1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of aniline stabilized after rising this month. On February 1, the price in Shandong was 12400-12660 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12800 yuan / ton; On February 25, the price in Shandong was 13000-13200 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 13800 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.82% this month and 23.84% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Raw material, pure benzene: during the Spring Festival, the strong rise of crude oil led to the positive follow-up of relevant energy and chemical products. The shipment of Shandong local refinery was good and the price rose positively. After the festival, Sinopec also raised the price of pure benzene to 8100 yuan / ton, and the market negotiation was positive. However, with the weakening of crude oil support and the limited follow-up of downstream end products, the whole pure benzene industry chain weakened, the holders took profits and the price fell continuously. In late June, tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated, crude oil rose significantly in the short term, the cost side drove pure benzene to rise, and the price rebounded rapidly. On February 1, the price was 7660 yuan / ton; On February 25, the price was 7940 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.66% this month and 23.1% over the same period last year.

Nitric acid: the price of domestic nitric acid is basically stable this month. The price of nitric acid in East China was 2200 yuan / ton on February 1 and 2200 yuan / ton on February 25, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month and increased by 10% over the same period last year. Years later, the pace of enterprise production was slow, and the goods in the market were poor.

Before the Spring Festival, it was reported that Shandong Jinling aniline plant was planned to be overhauled in February, and the downstream inventory was expected to be strong. After the festival, Jinling maintenance plan was implemented. In addition, due to the Winter Olympics in Shanxi Tianji, a set of devices were shut down, and the supply of aniline in the North was significantly reduced. Enterprises actively raised prices. Superimposed on the raw material, the price of pure benzene rose, and the support for aniline was also good, and the industry was mainly bullish in the future.

After the festival, the process of returning some downstream to the market was slow, and the improvement of the demand side was insufficient; The resistance of the downstream to high priced aniline increased, and aniline stabilized after rising. With the decline of cost support, aniline entered the horizontal consolidation stage.

3、 Future forecast

Raw material, pure benzene: at present, pure benzene is obviously affected by the fluctuation of crude oil trend. In terms of demand, some downstream enterprises have insufficient profit space and lack of power to catch up, and some factories shut down to reduce the burden. The demand is limited, and the upward pressure of pure benzene increases, which may fall; If crude oil continues to rise, or support pure benzene to rise. Nitric acid: the upward support of liquid ammonia at the raw material end may drive the price rise of nitric acid.

At present, Shandong Jinling aniline plant is still shut down for maintenance, Shanxi Tianji plant has been restarted in the middle and late days, and the supply reduction in Shandong is obvious. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to the cost and demand. If there is any improvement, it may drive aniline to continue to rise. At the same time, pay attention to the restart plan of Jinling device.

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of lithium carbonate kept rising in February 2022, and the price reached a new high at the end of the month. On February 24, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 439600 yuan / ton, an increase of 23.97% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial carbon in East China was 354600 yuan / ton on February 1). On February 24, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 458000 yuan / ton, up 19.9% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (the average price of carbon in East China was 382000 yuan / ton). Until the 24th, the comprehensive price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 410000-470000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 450000-490000 yuan / ton.

By observing the changes in the market, after the Spring Festival holiday, the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise steadily and constantly set a new record. In early February, both upstream and downstream of the market were in the state of resumption of production and work, which gradually increased the market demand. Around the middle of February, domestic lithium carbonate maintenance enterprises also gradually resumed normal production, and the supply also increased. Although the cathode material enterprises in the downstream have reduced production slightly, the demand for lithium carbonate is still at a high level.

In late February, the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise significantly, the supply and demand of lithium ore and lithium salt in the market were still in a tight state, and the gap of domestic lithium carbonate was still obvious. At present, the demand of new energy vehicles, energy storage and other markets continues to burst. Lithium carbonate, as an indispensable raw material in the production and manufacture of the four cathode materials, the price of lithium carbonate continues to hit a record high. In addition, due to the relatively long production cycle at the upstream mine, there are obvious restrictions on the increase of lithium salt production. Under the tension of supply and demand, the price of lithium carbonate rises all the way.

The downstream lithium hydroxide market rose. In February, with the rising price of upstream lithium carbonate, the cost support was obvious. In addition, some manufacturers are in the annual maintenance stage, the overall operating rate of the market is about 60%, and the supply reduction is tight. The enthusiasm of downstream inquiry and procurement is OK, and the lithium hydroxide Market is running strongly.

The price trend of lithium iron phosphate in the downstream is upward. At present, the manufacturers have tight supply, insufficient supply, high negotiation focus, and the overall market negotiation atmosphere is acceptable. The rising price of upstream raw materials and the high market focus have a certain support for the lithium iron phosphate Market, and the overall market is strong.

According to the lithium carbonate analyst of business society, although the demand gap for lithium salt in the market has narrowed, the downstream purchasing sentiment is still strong. The spot quantity of lithium carbonate in the market is still low, and the shortage of goods in the market continues. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will rise continuously in the short term.

On February 23, the natural rubber commodity index was 39.17, up 0.11 points from yesterday, down 60.83% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 43.59% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020

Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber since February 2022

According to the monitoring of business agency (100ppi. Com), since the spring break in February, the spot market of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in China’s East China market has been up and down first, and then continued to fluctuate weakly: the mainstream reported about 13260 yuan / ton on the 7th and about 13210 yuan / ton on the 23rd, down 0.38%. During this period, the highest price was 13880 yuan / ton on the 10th, and the lowest price was 13170 yuan / ton on the 22nd, with a maximum amplitude of 5.12%.

Figure 3: crude oil market trend since February 2022

Macro aspect: the situation between Russia and Ukraine has always been an important geopolitical event this month, and its impact on the trend of crude oil is very obvious. On February 22, the price of international crude oil futures closed higher. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $91.91/barrel, up US $1.7 or 1.9%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $96.84/barrel, up US $1.45 or 1.5%. Oil prices rose to their highest level since 2014, mainly due to the continuous conflict in eastern Ukraine and the escalation of antagonism between the West and Russia, supporting the continuous rise of oil prices.

In terms of industry: in foreign production areas, since January, Vietnam and northern Thailand have entered the production reduction period. In southern Thailand, there is a high yield, and the output in the main production areas has gradually decreased. All domestic areas have stopped cutting, but have not yet been cut. The global natural rubber supply is about to enter the lowest point of the whole year. On the demand side, the start-up of tire enterprises gradually picked up after the year. It is reported that the manufacturer’s resumption time is ahead of schedule this year, and its purchase demand for natural rubber continues to recover. On the inventory side, Qingdao’s inventory continues to increase. Statistics show that it has reached 350000 tons so far, of which the increase of dark rubber ring is significant; According to market news, the warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber and the cumulative inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao narrowed in the previous period.

Figure 4: Weekly K-bar chart of natural rubber market in the first and middle of February 2022

Hot spots of this month: 1. According to the data, in 2021, Indonesia exported 2328000 tons of natural rubber (excluding composite rubber), an increase of 2% year-on-year. Among them, the total export of standard glue was 2.268 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%; The export of cigarette glue was 56000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20%; Latex exports were 25000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 55%. From January to December, the total amount of natural rubber exported to China was 174000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 47%; The total export of mixed rubber to China was 24000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 84%. Overall, in 2021, Indonesia exported 2.352 million tons of natural rubber and mixed rubber, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%; A total of 198000 tons were exported to China, a year-on-year decrease of 59%.

2. Data show that in January 2022, China’s heavy truck market sold about 78000 vehicles, up 36% month on month compared with December 2021, but down 57% from 183400 vehicles in the same period last year.

3. According to the Malaysian Bureau of statistics, in December 2021, its natural rubber export volume decreased by 25.3% year-on-year to 45982 tons, with a month on month decrease of 24.5%. In December, its natural rubber import volume was 113776 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20.1% and a month on month increase of 13.2%. In December, it could monitor the total output of natural rubber 41690 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3% and a month on month increase of 36.7%. In December, its natural rubber inventory was 285208 tons, with a month on month increase of 5.9% and a year-on-year increase of 14.3%. In December, its total domestic natural rubber consumption increased by 0.7% year-on-year to 42637 tons, down 1.6% month on month. Latex gloves industry is the main force of natural rubber consumption in Malaysia, accounting for 73.4%.

4. According to the latest data from C ô te d’Ivoire, the export volume of natural rubber from C ô te d’Ivoire in January was 117268 tons, an increase of 20.7% over the same period last year and a decrease of 4.2% month on month. C ô te d’Ivoire is the largest producer of natural rubber in Africa.

5. The December report released by ANRPC predicts that the global output of natural rubber will increase by 1.7% year-on-year to 13.821 million tons in 2021. Among them, Thailand decreased by 3.9%, Indonesia increased by 2.8%, China increased by 22.9%, India increased by 15.3%, Vietnam decreased by 1.9% and Malaysia increased by 1%.

6. On February 14, the Federation of passenger cars released the production and sales data of passenger cars in January 2022. According to the data, the output of narrow passenger cars in January was 2.059 million, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%; In January, the retail sales volume of narrow passenger cars was 2.092 million, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%; In January, the wholesale sales volume of narrow passenger vehicles was 2.172 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. For the performance of the passenger car market in February, the passenger Federation said that the car market was in high sales in January this year, making the inventory at the channel end still low. After the car enterprises resume production in February, the dealers have the demand to replenish the inventory, which will drive the improvement of wholesale sales in February.

7. According to the latest data released by the European Association of automobile manufacturers (ACEA), in January 2022, the sales of passenger cars in the EU decreased by 6% year-on-year to 682596, the seventh consecutive month of decline, and hit a record low in the same period. The continued shortage of semiconductors still has a negative impact on car sales in the region.

8. On February 18, the latest production and sales data released by China Automobile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as “China Automobile Association”) showed that in January 2022, China’s automobile production and sales completed 2.422 million and 2.531 million respectively, with a month on month decrease of 16.7% and 9.2% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 1.4% and 0.9% respectively. Looking forward to the first quarter, China Automobile Association pointed out that it is necessary to be cautious and optimistic about the future development of the market.

Figure 5: annual comparison of domestic mainstream trend of natural rubber from 2019 to 2022

Future forecast: the demand for natural rubber procurement is picking up, but it will take time for large-scale improvement; Although the growth rate of spot inventory has narrowed, the upward momentum of the market will still be suppressed. It is generally expected that the downstream demand will be supported by the natural shock in the medium term under the background of the continuous recovery of the annual supply trough, but in the short term, the weak trend may last for some time, focusing on the resumption of work and the increase of inventory.

Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, on February 22, the average price of silver market in early trading was 4899.33 yuan / kg, with a daily increase of 0.91%, which was 2.22% higher than the average price of 4793 yuan / kg in the spot market before the festival (January 31).

On February 22, the spot market price of gold was 389.61 yuan / g, up 0.94% on a daily basis, up 4.44% from the spot market price of 373.05 yuan / g before the holiday (January 31).

Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year

 
In the long term, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence and the trend is basically the same.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Geopolitical superposition tight monetary expectation suppresses risk appetite

The escalation of the situation in Ukraine triggered a sharp decline in global stock markets, pushed up oil prices and prompted investors to buy sovereign bonds and gold for safe haven.

Future forecast

In the long run, the monetary easing policy is gradually ebbing, and the expectation of interest rate hike suppresses the continuous rise of precious metal prices. In the short term, precious metals are likely to continue to rise.

This week, both raw materials are down, with obvious decline. The epoxy resin market is in a downturn, and the on-site negotiations are cold. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the market offer of liquid epoxy resin in East China was 28500-29500 yuan / ton on February 21, down 0.85% during the week. So far, the offer of liquid resin Market in East China is 28500-29500 yuan / ton, and the offer of solid resin Market in Huangshan is 24300-24800 yuan / ton.

The epoxy resin market negotiation was cold this week, mainly due to the decline of dual raw materials, and the continuous decline of East China auction. The starting price of on-site auction on the 21st fell to 16000 yuan / ton, and the market offer fell to 18650-18700 yuan / ton. The upstream and downstream of the short-term Industrial chain are still bad, but the supply side is tight, and it is expected to operate stably in the short term.

Another important raw material, epichlorohydrin, also showed a downward trend in the market. On February 18, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 18966.67 yuan / ton, down 1.04% compared with Monday’s price, up 4.02% compared with January 18, and up 2.52% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

In terms of equipment, the overall operating rate of liquid resin is about 75%; The operating rate of solid resin is about 40%. Nantong Xingchen 150000 T / a unit was shut down for maintenance, and the operating rate of the industry declined.

From the perspective of business society, dual raw materials are down. Although the factory supports the price and stabilizes the market, it is difficult to stop the downward trend under the downturn of demand. It is expected to weaken in the short term, adjust the operation, and pay attention to the upstream and downstream products of the industrial chain.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, toluene fluctuated lower this week. On February 11, the price was 6860 yuan / ton; On Friday (February 18), the price was 6900 yuan / ton, up 0.58% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 42.27%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Crude oil continued to rise in the early stage, rising in a wide range, followed by the rise of the gasoline industry, which led to the strong rise of the toluene Market. However, the actual demand of downstream is limited, and the rise of toluene is blocked. In the second half of the week, crude oil fluctuated widely, the guidance on energy related commodities weakened, the market focus shifted to the demand side, and toluene fell weakly.

In the external market, toluene in Asia rose first and then fell in the external market this week. On Thursday (February 17), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was $878 / ton, up $7 / ton or 0.8% from February 10.

In terms of crude oil, in the early stage, due to the escalation of tensions in Russia and Ukraine, the market was worried that the crude oil supply might be affected, and the international oil price rose continuously and broadly. However, there is still uncertainty about the situation in Russia and Ukraine, new progress has been made in Iran’s nuclear negotiations, crude oil demand is still improving, uncertainty about the trend of crude oil is increasing, long and short are intertwined, and oil prices fluctuate widely. As of February 18, Brent fell 0.9 USD / barrel, or 0.95%; WTI fell $2.03/barrel, or 2.18%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China first rose and then fell this week, with a slight overall decline. The price was 19575 yuan / ton on February 11 and 19550 yuan / ton on February 18, down 0.13% from last week and up 50.38% from the same period last year.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price stabilized this week. On Friday (February 18), the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 8000 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week and increased by 40.35% from the same period last year. As of February 17, the closing prices in Asia were US $1035-1037 / T FOB Korea and US $1053-1055 / T CFR China.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline prices in Shandong rose first and then fell this week. The price was 9035.2 yuan / ton on February 11 and 9176.8 yuan / ton on February 18, up 1.57% from last week and 50% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, positive: tight crude oil supply is still the main theme, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine is still uncertain; Bearish: Iran’s nuclear negotiations have made new progress. The uncertainty of crude oil trend has increased. Continue to pay attention to the relationship between crude oil supply and demand, geopolitical impact, global epidemic, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of US crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

The lack of downstream demand still greatly restricts the rise of toluene. Combined with the increased uncertainty of crude oil trend in the near future, the decline of toluene may increase. Pay attention to the dynamics of toluene units, the dynamics and demand of downstream units, and the impact of crude oil and external market trends on toluene prices.

DBP prices stopped falling and rebounded this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of DBP stopped falling and picked up this week, and the market of DBP stopped falling and warmed up. As of February 17, the price of DBP was 11200.00 yuan / ton, down 3.45% from 11200 yuan / ton on February 11 last weekend, and up 2.44% from 10933.33 yuan / ton on February 15. This week, the DBP market stopped falling and picked up, and the DBP market is expected to rise.

Butanol prices are slowing down this week

According to the price monitoring of business club, the decline of n-butanol price slowed down this week. On February 17, the price of n-butanol was 10530 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 170 yuan / ton compared with 10700 yuan / ton on February 14. The price of n-butanol fell slightly this week, and the decline of n-butanol price in Shandong slowed down. In the future, the market of n-butanol stabilized, the cost of DBP stabilized, and the downward pressure of DBP market weakened.

The price of phthalic anhydride was weak and temporarily stable this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of phthalic anhydride fell slightly this week. As of February 17, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8500 yuan / ton, slightly lower than that of 8525 yuan / ton on February 14. The price of phthalic anhydride fell this week, the demand for phthalic anhydride was temporarily stable, the price of DBP raw materials stabilized, and the cost support weakened.

The trend of PVC fell slightly this week

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the PVC price fell slightly this week and the PVC market fell back. As of February 17, the price of PVC was 8830 yuan / ton, down 90 yuan / ton from 8920 yuan / ton on February 14, and the price of PVC fell slightly. PVC prices fell this week, and the rigid demand for PVC was stable; The positive trend of DBP market weakened.

Future expectations

According to DBP data analysts of business agency, the prices of raw materials n-butanol, octanol and phthalic anhydride stopped falling and stabilized, the cost of plasticizer DBP stabilized, and the price of DBP rebounded and rose after a sharp fall. In the future, the downstream demand is stable and the raw material price is stable. It is expected that the price shock of DBP will be stable in the future.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China fell from 4233.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 4133.33 yuan / ton this weekend, down 100 yuan / ton, down 2.36%, up 35.52% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the calcium carbide market fell slightly this week. On February 13, the calcium carbide commodity index was 108.30, unchanged from yesterday, down 48.97% from the highest point of 212.23 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 95.17% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream cost support is general, and the downstream demand is enhanced

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oviganon quoted 4250 yuan / ton of calcium carbide this weekend, which fell 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Inner Mongolia Zhonglian calcium carbide quoted 4050 yuan / ton this weekend, down 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The quotation of calcium carbide in Xingping, Ningxia this weekend was 4100 yuan / ton, which fell by 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream raw material market, the ex factory quotation of Lantan was adjusted at a high level this week. The quotation of Shenmu small materials this weekend is 1750 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; The quotation of CMCC this weekend is 1800 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; The quotation of bulk materials this weekend is 1800 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend. The price of upstream raw materials was adjusted at a high level and the cost support was general, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

From the downstream market, the ex factory price of PVC rose slightly this week. The price of PVC this week rose from 8460.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 8920.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 5.44%, up 21.36% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of PVC rose slightly this week, the enthusiasm of downstream customers for calcium carbide procurement increased, and the downstream PVC market had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream products rose slightly

In the middle and late February, the calcium carbide market may rise slightly. The price of raw material blue carbon was adjusted at a high level, the cost of calcium carbide was generally supported, the downstream PVC market rose slightly, and the downstream demand increased. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may rise slightly in mid and late February.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of acetic acid in East China was 5560 yuan / ton on February 11. Compared with the price of 5860 yuan / ton on February 7, it was reduced by 300 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.12%. As of February 11, the market price of acetic acid in various regions rose and fell as follows:

region , February 7, February 11th , Price rise and fall

South China , 5600-5700 yuan / ton, 5450-5550 yuan / ton, – 150/-150

North China , 5650-5900 yuan / ton, 5250-5500 yuan / ton, – 400/-400

Shandong region , 5650-5750 yuan / ton, 5150-5250 yuan / ton, – 500/-500

Jiangsu region , 5550-5650 yuan / ton, 5200-5300 yuan / ton, – 350/-350

Zhejiang region , 5650-5750 yuan / ton, 5300-5400 yuan / ton, – 350/-350

During the week, the acetic acid market was weak, the downstream demand was weak before the Spring Festival, the market transaction was insufficient, the inventory of acetic acid enterprises accumulated, the start-up of acetic acid enterprises was high after the festival, the market supply was sufficient, the downstream market entry enthusiasm was not high, the market trading was light, the acetic acid enterprises competed for shipment, and the quotation continued to decline.

Downstream, the market of ethyl acetate decreased significantly. On February 11, the price of ethyl acetate in East China was about 8480 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.76% during the week. After the festival, the operating rate of ethyl acetate increased, the main factories started stably, the large factories in Jiangsu resumed operation, the supply increased, the market supply was sufficient, most downstream industries did not start operation, the demand was weak, and the supply of ethyl acetate Market exceeded the demand.

According to the acetic acid analysts of business society, at present, the acetic acid market is in sufficient supply, the downstream demand is light, the enterprise inventory is accumulated, and the market performance is oversupplied. It is expected that the future acetic acid market will continue to operate weakly, and the specific attention will be paid to the downstream transaction.

Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, on February 14, the average price of silver market in early trading was 4882.67 yuan / kg, down 2.53% daily, an increase of 1.87% compared with the average price of 4793 yuan / kg in the spot market before the festival (January 31).

On February 14, the spot market price of gold was 374.21 yuan / g, an increase of 1.63%, an increase of 1.94% over the spot market price of 373.05 yuan / g before the holiday (January 31).

Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year

In the long term, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence and the trend is basically the same. Silver prices rose sharply today.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Inflation data stimulate risk aversion

Overnight, U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds fell sharply after the U.S. inflation data exceeded expectations again. Swap dealers bet that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points five times before the end of July, and the real yield of inflation adjusted 10-year U.S. bonds jumped to -0.421% on Friday, the highest level since June 2020.

Domestic monetary policy news

The central bank today conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 10 billion yuan, and the bid winning interest rate was 2.1%, unchanged from the previous time. Another 20 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo and 200 billion yuan of 14 day reverse repo expired.

Future forecast

Inflation data stimulated investors’ hedging sentiment. As a defensive asset against high inflation, the price of precious metal silver rose. At present, the real negative interest rate is still good for precious metals. We will wait and see the news of interest rate increase in the future. We will focus on the following data news this week.

Tuesday: 15:00 UK December three-month ILO unemployment rate, UK January unemployment rate, UK January unemployment benefit applicants; 18: 00 German February ZEW Economic Prosperity Index, revised value of GDP annual rate in the fourth quarter of the euro zone, February ZEW Economic Prosperity Index in the euro zone, quarterly employment rate after quarterly adjustment in the fourth quarter of the euro zone, and quarterly adjusted trade account of the euro zone in December; 21:30 US January PPI monthly rate, US February New York Fed Manufacturing index;

Wednesday: API crude oil inventory for the week from 05:30 to February 11 in the United States; 09:30 China’s January CPI annual rate; 15: 00 UK January CPI monthly rate, UK January retail price index monthly rate; 18: Monthly industrial output rate of euro zone in December; 21:30 Canadian January CPI monthly rate, Canadian December wholesale sales monthly rate, US January retail sales monthly rate, US January import price index monthly rate; 22:15 monthly industrial output rate of the United States in January; 23:00 US February NAHB real estate market index and US December commercial inventory monthly rate; 23:30 EIA crude oil inventory of the week from the United States to February 11 and EIA strategic oil reserve inventory of the week from the United States to February 11;

Thursday: 08:00 Australian January quarter adjusted unemployment rate; 15: 00 Swiss January trade account; 21:30 the number of initial jobless claims in the week from February 12, the annualized total number of new housing starts in January, the total number of construction permits in January, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index in February; 23:30 EIA natural gas inventory of the week from the United States to February 11;

Friday: 07:30 annual rate of Japan’s core CPI in January; 14: 30. ILO unemployment rate in France in the fourth quarter; 15: The monthly rate of retail sales in the UK after the quarter adjustment in January; 15: 45. Monthly CPI rate of France in January; 17: 00 euro zone current account after quarterly adjustment in December; 21:30 Canadian retail sales rate in December; 23:00 annualized total sales of existing homes in the United States in January and the monthly rate of leading indicators of the American Chamber of Commerce in January; Saturday: 02:00 the total number of oil wells drilled in the week from the United States to February 18.