According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market maintained a slight rise on April 28, with the average market price of 6252 yuan / ton, up 0.23% from the previous day and 31.37% year-on-year. PTA futures 2209 closed at 6154, up 44, or 0.72%.

Recently, domestic PTA plant restart and maintenance coexisted. Fuhai Chuang 4.5 million tons reduced the load to 50% in early April and began to increase the load on April 26. The 1.2 million ton PTA unit of Zhongtai Petrochemical was overhauled on March 25 and restarted around April 29. 1.2 million tons of hailun Petrochemical stopped on April 26, and the restart time is to be determined. One million tons of chuanneng chemical stopped on April 13 and is planned to restart around mid May. On the whole, the supply is still shrinking, and the operating load of corresponding PTA enterprises is still maintained at a low level. At present, the operating rate of PTA industry is 73%.

On April 27, the price of international crude oil futures rose slightly. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $102.02/barrel, up US $0.32 or 0.31%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $105.32/barrel, up US $0.33 or 0.31%. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report released on Wednesday showed that the growth of US commercial crude oil inventories was less than expected. The market is still dominated by concerns about tight global oil supply in the future.

With the gradual easing of the problem of poor logistics and the gradual resumption of work and production, the comprehensive startup rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has increased to around 57%. It is expected that the process of logistics recovery and resumption of work and production will be accelerated in the future, resulting in a certain degree of destocking of polyester industry chain inventory from bottom to top, and the smooth flow of orders and good transfer will drive the destocking of finished products inventory.

Business analysts believe that there is still strong support for crude oil prices, and the demand side has improved; In addition, under the background that PTA supply side is still limited, social inventory will further decline. On the whole, the fundamentals have improved, and the price focus of PTA is expected to rise further.

According to the data of business agency, on April 27, the average early price of silver market was 4958 yuan / kg, down 0.57%, down 0.95% from the average early price of 5005.33 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (April 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the early average price was 4770 yuan / kg, an increase of 3.94%.

On April 27, the spot market price of gold was 400.62 yuan / g, with a daily increase of 0.08%, up 1.43% from the early average price of 394.96 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (April 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the early average price was 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 7.59%.

Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year

 
In the long term, the price trend of precious metals tends to be similar, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

List of policies

1. Domestic news

The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo of 10 billion yuan on the 27th, and the bid winning interest rate was 2.10%, the same as before. As 10 billion yuan of reverse repo expired today, zero delivery and zero return were realized on the same day.

2. International news

According to CME’s “fed observation”: the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in May is 2.9%, the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points is 97.1%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points is 0%; By June, the probability of cumulative interest rate increase of 25 and 50 basis points is 0%, the probability of cumulative interest rate increase of 75 basis points is 0.5%, the probability of cumulative interest rate increase of 100 basis points is 19.1%, the probability of cumulative interest rate increase of 125 basis points is 80.4%, and the probability of cumulative interest rate increase of 150 basis points is 0%.

The monetary Committee of the Central Bank of Hungary announced an interest rate increase of 100 basis points on April 26, raising the country’s benchmark interest rate from 4.4% to 5.4%.

The Central Bank of Brazil raised Brazil’s inflation forecast for 2022 from 7.1% to 7.65% in the financial market forecast report on major economic indicators released on April 26. Financial markets generally believe that, as the main means to deal with inflation, the Central Bank of Brazil will raise the current annual benchmark interest rate of 11.75% to 13.25% by the end of 2022. In addition, the report also raised Brazil’s GDP growth forecast this year to 0.65% from 0.5% at the end of March.

Future forecast

In the long run, the monetary easing policy is gradually ebbing, and the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates is expected to suppress the price of precious metals. In the short term, the risk aversion of precious metals has gradually subsided, and the upward space of precious metal prices has been suppressed.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market rose slightly on April 26, with the average market price of 6196 yuan / ton, up 1.10% from the previous day and 35.40% year-on-year. PTA futures 2209 closed at 6078, up 46, or 0.76%.

The 1.2 million ton unit of hailun Petrochemical stopped on April 26, and the restart time is to be determined. Since April, the overhaul and production reduction of domestic PTA plants have increased. At present, the operating rate of the industry is around 70%. Although it rebounded slightly at the end of the month, it is still lower than 10% in the same period last year. The restart time of Honggang petrochemical, chuanneng chemical, Hengli petrochemical 1# and other units is to be determined. At the same time, I heard that Hainan Yisheng, Yisheng Dalian 2# and Ningbo Taihua plan to overhaul in May.

The price of international crude oil futures closed lower and the cost side was dragged down. As of April 25, the settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was reported as US $98.54/barrel, down US $3.53 or 3.46%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $102.32/barrel, down US $4.33 or 4.06%. At the macro level, the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hike is expected to depress the capital market, and the prices of venture capital such as stock market and crude oil are under pressure; More importantly, the restrictive measures related to the epidemic have exacerbated the market’s concern about the prospect of energy demand.

Although the loom and polyester start-up have picked up recently, due to the restrictions of logistics transportation and personnel flow, the downstream start-up is still low. The start-up of polyester industry is maintained at 77%, and the comprehensive start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is less than 55%. The improvement range of the demand side is limited, which is difficult to form a strong support for PTA.

Business analysts believe that at present, PTA maintenance efforts are large, and the spot supply balance is tight, which supports the price. However, if the weaving factory continues to reduce production before May Day, the pressure on the demand end of PTA is still large. In the future, we still need to pay attention to the stock replenishment market brought by the recovery of terminal demand and the fluctuation of crude oil market.

The monitoring shows that the natural rubber commodity index on April 25 was 36.36, down 0.95 points from yesterday, down 63.64% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 33.28% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber since April 2022

The monitoring shows that since April, the domestic natural rubber (standard I) in China’s East China market has continued to fluctuate and decline. On the 1st, the mainstream market reported about 13110 yuan / ton, and on the 25th, it reported 12260 yuan / ton, a decrease of 6.48%; Among them, since the mainstream market since this month is generally in a downward trend, the highest price point is 13110 yuan / ton on the 1st, and the lowest price point is 12260 yuan / ton on the 25th, with a maximum amplitude of 6.48%.

Figure 3: trend chart of mainstream international crude oil prices since April 2022

Macro analysis: on the macro level, the international crude oil futures prices fell first, then rose, and then decreased slightly. On the 22nd, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was reported at US $102.07/barrel, down US $1.72 or 1.7%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $106.15/barrel, down US $1.10 or 1.0%. The market is intertwined with long and short, the global economic recovery slows down, the Federal Reserve’s expectation of raising interest rates rises, and the domestic epidemic suppresses demand, and oil prices are under pressure. On the other hand, the EU is considering imposing an oil ban on Russia, tightening supply expectations and limiting the decline in oil prices.

Figure 4: Weekly K histogram of natural rubber market since April 2022

Industry analysis: macroscopically, domestic public health events have a wide impact, affecting the supply of raw materials, circulation and sales of finished products; Internationally, the International Monetary Fund lowered global economic growth. Supply side: according to the latest ANRPC report, the global output of natural rubber is expected to increase by 4.9% to 954000 tons in March; Among the production areas, India and Yunnan have fully opened cutting and increased production. Hainan has opened cutting at the end of April and early May, and entered the full rubber cutting period around mid May, which is expected to increase significantly. Demand side: the transportation of raw materials and finished products has been greatly affected by the recent public health events in China, and the local short-distance transportation in some provinces and cities has improved. It is reported that the operating rate of some tire enterprises in Shandong has rebounded for a short time. The data show that the operating load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong last week was 58.77%, an increase of 2.40 percentage points over the previous week and a decrease of 17.28 percentage points over the same period last year; The operating load of semi steel tire was 67.62%, down 0.99 percentage points from the previous week. Secondly, the demand for tire exports has declined. The current situation has affected the import and export trade of finished products, which is difficult to recover in the short term. Domestic shipments are blocked, and the inventory pressure of tire finished products continues to increase. According to a document issued by the Federation of passenger cars, the national passenger car market was affected by the downturn in consumption in 2022. In the first quarter, the national passenger car market retailed 4.915 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%, and the overall trend was lower than expected; The temporary standstill of the automobile industry chain caused by the epidemic has caused huge losses, and the impact of supply interruption of secondary parts will seriously affect the sales volume in the second quarter. Inventory: in the previous period, the inventory of Shanghai Rubber Futures in the week of 22nd increased slightly compared with the previous week, and the registered warehouse receipt decreased slightly; In Qingdao Free Trade Zone, affected by demand, the process of natural rubber inventory elimination is slow. Import and export: the data show that in March 2022, China imported 668000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), down 6% from 711000 tons in the same period in 2021. From January to March 2022, China imported 1.861 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 3.9% over 1.791 million tons in the same period in 2021.

Recent industry hot spots: 1. According to the latest report released by LMC automotive, the global sales of light vehicles decreased by 14% to 7.2 million in March 2022. The US market continues to face tight inventories and high vehicle transaction prices. Despite the impact of the epidemic blockade measures and the deterioration of the global market outlook, the sales volume in the Chinese market remains strong to some extent. The seasonally adjusted annual sales volume decreased to 75 million vehicles / year, and the average seasonally adjusted annual sales volume in the first quarter was 79 million vehicles / year. Global supply chain problems still limit the sales performance.

2. According to the document issued by the passenger Federation on April 19, the national passenger car market will be affected by the downturn of consumption in 2022. In the first quarter, the national passenger car market retailed 4.915 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%, and the overall trend was lower than expected. Among them, the sales volume of traditional fuel vehicles was 3.85 million, a year-on-year decrease of 18%, and the domestic retail sales of new energy vehicles was 1.07 million, a year-on-year increase of 146.6%, forming a K-shaped trend in the sales volume of traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles. About the prospect of the national passenger car market in the second quarter: the temporary standstill of the automobile industry chain caused by the epidemic is huge, and the impact of the supply interruption of secondary parts will seriously affect the sales volume in the second quarter.

3. According to the latest data released by the European Association of automobile manufacturers (ACEA), the sales of passenger cars in the EU fell by 20.5% year-on-year to 844187 in March. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine further exacerbated the continuous interruption of the supply chain and had a negative impact on automobile production. As a result, sales in most countries in the region recorded double-digit declines, including four major markets: Spain (- 30.2%), Italy (- 29.7%), France (- 19.5%) and Germany (- 17.5%). In the first quarter of 2022, the sales volume of passenger cars in EU decreased by 12.3% year-on-year to 2.25 million. All four major markets in the EU experienced declines: Italy (- 24.4%), France (- 17.3%), Spain (- 11.6%) and Germany (- 4.6%).

4. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the output of rubber tire casings in China in March 2022 was 81.263 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%. From January to March, the output of rubber tire casing decreased by 3.7% over the same period of last year to 206.323 million.

5. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on April 13, China imported 668000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in March 2022, down 6% from 711000 tons in the same period in 2021. From January to March 2022, China imported 1.861 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 3.9% over 1.791 million tons in the same period in 2021.

6. The latest March report released by ANRPC predicts that in 2022, the global output of natural rubber is expected to increase by 2.3% year-on-year to 14.292 million tons. In March, the global output of natural rubber is expected to increase by 4.9% to 954000 tons. In the first quarter, the global output of natural rubber is expected to decrease by 1.1% to 3.186 million tons; In 2022, the global consumption of natural rubber is expected to increase by 2.2% year-on-year to 14.643 million tons. In March, the global consumption of natural rubber is expected to increase slightly by 0.1% to 1.288 million tons. In the first quarter, the global consumption of natural rubber is expected to decrease by 0.8% to 3.549 million tons.

Future forecast: the expectation of global economic growth is lowered, domestic public health events are divergent at many points, China’s industrial product circulation system is blocked, raw material delivery pressure is high, car enterprises in some serious areas stop production, downstream demand slows down, the pressure of spot finished products continues to increase, the commencement of production enterprises is blocked, and the future market is expected to continue to be weak and volatile.

Data monitoring shows that the polyacrylamide commodity index on April 24 was 97.41, unchanged from yesterday, down 12.64% from the highest point of 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 17.52% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: data monitoring shows that on April 24, the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s domestic market was about 15942.86 yuan / ton, up 3.3% year-on-year. The production of the enterprise is relatively normal and the market inventory is sufficient; The downstream demand is general, the transaction is greatly affected by transportation capacity and cost, and the shipment pressure of enterprises is doubled; The transportation environment and demand situation are still severe, and the recent market of polyacrylamide has remained stable.

Key point analysis: at present, the inventory of manufacturers in the main production area is relatively sufficient and the demand is normal, but at the moment of strict control of public health events, the downstream demand is weak, and the cost of delivery and transportation of raw materials and finished products is greatly increased and difficult, so the transaction is very affected.

The raw material acrylonitrile, after being lowered by 50 yuan / ton last Friday, was again slightly lowered by 50 yuan / ton this Monday. The main market report was 11500-11560 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable. The domestic acrylonitrile units such as Haijiang and kruer in Shandong continued to shut down. The domestic acrylonitrile industry started around 70%, the downstream demand was weak, and the market offer was slightly lower. It is expected that the price of acrylonitrile in the later stage will be dominated by shock consolidation.

The market of raw acrylic acid increased this week. On April 22, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 14333.33 yuan / ton, up 3.39% from 13766.67 yuan / ton on Monday (18th). Recently, the raw material market has been shaken and sorted out, and the cost support is OK. The manufacturer’s equipment has been shut down for maintenance, the market supply has decreased, the downstream demand has improved, the enterprise sales are not under pressure, the market trading atmosphere has improved, and the tight supply has supported the steady rise of acrylic acid price.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic LNG was 6980 yuan / ton on April 22, up 176 yuan / ton, or 2.59%, compared with 6840 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and up 125.89% compared with the same period last year. At the beginning of the week, with the improvement of local logistics and transportation, the shipping atmosphere of liquid plants improved, and the price continued to rise above 7000 yuan, close to the cost line. However, the rise continued for a short time. Affected by negative factors such as the decline of inlet gas price, the weakening of off-season demand and the reduction of feed gas price, the domestic gas fell steadily in the middle and late of the week, and the price of imported gas also fell; At present, the demand is declining, the domestic liquid price is declining steadily, and there is only one week left from the May Day holiday. The shipment psychology of the liquid factory is obvious, and there is still downward expectation.

Future forecast: affected by the strict control of public health events, the problem of blocked market delivery and transportation will continue in the short term; Although the cost of raw materials fell slightly, the fuel price rose, the spot inventory in the market was sufficient, and the demand and transaction slowed down; The polyacrylamide market is expected to remain stable in the future, supplemented by small fluctuations.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of April 21, 2022, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 8300 yuan / ton. Compared with April 16 (the average reference price of n-propanol was 8400 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 100 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.19%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that the domestic n-propanol market was weak this week, and it operated steadily after falling. On the 18th of the week, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong fell slightly, and the ex factory price of n-propanol was reduced by about 100 yuan / ton. Then the market was weak, and the market was mainly sorted and operated. There was little change in the information on the site, and the downstream demand remained mainly for just needed procurement. On the 21st, some n-propanol suppliers in Shandong slightly reduced the price of n-propanol by about 100 yuan / ton. As of April 21, The domestic n-propanol market in Shandong is adjusted and operated in a narrow range. The price of n-propanol is around 7600-7900 yuan / ton. The domestic n-propanol market in Nanjing is stable temporarily, and the price of n-propanol is around 9000-9500 yuan / ton. Local dealers still have reservations about the price, and the price is not easy to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. Each region also has differences. It is mainly based on actual single negotiation, and we will wait and see the change of raw material price and shipment in the future.

In terms of upstream ethylene, entering this week, the overall external ethylene market showed a slight downward trend. On April 20, the ethylene market in Asia, CFR Northeast Asia quoted us $1306-1316 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia quoted us $1356-1366 / ton. The price of international crude oil futures fell slightly and the market was mixed. On the one hand, the market was still worried about future economic growth and oil demand; On the other hand, the future supply tightening trend is expected to play a role, and the oil price is in a stalemate. On April 20, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $102.19/barrel, down US $0.75 or 0.75%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $106.80/barrel, down US $0.45 or 0.42%. Affected by the decline of upstream crude oil price, the ethylene market in the later stage may mainly fall below.

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere of the n-propanol market is relatively stable, and the downstream demand continues to be just in need of purchase. The analysts of the business agency n-propanol believe that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market is mainly adjusted and operated in multiple ranges, and more attention needs to be paid to the specific changes in supply and demand.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market fell slightly today (April 20), with the average market price of 6264 yuan / ton, down 0.39% from the previous trading day and up 34.98% year-on-year. PTA futures 2209 closed at 6180, down 40, or 0.64%.

On April 19, the price of international crude oil futures fell sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $102.97/barrel, down US $5.24 or 4.84%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $107.25/barrel, down US $5.91 or 5.22%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its economic growth expectations and warned of rising inflation, which triggered demand concerns, while the higher dollar put pressure on oil price valuations.

In terms of PTA device, maintenance, restart and load reduction coexist. Today, Hengli Dalian 2.2 million ton unit was overhauled, and the restart time is to be determined. At present, the overall commencement rate of the industry is around 67%. Under the background of shrinking PTA supply and demand from April to may, it can still maintain the expectation of small stock removal.

The downstream polyester market was temporarily stable, and the offers of some mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were flat. Affected by the epidemic, the start-up of terminal textile enterprises is still under pressure, the weaving load has fallen sharply to about 51%, and the demand for PTA has fallen due to the start-up load of polyester being less than 80%.

Business analysts believe that crude oil fell slightly, weakening the cost support for PTA, and the downstream polyester demand for PTA continues to be weak, but the supply of PTA is expected to shrink, and the short-term PTA price is expected to maintain a strong adjustment.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market rebounded slightly. As of April 19, the average market price of domestic PTA in East China was 6288 yuan / ton, up 0.63% from the previous trading day and 36.87% year-on-year. PTA futures 2209 closed at 6218, up 10, or 0.16%.

International crude oil futures prices maintained a rising trend, and PTA cost support strengthened. On April 18, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $108.21/barrel, up US $1.26 or 1.18%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $113.16/barrel, up US $1.46 or 1.31%. When the Russian Ukrainian crisis tightened the expectation of crude oil supply in the future, the news of Libyan production interruption made the market worse, and the oil price was significantly supported.

In terms of maintenance and spot supply, the current PTA industry continues to reduce by 67%.

The downstream polyester market followed the rise of raw materials, and some mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang rose steadily. However, due to the impact of the epidemic, the weaving load of textile terminals fell sharply, and the operating load of polyester continued to drop to around 77%, so the demand for PTA fell.

Business analysts believe that the crude oil price has formed a positive support for the cost side of PTA, but the downstream polyester’s demand for PTA has weakened, and PTA is in a stalemate between cost support and declining demand. It is expected that the short-term PTA cost will still maintain strong adjustment.

Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic ABS market fell in mid April, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of April 18, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offer was about 14700 yuan / ton, up or down – 1.34% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the market price of styrene fluctuated and rose last week. The international crude oil price rebounded sharply, the styrene cost support was good, the port inventory went to the warehouse slightly, the public security incident affected the transportation, the transaction in the spot market was general, and the price fluctuated slightly. Generally speaking, if the raw materials rise next week, the styrene market will follow the rise.

The market of acrylonitrile fell last week. In terms of supply, some enterprises entered maintenance in the early stage, and the on-site spot quantity was reduced. Downstream demand performance is general, superimposed with the impact of health events on transportation, and the ex factory price of spot is under pressure.

Last week, the domestic butadiene market fell deeply, the market supply increased significantly, while the operating rate of downstream industries decreased, the contradiction between supply and demand fundamentals appeared, dragging the market down. After the decline of butadiene, some downstream bargain hunting, maintenance and export news boosted the mentality of some businesses and supported the stop of the decline and shock of butadiene market. However, the operating rate of downstream industries continues to decline, and the market is difficult to rebound for the time being.

In mid April, the overall support of the upstream three materials of ABS cost side was general. In terms of industry load, in the early stage, due to the maintenance of some domestic production lines, the operating rate of ABS enterprises decreased slightly. However, the manufacturer’s mentality is not strong. The reason is that the recent health events in China can not be ignored. The logistics and production in some areas are affected, which suppresses a certain amount of demand. The goods in the field are not smooth, and the offer falls. There has been no substantial progress in the situation between Russia and Ukraine in Eastern Europe. There are great differences in the remote upstream crude oil market, but the price is still high. At present, the main bad news in the market is the shrinking demand caused by the impact of health events on the downstream load.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS fell in mid April, and the trend of upstream three materials fell more or rose less, which is difficult to form a strong support for the cost side of ABS. Domestic spot supply is temporarily abundant, and the load of ABS enterprises is lower than that in the early stage. However, the demand follow-up contracted due to the impact of transportation, and the flow of goods on site was not smooth. It is expected that the spot market of ABS may continue to be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, toluene fell continuously this week. On April 8, the price was 7390 yuan / ton; On Friday (April 15), the price was 7180 yuan / ton, down 2.84% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 29.59%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Crude oil fell first and then rose this week, with an increase of more than 10% for three consecutive days. Although crude oil rose broadly and the cost side boosted the toluene Market, the buying in the toluene market was light, the downstream gasoline industry continued to decline, the logistics and transportation were blocked, the operators were pessimistic, and the price decreased with the main refineries.

In the external market, driven by the rise of crude oil, toluene in Asia rebounded after falling in the external market this week. On Thursday (April 14), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $1044 / ton, a year-on-year increase of US $15 / ton, or 1.46%.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil showed a trend of falling first and then rising this week, and the overall price rose. At the beginning of the week, the news that the International Energy Agency planned to release crude oil reserves on a large scale continued to affect the market, with European and American crude oil futures falling more than 4% in a single day. However, according to relevant news, Russian oil production decreased significantly, superimposed on the escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, crude oil rebounded rapidly, rising for two consecutive days, with an increase of more than 10%. As of April 14, Brent rose $8.92 / barrel, or 8.68%; WTI rose $8.69/barrel, or 8.84%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China fell this week. The price was 19250 yuan / ton on April 8 and 18825 yuan / ton on April 15, down 2.21% from last week and up 15.26% from the same period last year.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price was stable this week. On Friday (April 8), the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 9300 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and increased by 45.31% compared with the same period last year. PX prices rose slightly this week. As of the 14th, the closing prices in Asia were US $1182-1184 / T FOB Korea and US $1200-1202 / T CFR China.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong fell continuously this week. The price was 8628 yuan / ton on April 8 and 8341.2 yuan / ton on April 15, down 3.33% from last week and up 13.14% from the same period last year. Recently, the epidemic situation in some areas rebounded, people’s travel was limited, the demand for gasoline was relatively reduced, and the on-site price fell.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is full of uncertainty, and the European Union may introduce a new round of sanctions against Russia, driving the rise of oil prices. However, the release of reserve plans by the United States and the International Energy Agency may curb the rise in oil prices. The short-term oil price fluctuates violently. Continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the relationship between supply and demand of crude oil, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of US crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

The cost side support remains unchanged, but under the influence of domestic public health events, the logistics and transportation are blocked, the toluene used by refineries for gasoline is reduced, the export sales are increased, the toluene supply is increased, the downstream demand remains weak, the contradiction between supply and demand is increased, and the toluene may still fall. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline and diesel oil, as well as the impact of toluene plant dynamics, downstream plant dynamics and demand on toluene price.