On December 16, the price of aluminum fluoride was temporarily stable

According to the data of business agency, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 14366.67 yuan / ton on December 16, which was temporarily stable compared with 14366.67 yuan / ton on the previous trading day (December 15), and the aluminum fluoride market was stable.

The market of upstream and downstream products remained stable

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of hydrofluoric acid was temporarily stable on December 16, and the price of hydrofluoric acid was 12720.00 yuan / ton on December 16, which was temporarily stable compared with that on December 15 of the previous trading day; Compared with 13630 yuan / ton on December 1 at the beginning of the month, the price of hydrofluoric acid was temporarily stable this week, the cost of aluminum fluoride was temporarily stable, the rising power of aluminum fluoride was weakened, and the downward pressure remained.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the aluminum price on December 16 was 19033.33 yuan / ton, down 0.49% from 19126.67 yuan / ton on December 15 of the previous trading day; Compared with the aluminum price on December 13, it rose by 1.82%, and compared with the aluminum price of 18900 yuan / ton on December 1, it rose by 0.71%. The price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and rose, and the market recovered, which was limited to the benefit of aluminum fluoride.

Market overview and forecast

The aluminum fluoride industry analyst of business agency believes that the price of hydrofluoric acid, the raw material of aluminum fluoride, has remained stable recently, the price of downstream electrolytic aluminum has recovered, the cost of aluminum fluoride has remained stable temporarily, the demand for aluminum fluoride has remained stable, the positive support of aluminum fluoride has weakened, and the downward pressure is limited. The price of aluminum fluoride is temporarily stable and there is a risk of high decline.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business society, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on December 15 was 16666.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 1166 yuan compared with 10500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, an increase of 11.11% during the cycle and 134.11% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In December, the phosphoric acid market continued to rise, with an increase of about 11% in the past half a month, and the focus shifted upward. Recently, the price of phosphoric acid has risen mainly due to the rise of raw material yellow phosphorus and the reluctance to sell. Supported by the cost side, the market of phosphoric acid has risen. Enterprises have increased their quotation according to their own inventory situation, with the maximum increase of 2000 yuan. Some enterprises still focus on clearing inventory, and the price is maintained in the early stage, or closed, and the market price is relatively chaotic. Towards the end of the year, the purchasing mood in the downstream is still not high. It continues to focus on just demand, and the transaction of high-priced phosphoric acid is not smooth. Both buyers and sellers hold a wait-and-see mentality, and the demand side support is general. At present, the price of yellow phosphorus is high at about 45000. The cost of phosphoric acid enterprises is under pressure and the commencement is affected to a certain extent. However, most enterprises have inventory, so the supply gap is small. According to the monitoring of the business community, the quotation in Sichuan is 10500-12000 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan is about 12500 yuan / ton, that in Hubei is 10500-11500 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 10500-11500 yuan / ton, and that in Shanghai is 11000-13000 yuan / ton. The price of phosphoric acid in various places is rising steadily.

According to the weekly rise and fall from September 20, 2021 to December 12, 2021, it can be seen that the rise and fall show each other in the phosphoric acid cycle. In September, the main actor opened the downward channel since October, and continued to rebound and rise in November, but the fluctuation was significantly narrower than that in the previous period.

On December 14, the reference price of phosphate rock was 686.67, an increase of 0.98% compared with December 1 (680.00). Towards the end of the year, the downstream began to prepare goods, and the supply and demand support did not change much in the short term. Therefore, phosphate rock analysts of business society believe that in the short term, most of China’s domestic phosphate rock market will continue to operate at a high level and stably, More attention should be paid to the news changes on the supply and demand side.

On December 14, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 43250.00, an increase of 13.32% compared with December 1 (38166.67). This month, the environmental protection supervision team stationed in Guizhou, the electricity price in Yunnan will be increased next month, and the cost will increase. At present, the spot is tight and the order is good. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus may continue to rise in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analyst of the chemical branch of the business society, the raw materials have been raised at present, and there are still upward expectations. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market may continue to rise following the cost side, but the demand follow-up is insufficient, so some increases are restrained.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of December 14, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 8833 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that on December 10. Compared with the price on December 1 (the reference average price of n-propanol was 9866 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 1133 yuan / ton, a decrease of 10.47%.

Since the beginning of December, the domestic n-propanol market has been running down as a whole. Dragged down by insufficient demand, the confidence of n-propanol industry has decreased, and the quotation of n-propanol holders has been gradually reduced. As of December 10, the average ex factory price of domestic n-propanol has fallen to 8833 yuan / ton, 1033 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 10.47% in the first ten days of the month. After the market of n-propanol fell to a low point, the downstream bargain hunting and replenishment, the transaction orders increased slightly, and the weakness of the demand side improved. Until this week, the domestic n-propanol market finally stopped falling and stabilized, the supply and demand side of the venue was calm, and the n-propanol market was opened for temporary stable consolidation and operation. As of December 14, the ex factory price of n-propanol in Shandong was around 8300-8800 yuan / ton, The ex factory price of low-end n-propanol in Nanjing is around 9000-9500 yuan / ton. At present, the supply side of n-propanol is mainly tight, the demand is mostly continuous, just need to purchase, and the trading atmosphere is acceptable. Local dealers still have reservations about the price. The price is not easy to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. Each region also has differences. It is mainly based on actual single negotiation, and we will wait and see the change of raw material price and shipment in the future.

In terms of upstream ethylene, on December 13, in the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted us $636-654 / ton, down US $16 / ton. Recently, the US ethylene market has been stable and the demand is general. On December 13, according to the European ethylene market, FD northwest Europe quoted us $1354-1363 / T, down US $4 / T, and CIF northwest Europe quoted us $1274-1282 / T, down US $6 / T. On December 13, Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quoted us $1056-1066 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia quoted us $1041-1051 / ton.

Internationally, on December 13, international oil prices closed lower. The settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was US $71.29/barrel, down US $0.38 or 0.53%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $74.39/barrel, down US $0.76 or 1.01%. Oil prices fell on Monday, mainly due to market concerns about the negative impact of the mutant strain Omicron on the economy and dampening oil demand.

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the performance of the supply and demand side of n-propanol is relatively stable. The analysts of the business society believe that in the short term, most of the domestic n-propanol market will continue to operate stably. It does not rule out that individual n-propanol suppliers adjust prices according to their own inventory range. More attention should be paid to the specific changes in supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride soared this week. As of December 12, the average price of benzene hydrogenation maleic anhydride remained at 16833.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 31.17% over the average price of 12833.33 yuan / ton on December 6, and an increase of 10.26% over the same period last month.

On December 12, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 158.57, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 209.83% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The domestic benzene maleic anhydride market started steadily this week. International crude oil rebounded and domestic chemical prices rose; The operating rate of the downstream unsaturated resin market is basically stable, the price rises, and the just need to purchase is the main. As of December 12, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 16000 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu was about 16000 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was about 16000 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was about 18000 yuan / ton, and that in South China was about 16500 yuan / ton. Affected by the epidemic this week, shipments in Zhejiang were blocked, factories in other regions limited shipments, on-site supply was tight, and maleic anhydride prices continued to rise.

Upstream, the price of pure benzene rose this week. On December 5, the average price of pure benzene was 6310 yuan / ton, and on December 12, the average price was 6450 yuan / ton, an increase of 140 yuan / ton or 2.22% over last week. This week, the market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong increased, from 6050 yuan / ton last weekend to 6325 yuan / ton this weekend, up 275 yuan / ton. In terms of n-butane, the price in Shandong was 5350.00 yuan / ton as of December 12.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 49th week of 2021 (12.6-12.10), there are 28 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, including 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.9% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were maleic anhydride (31.17%), yellow phosphorus (12.66%) and crude benzene (6.15%). A total of 52 commodities decreased month on month, and 12 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 11.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were melamine (- 21.08%), R134a (- 16.60%) and silicone DMC (- 14.90%). The average rise and fall this week was – 1.12%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the maleic anhydride product analysts of business society, affected by the epidemic this week, shipments in Zhejiang were blocked, factories in other regions limited shipments, on-site supply was tight, maleic anhydride prices continued to rise, the downstream continued to rise, the downstream was cautious in catching up, and there was a strong wait-and-see mood. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may fluctuate at a high level in the near future.

441# silicon price trend

Regional 441# silicon prices on October 10 are as follows:

The price range of #441 metal silicon in Huangpu port is 21300-21800 yuan / ton, with an average price of 21550 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Tianjin port is 21500-22000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 21750 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Kunming is 21000-21500 / ton, with an average price of 21250 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Sichuan is 21200-21500 yuan / ton, with an average of 21350 yuan / ton; The price range of Shanghai #441 metal silicon is 24000-25500 yuan / ton, with an average price of 34750 yuan / ton.

This week, the price of metal silicon further explored. It is understood that the shipment of metal silicon is poor and the market trading atmosphere is light. The upstream and downstream are in a game state, and the silicon price operates weakly and stably at the beginning of the week. Although the market atmosphere is weak, the light cost is in a favorable position. At the end of the week, the downstream demand was weak and the upstream inventory was overstocked. In order to stimulate the transaction, it was sold at a lower price.

Downstream market conditions

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic polysilicon market fell slightly, with a weekly decline of 0.88%. At present, the polysilicon material price range is 165000-21000 yuan / ton, and the single crystal material price range is 258000-269000 yuan / ton; The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable, and the mainstream quotation was 19000 yuan / ton; The average price of organosilicon DMC market quotation is 26480 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on December 5 (reference price 30600 yuan / ton), the average price is reduced by 4120 yuan / ton, a decrease of 13.46%.

The downstream performance of polysilicon was weak, the early price continued to operate at a high level, and the manufacturer’s shipment speed slowed down, resulting in accumulated inventory. In December, the manufacturer had great pressure to reduce the price and go to the warehouse. The market has peaked and loosened; The aluminum processing industry has greatly reduced production and reduced demand; Silicone enterprises began maintenance one after another, and the demand for chemical grade industrial silicon weakened.

Silicon market supply

According to the statistics of business agency, China’s industrial silicon output in November was 300000 tons, an increase of 10.1% month on month and 29.5% year-on-year; In November, the domestic inventory reached 69300 tons, and the domestic metal silicon inventory began to increase from July. The electricity prices of Yunnan and Sichuan in the dry season are generally raised. At this stage, there is no large-scale shutdown and production reduction of silicon plants. In addition, the coal price shows signs of rebound this week, the electricity price advantage of non main production areas is replaced, the cost pressure increases, and the shutdown of manufacturers is enhanced. It is expected that the large-scale production reduction in Southwest China will be in late December.

Future forecast

The metal silicon market continues to maintain a weak atmosphere, the demand side procurement remains cautious and wait-and-see, the price of raw coal is explored, the cost pressure is increasing day by day, the downstream energy consumption dual control policy still has a certain impact on the aluminum industry and the continuous maintenance of silicone plants. In the future, the metal silicon market is expected to return to the balance of supply and demand. Business analysts believe that in the short term, the price of metal silicon will be mainly weak, but the space for further decline will be narrowed.

1、 Price trend

The domestic market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly this week. The quotation in the mainstream market fell from about 15000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to about 14000 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down by 1000 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream manufacturers of neopentyl glycol fell this week: the distribution price of Shanghai Qihua Wanhua neopentyl glycol at the weekend was 13800 yuan / ton, which fell by 1200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; The distribution price of Shanghai Qihua Jihua neopentyl glycol at the weekend was 13800 yuan / ton, which was 700 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; The distribution price of Shanghai Qihua Korea LG neopentyl glycol over the weekend was 15000 yuan / ton, which was 1000 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; The distribution price of Shandong Zhiying Wanhua neopentyl glycol at the weekend was 16320 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. The weekend distribution price of Shandong Zhiying Jihua neopentyl glycol is 16320 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week.

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the isobutyraldehyde market fell sharply this week, and the market price fell from 7800.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 7000.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 10.26%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell sharply, which had a negative impact on the price of neopentyl glycol due to the impact of supply and demand.

3、 Future forecast

In mid December, the overall trend of neopentyl glycol market may decline slightly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market fell sharply, the cost support weakened, the downstream coating market was general, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was weak. Analysts of neopentyl glycol of business society believe that the short-term neopentyl glycol market may decline slightly under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the data monitoring of business society, as of December 9, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream areas of China was around 687 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on December 1 (the reference average price of phosphate rock was 680 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 7 yuan / ton, or 0.98%, and compared with the price on November 1 (the reference average price of phosphate rock was 663 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 24 yuan / ton, or 3.52%.

This week, China’s domestic phosphate ore market rose slightly as a whole. Supported by the tight supply side, the domestic phosphorus ore market can be described as “not light in the off-season”. The market price of medium and high-end phosphorus ore in the field has always maintained a high and firm quotation, and the overall transaction in the market is expected to continue to move closer to the high end. In addition, the overall performance of downstream yellow phosphorus has gradually warmed up, giving phosphorus ore some positive support. On December 8 in the middle of this week, mining enterprises in some parts of China raised the market price of medium and high-end phosphorus ore slightly again. In Guizhou, the freight yard price of 28% phosphorus ore increased by 20 yuan / ton. At present, the ex factory price of 28% phosphorus ore is around 580-620 yuan / ton, the price of 30% phosphorus ore increased by 20 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 30% phosphorus ore is around 630-670 yuan / ton. The market situation of phosphorus ore in Guangxi has also gathered slightly upward. The freight yard prices of 28% grade and 30% grade phosphorus ore have also been increased by about 20 yuan / ton. After adjustment, the ex factory price of 28% grade phosphorus ore is around 590-630 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 30% grade phosphorus ore is around 640-680 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream of the domestic phosphorus ore market maintains stable procurement, and the supply and demand side of the plant is normal.

According to the business agency, the following is the current price of phosphate rock in some parts of China (for reference only)

product region grade Price remarks

Phosphate rock Guizhou 30% 630-670 yuan / ton Factory price

Phosphate rock Guizhou 28% 580-620 yuan / ton Factory price

Ammonium phosphate ore Hubei 28% 660-680 yuan / ton Plate price

Phosphate rock Guangxi 30% 630-670 yuan / ton Factory price

Phosphate rock Guangxi 28% 560-620 yuan / ton Factory price

After years of development, China’s phosphorus ore industry has formed a mature industrial chain, which is mainly divided into three links. Among them, the upstream participants are phosphorus ore mining equipment suppliers, including civil blasting equipment suppliers and mining machinery equipment suppliers; The main participants in the middle reaches are phosphorus ore mining enterprises, which are the owners of phosphorus ore resources and mining technology; The downstream participants are phosphorus chemical enterprises, and the main products are yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid.

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, in December, the domestic yellow phosphorus Market as a whole showed a steady upward trend, the downstream maintained on-demand procurement, and the on-site supply was tight. According to the test data of business agency, the reference average price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan Guizhou region was 40000 yuan / ton on December 9, compared with the price on December 1 (the reference average price of yellow phosphorus was 38166 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 1834 yuan / ton, or 4.80%.

Forecast and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

At present, the phosphorus ore market as a whole continues to operate stably, the downstream demand is normal, and more new orders are supplied to old contract customers. Therefore, phosphorus ore analysts of business society believe that the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole will continue to operate at a high level and stably in the near future, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of December 8, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 14600 yuan / ton, flat compared with December 1, down 12.92% compared with November 8, and down 10.61% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

In the near future (12.1-12.8), the market price of propylene oxide is mainly stable. At the beginning of June, the price of raw propylene went down, the cost support was loose, and the downstream follow-up was slightly insufficient, but the factory inventory was low, supporting the price, and the market operated at a stable price. With the small rise in the price of raw propylene, the cost side was slightly supported, the factory inventory was still controllable, the demand side performance was cold, more cautious, and the market was in a stalemate, On the 8th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 14200-14300 yuan / ton.

For upstream propylene, on December 8, the price of propylene in Shandong was temporarily stable, and the mainstream offer of propylene in Shandong was 7550-7600 yuan / ton. The repair after the sharp drop of upstream oil price provides support for the rise of propylene, but the main downstream polypropylene market continues to fluctuate and weaken, the supply of propylene market is sufficient, the downstream demand is weak, and the contradiction between supply and demand still exists.

Downstream propylene glycol, according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on December 7, the domestic propylene glycol market was weak and downward. The average ex factory price of propylene glycol was 17233 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous working day, the average price was reduced by 400 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.37%. On the 7th, the trading atmosphere in the domestic propylene glycol market was cold, and the downstream demand was cautious. The factory’s offer was adjusted downward and the center of gravity operated downward.

The propylene oxide analyst of business society believes that at present, the price of raw propylene has increased slightly, and the cost support has been strengthened slightly. Although the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, the factory pressure is temporarily controllable. It is expected that the propylene oxide market may be dominated by deadlock in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

Cobalt prices continued to rise this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, the domestic cobalt price rose sharply this week, and the overall cobalt market fluctuated and rose. As of December 7, cobalt price was 465100 yuan / ton, up 3.38% from 449900 yuan / ton on December 1 at the beginning of the month; Compared with the price of 441100 yuan / ton at the beginning of last week, the price of cobalt increased by 5.44%. Cobalt prices continued to rise sharply this week, and the cobalt market recovered.

The rise of international cobalt prices slowed down

According to the LME trend chart, the recent LME international cobalt price continued to rise. In December, the LME cobalt price continued to rise. On December 6, the cobalt price fell slightly, the rise of the international cobalt price slowed down, which weakened the positive impact on the domestic cobalt market, and the overall domestic cobalt price rising power fell slightly.

Cobalt prices hit a new high in three years

According to the data monitoring of business society, the cobalt price has continued to rise since mid November. As of December 6, the average price of cobalt was 465100 yuan / ton, a new high since November 2008.

The impact of the epidemic in South Africa is lower than expected

Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of allergy and infectious diseases and chief medical adviser of the White House, said on Sunday (December 5) that Omicron’s preliminary data were “a little exciting” in terms of toxicity. Earlier data from South Africa showed that the mutant strain may not be as bad as initially feared. Preliminary observations of people infected with Omicron toxicity in South Africa showed that the patient had only mild symptoms. The epidemic situation was lower than expected, the transportation of the epidemic situation to South Africa was lower than expected, the concerns about the reduction of cobalt supply were alleviated, and the positive effect of cobalt price was weakened.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the business agency, believes that the recent rise in international cobalt prices has stimulated the rise in the domestic cobalt market, and the domestic cobalt price has reached a record high since November 18; The rising trend of international cobalt price slowed down, and the rising support of domestic cobalt Market weakened; The impact of the epidemic in South Africa was lower than expected, and the fear of supply shortage in cobalt city was alleviated. Overall, the supply shortage of cobalt market is alleviated, the demand is still strong, and the rising power of cobalt price is weakened. It is expected that the future cobalt price will fluctuate and rise, with a short-term decline risk.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price trend of sulfur (granular sulfur) in East China decreased slightly this week. On December 3, the sulfur quotation was 2000.00 yuan / ton. Compared with the price of 2010.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, it decreased by 0.50% during the week and 5.81% month on month.

The domestic sulfur market fluctuated. During the week, the prices of refineries in various regions were adjusted, the downstream entered the market and purchased on demand, and the on-site mentality was on the sidelines. During the week, refineries in various regions adjusted their prices according to their own shipments. The mainstream price of liquid sulfur in East China was 2010-2090 yuan / ton; Liquid sulfur in North China will be reduced by 30 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price will be 1670-1850 yuan / ton; The price of liquid sulfur in Shandong is reduced by 20 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 1850-1880 yuan / ton. As of December 3, the regional prices of sulfur (particles) in China are as follows:

region varieties November 27th December 3rd Rise and fall

East China Sulfur (particle) 1920-1990 yuan / ton 1940-2020 yuan / ton + 20/+30

North China Sulfur (particle) 1780-1910 yuan / ton 1750-1910 yuan / ton – 30/0

Shandong region Sulfur (particle) 2030 yuan / ton 1990 yuan / ton – forty

The downstream phosphate fertilizer market has been reorganized and operated, the progress of fertilizer storage in winter is slow, the domestic market demand is weak, the transaction of new orders in the field is general, and the overall market is weak. The ammonium market continued to decline on Monday, with the price falling by 4.98% during the week. There were weak procurement, poor order transactions of manufacturers, and the quotation continued to decline during the week. The market price of diammonium rose slightly by 0.28% this week. The transaction of enterprises is general and the market is mainly wait-and-see. In terms of supply and demand performance, ammonium phosphate Market is weak.

According to the sulfur analysts of the business society, the current sulfur market is dominated by consolidation and operation, the domestic refinery inventory is maintained at a low level, and the enterprise shipment is smooth. However, the market demand for phosphate fertilizer is weak, and the terminal consumption does not support sulfur enough. The quotation of domestic refineries is reduced. The future sulfur market will wait and see consolidation and pay attention to the market follow-up.