60000-68000., 54000-60000., 46000-52000

Jiangsu, 60000-68000., 54000-60000., 46000-52000

Summary of production and sales dynamics of domestic PTMEG manufacturers

Enterprise name, Address, Capacity (10000 tons / year) remarks

BASF Shanghai, Shanghai, 11., The unit is expected to restart at the end of the month during shutdown

Jiaxing Xiaoxing, Jiaxing, Zhejiang, 13.5., The device returns to stability

Hangzhou Sanlong, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 6., Minor overhaul of the unit is expected to be carried out on the 15th-26th

Yizheng Dalian, Jiangsu Yizheng, 4., Long term shutdown of the unit

Panjin, Changchun, Panjin, Liaoning Province, 6., Device maintenance

Henan energy Hebi Coal Chemical Co., Ltd ., Hebi, Henan ., 6,. One device operates at 7-8% load

Yanchang oil field gas technology, Yan’an, Shaanxi Province, four point six ., Unit 40% load production

Ningxia Xiaoxing ., Yinchuan, Ningxia, ten ., A set of 50000 ton unit is under agent replacement

Due to poor demand and weak BDO support on PTMEG cost side, the market mentality is poor, and some factories negotiate to make profits. At present, the market quotation of 1800 molecular weight is 38000-40000 yuan / ton, and the industry starts to maintain stability at 75%. Pure MDI traders are more willing to ship goods as a whole, the focus of mainstream negotiation is shifted downward, and the market reference is 20500-21200 yuan / ton telegraphic transfer barrel self delivery.

The downstream terminal field starts at a low level, the circular machine field starts at 30-40%, and the warp knitting field starts at about 50%. The demand follow-up is slow. Most enterprises set production by sales, have poor enthusiasm for taking goods, and have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for the future market.

Business analysts believe that at present, the supporting role of the cost side is weakened, the downstream end customers have poor intention to take goods, and the demand follow-up is flat. Under the superposition of upstream and downstream bad, the price of spandex is difficult to stick to and will maintain a shock decline.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 9020.00 yuan / ton on May 8 and 8990.00 yuan / ton on May 18, with a decline of 0.11% and 3.12% compared with April 1.

 According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 11816.67 yuan / ton on May 8 and 11566.67 yuan / ton on May 18, with a decline of 2.12% and 2.39% compared with April 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 9850.00 yuan / ton on May 8 and 9850.00 yuan / ton on May 18. During this period, the price remained stable compared with April 1.

In the middle of May, the domestic polyethylene market was mainly consolidated, and the overall trend was weak. In June, the overall fluctuation range of polyethylene spot market in China was still small, and the three major varieties in East China fell steadily, among which the market prices of LLDPE and LDPE decreased, and the market price of HDPE remained stable. Last week, due to the limited positive factors in the market, the ex factory prices of petrochemical enterprises collectively reduced the ex factory prices. Later, with the strong rebound of international crude oil, it brought some positive support to the market, and the ex factory prices of the three varieties stopped falling and stabilized. However, at present, the overall transaction situation of the market is weak, and the downstream receiving strength is general, which brings obvious bad news to the market.

The recent upward shock in Liansu futures market has brought certain benefits to the spot market. On May 17, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2209 was 8682, the highest price was 8780, the lowest price was 8660, the closing price was 8719, the former settlement price was 8675, the settlement price was 8718, up 44, the trading volume was 356526, the position was 282330, and the daily position was increased by 904. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

In the morning, international crude oil stopped rising and fell, and the cost side brought limited support to the market. At present, the negative factors in the market are obvious, the market supply continues to increase, the follow-up of terminal demand is insufficient, the market trading atmosphere is limited, and the social inventory pressure of polyethylene is large. It is expected that the polyethylene spot market will continue to be weak in the short term.

Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, on May 17, the average price of silver market in early trading was 4733.33 yuan / kg, up 1.42% daily, down 3.94% from the average price of 4927.67 yuan / kg in spot market at the beginning of the month (May 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the early average price was 4770 yuan / kg, a decrease of 0.77%.

On May 17, the spot market price of gold was 396.19 yuan / g, up 0.41% daily, down 1.90% from the early average price of 405.51 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (May 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the early average price was 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 6.83%.

Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year

In the long term, the price trend of precious metals tends to be similar, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

List of policies

1. Domestic news

The central bank launched a 10 billion yuan reverse repo operation today. As 100 billion yuan of medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 10 billion yuan of reverse repo expired today, a net return of 100 billion yuan was realized on that day.

Future forecast

Today, the bulk market rose more or fell less, and the price of precious metals recovered slightly. However, the policy still suppresses the long-term trend of precious metal prices.

Overseas inflation expectations have intensified. The European Commission predicts that inflation in the eurozone will reach 6.1% in 2022, compared with 3.5% in February, and will fall to 2.7% in 2023, much higher than the ECB’s target. The Fed’s interest rate hike has led to frequent interest rate hikes by central banks, and the international monetary easing policy has been gradually tightened to suppress the price of precious metals of interest free monetary assets. Risk aversion will be released in the short term, and it is expected that the weak operation will be dominated in the near future.