1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, titanium dioxide prices remained stable this week. The average price of titanium dioxide in China is 21100 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Titanium dioxide market is mainly stable this week. The overall trading situation of the market is general. Traders are more cautious in taking goods, and downstream customers purchase on demand. Affected by the epidemic in China, the logistics and transportation in some areas are still not very smooth. In addition, the price of raw sulfuric acid is rising, and the price of manufacturers is mainly stable. Up to now, the factory quotation including tax of domestic rutile titanium dioxide is 20200-22000 yuan / ton; The ex factory quotation of anatase titanium dioxide including tax is between 18000-19500 yuan / ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi area decreased slightly this week. Titanium ore market is general. There are few enquiries and few new orders. The downstream titanium dioxide market started to decline, and the goods were taken more carefully, focusing on just demand. On the whole, the titanium ore market is weak and stable, and the market is more wait-and-see. Up to now, the tax free quotation of 38 grade titanium ore is about 1550-1600 yuan / ton, that of 46 grade 10 titanium ore is about 2300-2350 yuan / ton, and that of 47 grade 20 ore is about 2450-2550 yuan / ton. In the short term, the titanium ore market is dominated by stable operation, and the market wait-and-see mood is strong. The actual transaction price shall be negotiated.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market rose this week, according to the bulk list data of business society. The average price of domestic sulfuric acid was 1158.33 yuan / ton last Friday and 1205 yuan / ton this Friday. The price increased by 4.03% within the week. From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market has risen sharply recently, with good cost support. Some sulfuric acid manufacturers have insufficient operation and reduced load. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market has risen sharply, the titanium dioxide and ammonium sulfate Market have been consolidated at a high level, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is good.

3、 Future forecast

Titanium dioxide analysts of business society believe that at present, the domestic titanium dioxide market maintains stable operation. The raw material titanium concentrate is reduced slightly, the price of sulfuric acid is increased, and the cost pressure is large. It is expected that the price of titanium dioxide will be stable in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be mainly negotiated.

According to the monitoring data of business society, the hydrogen peroxide market rose by more than 6% this week. At the beginning of the week, on April 6, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market was 846 yuan / ton. On April 13, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market was 900 yuan / ton, up 6.3%.

Terminal demand improved and hydrogen peroxide market rose

After the Qingming Festival, the hydrogen peroxide market ushered in a rise. Mainly because the market of terminal paper industry has improved, the demand for purchasing hydrogen peroxide has increased, and the hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have strong confidence in supporting the price, the hydrogen peroxide market continues to rise, with an increase of about 50 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation has exceeded the first line of 900 yuan / ton.

On April 13, Luxi Chemical offered hydrogen peroxide at 800 yuan / ton, up 60 yuan / ton from the 6th; Shijiazhuang Zhengyuan hydrogen peroxide quoted 820 yuan / ton, up 70 yuan / ton from the 6th; Quansheng chemical hydrogen peroxide quoted 1060 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton from the 6th.

Business agency hydrogen peroxide analyst Li Bing believes that there is still room for the future market of hydrogen peroxide to rise with the support of terminal demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6700 yuan / ton on April 6 and 6737 yuan / ton on April 11. The price of chlorinated paraffin 52 increased by 0.56% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Chlorinated paraffin 52 prices rose slightly this week. Affected by the epidemic, the demand for chlorinated paraffin is general, and the downstream operation is low. The price of chlorinated paraffin in Anhui, Henan, Hebei and Shandong increased, and the market in other regions was stable. As of April 11, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui is about 7000 yuan / ton, that in Shaanxi is about 6800 yuan / ton, that in Northeast is about 6700 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong is about 6450 yuan / ton.

On April 11, the price of international crude oil futures fell sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $94.29/barrel, down US $3.97 or 4.0%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $98.48/barrel, down US $4.30 or 4.2%. International Energy Agency (IEA) member countries released record crude oil strategic reserves and continued to ferment. In addition, the market was generally worried about the decline in demand in China due to public health events.

In terms of raw liquid wax, this week, the price of liquid wax is stable and upward, the enterprise ships stably, the transaction is good, and the downstream manufacturers actively purchase. In terms of raw liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine increased steadily this week. Due to the epidemic situation, the transportation is blocked and the overall demand is weak.

3、 Future forecast

Chlorinated paraffin analysts of business society believe that at present, the cost support of chlorinated paraffin is OK, the demand side performance is poor, and the supply and demand of chlorinated paraffin are weak. The epidemic broke out in many places in China, and the transportation was affected to a certain extent. The market of chlorinated paraffin is expected to be weak and stable in the short term.

Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, on April 11, the average price of silver market in early trading was 5059 yuan / kg, with a daily increase of 1.93%, which was 1.07% higher than the average price of 5005.33 yuan / kg in spot market at the beginning of the month (April 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the early average price was 4770 yuan / kg, an increase of 6.06%.

On April 11, the spot market price of gold was 398.42 yuan / g, up 0.77 per day, up 0.88% from the early average price of 394.96 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (April 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the early average price was 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 7%.

Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year

In the long term, the price trend of precious metals tends to be similar, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

List of policies

1. Domestic aspect

On the 11th, a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 10 billion yuan was carried out, and the bid winning interest rate was 2.10%, the same as before. As 10 billion yuan of reverse repo expired today, zero delivery and zero return were realized on the same day.

2. International aspects

Poland’s central bank raised its key interest rate to 4.5%, expected to be 4%.

The Russian central bank cut the benchmark interest rate by 300 basis points to 17%; The Russian Central Bank unexpectedly cut interest rates by 300 basis points on Friday, the most in nearly two decades, and said it might cut interest rates further in the coming months if conditions permit. The ruble rose sharply on hearing the news. The latest rise made the currency climb to the highest level since November 2021, completely recovering the land lost since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Sri Lanka raised the benchmark interest rate from 7.5% to 14.5%; Sri Lanka raised the time deposit interest rate from 6.5% to 13.5%.

The Central Bank of Peru raised its benchmark interest rate from 4% to 4.50%.

Future forecast

In the long run, the monetary easing policy is gradually ebbing, and the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates is expected to suppress the price of precious metals. In the short term, the risk aversion of precious metals has gradually subsided, and the upward space of precious metal prices has been suppressed.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of toluene fell continuously after the festival. On April 1, the price was 7580 yuan / ton; On Friday (April 8), the price was 7390 yuan / ton, down 2.57% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 35.32%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Due to the impact of domestic public health events, the logistics and transportation of toluene are blocked and the regional circulation is not smooth. The gasoline industry is in shock and downward, and the demand follow-up is insufficient; The downstream demand support of chemical industry is limited, and the enterprise mentality turns to shipping. Superimposed on the decline of crude oil during the week, the fundamentals of toluene were weak, and the price continued to decline after the festival.

In terms of external market, toluene in Asia fell after rising this week. On Thursday (April 7), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $1029 / ton, a year-on-year decrease of US $5 / ton, or 0.48%.

In terms of crude oil, it was reported within the week that the International Energy Agency planned to release 120 million barrels of crude oil reserves, the tightening of supply was expected to ease slightly, and the oil price fell as a whole. As of April 8, Brent fell $1.61 / barrel, or 1.54%; WTI fell $41.01/barrel, or 1.02%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China fell narrowly this week. The price was 19450 yuan / ton on April 1 and 19250 yuan / ton on April 8, down 1.03% from last week and up 18.46% from the same period last year.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price was stable this week. On Friday (April 8), the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 9300 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and increased by 45.31% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline in Shandong fell this week. The price was 8775 yuan / ton on April 1 and 8628 yuan / ton on April 8, down 1.67% from last week and 24.39% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is full of uncertainty, and the EU may introduce a new round of sanctions against Russia, and the oil price support remains. However, the release of reserve plans by the United States and the International Energy Agency may curb the rise in oil prices. The short-term oil price fluctuates violently. Continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the relationship between supply and demand of crude oil, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of US crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

The crude oil price remains high in the short term, the cost support remains unabated, and the market reluctance to sell remains. However, under the influence of public health events, logistics and transportation are blocked, and the demand follow-up is limited, which is the main factor for profiting toluene. Overall, toluene may still fall in the short term. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline and diesel oil, as well as the impact of toluene plant dynamics, downstream plant dynamics and demand on toluene price.

According to the data of business agency, the average price of silver market in early trading on April 7 was 4963 yuan / kg, down 0.85% from the average price of 5005.33 yuan / kg in spot market at the beginning of the month (April 1); Compared with the early trading average price of 4770 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), an increase of 4.05%.

On April 7, the spot market price of gold was 393.85 yuan / g, down 0.28% from the early average price of 394.96 yuan / g at the beginning of the month (April 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the early average price was 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 5.77%.

Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year

In the long term, the price trend of precious metals tends to be similar, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

List of policies

1. Domestic aspect

On the 7th, the central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 10 billion yuan, and the bid winning interest rate was 2.10%, which was the same as before. As 150 billion yuan of reverse repo expired today, a net return of 140 billion yuan was realized on that day.

2. International aspects

Poland’s central bank raised its key interest rate to 4.5%, expected to be 4%.

According to the Central Bank of Belarus, Belarus’s international foreign exchange reserves fell 8.4% in March. Belarus’s reserves fell to $7.57 billion as of April 1.

The interest rate difference between China and the United States fell below 20 BP, which is far from the “comfort range” of 80bp to 100bp previously agreed by the market, and has reached a historically low level. The key indicator of China US interest rate spread is an important consideration for changes in global capital flows, monetary policy collection and release, and the trend of RMB exchange rate. Industry insiders believe that under the differentiation of China US monetary policy, the narrowing of China US interest rate spread is still a trend, and upside down may also occur. However, the impact of this on global capital allocation mainly stays at the short-term emotional level, and does not constitute an obvious constraint on monetary regulation. The RMB exchange rate will remain stable.

Future forecast

In the long run, the monetary easing policy is gradually ebbing, and the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates is expected to suppress the price of precious metals. In the short term, the risk aversion of precious metals has gradually subsided, and the upward trend of precious metal prices is weak.

Aluminum fluoride prices fell on April 6

According to the data of business agency, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 10750 yuan / ton on April 6, down 2.27% from 11000 yuan / ton on the previous trading day, and the aluminum fluoride market fell.

Key points of analysis

The price of hydrofluoric acid stopped falling and rose, the price of fluorite became weak and stabilized, the cost of aluminum fluoride became stable, the start-up of aluminum fluoride manufacturers increased, the supply of aluminum fluoride increased, the cost was stable, the supply was surplus, and the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride remained; Downstream electrolytic aluminum prices fell, and downstream demand was weak.

Future forecast

Rising costs, oversupply, downward pressure on aluminum fluoride still exists, and the price of aluminum fluoride is weak and lowered in the future.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, from March 25 to April 2, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China rose from 11233 yuan / ton to 11400 yuan / ton, with an increase of 01.48% in the week, 3.95% month on month and 20.95% year-on-year.

The domestic cyclohexanone market rose narrowly this week. The raw material pure benzene was consolidated at a high level, and the cost support was relatively stable. The demand for downstream chemical fiber is still weak. Some cyclohexanone enterprises are not exported, and the supply of goods in the market is slightly reduced. Driven by the atmosphere of crude oil, cyclohexanone has risen in a narrow range. However, due to the restriction of the demand side, high price shipments are blocked, and the transaction price has fallen in a narrow range

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of April 2:

region ., Price

East China ., 11300-11500 yuan / ton cash delivery

South China ., 11500-11600 yuan / ton cash delivery

Shandong region ., 11200-11300 yuan / ton cash delivery

Raw material pure benzene: the price of pure benzene fell, and the spot transaction was 8400-8650 yuan / ton. The decline of crude oil was the main factor driving the price weakness.

Comparison chart of price trend of pure benzene (upstream raw material) and cyclohexanone in business agency:

Downstream caprolactam: Inner Mongolia Qinghua temporarily plans to restart in late April; The load of caprolactam units such as Zhejiang Juhua and Lunan Chemical increased slowly, but the profit of caprolactam was poor, which limited the demand for external recovery of cyclohexanone to a certain extent.

Comparison chart of price trend of cyclohexanone and caprolactam (downstream products) in business society:

Due to weak terminal demand and poor profit of caprolactam, the downstream procurement demand is limited. The cyclohexanone analyst of business agency predicts that the short-term cyclohexanone price is still greatly affected by cost side crude oil and pure benzene.

This week, the domestic BDO market continued to decline, and the poor transportation suppressed the further opening of downstream demand. The factory released the news of later maintenance or agent change, which boosted the industry. The hollow state changed slightly, and the market decline slowed down.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, from March 25 to April 1, the domestic BDO market price fell from 27870 yuan / ton to 27240 yuan / ton. The price fell by 2.26% during the week, 2.92% month on month and 8.67% year-on-year. In terms of market price, the mainstream of spot apron in East China negotiated 26500-26800 yuan / ton; The mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in South China is 26800-27000 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream raw materials, raw calcium carbide: raw calcium carbide is supported by cost. Although downstream enterprises plan to start maintenance recently, resulting in weaker demand and lower calcium carbide price, the decline is limited under the support of cost.

Comparison chart of calcium carbide (upstream raw material) – BDO price trend of business society:

In terms of methanol, the support of coal price for methanol production cost is weakened, and the short-term supply may increase, but the demand side changes little. The methanol market may fluctuate with the international crude oil price. Therefore, the cost side support of BDO is weakened.

Comparison chart of methanol (upstream raw material) – BDO price trend of business society:

The overall start-up in the downstream is still low. At the same time, some industries such as THF, PBT and GBL are restricted by the decline of raw materials and light demand, which aggravates the bearish mood in the floor. The downstream market is not willing to make up positions, maintain the follow-up of just needed contract orders, and be cautious in spot procurement and keep prices down.

In terms of devices, Xinjiang Tianye has an annual output of 210000 tons. The device was shut down for maintenance for one month on March 25; The second phase of the unit with an annual output of 204000 tons in lanshantun River, Xinjiang was restarted on March 25 and is now in stable operation; The 130000 T / a unit of Shaanxi Chemical Co., Ltd. plans to replace the catalyst at the end of April; Shaanxi black cat plant with an annual output of 60000 tons is expected to store and change agents in May; The unit with an annual output of 100000 tons in Dongyuan, Inner Mongolia was overhauled for ten days on April 6; The annual output of 150000 tons of plant in Panjin Dalian is expected to be overhauled in early April for one month; The unit with an annual output of 40000 tons in Meizhou Bay, Fujian will be shut down and relocated in early October 2021.

At present, the units of many major production enterprises are still in the maintenance stage, and there are many units that will replace the catalyst in the next step, and the overall supply is relatively reduced. There is also a situation of device maintenance in the downstream industry in the short term, with weak supply and demand. BDO analysts of business agency expect that the domestic BDO market is mainly sorted out.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 8990.00 yuan / ton on March 16 and 9280.00 yuan / ton on March 31, with a half month increase of 3.23%, an increase of 5.10% compared with March 1.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 11633.33 yuan / ton on March 16 and 11633.33 yuan / ton on March 31, with a half month increase of 1.00%, an increase of 1.15% compared with March 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 9616.67 yuan / ton on March 16 and 9850.00 yuan / ton on March 31, with a half month increase of 2.43%, an increase of 7.26% compared with March 1.

In late March, the polyethylene spot market as a whole showed a trend from weak to strong, and the increase of the three varieties was greater than the decrease. Among them, LLDPE and HDPE markets rose significantly at the end of the month. In the latter ten days of the year, the polyethylene market was mainly subject to narrow range shocks in the early stage. Affected by the epidemic situation in many regions in China, the logistics and transportation were blocked, and the downstream demand was restrained to a certain extent. However, the price support mentality of petrochemical enterprises has obviously brought some support to the market, and the market fluctuates in a narrow range. Until the end of the month, the international crude oil price returned to the upward trend, which brought some support to the cost side. In addition, the market is about to usher in centralized maintenance, and the supply side is expected to reduce. At the beginning of the month, the new price was significantly higher.

In late March, Liansu futures market fluctuated higher, which brought some support to the spot market. On March 30, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2205 was 9222, the highest price was 9369, the lowest price was 9176, the closing price was 9291, the former settlement price was 9244, the settlement price was 9256, up 471, or 0.51%, the trading volume was 473770, the position was 268114, and the daily position was increased by – 16435. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the return of international crude oil to the rising trend is good for the market mentality, and the market is about to usher in the peak maintenance season. The supply is reduced, the inventory of petrochemical enterprises is not high, the mentality is relatively strong, and the market demand is good in terms of demand. It is expected that the price of PE spot market may still rise in the short term.