According to the monitoring of business agency, the price trend of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid fell sharply this week. As of the 4th, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 12720 yuan / ton, down 9.34% from 14030 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 48.42% year-on-year.

The price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid fell sharply this week. Up to now, the mainstream price negotiated in various regions of domestic hydrofluoric acid is 12000-12500 yuan / ton. The quotation of some manufacturers is higher than the market price, and the actual transaction price on the floor is mainly lower. Recently, the domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal, but the downstream acceptance is gradually declining, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid is significantly lower.

Recently, the spot of hydrofluoric acid in the domestic market is normal, and the hydrofluoric acid unit in the field operates stably, but the price trend of fluorite, the upstream raw material of hydrofluoric acid, has increased slightly. Up to now, the mainstream hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the south is 12000-12300 yuan / ton, and the hydrofluoric acid price in the northern market is 12000-12500 yuan / ton. Recently, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has dropped, the downstream construction has maintained a low level, there is a lack of actual good in the field, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has declined due to bad factors.

The market price trend of hydrofluoric acid raw material fluorite rose slightly. As of April 4, the domestic fluorite price was 2861.11 yuan / ton, and the price trend rose by 0.59% this week. Recently, the domestic spot supply of fluorite was tight, and the construction of domestic fluorite units declined. In addition, due to the influence of rain, snow and cold weather in northern China, some affected units stopped, so the supply in the field decreased, Domestic fluorite prices rose slightly this week. Up to now, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiation is 2700-2900 yuan / ton. The maintenance of fluorite price in the venue is a good support for the hydrofluoric acid market. The price demand of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is poor, and the trend is down.

The price trend of domestic downstream refrigerant products has fallen sharply, the operating rate of the refrigerant industry in the field has remained low, and the sales of the automobile industry have been normal recently, but the quota of refrigerant manufacturers is insufficient, the refrigerant market continues to fall, the demand is mainly based on demand, and the refrigerant industry market is low. As a whole, the refrigerant market is mainly sharply lower, and the price of chloroform is lower, which makes the cost of the refrigerant industry drop. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is declining. The start-up of major refrigerant mainstream manufacturers is still not high, and the market supply is normal, but the demand is not improved. The demand in R22 market application field is reduced, and enterprises reduce prices for sales. The price of mainstream manufacturers has a downward trend. Up to now, the market price of R22 is in the range of 20000-23000 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a in China declined, the price of trichloroethylene remained, the cost was under pressure, the phenomenon of closing and stopping the report of R134a increased, the market price fell, and the trading focus fell. At present, the market quotation of R134a is in the range of 35000-41000 yuan / ton, the high price transaction is weak, the market sentiment is poor, the enterprise’s eagerness to ship is obvious, the actual transaction is more profitable, the downstream refrigerant market continues to decline, and the resistance to the high price of raw hydrofluoric acid increases. Affected by this, the price of hydrofluoric acid drops sharply.

From the industrial chain chart, the price trend of fluorine chemical industry has dropped, and the price trend of raw material fluorite has increased. However, the price of sulfuric acid raw material has decreased significantly, and the price of downstream refrigerant products has maintained a downward trend. In addition, the recent stable operation of domestic hydrofluoric acid units and the poor acceptance of high levels in the downstream have been affected by various negative effects, Chen Ling, hydrofluoric acid analyst of business agency, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid is under pressure, and the price is mainly slightly lower in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Business agency: the price of maleic anhydride fell in November and rebounded at the end of the month

According to the data of business agency, as of November 30, the average offer price of maleic anhydride was 12400.00 yuan / ton (including tax), a decrease of 24.85% compared with 16500.00 yuan / ton on November 1.

On December 1, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 119.32, up 2.51 points from yesterday, down 24.00% from the highest point 157.00 in the cycle (2021-10-28), and up 133.14% from the lowest point 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In November, the market price of maleic anhydride fell sharply and rebounded at the end of the month. In November, the international crude oil fell violently and the domestic chemical price fell. The downstream unsaturated resin market fell as a whole, mainly in need of procurement. As of the 30th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 12000 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu was about 12000 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was about 12000 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was about 11500 yuan / ton, and that in South China was about 12500 yuan / ton.

International crude oil prices fell sharply in November. Firstly, since the middle of the year, the outbreak of the European epidemic has aroused investors’ concerns about the demand outlook, and oil prices began to enter the downward channel. Second, in order to deal with domestic inflation, the United States has been committed to suppressing the decline of oil prices. On the 19th, it announced that it would unite with multinational governments to release strategic oil reserves. Affected by supply expectations, oil prices are falling sharply. Finally, on the 26th, a new crown variant strain was found, causing market panic, market concerns about the recovery of future demand, a huge earthquake in the capital market, and oil prices fell sharply with the global stock market.

In November 2021, the hydrobenzene market fluctuated downward. The ex factory price in North China was 7580 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 6940 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decrease of 8.44%. In November, the hydrobenzene market fluctuated in the first half of the month and decreased sharply in the second half of the month. Affected by the sharp decline of market price and the high price of raw material crude benzene, the operating rate of benzene hydrogenation enterprises continued to decline in November, and the maintenance and load reduction devices increased recently. Compared with pure benzene, the start-up and shutdown costs of hydrogenated benzene enterprises are lower, and most manufacturers schedule their production according to their profits.

3、 Future forecast

According to the maleic anhydride product analysts of business society, the domestic maleic anhydride market continued to decline in November, the price of downstream resin raw materials fell, the willingness to receive goods in the downstream was low, the hydrobenzene market was weak, and the market operation was cautious. The domestic maleic anhydride market rebounded at the end of the month, the maleic anhydride price was stable and upward, most of them closed and waited, and the manufacturer’s shipment slowed down. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may rebound in December.

In November 2021, the domestic 1# tin ingot market price fluctuated widely, but the overall trend remained upward. The average price in the domestic market was 287262.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 296887.50 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 3.35%.

On November 29, the tin commodity index was 150.79, down 0.25 points from yesterday, down 0.84% from 152.06 points (2021-10-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 251.82% from 42.86 points, the lowest point on December 9, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

In November, after many shocks in the tin market, the overall market is still an upward trend. In the first ten days of the year, the US dollar index of fundamentals rose, and the base metals were generally under pressure. On November 1, the latest data of LME tin inventory was 680 tons, of which basheng port decreased by 285 tons. This data was the lowest in recent 30 years. Low inventory boosted the market, and tin prices rebounded with the support of low inventory. After the middle of the year, it entered a wide-ranging shock trend, which was mainly affected by factors such as fundamental environmental protection, limited production and tight supply at the mine end. The futures market fluctuated, driving the sharp shock of the spot market. In the latter half of the year, the market cooled slightly, mainly with narrow range shocks. There were many tin markets in the month, and LME inventory fluctuated significantly, driving the ups and downs of the futures market. It can be seen that tight inventory and supply are still the main factors affecting the fluctuations of tin market.

Supply and demand: Jiangxi, the main production area, has gradually shrunk under the influence of environmental protection factors, enterprises have gradually resumed production, and commodities will enter circulation in the near future. Production is limited in some areas of Yunnan, which lasts for a short time and has limited impact on the market. Overall, it is expected that the domestic output will increase slightly in the near future. Import: Myanmar’s import is still blocked, Mengbo port is still closed, the subsequent tin import is expected to decline, and the tight supply at the mine end will continue. Overall, the current tin market is mixed with bad and good, and the supply is still low. In terms of downstream demand, it is difficult to have bright spots in the short term. It still maintains on-demand procurement, and the demand is weak. In the environment of weak supply and demand in Tin City, it is expected that Tin City will still maintain a volatile trend.

Relevant data:

According to the latest data report released by the world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs) on the 21st, there was a supply shortage of 1400 tons in the global Tin City from January to September 2021. China’s demand is calculated on an apparent basis using the reported inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange. From January to September 2021, the global reported refined tin output increased by 23000 tons compared with the same period last year. China reported that production fell to 11500 tons in July, but rebounded to 15400 tons in August and was estimated to be 15000 tons in September. Japan’s apparent demand was 22000 tons, an increase of 43% over the same period in 2020. China’s apparent demand decreased by 1% compared with the same period last year. From January to September 2021, the global demand for tin was 292600 tons, an increase of 3% over the same period last year. The apparent demand of the United States increased by 3.8% year-on-year to 23700 tons. In September, refined tin production was 29400 tons and consumption was 28600 tons.

On November 29, 2021, the tin inventory of London Metal Exchange (LME) was 1240 tons, increased by 10 tons, reaching a new high in recent two months (unit: tons)

Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, on November 30, the average early trading price of silver market was 4717.33 yuan / kg, a decrease of 2.63% compared with the average early trading price of spot market at the beginning of the month (November 1); Compared with the beginning of the year (01.01), the spot price of silver was 5550 yuan / kg, a decrease of 14.99%.

On November 30, the spot market price of gold was 370.19 yuan / g, down 0.42% from the spot market price of 369.60 yuan / g at the beginning of the month (11.01); Compared with the spot price of gold at the beginning of the year (01.01), 392.70 yuan / g, down 6.28%.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent 1 year

The convergence of precious metal gold and silver is relatively good, the price amplitude of silver is large, and the direction is basically the same. Recently, at the end of September, the price of silver fell rapidly, and the rise and fall of precious metal prices converged. After the return of the national day, the price of silver hit the bottom and rebounded, and the fluctuation amplitude of silver price was large. According to the annual rise and fall, the rise and fall of precious metals are converging at present.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Last Friday, affected by the panic of the mutational epidemic in South Africa, the superposition of the dumping of US strategic reserves led to the release of multinational crude oil reserves to the market, affected the supply of crude oil market, suppressed the sharp decline in crude oil prices to a certain extent, and the risk commodities fell sharply. The hedging function of precious metals was highlighted. With the easing of sentiment, the price of precious metals fell slightly.

Message surface

The FOMC meeting minutes in November released by the Federal Reserve, the expectation of “raising interest rates in advance” and the expectation of accelerating the reduction of bond purchase rose, and the price of precious metals was suppressed to some extent last week. On Friday, South Africa’s COVID-19 variety news, superimposed crude oil storage and distribution of information, causing risk assets to move down, boosting the precious metals’ hedging needs.

On the whole, the monetary policies of governments tend to reduce stimulus measures, and raising interest rates will often push up bond yields and increase the opportunity cost of holding non interest bearing asset gold; With the disappearance of the epidemic panic, the precious metal market corrected sharply today. It is expected that the rising space of precious metal prices will narrow in the short term, dominated by weak volatile market.