1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency: on January 13, the average price of domestic LNG was 4643.33 yuan / ton, down 350 yuan / ton from 4993.33 yuan / ton last Thursday (6th), a decrease of 7.01% during the cycle, 1.42% from the beginning of the month and 13.48% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the domestic liquid market changed from continuous rising after the festival to frequent falling, and the price also continued to decline. This week’s decline was mainly due to the start-up and resumption of production of early maintenance liquid plants and the increase of market supply. However, due to the impact of recent public health events in Henan and other places, the start-up of some end users was limited, the demand decreased, the shipping atmosphere of liquid plants weakened, the sales pressure increased, the prices fell again and again, fell back below 5000 yuan in many places, and the market focus moved down rapidly. On the 13th, the origin auction ended, with a transaction price of 2.88-2.89 yuan / m3, a decrease of 0.05-0.08 yuan / m3 compared with the previous cycle, a trading volume of 9.82 million m3 and a flow auction of 11.18 million m3. At present, 4450-4700 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 4450-4760 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 4500-4900 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 4600-4700 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 5000-5150 yuan / ton in Hebei and 5000-5100 yuan / ton in Henan. The terminal price is about 5350-6900 yuan / ton. The spot CIF price of LNG in China is US $26.4892/million British heat, and the price is reduced.

According to the weekly rise and fall from October 18, 2021 to January 9, 2022, the domestic liquefied natural gas cycle rose and fell, with a decline of 15.97% on December 6, and then rose in recent months. This week, the market turned sharply downward and the price fell.

region Specifications January 13th January 6th Rise and fall

Inner Mongolia liquified natural gas 4450-4700 4720-5100 – 270/-400

Shaanxi liquified natural gas 4450-4760 4910-5070 – 460/-310

Shanxi liquified natural gas 4500-4900 4850-5250 – 350/-350

Ningxia liquified natural gas 4600-4700 4770-4950 – 170/-250

Henan liquified natural gas 5000-5100 5200-5700 – 200/-600

Hebei liquified natural gas 5000-5150 5170-5500 – 170/-350

Downstream products fell more or rose less:

Methanol, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises on January 13 was 2402 yuan / ton. International oil prices continued to rise and the trading atmosphere in the mainland improved. In the northwest part, the selling price is low, and the shipment of enterprises is temporarily acceptable, but the freight is high. Traders operate with caution, and some downstream enterprises have acceptable raw material inventory, mainly purchasing on demand. The short-term domestic methanol market is mainly sorted out.

On the 13th, the overall market of liquid ammonia in China was stable and small. The prices in the main production areas of Shandong, Hebei, southwest and two lakes did not change much, with a rise and fall range of 50 yuan. At present, the market supply and demand is balanced, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the manufacturer mainly supports the price stably.

Urea, the domestic urea market was temporarily stable on January 13. Upstream coal and natural gas prices rose slightly, and cost support increased. From the perspective of demand: the promotion of agricultural demand is accelerated, and industrial demand is mainly wait-and-see. Agricultural fertilizer preparation began to increase in some areas, and the bidding for summer pipe fertilizer was implemented, which boosted market confidence in Pakistan’s export. The market price of melamine was adjusted at a low level, the inventory of enterprises was under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation was weakened. In terms of supply, Ruixing phase III unit was shut down for maintenance, mingshengda unit was shut down for a short time, and the daily output of urea decreased slightly. On the whole, urea cost support was strengthened, downstream demand improved, urea supply was insufficient, and urea increased slightly in the future.

3、 Future forecast

The LNG analyst of business society believes that under the current situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the market, the domestic liquid market is still weak, but supported by costs, the decline in domestic liquid prices begins to slow down. It is expected that the domestic LNG will remain stable in the short term, mainly through narrow adjustment.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of January 12, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol is 15700 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on January 9, 2022 (the ex factory reference price of propylene glycol is 16033 yuan / ton), the average price is reduced by 333 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.08%; Compared with the price on January 1 (propylene glycol ex factory reference price of 16400 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 700 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.27%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that the domestic propylene glycol market fell last week. This week, the effective support of propylene glycol market was insufficient, and the market continued to fall deeply. At the beginning of the week (10th), the propylene glycol market was in a wait-and-see stalemate, the downstream goods were prepared carefully, and the market was temporarily stable. In the middle of the week (November 12), due to insufficient downstream demand for propylene glycol and flat on-site gas buying, the transaction focus of propylene glycol continued to decline. Some propylene glycol factories successively reduced the ex factory price of propylene glycol by about 200-400 yuan / ton. As of December 12, the ex factory price of propylene glycol in Shandong was around 15600-16000 yuan / ton, and the average price was 15700 yuan / ton, The low-end price refers to 15600 yuan / ton. Compared with the beginning of the week, it decreased by 2.08% during the week. At present, the overall market of propylene glycol is in the downward channel, and new orders are mainly negotiated.

In terms of index, the propylene glycol commodity index on January 11 was 203.85, down 1.71 points from yesterday, down 34.66% from the highest point 311.97 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 103.85% from the lowest point 100.00 on September 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now)

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, recently (1.4-1.10), the market price of propylene oxide rose first and then stabilized. After the new year’s Day holiday, the price of raw propylene rose steadily, the cost support gradually increased, the downstream orders were released, the factory shipment improved, the inventory pressure was reduced, and the focus of market negotiation gradually increased. Near the weekend, the inventory was low, which supported the manufacturer’s mentality and supported the price offer. However, the demand end performance was cold, the market price was frozen and sorted out, and the operation was stable temporarily, On the 10th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 10700-10800 yuan / ton.

Future trend analysis

At present, the downstream of propylene glycol mainly continues to wait and see and receive orders, and there are few new orders. The propylene glycol datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market is mostly sorted and operated in a narrow range, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

In January, the dimethyl ether market rebounded sharply, and the price in Henan rushed to 4000 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 3580.00 yuan / ton on January 3 and 3946.67 yuan / ton on January 11, with an increase of 10.24% and a decrease of 4.38% compared with December 1.

As of January 11, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

region Mainstream quotation

Jiangxi region 4180 yuan / ton

Hebei region 4350 yuan / ton

Henan region 3910-3980 yuan / ton

Entering 2022, the dimethyl ether Market has changed its weakness and ushered in a substantial rebound. There are plenty of positive factors in the market, and the price in Henan has increased one after another, sprinting 4000 yuan / ton. Jiangxi, Hebei and Shandong also increased to varying degrees. After new year’s day, the continuous rise of international crude oil has driven the civil price of liquefied gas higher. The price of raw methanol market is mainly strong after the festival, and the cost side has also brought some benefits to the market. In addition, due to environmental protection factors, the load of units in Hebei and Shandong decreased, and the overall supply of the market decreased. However, there is sufficient supply in Henan. The downstream market entry enthusiasm is good, the manufacturer’s mentality is strong, and the price has increased one after another.

After new year’s day, the methanol market rose in a narrow range. Due to the appropriate replenishment of downstream enterprises after new year’s day, the inventory of upstream enterprises decreased, the market atmosphere improved, and the mentality of people in the industry was supported. However, at present, the coal price is still in the weak consolidation stage, and the operating rate of the whole methanol industry is in a high position. With the holidays of downstream industries, the demand side is relatively low, and the current round of rise of methanol may be difficult to sustain.

At present, there is a significant correction in the market price of liquefied gas, and there is little change in the raw methanol market, which brings limited support to the dimethyl ether Market. In addition, with the rising price, the resistance in the downstream has increased, and the enthusiasm for entering the market has weakened compared with the previous period. It is expected that there is little room for the continued rise of the dimethyl ether Market in the short term, and it may still return to weakness in the long term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3083 yuan / ton on January 4 and 3050 yuan / ton on January 10. The price of monoammonium phosphate fell by 1.08% this week.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 3600 yuan / ton on January 4, and 3595 yuan / ton on January 10. The price of diammonium phosphate fell by 0.14% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The decline slowed down after the decline of monoammonium phosphate at the beginning of the week, the demand for monoammonium from downstream enterprises was better, and some enterprises intended to increase the price. At present, the quotations of enterprises in various regions vary greatly. At present, the ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Anhui is about 3300 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Henan is about 2800 yuan / ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

The market of diammonium phosphate fluctuated slightly this week, and there was no great change on the whole. At present, there are sufficient orders at home and abroad. Some enterprises have suspended receiving orders, and most enterprises have no quotation for the time being. The price of raw sulfur is strong and the cost support is good. The mainstream factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei is 3450-3600 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated.

This week, the raw phosphorus ore market mainly operated stably, and the average market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China is 690 yuan / ton. At present, the supply and demand of phosphate rock remains stable and the trading atmosphere is mild. On the eve of the Spring Festival, the supply of phosphate rock is mainly contract old customers, and the external quotation of enterprises mostly holds the early price.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium phosphate analyst of business society believes that at present, the market demand for ammonium phosphate has increased, the downstream procurement has begun to be active, and the delivery and investment direction is good. The high cost is strong and the support is favorable. The price of ammonium phosphate is expected to be strong and stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1590 yuan / ton on January 3 and 1476 yuan / ton on January 7. The price of ammonium sulfate fell 7.13% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Due to the sluggish demand, the ammonium sulfate market continued its decline last week this week, and the price trend fell. The bidding price of coking grade ammonium sulfate continued to decline, fell sharply, and the internal grade ammonium sulfate was slightly adjusted. As of January 7, the mainstream factory quotation of coking ammonium sulfate in Shandong is 1250-1350 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 1200-1260 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi is 1140-1260 yuan / ton, and that in Henan is 1200-1260 yuan / ton. Hexene grade ammonium sulfate, the ex factory quotation in Shandong is 1890-1950 yuan / ton.

The downstream compound fertilizer market is stable and small this week, and the purchase of ammonium sulfate just needs replenishment. The price of monoammonium phosphate, the raw material of compound fertilizer, stopped falling, and the cost side support was acceptable. Compound fertilizer manufacturers intend to raise prices, and the compound fertilizer market is more optimistic in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium sulfate analyst of business society believes that the trading atmosphere of ammonium sulfate is weak at present, and the downstream is resistant to high prices. Approaching the holiday, the demand at home and abroad turns weak. At present, coking grade ammonium sulfate has been at a low level and there is limited room for decline. The market of hexyl ammonium sulfate is strong. The price of ammonium sulfate is expected to stabilize in the short term.

Since the Spring Festival in 2021, driven by the collective rising bull market of chemical bulk products, the domestic hydrochloric acid market has shown a trend of fluctuating rise in the first three quarters and sharp rise and fall in the fourth quarter. After several rounds of ups and downs in the first three quarters, the price of hydrochloric acid finally reached 524 yuan / ton in late October, a new high in recent ten years. Subsequently, the price of hydrochloric acid fell sharply, and the price returned to early January. According to the data monitored by the business society, the average market price of hydrochloric acid at the beginning of the year was 287.50 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrochloric acid at the end of the year was 318.00 yuan / ton, with a total increase of 10.61% during the year. The lowest price in the whole year was 172.50 yuan / ton in February, and the highest price in the whole year was 524.00 yuan / ton in late October, with a maximum amplitude of 203.77% in the year.

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From the annual comparison chart of hydrochloric acid price, the highest price of hydrochloric acid in 2021 was 524 yuan / ton, up 79.15% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On January 6, the commodity index of hydrochloric acid was 85.26, the same as yesterday, down 38.17% from the highest point of 137.89 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 374.19% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Market Review

The hydrochloric acid market first fell and then rose in the first quarter. In January, the downward trend of December 2020 continued. The trading atmosphere in the domestic hydrochloric acid market was cold, the downstream demand was insufficient, there were few new orders, and the trading atmosphere was weak. The price of hydrochloric acid decreased from 287.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 195.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 32.17% for the whole month. In February, after the Spring Festival, the upstream and downstream enterprises of hydrochloric acid started one after another, but the upstream support was insufficient, the downstream demand was general, and the price of hydrochloric acid continued to fall. The price of hydrochloric acid decreased from 195.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 172.50 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 11.54%. In March, the price of hydrochloric acid stopped falling and rose. The sharp rise in the market price of downstream ammonium chloride drives the rise in the price of hydrochloric acid. The price of hydrochloric acid increased from 172.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 197.50 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 14.49%. In the first quarter, the overall price of hydrochloric acid fell by 31.30%.

The hydrochloric acid market fell slightly in the second quarter. In April, the market prices of ammonium chloride and polyaluminium chloride in the downstream of hydrochloric acid fell, the downstream demand was insufficient, and the price of hydrochloric acid fell slightly. The price decreased from 243.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 226.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 6.85%. After the labor day in May, the price of hydrochloric acid increased slightly, from 226.67 yuan / ton to 233.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.94. Then began the decline mode. The price once fell to 223.33 yuan / ton at the end of May, with an overall decline of 1.47% in May. In June, the downstream demand was renewed, the market of ammonium chloride rose sharply, and the price of hydrochloric acid began to rise slightly. The price of hydrochloric acid increased from 223.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 230.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.99%. In the second quarter, the overall price of hydrochloric acid fell by 5.48%.

In the third quarter, the hydrochloric acid market was very good, breaking new highs repeatedly. The upstream liquid chlorine is well supported. Downstream ammonium chloride rose by 36.75% in the third quarter, and polyaluminium chloride rose by 9.03% in the third quarter, with good downstream demand. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products of hydrochloric acid jointly drove the price rise of hydrochloric acid in the third quarter. Hydrochloric acid decreased slightly by 1.45% in July, increased by 29.41% in August and 0.16% in September. In the third quarter, the price of hydrochloric acid increased from 230.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the quarter to 293.80 yuan / ton at the end of the quarter. The overall price of hydrochloric acid increased by 27.74% in the third quarter.

The market of hydrochloric acid rose and fell sharply in the fourth quarter. The price of hydrochloric acid rose sharply in October. After the national day, hydrochloric acid plants in some areas were shut down, and the supply of hydrochloric acid was reduced. In addition, driven by the rising upstream prices, the downstream market rose rapidly and the demand was sufficient. The price of hydrochloric acid reached the highest point of 524 yuan / ton in late October. This is the highest price in 10 years, up 78.35% from the beginning of the month. But the highlight time was not long, and then the price of hydrochloric acid began to fall. In November, the price of hydrochloric acid continued to fall. The support of upstream liquid chlorine was insufficient, the demand for downstream ammonium chloride and polyaluminium chloride weakened, and the price of hydrochloric acid decreased from 386.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 316.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 18.13%. The price of hydrochloric acid fluctuated slightly in December. At this time, the downstream polyaluminium chloride Market stopped falling and rose, the demand turned better, and the price of hydrochloric acid fluctuated narrowly at about 320 yuan / ton. In the fourth quarter, the price of hydrochloric acid rose by 8.24%

The upstream support is insufficient, the downstream procurement is weakened, and hydrochloric acid is bearish in the future

In the middle and early ten days of January, the market of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate slightly. The upstream liquid chlorine finishing is mainly used, and the support is insufficient. Downstream ammonium chloride and polyaluminium chloride market fell and demand weakened. In addition, the Spring Festival is coming, and the upstream and downstream construction is insufficient. On the whole, hydrochloric acid market may decline slightly. It may rise after the Spring Festival.

The price of orthobenzene stopped falling in December

As can be seen from the price trend chart of orthobenzene in business society, the price of orthobenzene stopped falling and stabilized in December. As of December 31, the price of orthobenzene was 6300 yuan / ton, down 4.55% from 6600 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. After the festival, the price of orthobenzene increased by 100 yuan / ton, or 1.59%.

The price of raw material mixed xylene fluctuated and rose

According to the trend chart of mixed xylene in business society, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated and rose in December, and the market of mixed xylene stopped falling and rebounded. Affected by the rise of crude oil price, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated and rose. The cost of o-xylene increases, and the driving force of o-xylene increases.

Downstream phthalic anhydride prices rise

As can be seen from the price trend chart of phthalic anhydride in business society, the price of phthalic anhydride stopped falling and rebounded in December. Since mid December, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose slightly. The downstream market recovered, the demand for o-xylene increased, and the driving force for the rise of o-xylene increased.

Outlook

In December, the price of o-xylene stopped falling and stabilized, the price of mixed xylene stopped falling and rebounded, and the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose. Affected by the sharp rise of crude oil price, the cost of o-xylene increased, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose, the downstream market was good, the driving force for the rise of o-xylene increased, and the price of o-xylene rose after the festival. It is expected that the price of adjacent benzene will fluctuate and rise in the future.

1、 Price data

Figure 1: mainstream price trend of fuel oil from January to December 2021

The monitoring shows that, as shown in the figure above, from January to December 2021, China’s fuel oil 180CST price experienced two rapid and substantial increases and then fell back. During the remaining period, it showed a shock trend as a whole, and the fuel oil 180CST market in 2021 showed a shock upward trend as a whole. According to the data of business agency, on January 1, China’s domestic fuel oil 180CST mainstream reported about 3990 yuan / ton, and as of December 31, the market mainstream reported about 5240 yuan / ton, with an annual increase of about 31.33%; Among them, the highest price in 2021 was about 6140 yuan / ton on October 26, and the lowest price was 3990 yuan / ton on January 1, with an annual maximum amplitude of 53.88%.

Figure 2: Trend of fuel oil commodity index from January to December 2021

On December 31, the fuel oil commodity index was 106.13, unchanged from yesterday, down 14.65% from the highest point of 124.35 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 130.32% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Figure 3: trend chart of mainstream crude oil market from January to December 2021

As shown in the figure above, on the macro level, the crude oil is advancing all the way in 2021, with a shock rise. According to monitoring, WTI crude oil surged from $48 at the beginning of the year to $80 in late October, and fell in shock in the two months at the end of the year. As of December 28, WTI had increased by 56.14% and Brent by 51.50%. The core logic of the rise in oil prices in 2021 is basically highly related to the evolution trend of the epidemic. In addition, supply tightening and economic recovery under the macro background of inflation expectations also provide impetus for the rise of oil prices.

Figure 4: Monthly K-line chart of mainstream fuel oil prices from January to December 2021

As shown in the above figure, the monitoring shows that from January 2021 to December 2021, the mainstream market of fuel oil 180CST in China rose in 7 months, namely January, February, may, June, September, October and December 2021; There are five downward months, namely March, April, July, August and November 2021. As can be seen from the monthly histogram above, October 2021 saw the largest increase of 22.54%, and the month with the largest decline was the first month after the sharp rise, that is, November, with a decrease of 16.09%.

In 2021, China’s fuel oil 180CST price experienced two rapid and substantial increases and then fell back, and the overall trend was volatile in the remaining period:

Figure 5: mainstream price trend of fuel oil from February to March 2021

The first rise was from early February to mid March, and the fuel oil 180CST increased by about 18%. According to the monitoring of business agency, from February to mid March, WTI and Brent crude oil prices increased by more than 26%. Good news continued to spread in the international crude oil market, and inventories in the United States and China fell. In addition, OPEC + is still strictly implementing the production reduction agreement, and the production control effect of oil producing countries is ideal. It is necessary to increase supply and reduce the market price of crude oil. At the same time, the cold wave in the United States limits the supply of shale oil and gas fields in the United States, and accidental factors help rise the price of crude oil. The main factor for the sharp rise in the price of fuel oil 180CST is the sharp rise in the price of bulk commodities caused by the rise in the price of crude oil, the tight supply of marine oil raw materials, the sharp rise in the price, and the cost support of fuel oil 180CST. Secondly, the rise of freight after the Spring Festival is also one of the key factors for the rise of fuel oil 180CST.

Figure 6: mainstream price trend of fuel oil from September to October 2021

The second surge was from early September to the end of October, and the fuel oil 180CST increased by more than 33%. The international crude oil price rose in September. On the one hand, after Hurricane IDA passed through, it brought the greatest destructive force to the oil and gas production in the United States in 13 years, which made the recovery of oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico slow, while the recovery rate of American refineries was faster than that of crude oil. Therefore, the fear of tight supply heated up and boosted the market. On the other hand, the inventory data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) was significantly positive. The U.S. crude oil inventory fell to the lowest level since 2018, superimposed on the increase in refinery demand, and the oil price was strongly supported in the short term. In October, international crude oil prices continued to rise, the economies of major economies in the world continued to recover, and fuel demand rebounded, but U.S. inventories continued to decline, and oil and gas in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico recovered slowly. In addition to the supply restriction policy of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +), the supply-demand gap is expected to give strong support to oil prices, and the impact of natural gas shortage in Europe, oil prices will still rise due to demand in the medium and short term. The global energy crisis has led to the rise of crude oil, the high price of domestic raw materials, cost pressure, and the price of domestic ship fuel market continues to rise. Secondly, affected by environmental protection inspection, energy conservation and emission reduction and other factors, the supply of domestic marine oil raw materials was tight, and the price continued to rise. Supported by the cost of domestic marine fuel market, the price rose sharply to the annual high of 6140 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Figure 7: comparison chart of mainstream market trend of fuel oil from 2019 to 2021

In 2021, the trend of international crude oil prices affected the main factors of the price of the ship’s fuel market. In 2022, it will continue to affect the rise and fall of the shipping market: the potential strength of the US dollar, the spread of Omicron COVID-19 mutation, the recent rise in the crude oil market, the high price of the marine raw materials, and the high cost and high price supporting the ship burning market. Due to the impact of epidemic and other factors, the demand for terminal shipping in 2021 is general, the transaction is light, and just need procurement is the main trend. In 2022, the ship fuel market may continue to focus on just need.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the toluene market is under pressure this month, and the price fluctuates and falls broadly. The price of toluene was 6080 yuan / ton on December 1 and 5570 yuan / ton on December 30; The lowest price in this month is 5570 yuan / ton, and the highest price in this month is 6080 yuan / ton, down 8.39% from the beginning of the month; Compared with the same period last year, the price difference between the highest price and the lowest price in the month was 510 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and review

A large number of ships were sold in Northeast China, the port inventory continued to rise, and the supply of toluene increased, depressing the market price. In addition, the shutdown and maintenance of downstream devices further bearish the market, and toluene fell under pressure. With the continuous rise of crude oil and the strengthening of cost support, the downstream gasoline market rose slightly, and the toluene market rebounded in the second half of the month. However, the downstream demand is mainly regional, the boost is limited, and the market negotiation at the end of the month is light, mainly with narrow fluctuations.

In the external market, toluene in Asia fell in a narrow range in the external market this month. On December 30, the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $693 / T, down US $13 / T or 1.84% from November 30.

In terms of crude oil, the international oil price rebounded after falling to a low at the beginning of the month. The market constantly weighed the impact of Omicron mutant strain on economy and demand, and the international oil price fluctuated and rose. As of December 30, Brent rose $8.75 / barrel, or 12.4%; WTI rose $10.81/barrel, or 16.33%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China rose broadly this month. At the beginning of the month, the price of domestic goods was 14350 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 16000 yuan / ton, an increase of 11.5% over the beginning of the month and 26.32% over the same period last year.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price continued to be stable this month, with the price at 6700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 6700 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price was flat compared with the beginning of the month and increased by 42.55% compared with the same period last year. On December 30, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia was USD 874-876 / T FOB Korea and USD 892-894 / T CFR China.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong fell sharply this month and rebounded slightly in the latter half of the month. The price was 7959.4 yuan / ton on December 1 and 7637 yuan / ton on December 31, down 4.05% from the beginning of the month and up 33.82% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of raw materials, the prospect of crude oil demand is good, and the short-term high level of crude oil fluctuates under the positive influence of high European natural gas prices. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of global climate, epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on output, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and so on on on crude oil prices.

Toluene demand is mainly regional, and the overall market continues to be weak; Toluene port inventory is high, and the contradiction between short-term supply and demand is prominent. Overall, toluene maintains a weak trend in the short term. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external market trend at the raw material end, plant dynamics of enterprises at the supply end, port inventory and downstream purchase at the demand end on the price of toluene.

1、 Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of December 31, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7345.75 yuan / ton, down 5.45% from 7765.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the ground refined hydrogenated naphtha rebounded after falling.

According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of December 31, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic refined straight run naphtha was 7160.00 yuan / ton, down 1.21% from 7247.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month. The price of refined straight run naphtha fluctuated and rebounded at the end of this month.

On December 31, the naphtha commodity index was 90.66, up 0.15 points from yesterday, down 12.27% from the highest point 103.34 in the cycle (2021-10-25), and up 114.63% from the lowest point 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the price of refined naphtha rebounded after falling this month and fell as a whole. At present, the mainstream price of refined hydrogenated naphtha is about 7200-7400 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is about 7000-7300 yuan / ton. In the first ten days of the month, the downstream reformer was not significantly favorable, the transaction was light, the downstream procurement was cautious, a small amount of olefins at the end of the month just needed to be released, and the downstream goods were prepared before the festival, which was actively pushed up by the manufacturers. As of the week of December 29, Singapore’s fuel oil storage fell by 1371000 barrels to a two-and-a-half month low of 19564000 barrels. Singapore’s light distillate stocks fell 517000 barrels to a five week low of 11.505 million barrels. Singapore’s medium distillate stocks fell 26000 barrels to a three week low of 7.896 million barrels.

Upstream: the international crude oil price fluctuated sharply in December, and the Omicron mutant virus spread rapidly, but the symptoms seem to be milder than the previous variants; The market hopes that Omicron will weaken its impact on global demand in 2022 and oil prices will be supported. The main reason is that Saudi Arabia believes that oil supply is still very scarce. In addition, although the epidemic trend is still serious, the symptoms of omiron infected people are relatively mild, which brings some optimism to the market. In a report on Monday, JPMorgan said that Omicron would not have any significant impact on the growth prospects. US stocks were boosted and rose, which was also good for oil prices. In addition, a preliminary survey released on Monday showed that U.S. crude oil inventories may decline for the fifth consecutive week last week, while gasoline inventories are expected to remain generally stable. Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullah Hyan said through the media on the 27th that the parties concerned with the comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear issue began the eighth round of us Iran resumption of performance negotiations in the Austrian capital Vienna on the same day, and will focus on a “new common draft”, which focuses on the “unrestricted” sale of Iranian petroleum oil, and the sale funds will be deposited into Iran’s bank account in foreign currency. However, at present, it is still difficult to promote the negotiations.

Downstream: the toluene market was under pressure in December, and the price fluctuated widely. The toluene price was 6080 yuan / ton on December 1 and 5570 yuan / ton on December 30, down 8.39% from the beginning of the month. Mixed xylene fell slightly in December, and the price of mixed xylene was 5890 yuan / ton on December 1; On December 30, the price was 5860 yuan / ton, down 0.51% from the beginning of the month. In December, the price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable. By the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 6700 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in December 2021, there were 6 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were petroleum coke (20.70%), WTI crude oil (16.33%) and Brent crude oil (14.88%). A total of 9 commodities decreased month on month, and 6 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 37.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were liquefied natural gas (- 30.46%), thermal coal (- 24.19%) and methanol (- 14.26%). The average rise and fall this month was – 3.2%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the energy analysts of business society, the international crude oil rose sharply in December, supported by the cost of naphtha market, a small amount of terminal olefins just needed to be released at the end of the month, the downstream goods were prepared before the festival, and the refineries actively pushed up. It is expected that the price of local refining hydrogenated naphtha in January may be mainly sorted out.