1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on March 1 was 13587 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on March 30 was 13600 yuan / ton, up 0.09% this month. The highest price in the month is March 10. The average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid is 15200 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic caprolactam market rose and fell sharply this month, and the price first rose sharply and then fell sharply. In the first ten days of March, due to the sharp rise of crude oil price, the trend of raw material pure benzene increased significantly, and the caprolactam market rose continuously. In the middle of March, the market of caprolactam fell after the sharp rise in the early stage, and the price fell rapidly. Due to the continuous decline of raw material prices, the cost support of caprolactam is insufficient. Cautious floor trading, tight supply and unstable market mentality. In late March, caprolactam was slightly shaken and put into operation. The positive support of crude oil for pure benzene still exists, pure benzene continues to fluctuate with the trend of crude oil, and the terminal demand follows up generally. Some caprolactam enterprises adjusted their prices slightly, and most enterprises mainly stabilized their prices. As of March 30, the price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid was 14400 yuan / ton. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 14400 yuan / ton, 300000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical is 14400 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. Shandong Hualu Hengsheng caprolactam bulk water price is 14200 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer’s unit capacity is 300000 tons / year. It is accepted and sent to East China. Shandong Luxi Chemical caprolactam liquid price is 13300 yuan / ton, the factory leaves the factory in cash, and the manufacturer’s production capacity is 300000 tons.

The raw material pure benzene rose broadly in the first ten days of this month, fell back from the high in the middle of this month, and fell back after rebounding in the second ten days of this month. Due to geopolitical factors, crude oil continued to rise as a whole this month. Driven by the rising cost, the price of pure benzene rose by more than 10% in early March. However, crude oil continued to rise, pure benzene and its downstream profit space were compressed, some units stopped to reduce the burden, and the demand for pure benzene was weak. Superimposed on the impact of domestic public health events, the transportation in many places is limited, the inventory of enterprises in some regions is accumulated, and the price drops rapidly from a high level. Late this month, in the face of market concerns about the increased risk of oil supply, crude oil prices rose again, and pure benzene rebounded with crude oil. However, weak demand and blocked transportation limited the increase.

This month, the domestic market of downstream PA6 rose and then fell, and the spot prices of various brands rose first and then fell. The operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant is generally stable at more than 70% this month. The on-site trading situation this month is general. The low-end supply of goods in the whole month is acceptable, the inventory position of enterprises and sellers is not high, and the mentality is strong. The logistics obstruction in many places caused by health events in the month has not ended, which also affects the trading of some PA6. At present, PA6 is porous and intertwined, and the market situation is biased towards cost side guidance.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business society believe that at present, the raw materials are still at a high level, the cost pressure of caprolactam is large, the follow-up of terminal demand is general, and the demand is weak. It is suggested to pay attention to the market trend and demand changes of raw materials. The caprolactam market is expected to be stable in the short term.

On the 29th, the aluminum price was stable

According to the data of business agency, on March 29, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 22996.67 yuan / ton, with a daily increase of 0.26% and a year-on-year increase of 32.09%, an increase of 1.94% compared with the average market price of 22560 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (3.1); Compared with the average market price of 20370 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1), an increase of 12.89%.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen by 5.13% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 23.02% recently.

Brief description of Fundamentals

1. Inventory data:

The mainstream social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots was relatively stable, and the domestic mainstream social inventory was 1067000 tons as of March 28;

2. Overview of downstream aluminum alloy import and export:

Downstream aluminum alloy in the first two months of 2022, China imported 208400 tons of unwrought aluminum alloy. China imported 116500 tons of unwrought alloy aluminum in January, a month on month decrease of 9.41% and a year-on-year increase of 39.35%. China imported 91900 tons of unwrought alloy aluminum in February, a month on month decrease of 21.12% and a year-on-year increase of 60.38%.

3. Overview of supply and demand:

On the whole, the overseas aluminum ingot production reduction is still expected, and the downstream operating rate has been affected by the recent public health events in China.

Future forecast

It is expected that the aluminum price will continue to be suppressed by the 23000 mark. Under the long and short game, the upward space will narrow and the stable and volatile operation will prevail.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price trend of cryolite in Henan was stable this week. On March 28, the average market price in Henan was 7475 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with that at the end of last week, and the price increased by 3.10% month on month.

quotations analysis

Domestic cryolite market is on the sidelines. During the week, the quotation of main enterprises in Henan is stable, the supply of raw materials is tight, and the enterprise mentality is strong. In addition, due to environmental protection factors, enterprises mainly use natural gas. However, under the influence of the current international situation, the price of natural gas is high, the cost of cryolite enterprises increases, and the downstream demand is weak and stable. Most enterprises hold a wait-and-see mentality, and the market quotation remains high and stable. As of March 25, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong is 7000-7600 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Henan is 6700-8500 yuan / ton. The price remains unchanged within the week.

The market of upstream soda ash is temporarily stable. As of March 25, the average market price is about 2600 yuan / ton, and the price is flat within the week. This week, soda ash is temporarily stable. Downstream purchases are cautious and have resistance to high priced soda ash. They mainly purchase on demand, the manufacturers ship flexibly, and the market transaction is weak.

Downstream, the aluminum market fluctuated and rose. On March 25, the aluminum price was 23000 yuan / ton, down 2.13% during the week. The rise of overseas energy prices raised the cost of electrolytic aluminum, adding that the aluminum destocking was obvious this week, the aluminum price rose during the week, and the aluminum market was sorted upward.

Future forecast

The operating rate of domestic cryolite market is low, the downstream demand is stable, the enterprise cost pressure is strong, and the quotation is mainly supported by the upstream raw material market. The cryolite market continues to operate at a high level, with specific attention to the downstream demand.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic PC market fell this week, and the spot price decreased as a whole. As of March 25, the reference offer of PC sample enterprises of business society was about 22700 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 1.49% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the bisphenol a market continued its downward trend this week. At present, the terminal demand is sluggish and difficult to change, and the market atmosphere is cold. Under the pressure of the cargo holders, they offered to make profits. They heard that the inquiry intention on the floor was low, and the differences between the two sides were obvious. The downstream large enterprises are mostly contract based, and other spot goods are difficult to supplement. The on-site transaction volume is obviously insufficient. It is expected that the short-term bisphenol a market may be difficult to warm up.

The upstream bisphenol a market fell, weakening the cost side support of PC. In terms of industry load, in the early stage, some domestic PC enterprises returned to work and production after maintenance. At present, although the overall load change is limited, there are new production lines in the field, and the benefits at the supply end have been diluted. Crude oil in the far upstream rose again after falling. There has been no substantial progress in tensions in Eastern Europe, but the downward transmission of benefits is poor. In addition, the health incident has rebounded in some parts of China, the mentality of domestic operators has weakened, market transportation and demand have been affected at the same time, merchants’ offer has been reduced, and shipments tend to follow the market.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the domestic PC market fell this week, the upstream bisphenol a market fell, and the cost side has weak support for PC. In terms of supply, the on-site supply of goods increased slightly. At present, the demand side mainly takes the goods contract, and the trading is cold. In addition, some regions are restricted by health events, and the market momentum is lower. It is expected that the spot price may continue to be weak in the short term.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of March 24, 2022, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 8733 yuan / ton. Compared with March 1 (the average reference price of n-propanol was 8166 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 567 yuan / ton, or 6.94%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that since March, the domestic n-propanol market has shown a trend of rising first and then falling slightly. Compared with the beginning of the month, the overall increase of n-propanol market in March is still close to 7%.

In early March, with the advent of the traditional peak season, the downstream demand gradually recovered, the demand side support for n-propanol improved, and the market atmosphere was driven by the sharp rise in international crude oil prices. In addition, in terms of raw materials, the gradual rise of ethylene market gave n-propanol cost support increased. Shandong n-propanol factories and n-propanol suppliers raised the price of n-propanol one after another. On March 4, the market price of alcohol in Shandong was around 7600-8200 yuan / ton, Within four days, the increase refers to 400-600 yuan / ton. Subsequently, the market of n-propanol continued to be strengthened by the cost support, and the market price of n-propanol continued to rise to the high end. As of March 15, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong was around 8400-8900 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of n-propanol in Nanjing was around 9000-9500 yuan / ton, and the increase of n-propanol in early March was 11.43%.

In late March, the domestic n-propanol market fell. Under the high price, the downstream demand for n-propanol weakened, the on-site wait-and-see mood increased, and the transaction was cautious. In addition, the raw material ethylene market also weakened, and the cost support was loose. From the 19th, the n-propanol market in Shandong Province showed a high downward trend, and the n-propanol market price in Shandong Province continued to decline. As of March 24, The market price of n-propanol in Shandong is around 8100-8600 yuan / ton, with a reduction range of 200-300 yuan / ton. In late March, n-propanol decreased by 4%. Local dealers still have reservations about the price, and the price is not easy to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. Each region also has differences. It is mainly based on actual single negotiation, and we will wait and see the change of raw material price and shipment in the future.

Ethylene market fluctuated in the US dollar on March 23, while ethylene market in the US dollar rose in the upper reaches of the US dollar on March 24, while the US dollar rose in the US dollar. So far, ethylene market has risen in the US dollar on March 23. Ethylene market in Asia, CFR Northeast Asia quotation is US $1346-1356 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia quotation is US $1346-1356 / ton. According to the data of business agency, on March 23, the reference price of ethylene (outer disk) was 1511.75 US dollars / ton, an increase of 20.29% compared with March 1 (1256.75 US dollars / ton).

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

At present, near the end of the month, the trading atmosphere of n-propanol market is general, and the downstream demand just needs to be purchased. The n-propanol data division of business society believes that in the short term, China’s domestic n-propanol market will mainly adjust the narrow range, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

Price trend:

According to the business block list data, this week domestic ABS market volatility slightly increased, the spot price of each brand rises and then downgrades. As of March 18, the average price of mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 14750 yuan / ton, up or down + 4.61% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the spot market of styrene accelerated its decline this week. International crude oil futures fell sharply, the market focus of raw material pure benzene was lowered, and the cost support of styrene was poor. At present, the spot supply is relatively abundant, the downstream is dominated by digestion contracts, and the spot transaction is weakened. The styrene market is expected to fall mainly in the short term.

The recovery of acrylonitrile market was disrupted this week, and the current cost side support of acrylonitrile is weakened. Although there are maintenance plans for some enterprises in the industry, the period of rapid production of the industry has not ended, and the operating rate of the industry in the early stage is high, there is no benefit on the supply side, and it is heard that the inventory of enterprises has increased. The situation of midstream merchants going to the warehouse has also weakened, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term.

The trend of domestic butadiene market fluctuated this week. Under the high support of the external market, the prices of domestic mainstream suppliers have increased continuously, which has boosted the mentality of some merchants. However, the sharp decline of crude oil during the week weakened the cost support. In addition, as the price of butadiene rose to a high level, the cost and profit of downstream industries were under pressure, the operating rate of some industries decreased, the drag demand for butadiene also weakened, and the rise slowed down. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will be dominated by high-level consolidation in the short term.

This week, the market of ABS upstream three materials fell more or rose less, and the cost side support is general. In terms of industry load, the operating rate of domestic ABS enterprises is high, the overall supply is high and the prognosis is abundant. There is pressure on the inventory position of domestic ABS enterprises and PetroChina merchants. At present, the main downstream is the home appliance industry. At the same time, the demand is phased and large, and the operating rate and consumption of corresponding enterprises have also increased, which has a certain support for ABS. However, the domestic rebound in health events caused resistance at the logistics level, and the trading was restricted to some extent, which affected the increase of ABS spot. In addition, the previous tension in Eastern Europe eased this week, bulk commodities in the petrochemical chain fell with crude oil, and market negative factors dragged down ABS.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: the spot market of ABS fluctuated and rose slightly this week, and the trend of three upstream materials rose and fell, which generally supported the cost side of ABS. Domestic spot supply continues to be abundant, and the load of ABS enterprises is at a high level. In terms of demand, household electrical appliance enterprises have a large volume in stages, but the on-site trading is restricted by logistics, coupled with the slow digestion of social inventory. It is expected that the increase of ABS spot market may be blocked in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of March 22, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 12033.33 yuan / ton, down 0.69% from last Wednesday (March 16), up 1.69% from February 22, and down 10.20% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Recent propylene oxide Market Volatility finishing. Recently, the price of raw material propylene has declined, the cost support has gradually weakened, a number of units on the supply side have reduced the negative operation, and the demand side is cold. In addition, the logistics in some regions is limited, and the market is weak and deadlocked. At present, the manufacturer’s inventory pressure is controllable, the demand has gradually recovered, the market atmosphere is acceptable, and the price focus has moved upward. On the 22nd, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 11700-11800 yuan / ton.

For upstream propylene, on March 21, the reference price of propylene was 8259.00, a decrease of 2.07% compared with March 1 (8433.83).

For downstream propylene glycol, on March 21, the reference price of propylene glycol was 14700.00, a decrease of 8.32% compared with March 1 (16033.33). On the 21st, the domestic propylene glycol market was stable and weak, running downward, logistics and transportation were limited, propylene glycol shipments were not smooth, and new orders were limited.

The propylene oxide analyst of business society believes that the current raw material propylene price is weak and the cost support is limited. At present, the supply side supports the market and the demand gradually recovers. It is expected that the propylene oxide market may wait and see the strong operation in the short term.

1、 Price data

As of March 20, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 9325.00 yuan / ton, down 4.19% from 9733.25 yuan / ton on March 14. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 9200-9500 yuan / ton.

As of March 20, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 9285.00 yuan / ton, down 4.96% from 9770.00 yuan / ton on March 14. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 9100-9300 yuan / ton.

On March 20, the naphtha commodity index was 115.09, unchanged from yesterday, down 5.38% from the highest point of 121.64 in the cycle (2022-03-10), and up 172.47% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha continued to fall this week. At present, the demand for olefins and aromatics in naphtha terminals is weak, affected by public health events in many places in China, the transportation is limited, the shipment of refineries is blocked, and refineries cut prices for shipment.

Upstream: international crude oil prices rebounded after falling. The data released by the National Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that US crude oil inventories rose for the first time in three weeks, and the market was worried that high oil prices would suppress demand. At the beginning of this round of price adjustment cycle, the national crude oil administration has a plan to release crude oil reserves. In addition, American energy enterprises increased the number of active oil and gas drilling rigs this week, which is the ninth week in 10 weeks. Due to Russia’s military action against Ukraine, the crude oil price reached the highest level since 2008. There was some good news in the later Russian Ukrainian negotiations, and the international oil price decreased significantly. The organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and its allies agreed to gradually increase production by 400000 barrels per day per month. Despite the soaring oil price, the organization refused to accelerate the pace of production increase. The sharp rise and fall of international oil prices during this cycle was mainly due to the geopolitical situation. From tension to moderation, oil prices experienced sharp rise and fall.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business agency, after the wide decline of toluene this week, the price rebounded on Friday. The price was 8430 yuan / ton on March 11 and 8000 yuan / ton on March 18, down 5.1% from last week. The price of mixed xylene fell broadly this week and rebounded on Friday. The price was 8750 yuan / ton on March 11 and 8190 yuan / ton on March 18, down 6.4% from last week. In the PX market, the market price trend of p-xylene fell this week. As of the weekend, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 9300 yuan / ton, down 2.11% from 9500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

3、 Future forecast

According to the energy analyst of business agency, the high international crude oil price supports the naphtha market. At present, the demand for olefins and aromatics in the naphtha terminal is weak, affected by public health events in many places in China, transportation is limited, refinery shipments are blocked, refinery shipments are reduced, and it is expected that the recent refining of naphtha may be dominated by consolidation.

1、 Price trend

The price of toluene rebounded on Friday after a wide decline this week, according to the bulk list data of business society. On March 11, the price was 8430 yuan / ton; On Friday (March 18), the price was 8000 yuan / ton, down 5.1% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 38.47%.

2、 Analysis and comment

In the first half of the week, the international crude oil fell continuously and broadly, and the cost support weakened; Superimposed on the impact of national public health events, transportation in some areas was blocked, toluene market transactions were limited, the mentality of operators was empty, and the price fell with crude oil. Crude oil rebounded broadly on Thursday, with a one-day increase of more than 8%. The market was rising and confidence was rekindled. The offer followed the rise of Sinopec prices.

In terms of external trading, toluene in Asia fell in a wide range this week. On Thursday (March 17), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $979 / ton, a year-on-year decrease of US $65 / ton, or 6.23%.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil rebounded broadly in a single day after falling continuously this week. At the beginning of the week, although the tension between Russia and Ukraine remained, the supply concerns eased. In addition, the market was worried that the excessively rising oil price would affect the demand and economy, and the oil price continued to decline. However, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is uncertain, and the International Energy Agency predicts that Russian oil production may decrease by 3 million barrels / day from April. Concerns about reduced supply have boosted the broad rebound of international oil prices in a single day. As of March 18, Brent fell $4.74 / barrel, or 4.21%; WTI fell $4.63/barrel, or 4.23%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China fell narrowly this week. The price was 19500 yuan / ton on March 11 and 19225 yuan / ton on March 18, down 1.41% from last week and up 2.99% from the same period last year.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price fell this week. On Friday (March 18), the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 9300 yuan / ton, down 2.11% from last week and up 38.81% from the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong rebounded slightly after falling this week. The price was 9976 yuan / ton on March 11 and 9616.2 yuan / ton on March 18, down 3.61% from last week and 36.54% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, there is still uncertainty about the future trend of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the risk of oil price rise still exists, and the short-term oil price fluctuates violently. Continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the relationship between supply and demand of crude oil, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of US crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

Supported by the high price of crude oil, the market sentiment of supporting the price and reluctant to sell remains unchanged; However, domestic public health incidents will still affect toluene shipments. On the whole, the trend of toluene may be different, but it still follows the fluctuation of crude oil as a whole. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline and diesel oil, as well as the impact of toluene plant dynamics, downstream plant dynamics and demand on toluene price.

Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, the average price of silver market in early trading on March 17 was 5076 yuan / kg, with a daily increase of 1.36% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.3% compared with the same period last year; Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the month (March 1), the early average price was 4928.33 yuan / kg, up 3%; Compared with the early trading average price of 4770 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), an increase of 6.42%.

On March 17, the spot market price of gold was 394.68 yuan / g, with a daily increase of 0.89%, up 1.91% from the early average price of 387.29 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (March 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the early average price was 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 5.99%.

Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year

In the long term, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the rise and fall ranges are slightly different.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

The Fed raised interest rates on the ground, and the price of precious metals rose instead of falling

At 2 a.m. Beijing time on March 17, the open market committee of the Federal Reserve announced that it would raise the target range of the federal funds rate to 0.25% – 0.5%, which is the first time the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates since December 2018; The median value of the Fed’s dot matrix shows that the Fed is expected to raise interest rates seven times in 2022, with the interest rate at 1.9% by the end of 2022 and 2.8% by the end of 2023.

US inflation remains high. The market had full psychological expectations for the fed to raise interest rates. In order to bring inflation back to 2%, the Fed raised interest rates by 25 points, which did not exceed market expectations.

Future forecast

Although the risk aversion caused by geopolitical factors such as the situation in Ukraine began to subside, the Central Bank of Russia said that from the 15th, it had suspended the purchase of gold from credit institutions, but the uncertainty was still strong. Before the situation was unclear, the good support for the risk aversion of precious metals still existed.

In the long run, the monetary easing policy is gradually ebbing, and the expectation of interest rate hike suppresses the continuous rise of precious metal prices.

Recent macro data of concern include:

Japan’s core CPI rate: February 30, 2007; 11: The yield target of 10-year Treasury bonds from Japan to March 18 and the interest rate decision of the Central Bank of Japan to March 18; 18: 00 euro zone quarter adjusted trade account in January; 18: 30. The interest rate decision of the Central Bank of Russia from March 18; 20: 30 Canadian retail sales rate in January; 22:00 annualisation of the total number of existing home sales in the United States in February, and the monthly rate of leading indicators of the American Chamber of Commerce in February; Saturday: the total number of oil wells drilled in the week from 01:00 to March 18 in the United States.