According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 8830.00 yuan / ton on March 1 and 8990.00 yuan / ton on March 16, with an increase of 1.81% and 0.90% compared with February 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 11616.67 yuan / ton on March 1 and 11633.33 yuan / ton on March 16, with an increase of 0.14% and a decrease of 3.96% compared with February 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 9183.33 yuan / ton on March 1 and 9616.67 yuan / ton on March 16, with an increase of 4.72% and 7.25% compared with February 1.

In the first ten days of March, the polyethylene spot market as a whole showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing, and the increase of the three varieties was greater than the decrease. In March, driven by the strong rise of international crude oil in the early stage, the polyethylene spot market followed the rise, the ex factory prices of petrochemical enterprises rose one after another, the mentality of merchants was good, and the prices followed the rise. In the later stage, the international crude oil was weak, and the cost support was significantly weakened. In addition, in terms of market demand, the orders of downstream factories were weaker than those in previous years, the continuous rise of polyethylene market was insufficient, and the price ushered in a certain correction.

In early March, Liansu futures market rose first and then fell, bringing phased support to the spot market. On March 16, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2205 was 8766, the highest price was 8911, the lowest price was 8710, the closing price was 8865, the former settlement price was 8889, the settlement price was 8823, down 24, or 0.27%, the trading volume was 403326, the position was 267215, and the daily position was increased by – 1554. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, some petrochemical enterprises in PE market have maintenance expectations and supply reduction expectations. In terms of downstream demand, compared with previous years, the demand is weak, the downstream market entry enthusiasm is general, and the order follow-up is insufficient. In terms of cost, the decline of international crude oil price is bad market mentality, and it is expected that the PE spot market price may still weaken in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of March 15, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 19233.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.94% compared with last Tuesday, the same as that on February 15, and a year-on-year increase of 22.51% in a three-month cycle.

Epichlorohydrin market rose after weakening this week. Recently, the market of raw material propylene has gradually declined, the cost support of propylene method has gradually weakened, and the cost pressure of glycerol method is obvious. Under the cost support of last week and the manufacturer’s no inventory pressure, the market has pushed up. At the beginning of the week, the market operating rate is relatively low, the low out intention of cargo holders is not strong, the material flow and transportation in some areas are limited, the enthusiasm of downstream inquiry and procurement is not high, and the market atmosphere is light.

Upstream propylene, according to the bulk list data of business society, the reference price of propylene was 8695.67 on March 14, up 3.1% compared with March 1 (8433.83).

Downstream epoxy resin, according to the bulk list data of business society, the reference price of epoxy resin was 27425.00 on March 14, up 0.09% compared with March 1 (27400.00).

The epichlorohydrin analyst of business agency believes that at present, the price of raw material propylene is declining, the price of glycerol is relatively strong, the cost support still exists, there is no pressure on the supply side, the demand side is weak, and the logistics and transportation in some regions are limited. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will be light in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, on March 14, the average early price of silver market was 5099.33 yuan / kg, down 0.66%, up 3.47% from the average early price of 4928.33 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (March 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the early average price was 4770 yuan / kg, an increase of 6.90%.

On March 14, the spot market price of gold was 402.23 yuan / g, a daily drop of 0.64%, up 3.86% from the early average price of 387.29 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (March 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the early average price was 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 8.02%.

Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year

In the long term, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence, and the long-term trend is basically the same. Today, the price deviates.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

List of policies

The central bank today conducted a 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, and the bid winning interest rate was 2.1%, unchanged from the last time. Another 10 billion yuan of reverse repo expired today.

Future forecast

In the long run, the monetary easing policy is gradually ebbing, and the expectation of interest rate hike suppresses the continuous rise of precious metal prices. In the short term, precious metals are likely to continue to rise, but there is an upper limit.

Recent macro data of concern include:

Monday: to be determined the annual rate of China’s total electricity consumption in February and China’s total electricity consumption in February; 15: 45 France January trade account;

Tuesday: 15:00 UK January three-month ILO unemployment rate, UK February unemployment rate, UK February unemployment benefit applicants; 15: 45. Monthly CPI rate of France in February; 18: 00 German ZEW Economic Prosperity Index in March, euro zone ZEW Economic Prosperity Index in March, euro zone monthly industrial output rate in January; 20: 30 US February PPI monthly rate, us march New York Fed Manufacturing index;

Wednesday: API crude oil inventory in the week from 04:30 to March 11 in the United States; 20: 30. The monthly CPI rate of Canada in February, the monthly wholesale sales rate of Canada in January, the monthly retail sales rate of the United States in February, and the monthly import price index rate of the United States in February; 22:00 us march NAHB real estate market index and US January commercial inventory rate; 22:30 EIA crude oil inventory of the week from the United States to March 11 and EIA strategic oil reserve inventory of the week from the United States to March 11;

Thursday: from 02:00 to March 16, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision; 08:30 Australian February seasonally adjusted unemployment rate; 15: 00 Swiss February trade account; 18: 00 euro zone February CPI annual rate and euro zone February CPI monthly rate; 20: UK Central Bank’s interest rate decision from March 17; 20: 30. The number of initial jobless claims in the week from March 12, the annualized total number of new housing starts in February, the total number of construction permits in February, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index in March; 21:15 monthly industrial output rate of the United States in February; 22:30 EIA natural gas inventory of the week from the United States to March 11;

Friday: 07:30 Japan February core CPI annual rate; 11: The yield target of 10-year Treasury bonds from Japan to March 18 and the interest rate decision of the Central Bank of Japan to March 18; 18: 00 euro zone quarter adjusted trade account in January; 18: 30. The interest rate decision of the Central Bank of Russia from March 18; 20: 30 Canadian retail sales rate in January; 22:00 annualisation of the total number of existing home sales in the United States in February, and the monthly rate of leading indicators of the American Chamber of Commerce in February; Saturday: the total number of oil wells drilled in the week from 01:00 to March 18 in the United States.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, toluene rose broadly this week and the increase slowed down. On March 4, the price was 7950 yuan / ton; On Friday (March 11), the price was 8430 yuan / ton, up 6.04% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 43.43%.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, the international oil price plummeted after surging, but the price of toluene rose continuously and the increase slowed down. Although the downstream demand is limited and toluene mainly fluctuates with crude oil, under the pressure of high cost, the burden of toluene industry has decreased and the supply has decreased.

In terms of the external market, the external market plummeted after the Asian toluene shock this week. On Thursday (March 10), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $1044 / ton, a year-on-year decrease of US $33 / ton, or 3.06%.

In terms of crude oil, international oil prices fluctuated sharply this week. At the beginning of the week, the tension between Russia and Ukraine escalated, the United States and European allies considered the embargo on Russian oil, the fear of supply tension intensified, crude oil continued to rise, and European and American crude oil futures rose to the highest since July 2008. On Wednesday, crude oil plunged by more than 10% due to market speculation that the United Arab Emirates and Iraq supported OPEC to further increase production. As of March 11, Brent fell $5.44 / barrel, or 4.61%; WTI fell $6.35/barrel, or 5.49%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China stabilized after rising this week. The price was 19075 yuan / ton on March 4 and 19500 yuan / ton on March 11, up 2.23% from last week and 1.74% from the same period last year.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price rose broadly this week. On Friday (March 11), the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 9500 yuan / ton, up 11.76% from last week and 41.79% from the same period last year. Due to the rising downstream demand, the price trend of domestic p-xylene rose. As of the 10th, the closing price was US $1254-1256 / T FOB Korea and US $1272-1274 / T CFR China

In terms of gasoline, gasoline prices in Shandong rose first and then fell this week. The price was 9698.6 yuan / ton on March 4 and 9976 yuan / ton on March 11, up 2.86% from last week and 41.85% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the influence of geopolitical situation still exists, but the market is concerned about whether OPEC will increase production. The trend of crude oil is full of uncertainty, and the short-term oil price fluctuates violently. Continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the relationship between supply and demand of crude oil, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of US crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

The demand for downstream chemical products is weak, the negotiation is general, and the operator is cautious. However, due to the impact of cost, some units operate under reduced load, and the support of superimposed crude oil and gasoline for toluene still exists, so it is difficult for toluene to have a large decline in the short term. In the short term, the fluctuation of crude oil continues to follow the trend of toluene. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline and diesel oil, as well as the impact of toluene plant dynamics, downstream plant dynamics and demand on toluene price.

Zinc prices rose and fell sharply this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, the zinc market has been adjusted broadly this week, and the zinc price has risen and fallen sharply. As of March 10, the price of zinc was 25264 yuan / ton, down 1.97% from 25772 yuan / ton on March 4 last weekend. Zinc ingot inventory in zinc city increased this week, and the downward pressure on zinc price remains.

Zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai futures market increased sharply

Time Futures inventory Increase or decrease

February 28th . one hundred and six thousand nine hundred and forty-six .- one thousand six hundred and seven

March 1st one hundred and six thousand three hundred and twenty .- six hundred and twenty-six

March 2 one hundred and six thousand three hundred and twenty . 0

March 3 one hundred and nine thousand two hundred and fifty-eight . two thousand nine hundred and thirty-eight

March 4 one hundred and ten thousand nine hundred and forty-eight . one thousand six hundred and ninety

March 7 one hundred and fourteen thousand six hundred and fifty-one . three thousand seven hundred and three

According to the zinc ingot inventory data sheet of Shanghai futures market, as of March 7, the zinc ingot futures inventory of Shanghai futures market was 114651 tons. In March, the zinc ingot inventory increased greatly, the inventory of Shanghai futures market increased, the supply of zinc market was sufficient, and the pressure of zinc price decline remained.

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is intertwined

The deterioration of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine triggered concerns about the shortage of energy supply in Europe, and the zinc market rose sharply on Monday. On the evening of March 9, Ukrainian President Zelensky delivered a speech, saying that Ukraine was ready to make a compromise to end the war, and the Russian Ukrainian conflict was expected to turn for the better. Long and short forces intertwined, and the zinc market rose and fell sharply.

OPEC increases production

The UAE called on OPEC + to increase oil production, and then said it would be committed to complying with OPEC +’s monthly adjustment mechanism. Iraq said earlier that it could increase production if OPEC + asked. OPEC has increased production, the oil crisis has been alleviated, energy prices have fallen, the output of zinc market is expected to decline, the supply of zinc market may exceed expectations, and the upward momentum of zinc market has weakened.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that this week, the zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai futures market rose, the supply of zinc market was sufficient, and the downward pressure on zinc price remained. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is intertwined, OPEC has increased production, the European energy crisis has been alleviated, the cost of zinc smelting in Europe is expected to decline, the supply of zinc in Europe is expected to increase, the supply of global zinc market is expected to increase in the future, the demand of zinc Market is less than expected, the overall bad situation of zinc market increases, the good situation weakens, and the zinc price in the future may fall.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market rose sharply on March 9. The average market price in East China was 6555 yuan / ton, up 3.49% from the previous day and 42.33% year-on-year. The main futures 2205 closed at 6552 and settled at 6478, up 288 or 4.60%.

International crude oil futures prices continued to rise. On March 8, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $123.70/barrel, up US $4.3 or 3.6%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $127.98/barrel, up US $4.77 or 3.9%. The situation in Russia and Ukraine is turbulent, the sanctions imposed on Russia by the Western camp continue to escalate, the United States proposes to ban the import of Russian crude oil, and the United Kingdom also said to gradually stop the import of Russian crude oil by the end of the year. The tightening of global oil supply is expected to continue to heat up.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the 350000 ton PTA plant of Yizheng Chemical fiber was overhauled for about 20 days on March 1. Fuhai Chuang’s 4.5 million T / a PTA plant will reduce the load to 80% in early March 2022. Chuanneng chemical’s PTA plant with an annual output of 1 million tons was shut down for about one week on March 5. PTA maintenance increases or restart is delayed, and the current industry starts around 76%.

The cost pressure is prominent, and the downstream polyester market is bound to follow the rise of raw materials. However, at present, the wait-and-see mood of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is strong, and the price is generally flat today. Terminal textile enterprises hesitate to place orders due to high oil prices, high transportation costs and epidemic risk. At present, there are few orders in spring and summer, and the operating rate of the weaving industry increases slowly, maintaining around 65%.

Business analysts believe that under the low processing fee of PTA, the supply will shrink further and the downstream polyester market is not prosperous. Crude oil surged again, cost factors continue to dominate PTA market, and PTA short-term market is expected to remain upward.

Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, on March 8, the average early price of silver market was 5078.67 yuan / kg, down 2.72%, up 3.05% from the average early price of 4928.33 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (March 1); Compared with the early trading average price of 4770 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), an increase of 6.47%.

On March 8, the spot market price of gold was 404.90 yuan / g, up 1.21% daily, up 4.55% from the early average price of 387.29 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (March 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the early average price was 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 8.74%.

Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year

In the long term, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence, and the long-term trend is basically the same. Today, the price deviates.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

List of policies

The central bank today conducted a 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, and the bid winning interest rate was 2.1%, unchanged from the last time. Another 50 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired today.

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on March 7, in the first two months of this year, China’s total import and export value increased by 13.3% year-on-year and 15.9% in dollar terms.

The strong rebound of precious metals in February was mainly due to geopolitics

Recently, the Ukrainian Russian conflict has led to an increase in risk aversion of international capital and pushed the price of noble metals.

List of funds

In February, the net inflow of global gold ETFs was 35.3 tons (about US $2.1 billion, and the scale of asset management increased by 1.0%); Among them, 21.3 tons (about US $1.3 billion, 1.2%) flowed into North America; European inflow of 21.4 tons (about US $1.3 billion, 1.4%); Asia outflows 7.4 tons (about US $452 million, – 5.8%); Other regions: the flow was flat in February.

Future forecast

In the long run, the monetary easing policy is gradually ebbing, and the expectation of interest rate hike suppresses the continuous rise of precious metal prices. In the short term, precious metals are likely to continue to rise, but there is an upper limit.

This week, the domestic EVA market continued to rise significantly. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic EVA was 19400.00 yuan / ton on February 28 and 20666.67 yuan / ton on March 7, with an increase of 6.53% during the week and 15.89% higher than that on February 1.

As of March 7, the ex factory quotation of EVA is as follows:

product . manufactor . model. Ex factory price

EVA . yanshan petrochemical . 18J3 . 20500 yuan / ton

EVA . Beijing Organic . Y2022 . 20000 yuan / ton

EVA . BASF Yangzi V5110J . 21500 yuan / ton

This week, the domestic EVA market price continued to rise. The ex factory prices of petrochemical enterprises are still rising, supporting the market mentality. With the resumption of downstream terminals, the market demand has increased. In addition, the demand for photovoltaic materials is strong, and the spot supply in the market is still tight. In addition, the rise of international crude oil has brought strong support to the market, with obvious market positive factors, firm business mentality and high prices.

At present, the international crude oil price has soared, and the cost side has brought some support to the market. The inventory of petrochemical enterprises is not under pressure, and they begin to enter the maintenance in the later stage, and the market supply is expected to decrease. It is expected that the price of EVA market may still rise in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, pure benzene fell narrowly in the first half of the week and rebounded broadly in the second half of the week. On February 25, the price of pure benzene was 7850-8450 yuan / ton (the average price was 7940 yuan / ton). On Friday (March 4), the price of pure benzene was 8400-8550 yuan / ton (the average price was 8460 yuan / ton). The average price increased by 520 yuan / ton, or 6.55%, compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 26.84%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Due to the loss of profits of downstream main products, some units have reduced the load and stopped, and the demand for pure benzene is insufficient; Shandong local refining enterprises generally take goods; Superimposed on the weak price of styrene, pure benzene weakened slightly at the beginning of the week. In the second half of the week, affected by the escalation of geopolitical tensions, crude oil soared and the external market rose, driving the domestic pure benzene market to rise.

This week, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene twice, a total of 600 yuan / ton to 8500 yuan / ton.

In the external market, affected by the sharp rise of crude oil, the Asian pure benzene in the external market rose sharply this week. On Thursday (March 3), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was US $1237 / ton, with a year-on-year increase of US $139 / ton, or 12.66%; The reference import price in East China was US $1250 / ton, with a year-on-year increase of US $128 / ton, or 11.41%.

In terms of crude oil, geopolitical tensions dominated, and crude oil soared this week. As of March 4, Brent rose $20.18 / barrel, or 20.61%; WTI rose $24.09/barrel, or 26.3%.

Downstream: styrene: the cost side gives strong support to styrene. This week, styrene fell first and then rose broadly. The price was 9000 yuan / ton on February 25 and 9480 yuan / ton on March 4, up 5.33% from last week and 0.85% from the same period last year.

Aniline: the demand is insufficient, and the weakness stabilized after the decline of aniline this week. In terms of units, Jinling and Jinmao units stopped this week, Tianji operated at half load, and the supply in the North decreased more. On February 25, the price in Shandong was 13000-13200 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 13800 yuan / ton; On March 4, the price in Shandong was 12500-12700 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 12800 yuan / ton, down 5% from last week and up 11.11% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the geopolitical situation continues to affect international oil prices. Continue to pay attention to the relationship between crude oil supply and demand, geopolitical impact, global epidemic, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of US crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

Downstream: the downstream main product styrene: the market supply is still abundant, the downstream is expected to maintain rigid demand, and the supply and demand side continues to be deadlocked. Styrene is likely to follow the trend of crude oil. On the whole, if the raw material level is strong or continues to rise next week, the styrene market will continue to consolidate and rise.

At present, the rise of pure benzene is mainly driven by the cost side, and the demand side is insufficient. If crude oil continues to rise, pure benzene may rise; If crude oil falls, pure benzene may fall rapidly. Pay attention to the downstream market, device dynamics, domestic pure benzene device dynamics, and the impact of crude oil, external market and other trends on the price of pure benzene.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, titanium dioxide prices remained stable this week. The average price of titanium dioxide in China is 20800 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

The titanium dioxide market is basically stable this week. Super color and Zhengyuan Technology issued a price increase letter, raising 600 yuan / ton, and the prices of other manufacturers have not been stable for the time being. At present, the titanium dioxide market is still dominated by export, and manufacturers mainly issue early orders. There are many traders, and the domestic market is relatively stable. There are many traders, and the domestic market is more cautious. Up to now, the factory quotation including tax of domestic rutile titanium dioxide is 20000-21600 yuan / ton; The ex factory quotation of anatase titanium dioxide including tax is between 18000-19500 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price is subject to single negotiation.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the market price of titanium concentrate in Panxi increased this week. The market situation of titanium ore is good, the supply of goods in China mineral market is tight, and the inventory is low. The downstream titanium dioxide enterprise market mainly purchases on demand. At present, the ten day market of titanium ore is increasing, manufacturers send more early orders, and the overall market focus is upward. Up to now, the tax free quotation of 38 grade titanium ore is about 1550 yuan / ton, that of 46 grade 10 titanium ore is about 2400-2450 yuan / ton, and that of 47 grade 20 ore is about 2450-2550 yuan / ton. In the short term, the price of Panxi titanium concentrate will continue to be high and firm, and the actual transaction price will be negotiated.

In terms of sulfuric acid, up to now, the average price of domestic sulfuric acid is 788.33 yuan / ton. The domestic sulfuric acid market price fell slightly, down 0.63% from 793.33 on February 24. From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market has gradually increased recently, and the cost support has been strengthened. However, the downstream formic acid market was mainly sorted out, the downstream bromine market fell slightly, the downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid was general, and the product trend fell under the contradiction between supply and demand.

3、 Future forecast

Titanium dioxide analysts of business society believe that at present, the stable operation of titanium dioxide market is the main factor. In terms of raw materials, the price of titanium concentrate is relatively strong and upward, and the market of sulfuric acid decreases slightly, which can be supported. International titanium dioxide enterprises sent a letter to raise the price of titanium dioxide in April, and some domestic enterprises have sent a letter to raise the price of titanium dioxide. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will run steadily and well in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be mainly discussed.