1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business society, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on January 27 was 11166.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, down 13.08% compared with the beginning of the month and up 97.36% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The phosphoric acid market has been running smoothly this week. Recently, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus has not fluctuated much, which has a limited impact on the phosphoric acid market. There is no obvious fluctuation in the price of phosphoric acid. There are few bidding enterprises, and most of them have stopped for vacation. At present, phosphoric acid is mainly based on orders, superimposed with downstream basic holidays, the demand has gradually stagnated, the transportation capacity is limited, and the market trading is rare. According to the monitoring of business agency, the current quotation in Sichuan is 9700-10600 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan is about 9000-9500 yuan / ton, that in Hubei is 11500-12000 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 10500-11500 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu is 9000-12500 yuan / ton. The price of phosphoric acid in all regions is generally stable.

region product Specifications date Price (yuan / ton)

Sichuan region phosphoric acid 85% industrial grade January 27th 9700-10600

Yunnan region phosphoric acid 85% industrial grade January 27th 9000-9500

Jiangsu region phosphoric acid 85% industrial grade January 27th 9500-12500

Hubei region phosphoric acid 85% industrial grade January 27th 11500-12000

Shandong region phosphoric acid 85% industrial grade January 27th 10500-11500

According to the data monitoring of business society, as of January 26, 2022, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream areas of China is around 700 yuan / ton. Compared with January 1 (the ex factory price of phosphorus ore is 690 yuan / ton), the average price has increased by 10 yuan / ton, or 1.45%. Near the Spring Festival, the operating rate of domestic phosphorus ore mines is low, and the supply of phosphorus ore is still tight. Phosphorus ore analysts of business society believe that on the eve of the Spring Festival, the domestic phosphorus ore market will be consolidated at a high level, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand..

Yellow phosphorus, the price focus of domestic yellow phosphorus market is downward. After the new year’s Day holiday, the operating rate of yellow phosphorus has increased, the overall market is relatively cold, the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong, and the transaction of yellow phosphorus market is weak and downward. The Spring Festival holiday is approaching the end of the market, with few new orders and sporadic replenishment. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 31000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 34000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts of the chemical branch of business agency believe that at present, most enterprises have had holidays, and the market demand has gradually stagnated. Phosphoric acid enterprises mainly issue orders before the Spring Festival, and the price is expected to remain stable.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of January 26, 2022, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 9400 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on January 1 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 8300 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 1100 yuan / ton, or 13.25%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that in early January, the inventory of n-butanol factories in Shandong was low, the spot supply was tight, the downstream demand performed well, and the trading atmosphere was positive. With the two-way support of supply and demand, the domestic n-butanol market rose sharply after the new year’s day. In just three days, the cumulative increase of n-butanol market price exceeded 1000 yuan. As of June 6, The average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong rose to 9866 yuan / ton, up 18.88% in three days. Subsequently, the n-butanol market was consolidated at a high level, the on-site wait-and-see mood was increasing, the downstream was resistant to the high price, and the demand for n-butanol became weaker. From the 10th, the n-butanol market fell at a high level, and the transaction focus continued to decline. On the 13th, the ex factory n-butanol in Shandong fell to around 9000-9200 yuan / ton. As of the 15th, n-butanol rose by 8.84% in the first ten days of January.

In late January, approaching the Spring Festival, the downstream began to prepare goods before the festival, and the demand side improved. The delivery of n-butanol performed well and the supply pressure was small. From January 17, the domestic n-butanol market ushered in a rising operation, and the transactions on the floor gathered to the high end. As of January 20, the average outgoing price of n-butanol exceeded 10000 yuan, with a reference of 10033 yuan / ton. Subsequently, the downstream goods preparation was basically completed, the on-site transaction of n-butanol turned weak, and some factories still had the pressure to ship. From the 21st, n-butanol factories sold out again, and the quotation decreased slightly continuously. As of the 26th, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 9200-9500 yuan / ton, the average price was 9400 yuan / ton, and the overall increase of n-butanol in late January was 2.92%.

In terms of upstream propylene, on the 26th, the propylene (Shandong) market fell, and the price adjustment range was reduced compared with that at the beginning of the week. The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 7750-7850 yuan / ton. Due to the approaching Spring Festival, the downstream shutdown or production reduction holiday, the propylene market plunged, the price was at the high level of 8000 yuan / ton, fell rapidly, and the demand support was weak. At the same time, the downstream goods preparation is basically completed, and the supply and demand situation will not change much in the near future. Forecast: propylene is expected to continue to decline in the near future, with a little room for weak consolidation.

Future analysis of n-butanol

At present, as the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream goods preparation has ended one after another. The n-butanol datagrapher of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong has limited fluctuations, and the market is mainly adjusted in multiple ranges. More attention needs to be paid to the basic changes in supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on January 25, the average price of salicylic acid (industrial grade) mainstream manufacturers was 17000 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.99% over the beginning of the month and 22.01% over the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The salicylic acid market rose slightly in January, with an increase of about 1%. After returning from the holiday, the logistics gradually recovered, and the downstream had a strong mood of hoarding goods before the Spring Festival, with positive purchase and good market trading atmosphere. In addition, the strong rise of raw material phenol and the rise of salicylic acid price. In the middle of the year, after the early rise, salicylic acid enterprises mostly focused on stability and wait-and-see, and basically did not make a significant price adjustment. Near the end of the month, the downstream demand is strong, and actively cover positions. In particular, the shipment of industrial salicylic acid is good, the enterprise sales are basically pressureless, the mentality is good, and the price runs stably. By the end of the month, according to the data of business agency, the quotation of domestic salicylic acid industrial enterprises was mostly in the range of 14000-19000 yuan / ton, the quotation of pharmaceutical grade was mostly in the range of 24000-27000 yuan / ton, and the quotation of sublimation grade was mostly in the range of 20000-23000 yuan / ton.

According to the monthly rise and fall from January 1, 2021 to December 30, 2021, the salicylic acid market generally showed an upward trend in 2021. From the above figure, it can be seen that salicylic acid was rising or slightly rising in seven months and falling or stable in other months. Among them, the rise and fall in October was the largest, the highest point of the whole year was December, the average price was 16833.33 yuan / ton, and the lowest point of the whole year was January 5, The average price is 13933.33 yuan / ton. In 2022, salicylic acid still showed an upward trend in January.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic phenol Market maintained a steady progress after a narrow upward trend during the week. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average offer of domestic phenol market was 10937 yuan / ton on January 17, and reached 11175 yuan / ton by the end of 24, with an upward trend of 2.17% during the week. So far, the offer in East China market is about 11150 yuan / ton, that in South China is 11100 yuan / ton, and that in North China and surrounding areas of Shandong is 11200-11300 yuan / ton

3、 Future forecast

According to the salicylic acid analyst of business agency, the market of salicylic acid in January was better, and the price rose steadily with the support of both cost and demand. At present, most of the downstream factories have holidays and the transportation capacity is limited. It is expected that the salicylic acid market will operate smoothly in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the market price of maleic anhydride in China fell slightly this week. As of January 23, the average price of maleic anhydride by benzene hydrogenation remained at 12333.33 yuan / ton, down 0.88% from the average price of 11333.33 yuan / ton on January 17 and 29.79% from the same period last month.

On January 23, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 105.82, unchanged from yesterday, down 36.42% from the highest point of 166.43 in the cycle (2021-12-15), and up 106.76% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The domestic benzene maleic anhydride market started steadily this week. Recently, the downstream unsaturated resin market has successively entered the shutdown period, and the purchasing sentiment is general. As of the 23rd, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 11500 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu was about 11000 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was about 11500 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was about 11500 yuan / ton, and that in South China was about 11000 yuan / ton. Domestic maleic anhydride market price callback, spot tension.

Upstream, the price of pure benzene fell after rising this week. The average price of pure benzene was 7530 yuan / ton on January 14 and 7680 yuan / ton on January 21, up 150 yuan / ton or 1.99% from last week. This week, the market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong increased, from 7400 yuan / ton last weekend to 7600 yuan / ton this weekend, up 200 yuan / ton. In terms of n-butane, the price in Shandong was 6160.00 yuan / ton as of January 23.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of maleic anhydride products of business society believe that at present, the domestic maleic anhydride market is at a high level, and the current spot is limited. However, with the approaching of the Spring Festival, downstream resin manufacturers have entered the shutdown period one after another, and the just needed procurement has been reduced one after another. It is expected that the short-term maleic anhydride market will be dominated by high-level consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of mixed xylene continued to rise this week. On January 14, the price was 6290 yuan / ton; On Friday (January 21), the price was 6330 yuan / ton, up 0.64% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 52.9%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Crude oil rose continuously, with strong cost support, driving up the prices of related commodities and gasoline, and mixed xylene rose. The arrival of ships and cargoes in East China is concentrated, the inventory is under pressure, and the price is weak and stable; The downstream gasoline industry in Shandong Province actively purchased before the festival, and the price rose.

In the external market, the mixed xylene in the external market rose in shock this week. On Thursday (January 20), the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was US $847.5/t, up US $17 / T or 2.05% month on week compared with January 13; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 870 US dollars / ton, up 14 US dollars / ton or 1.64% month on month on January 13.

In terms of crude oil, the crude oil market shows a pattern of weak supply and strong demand, and the prospect of market demand for crude oil is better. Superimposed on the tightening of geographical situation, the international oil price has continued to rise this week. Near the weekend, investors took profits and oil prices fell. As of January 21, Brent rose $1.83 / barrel, or 2.13%; WTI rose $1.32/barrel, or 1.57%.

Downstream, in the PX market, domestic PX rose broadly this week. On Friday (January 21), the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.8% over last week and 55.32% over the same period last year. As of January 20, the closing prices in Asia were USD 961-963 / T FOB Korea and USD 981-983 / T CFR China.

In terms of ox market, the price of ox in East China rose this week. On Friday (January 21), the price of ox in East China was 6800 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.03% over last week and 44.68% over the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong fell slightly after rising this week. The price was 7942.6 yuan / ton on January 14 and 8132.6 yuan / ton on January 21, an increase of 2.39% over last week and 39.13% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the situation of weak supply and strong demand for crude oil continues, and the demand outlook is generally good. The short-term trend of crude oil is strong, which provides good support for relevant bulk commodities. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the global epidemic, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

Crude oil support remained unchanged, but with the end of downstream pre holiday preparation, the demand for mixed xylene weakened, and it was not easy to support the price. Overall, mixed xylene is expected to be dominated by shock consolidation before the festival. Pay attention to mixed xylene port and plant dynamics, downstream market and plant dynamics, as well as the impact of crude oil, external market and other trends on mixed xylene prices.

This week, international crude oil prices continued to rise. As of the 20th press release, Brent crude oil once exceeded US $89. At present, the oil price has reached the highest level in nearly seven years. It is mainly due to the tight supply, the expected continuous fermentation, the difficulty in increasing OPEC + production in oil producing countries, the continuous decline of commercial crude oil inventory in the United States, etc. in addition, the resurgence of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East also raises the risk of supply interruption. In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its oil growth forecast for 2022, and multiple profits made the oil price break the highs repeatedly.

At the macro level, under the background of the epidemic, the global inflation level continued to rise. In December 2021, the US CPI increased by 7% year-on-year, the highest level in 40 years. Under the pressure of inflation, the oil price further increased. Meanwhile, the Fed’s monetary normalization process is further put on the agenda. The market generally believes that the Fed will raise interest rates at least three times this year, and oil prices may face macro pressure in the future.

The most important reason for the rise in oil prices is the good supply side. First of all, OPEC + has consistently implemented a gradual production increase policy since 2020, with a monthly increment of 400000 B / D, which is relatively conservative. Moreover, some countries are facing difficulties in increasing production. On the one hand, OPEC + production is difficult to reach the target level, because the oil industry has not made the necessary investment in the past two years. On the other hand, the output of some member countries, such as Libya and Kazakhstan, fell sharply due to the impact of their own political turmoil. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), OPEC + production in November was 650000 barrels / day lower than the target.

In addition, from the perspective of U.S. crude oil inventory, according to the inventory data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil inventory has fallen for seven weeks, and it is expected that the data to be released on Thursday evening will still decline. Previously released data showed that as of January 7, U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 4.6 million barrels to 413.3 million barrels, the lowest level since October 2018. Previously, analysts expected inventories to fall by 1.9 million barrels. Crude oil inventories remained low, further fuelling the expectation of rising oil prices.

On the demand side, fuel demand is still recovering. In the latest news, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its oil growth forecast for 2022. On Wednesday, the IEA said that the situation in the global oil market seemed more tense than expected. Surprisingly, the Omicron strain had little impact on demand, but caused supply interruption. IEA said in its monthly report that the global market supply is decreasing this year, and the oil demand is slightly higher than that of last month, which is expected to reach 99.7 million barrels / day, about 200000 barrels / day higher than that in 2019. In December 2021, IEA predicted that the oil demand in 2022 would be roughly equal to the level before the epidemic. IEA judged that the rising oil demand was caused by the shortage caused by the risk of supply interruption on the one hand, and the oil demand growth driven by the soaring natural gas price caused by energy shortage on the other hand.

In the future, the crude oil analyst of business society believes that in the short term, the tight balance of crude oil is difficult to ease, which will still be good for the oil price. The oil price is expected to break through $90 and move towards $100. The factors supporting oil prices are: first, OPEC +’s voice in controlling production continues to play a role; second, the resilience of demand growth; and then, the pressure from global high inflation. The first quarter may show a “high before low” trend. At the end of the third quarter, there was a demand for the return of oil prices. On the one hand, the supply continues to recover, including the gradual increase in OPEC + and the further increase in shale oil in the United States. On the other hand, under the influence of the epidemic, the demand side will also show a marginal diminishing effect. Overall, oil prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business society, after new year’s day, hydrogen peroxide showed a rebound, and the price fluctuated and rose. This week, affected by the weakening of terminal demand, the hydrogen peroxide Market callback. As of January 19, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 800 yuan / ton, up 4.35% from the beginning of the month and down 1.64% from the beginning of the week.

Terminal demand turns weak and hydrogen peroxide market goes down

After new year’s day, the hydrogen peroxide market has begun to pick up one after another. In the first week, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market was 780 yuan / ton, up 1.74% as a whole; From the second week, the hydrogen peroxide market remained stable, and the mainstream quotation was 816 yuan / ton. The demand of terminal paper industry and printing industry is general, the quotation of hydrogen peroxide manufacturers is stable, the market is cold, and the hydrogen peroxide continues to be weak and operates stably. This week, the hydrogen peroxide market fell one after another, falling to 750-800 yuan / ton, down 1.64%.

The hydrogen peroxide Market of some domestic manufacturers on January 19 is as follows:

The quotation of hydrogen peroxide of Luxi Chemical is 700 yuan / ton, down 40 yuan / ton from the beginning of the week; The quotation of Hebei Zhengyuan hydrogen peroxide is 750 yuan / ton, which is the same as that at the beginning of the week; The quotation of hydrogen peroxide of Anhui Quansheng chemical is 950 yuan / ton, which is the same as that at the beginning of the week.

Business agency hydrogen peroxide analyst Li Bing believes that near the Spring Festival, the terminal demand for hydrogen peroxide is flat and the future rise is weak.

In mid January, the rebound of domestic propane market was blocked, and the price fell again. The market price of propane in Shandong fell to 5700 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 5995.75 yuan / ton on January 12 and 5773.25 yuan / ton on January 18. The decline rate during the week was 3.71%, down 0.13% compared with January 1.

As of January 18, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

region January 18th

East China 5700-6000 yuan / ton

North China 5700-5800 yuan / ton

Shandong region 5700-5830 yuan / ton

Northeast China 5900-6050 yuan / ton

In the middle of January, the domestic propane market was mainly weak, the Shandong market fell significantly, and the price fell back to 5700 yuan / ton. Although international crude oil rose during the week, it brought limited support to the market. There is a certain deviation in the market trend of the north and south. In the early stage, the market in Shandong decreased significantly, the demand in the terminal market was limited, the downstream market was generally enthusiastic, more rigid procurement was needed, the market was lack of obvious benefits, the trading atmosphere was weak, the manufacturers mainly sold goods one after another, and the price was down. Until the 18th, with the continuous rise of international crude oil, the propane Market stopped falling and the price rose steadily, but the overall increase is still limited.

Saudi Aramco announced in January 2022 that both propylene and butane fell. Propane was 740 USD / T, down 55 USD / T from the previous month; Butane is 710 USD / T, down 40 USD / T compared with the previous month.

At present, the horizontal adjustment of the South and North markets is dominated. Near the Spring Festival, there is a certain replenishment demand in the downstream, the enthusiasm for entering the market has improved, and the market trading atmosphere is mild. In addition, the rise of international crude oil has brought some support to the market. It is expected that the price of propane market will be strong in the short term, but it is still possible to weaken in the long term.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 14400.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 16833.33 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 2433.33 yuan / ton, or 16.90%. Overall, isobutyraldehyde market rose slightly this week.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers increased slightly this week: the ex factory quotation of lihuayi isobutyraldehyde this weekend was 16000 yuan / ton, which increased by 2000 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Liaocheng yuanze isobutyraldehyde offered 17200 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 1800 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Zhenkun isobutyraldehyde offered 17200 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 1800 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde increased slightly this week. The quotation increased from 7780.60 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7886.80 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.36%, an increase of 7.37% over the same period last year. The market price of upstream raw materials increased slightly, and the cost support was strengthened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the downstream industrial chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol increased slightly, and the quotation increased from 16020.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 16520.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 3.12%. The market of neopentyl glycol rose slightly and the spot market was tight, which had a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future forecast

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in late January may rise slightly. The upstream propylene market rose slightly, the cost support was strengthened, the downstream neopentyl glycol market rose slightly, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was good. Isobutyraldehyde analysts of business society believe that the isobutyraldehyde market may rise slightly under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short-term isobutyraldehyde market.

According to the monitoring data, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride on January 14 was 132.19, an increase of 0.3 points compared with yesterday, a decrease of 7.33% compared with the highest point of 142.64 points in the cycle (2021-11-01), and an increase of 56.77% compared with the lowest point of 84.32 points on August 18, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

As shown in the figure, according to the monitoring data of business society, the market of water treatment products has continued to fluctuate slightly recently (January 10-14, 2022): the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminium chloride on the 10th was 2478.89 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation on the 14th was about 2445.56 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.34%. Considering the current epidemic situation and the approaching Spring Festival, the number of enterprises that stopped production before the year increased, the inventory was sufficient, the demand was general, and the transaction was weak; Affected by the inventory situation, different enterprises have different prices. Some enterprises stopped production years ago and have tight inventory. Combined with the local increase of freight cost, the price of polyaluminium chloride has increased to a certain extent; It is understood that at present, most enterprises have sufficient inventory and the overall market is weak.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, the monitoring data of hydrochloric acid: business society shows that recently (January 10-14, 2022), the domestic market price of hydrochloric acid has been flat at 324 yuan / ton, which has lasted for nearly 10 days. At present, the upstream liquid chlorine market is falling, giving poor support to hydrochloric acid, and the downstream ammonium chloride market is falling slightly. It is expected that the domestic hydrochloric acid market price may fluctuate slightly in the near future.

LNG is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic LNG market fluctuated and decreased this week. The average domestic price was 4763.33 yuan / ton on January 10 and 4610 yuan / ton on January 14, down 3.22% this week. The domestic liquid market has changed from continuous rising after the festival to frequent falling, and the price has also continued to decline. This week’s decline was mainly due to the start-up and resumption of production of early maintenance liquid plants and the increase of market supply. However, due to the impact of recent public health events in Henan and other places, the start-up of some end users was limited, the demand decreased, the shipping atmosphere of liquid plants weakened, the sales pressure increased, the prices fell again and again, fell back below 5000 yuan in many places, and the market focus moved down rapidly. The LNG analyst of business society believes that under the current situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the market, the domestic liquid market is weak. Although the raw material gas flow auction boosts the market, the decline of domestic liquid price slows down or rises slightly, it is difficult to form an inflection point. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will be mainly adjusted in a narrow range.

Future forecast: due to the current severe epidemic situation and the impact of spring break, more and more enterprises have stopped production, but the market supply is sufficient, the upstream raw material hydrochloric acid market continues to be stable, the downstream purchase intention is not strong, the trading continues to be weak, and the polyaluminium chloride Market has little change. It should be noted that the logistics costs in some areas of the main production areas will rise to a certain extent due to the epidemic and the Spring Festival, and the future market of polyaluminium chloride may rise due to this impact.