1、 Price trend

 

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According to the bulk list data of business society, aniline rose broadly after the festival. On January 30, the price in Shandong was 12400-12600 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12800 yuan / ton; On February 11, the price in Shandong was 13000-13200 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 13800 yuan / ton, up 5.82% from before the festival and 61.94% from the same period last year.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

On the cost side, pure benzene: during the festival, crude oil rose widely, driving the general rise of energy related commodities. The cost side was stronger, the superposition of good enterprise shipments, the rise of downstream styrene, multiple positive boost, and the positive rise of pure benzene. However, the spot transaction of styrene downstream was insufficient, and there were new plant output within the superposition week. The news was bad and the price fell. Crude oil and styrene prices both weakened, pure benzene operators took profits and prices fell rapidly. On Friday (February 11), the price of pure benzene was 7903-8450 yuan / ton (the average price was 8130 yuan / ton), and the average price increased by 440 yuan / ton or 5.72% compared with that before the festival; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 52.25%.

 

Nitric acid: the price of nitric acid stabilized this week. On Friday (February 11), the domestic production price of nitric acid was 2200 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the price before the festival and increased by 10% compared with the same period last year.

 

PVA 0588 ( PVA BP05)

Within the week, the maintenance plan of Shandong Jinling aniline plant was put into operation. One 100000 t / a aniline plant was shut down for maintenance on the 10th, and the other 100000 t / a aniline plant was planned to shut down on the 16th. Coupled with the half load operation of Shanxi Tianji, there is less spot supply in East China, and the supply reduction of aniline Market is obvious in the later stage. The demand for aniline in the downstream decreased due to the Spring Festival, but the demand for aniline is expected to increase due to the willingness of some downstream to store goods. The supply is reduced, the demand may increase, and the price of raw materials is rising, the support is strong, and the price of aniline continues to rise after the festival.

 

3、 Future expectations

 

In terms of cost and pure benzene, downstream styrene weakened due to new addition. Although pure benzene followed the decline, the demand was supported to some extent. In addition, the short-term cost is still at a high level and has a good support for pure benzene. It is expected that pure benzene will be consolidated in shock next week. In terms of nitric acid, manufacturers are bullish on the future market of nitric acid because of the increase in demand.

 

The high cost price supports, the supply of aniline is expected to tighten, and there are goods preparation expectations in some downstream. On the whole, the storage of aniline continues to rise. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw materials, downstream demand and the impact of the dynamics of aniline plant on the price of aniline.

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Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

 

PVA 2088 (PVA BP20)

According to the data of business agency, on February 10, the average price of silver market in early trading was 4776 yuan / kg, up 0.31% on a daily basis, down 0.35% from the average price of 4793 yuan / kg in the spot market before the holiday (January 31).

 

On February 10, the spot market price of gold was 376.63 yuan / g, an increase of 0.63%, an increase of 0.79% compared with the spot market price of 373.05 yuan / g before the festival (January 31).

 

Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year

 

After the festival, the convergence of precious metal gold and silver weakened, the price of gold increased significantly, and the price trend of silver was weak.

 

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

 

News of interest rate hike policy

 

The Central Bank of Romania raised its benchmark interest rate to 2.5% and the market expected it to be 2.25%.

 

The Bank of Iceland raised its key interest rate to 2.75% from 2%.

 

The Bank of Thailand kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, in line with market expectations.

 

The Central Bank of India kept the key interest rate unchanged at 4.00%, in line with market expectations.

 

UBS: the Central Bank of Brazil is expected to eventually raise the benchmark interest rate to 12.5%.

 

The Bank of Indonesia said it had room to cut interest rates. The Bank of Indonesia kept the 7-day reverse repo rate unchanged at 3.50%.

 

Domestic monetary policy news

 

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The central bank today launched a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 20 billion yuan, with a bid winning interest rate of 2.1%, which was the same as before. As 200 billion yuan of reverse repo expired today, a net return of 180 billion yuan was realized.

 

According to the data of the central bank, at the end of January, the balance of broad money (M2) was 243.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%. The growth rate was 0.8 and 0.4 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year, estimated at 9.2%, and the previous value was 9%. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 61.39 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%. Excluding the influence of the wrong timing factor ① of the Spring Festival, M1 increased by about 2% year-on-year. The balance of money in circulation (M0) was 10.62 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.5%. The net cash invested in the month was 1.54 trillion yuan.

 

China’s social financing scale increased by 6170 billion yuan in January, with an estimated 5385 billion yuan, compared with 2368.2 billion yuan. At the end of January, the stock of social financing scale in China was 320.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%.

 

In January, China increased RMB loans by 3980 billion yuan, a monthly statistical high, an increase of 394.4 billion yuan year-on-year; It is expected to be 3700 billion yuan, compared with 1131.8 billion yuan. In terms of sub sectors, household loans increased by 843 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 100.6 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans increased by 742.4 billion yuan; Loans to enterprises (Institutions) increased by 3.36 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 1.01 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 2.1 trillion yuan, and bill financing increased by 178.8 billion yuan; Loans from non banking financial institutions decreased by 141.7 billion yuan.

 

Future forecast

 

The expectation of raising interest rates in the near future still exists, suppressing interest free assets and putting pressure on the price of precious metal silver. However, geopolitical news triggered a certain rise in risk aversion. It is expected that the price of precious metals will still be in the stage of upward weakness and weak consolidation in the short term.

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Business agency: ethylene glycol daily review (20209)

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on February 9 was 5383.33 yuan / ton.

 

In terms of inventory, as of February 7, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 748000 tons, an increase of 104500 tons or 16.24% compared with last Monday, and 95800 tons or 14.69% compared with last Thursday.

 

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Ethylene glycol market is weak and declining today. In terms of upstream crude oil, concerns about the possible increase of Iranian supply weighed on the market mentality, and oil prices fell for the third consecutive day on Wednesday. In the afternoon, the center of gravity of MEG outer plate fell, and the recent cargo negotiation was around us $685 / ton. The downturn at the downstream demand side will drag down the market, and the polyester operating rate may rise slowly in the later stage.

 

Forecast: the short-term upward resistance is large.

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Trade name: styrene butadiene rubber 1502

 

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Latest price (February 8): 12650 yuan / ton

 

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business agency, the domestic styrene butadiene rubber price was 12650 yuan / ton on Tuesday, up 1.07% from the previous day. The styrene butadiene rubber plant starts normally and the supply surface is sufficient; After the festival, the price of international crude oil and raw material butadiene / styrene rebounded, with cost support; The ex factory price of styrene butadiene rubber increased by 200 yuan / ton. After the festival, trade merchants continued to return to the market, and the market offer rose slightly. According to the monitoring of business agency, the mainstream offer in the domestic styrene butadiene rubber market was around 12500 ~ 12900 yuan / ton on the 8th.

 

Future forecast: it is expected that the styrene butadiene rubber market will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

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Aluminum price fluctuated slightly on February 7

 

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According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on February 7 was 22290 yuan / ton, up 3.23% from the average market price of 21593.33 yuan / ton on February 31; Compared with the average market price of 20370 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (January 1), an increase of 9.43%.

 

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen by 8.04% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingots is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 19.24% recently.

 

Future forecast

 

In China, there are not many accumulated stocks before the festival and during the Spring Festival, and the fundamentals are good. Lun aluminum in the external market fell first and then rose. The recent rebound is obvious, boosting the rebound of domestic aluminum prices. Today’s rise is mainly based on the better expectation of the capital market for the future of the aluminum market.

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