1、 Price trend

According to the commodity data monitoring, the price of titanium concentrate will rise in 2021. The average price of domestic titanium concentrate was 1975 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year and 2220 yuan / ton at the end of the year. The price rose by 12.41% during the year.

2、 Market analysis

Product market

From the market development in 2021, the trend of titanium concentrate in this year is like a roller coaster, with big ups and downs. From January to February, the price was relatively stable, from March to may, the price was in the stage of rapid rise, from June to July, from August to September, the price rose again, and from October to November, the price decreased again. Prices rebounded in December.

From January to February, the price of titanium concentrate was relatively stable, and the price of 10 titanium ore was 1950-1980 yuan / ton; The quotation of 47 and 20 mines is about 2100 yuan / ton, and the quotation excluding tax of 38 and 42 mines is 1330-1350 yuan / ton. The price of titanium concentrate is mainly adjusted and operated.

From March to may, the price of titanium concentrate increased gradually. At this time, the titanium concentrate supply side is tight as a whole, the titanium ore start-up in some areas is still low, there are many early orders from manufacturers, and the spot supply in the market is tight. The price of 46,10 titanium ore from small and medium-sized manufacturers is 2400-2450 yuan / ton; The quotation of 47 and 20 mines is about 2500 yuan / ton, and the quotation excluding tax of 38 and 42 mines is 1630-1670 yuan / ton. Most miners are more willing to rise. The spot of titanium concentrate continues to be tight, some miners are reluctant to sell, and the miners have no intention to ship at a low price. 10. Compared with the previous period, the market price of titanium ore increased by about 500 yuan / ton.

From June to July, titanium concentrate was in a rapid decline stage. The downstream titanium dioxide is under started, the price drops, the titanium ore market is dominated by weak operation, the prices of small and medium-sized miners are lower, and the prices of large factories are dominated by stability. At this time, the quotation excluding tax of 38 grade titanium ore is 1500-1550 yuan / ton, that of 46 grade 10 titanium ore is 2150-2250 yuan / ton, and that of 47 grade 20 ore is 2450-2550 yuan / ton. 10 titanium ore fell by about 200 yuan / ton.

From August to September, the price of titanium concentrate rose again. Titanium ore in Yunnan is affected by environmental protection, and the spot supply is tight. At this time, the tax free quotation of 38 grade titanium ore is about 1650-1700 yuan / ton, that of 46 grade 10 titanium ore is about 2450 yuan / ton, and that of 47 grade 20 ore is about 2500-2550 yuan / ton. 10 titanium ore rose by about 200 yuan / ton.

From October to November, the price of titanium concentrate entered the stage of gradual decline. The titanium concentrate market is relatively cold, the downstream titanium dioxide market is light, enterprises mainly purchase on demand, and the wait-and-see mood is obvious. At this time, the tax free quotation of 38 grade titanium ore is about 1430-1500 yuan / ton, that of 46 grade 10 titanium ore is about 2150-2280 yuan / ton, and that of 47 grade 20 ore is about 2500-2550 yuan / ton. 10 titanium ore fell by about 300 yuan / ton.

In mid December, the titanium concentrate market gradually warmed up, the market trading of downstream titanium dioxide enterprises improved, the transaction in titanium ore market was ok, and the market price gradually increased. Up to now, the tax free quotation of 38 grade titanium ore is about 1450-1500 yuan / ton, that of 46 grade 10 titanium ore is about 2160-2220 yuan / ton, and that of 47 grade 20 ore is about 2500-2550 yuan / ton. The increase is about 50 yuan / ton.

Import data

According to the statistics of the customs, from January to November 2021, the imported titanium ore was about 3557100 tons (including titanium wool and titanium middling), an increase of 8435000 tons (including titanium wool and titanium middling), an increase of 31.08%, compared with 2713600 tons (including titanium wool and titanium middling) from January to November 2020. The annual import volume is expected to be 3.8 million tons.

Yield analysis

According to public data, China’s titanium ore output was 6.04 million tons in 2021, an increase of 11% year-on-year, of which Panzhihua increased by 7%, accounting for 78% of the total domestic output. Due to the good market demand, the demand for Chengde mine continues to increase, with an increase of 58% over last year. Xinjiang titanium mine increased by 122% compared with last year. Due to different market conditions, titanium mines in other regions increased and decreased by different ranges.

3、 Future forecast

The titanium concentrate analyst of the chemical branch of business society believes that panmu came to see that the supply of titanium concentrate Market in the western region is tight, the transaction of titanium ore market is OK, the market trading of downstream titanium dioxide enterprises is improved, and the market support is strong. It is expected that the titanium ore market has good confidence in the short term, and the overall market turnover has increased steadily, but the increase is limited.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, the price of acetic acid decreased significantly in December. The average price of acetic acid at the beginning of the month was 6590 yuan / ton, the price at the end of the month was 6180 yuan / ton, the price decreased by 410 yuan / ton within the month, a decrease of 6.22%, and the price increased by 35.33% year-on-year.

As of December 29, the details of acetic acid market prices in various regions in China during the month are as follows:

region December 1st December 15th December 29th

South China 6500-6600 yuan / ton 6000-6100 yuan / ton 6000-6100 yuan / ton

North China 6350-6450 yuan / ton 6050-6200 yuan / ton 6000-6200 yuan / ton

Shandong region 6300-6450 yuan / ton 6050-6250 yuan / ton 6050-6250 yuan / ton

Jiangsu region 6350-6450 yuan / ton 6000-6100 yuan / ton 6000-6100 yuan / ton

Zhejiang region 6450-6550 yuan / ton 6100-6200 yuan / ton 6100-6200 yuan / ton

In December, the acetic acid market was weak. At the beginning of the month, most domestic acetic acid plants operated normally. Although some enterprises had equipment maintenance, due to the early preparation of goods, the market supply was sufficient, while the downstream demand was weak, and the focus of the acetic acid market continued to move downward under the trend of oversupply. In the middle of the year, there was news from the supplier that acetic acid stopped in East China. During this period, the downstream demand increased, and the enterprise’s acetic acid quotation increased slightly. At the end of the month, the market demand tends to be flat. In addition, the inventory of acetic acid enterprises is maintained in a rational range, the supply and demand performance is relatively balanced, and the market situation is stable and the trend continues.

< the market trend of downstream ethyl acetate continued to decline in December. The quotation on December 29 was 8783.33 yuan / ton, down 6.73% from 9416.67 yuan / ton on December 1. In December, the demand for ethyl acetate was general, and some downstream industries entered the traditional off-season. The superposition of environmental protection policies affected some downstream purchase demand. On the supply side, the inventory of large domestic manufacturers was high, the market cost was weak, and the supply and demand side affected the weak downward trend of ethyl acetate Market.

The market outlook of acetic acid is expected. Analysts of business society believe that the inventory of domestic acetic acid enterprises is rational, the downstream demand just needs to be followed up, and the overall performance is relatively stable. After the recovery of Nanjing Yangzi Bibi acetic acid plant in the later stage, the market supply will increase, and the short-term market trend will be stable temporarily. The future market will pay specific attention to the market supply.

Recent price trend of potassium chloride

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers fell this month, and the quotation fell from 3190 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2890.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 300 yuan / ton, or 9.40%. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 33.80%. On December 27, the commodity index of potassium chloride was 91.75, the same as yesterday, down 11.62% from the highest point of 103.81 in the cycle (2021-10-12), and up 57.51% from the lowest point of 58.25 on August 6, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from March 1, 2012 to now)

In December, the domestic potassium chloride market generally showed a downward trend. In terms of domestic potassium: the largest producer of potassium chloride in China, the leading enterprise of potassium fertilizer and Salt Lake Co., Ltd. operated at a low level, and the price of potassium chloride decreased from 3190 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2890 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price of Zangger holdings is relatively consistent with that of salt lake group. The bidding price of domestic 60% potassium market mostly ranges from 3600-3800 yuan / ton, but it is basically out of stock, waiting for the release of new goods in January. Port potassium: at the end of the month, the quotation of port potassium gradually maintained stability. The quotation of 62% white potassium at the port was about 4050 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of 60% Dahong granular potassium at the port was about 4000 yuan / ton. The market transaction was limited, down about 50-100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month. In terms of border trade potassium: at the end of the month, the price of 62% white potassium was 3700-3800 yuan / ton, down about 50-100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month. The supply of goods is limited and the transaction is limited.

Downstream procurement enthusiasm increased, and the price of potassium chloride increased

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the ex factory price of potassium carbonate fluctuated and rose this month. The quotation increased from 8100.00 yuan / ton on December 1 to 8166.67 yuan / ton on December 28, an increase of 66.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.82%, an increase of 26.13% over the same period last year. Recently, the supply of potassium carbonate is tight, manufacturers ship goods according to orders, traders are reluctant to sell, there are few circulating goods in the market, and the market continues to rise. The downstream potassium carbonate market rose, which had a positive impact on the price of potassium chloride due to the impact of supply and demand.

The ex factory price of potassium nitrate increased slightly this month. The quotation increased from 5800.00 yuan / ton on December 1 to 5866.67 yuan / ton on December 28, an increase of 66.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.15%, and a year-on-year increase of 41.75%. The potassium nitrate Market has a good digestion of supply, the market supply is tight, most traders are reluctant to sell and control the supply. There are few supply sources on the market, the downstream procurement is active, and the potassium nitrate market rises. The market price of downstream raw materials rose slightly, which had a positive impact on the price of potassium chloride due to the impact of supply and demand.

Guarantee supply and stable price of domestic potash fertilizer, mainly temporarily stable in the future

In winter, the start-up of Salt Lake and zangge plant continues to be low, the output of domestic potassium chloride is gradually declining, and the supply of goods is tight. The winter storage market has started one after another, and traders take a small amount of goods. From the perspective of industrial demand, the overall operating rate of the downstream market of potassium chloride is not high, and it is mainly just needed to purchase. While the international potash price is high, the domestic potash is still likely to rise. Potassium chloride analysts of business society believe that the domestic potassium chloride price may fluctuate slightly in the short term, focusing on the news related to large contracts.

Since the Spring Festival in 2021, driven by the collective rising bull market of chemical bulk products, the domestic calcium carbide market has shown a volatile rise in the first three quarters and a rapid decline in the fourth quarter. After several rounds of ups and downs in the first half of the year, the price of calcium carbide finally broke through the high point of 8000 in late October, reaching a new high in recent ten years. However, the highlight time is not long. In late October, the price of calcium carbide fell sharply, and the increase was basically spit back. According to the data monitored by the business club, the mainstream factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China was 3890.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year and 4666.67 yuan / ton at the end of the year, an increase of 19.97% during the year. The lowest price of the whole year was 3083.33 yuan / ton at the end of January, and the highest price of the whole year was 8100.00 yuan / ton in late October, with a maximum amplitude of 162.70% in the year.

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From the annual comparison chart of calcium carbide prices, the highest price of calcium carbide in 2021 was 8100.00 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 189.29% over the same period last year. On December 26, 2021, the calcium carbide commodity index was 124.45, unchanged from yesterday, down 41.36% from the highest point of 212.23 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 124.27% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to the period since September 1, 2011)

Market Review

In the first quarter, the calcium carbide market experienced twists and turns, showing a “down up down” trend as a whole. January continued the downward trend of December 2020, with insufficient downstream demand and weak trading atmosphere, with a decrease of 20.74% for the whole month. In February, after the Spring Festival, the price of calcium carbide began to rise sharply. The sharp rise in calcium carbide prices can be divided into two stages. The main reason for the rise of calcium carbide price in February is that the closure of large foreign PVC factories, the surge of PVC exports, the rise of demand and the sharp rise of PVC price drive the rise of calcium carbide price. The price of calcium carbide increased from 3050.00 yuan / ton on February 18 to 3566.67 yuan / ton on March 1, an increase of 16.94%. After March, the price of calcium carbide rose mainly because of the strict policy of “double control of energy consumption” in Inner Mongolia, the power supply of calcium carbide plant was limited and shut down, the supply of calcium carbide fell sharply, the supply of calcium carbide was in short supply, and the price of calcium carbide rose sharply. The price of calcium carbide increased from 3566.67 yuan / ton on March 1 to 5116.67 yuan / ton on March 21, an increase of 43.46%. Later, due to the weakening demand, the price of calcium carbide began to fall sharply in late March.

In the second quarter, the overall calcium carbide market showed a “W” shape trend. In early April, the downward trend in late March continued, and the demand weakened. The price of calcium carbide decreased from 4200 yuan / ton to 4000 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.76%. Since late April, the price of blue carbon began to rise sharply, from 700 yuan / ton to 1400 yuan / ton, an increase of 100%. Driven by the cost, the price of calcium carbide began to rise sharply. As of mid May, the price of calcium carbide increased from 4000 yuan / ton to 4733.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 18.33%. From late May to early June, the price of blue carbon fell, PVC began maintenance, cost support weakened, and downstream demand decreased. The price of calcium carbide fell from 4733.33 yuan / ton to 4116.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 13.03%. In early June, the price of calcium carbide began to rise slightly. The price of blue carbon rose to about 1500 yuan / ton, and the maintenance of PVC plant was completed. Under the dual advantages, the price of calcium carbide rose from 4083.33 yuan / ton to 4683.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 14.69%.

In the third quarter, the calcium carbide market was very good, rising for three waves, and the calcium carbide price soared all the way to 7600 yuan / ton at the end of September. The first rise occurred in mid and late July. The price of calcium carbide increased from 4700 yuan / ton to 5100 yuan / ton, an increase of 8.51%. At this time, the downstream PVC futures broke through the 9000 mark, and the favorable downstream led to the rise of calcium carbide. The second rise occurred in mid and late August. At this time, affected by the dual control policy of energy consumption, the output of calcium carbide decreased sharply, and it was difficult to find a car from time to time. The price of calcium carbide increased from 5133.33 yuan / ton to 5483.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.82%. The third rise occurred in late September. The price of calcium carbide rose from 5450 yuan / ton to 7600 yuan / ton, a sharp rise of 39.45%. At this time, the price of blue carbon in the upstream rose sharply from 1700 yuan / ton to 2300 yuan / ton, with strong upstream support. Downstream PVC futures trading, spot broke 10000, demand is good. At the same time, under the influence of the dual control policy of energy consumption, the output of calcium carbide is insufficient, the supply exceeds the demand, and the calcium carbide rises sharply.

In the fourth quarter, the overall calcium carbide market showed a “Z” shape trend. In October, the favorable trend of September continued, and the price of calcium carbide finally broke 8000, which was the highest price of calcium carbide in recent ten years or in history, resulting in a historical moment. The price of orchid charcoal soared all the way, up to about 3400 yuan / ton. The spot price of PVC broke through to the historical highest of 14525 yuan / ton. Energy consumption is double controlled, and the output of calcium carbide has always been low. Under multiple factors, the price of calcium carbide climbed to this high point. There will be big ups and downs. From late October to early November, the price of calcium carbide fell sharply. The price of calcium carbide decreased from 8033.33 yuan / ton to 4433.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 44.81%. In just 10 days, the price of calcium carbide fell to the level in mid March. At this time, the state issued the coal policy, the price of blue carbon fell to about 1600 yuan / ton, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the policy, the futures price of downstream PVC futures continued to fall, and the spot market quickly fell. From mid November to the end of November, the price of calcium carbide hit the bottom and rebounded, rising from 4433.33 yuan / ton to 5233.33 yuan / ton. At this time, the price of blue carbon rose slightly and the cost support increased. In December, the price of calcium carbide began to fall all the way again. The price decreased from 5233.33 yuan / ton to 4666.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 10.83%. At this time, the downstream PVC construction fell, the demand for calcium carbide decreased, and the market trading was light.

The upstream support is general, the downstream procurement is weakened, and calcium carbide is bearish in the future

In the middle and early ten days of January, the calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly and mainly fell. The prices of raw materials coke and blue carbon were adjusted at a low level, and the cost of calcium carbide was generally supported. The downstream PVC market fell slightly and the downstream demand weakened. It is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in the middle and early days of January.

According to the monitoring of business society, as of December 23, there were 7 commodities rising in the list of fluorine chemical prices in 2021, and the monitored products rose across the board, including R134a (77.14%), aluminum fluoride (56.73%) and hydrofluoric acid (33.47%); The average annual increase and decrease of this year was 32.84%. Let’s take a look at the rise and fall of each product in 2021:

As can be seen from the above chart, the refrigerant industry rose sharply in 2021, with R134a rising by 77.14% and R22 rising by 27.91%; The sharp rise in the downstream refrigerant market has formed a certain positive support for the upstream products. The prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid products have increased in varying degrees. Let’s focus on the trend of related products in this product chain:

It can be seen from the figure that the prices of fluorite, hydrofluoric acid and downstream refrigerant products have increased. First, take a look at the price trend of fluorite products in 2021:

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price trend of domestic fluorite rose in 2021. The average price at the beginning of the year was 2718.89 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic fluorite at the end of the year was 28.6111 million tons, an increase of 5.23% for the whole year. It can be clearly seen from the fluorite price trend chart that the highest price of fluorite in 2020 appears in the middle of December, the highest price is 2877.78 yuan / ton, the lowest price of fluorite appears on July 30, and the lowest price is 2611.11 yuan / ton. The price of fluorite fluctuates little throughout the year, and the overall trend rises.

The price trend of the whole year is roughly divided into three stages. The first stage is from the beginning of the year to mid March, and the price of domestic fluorite market rises slightly; In the second stage, from late March to the end of July, the domestic fluorite price fell sharply; The third stage is from August to the end of the year, and the price trend of fluorite continues to rise. In the first stage, the domestic fluorite market price rose slightly. The price at the beginning of the year was 2718.89 yuan / ton, and the price in mid March was 2766.67 yuan / ton. The price trend increased by 1.76%. In the second stage, the domestic fluorite price decreased from 2766.67 yuan / ton to 2611.11 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.62%. In the third stage, the price of fluorite rose sharply. At the beginning of this stage, the domestic refrigerant industry rose sharply. Supported by the favorable downstream market, the price of fluorite rose. Then, with the cold weather, the supply of fluorite in the field declined, resulting in the high price of fluorite. At the end of the year, the price of fluorite was 2861.11 yuan / ton, and the increase in the third stage was 9.57%.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the market price of hydrofluoric acid increased in 2021. The price of hydrofluoric acid at the beginning of the year was 9530 yuan / ton, the price at the end of the year was 12720 yuan / ton, and the annual increase was 33.47%. According to the price trend chart, the lowest price of the whole year appeared on January 1, and the average market price was 9530 yuan / ton. The highest price of the whole year appeared on November 22, and the average market price was 14030 yuan / ton, The maximum amplitude of hydrofluoric acid Market in 2021 is 47.22%.

The market trend of hydrofluoric acid can be roughly divided into four stages. The first stage is from the beginning of the year to mid April. The market price of hydrofluoric acid rises. The price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid rises from 9530 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 10622.22 yuan / ton in mid April, an increase of 11.46%. The second stage is from late April to the end of June, when the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid fluctuated and decreased, from 10622.22 yuan / ton in late April to 10000 yuan / ton on June 30, a decrease of 5.86%. The third stage is from early July to the end of November. The domestic hydrofluoric acid market price rises rapidly, from 10000 yuan / ton in early July to 14030 yuan / ton at the end of November, an increase of 40.30%. During this period, the hydrofluoric acid market price trend soars. The fourth stage is from the beginning of December to the end of the year. The market price of hydrofluoric acid rose and callback, and the overall decline in December was 6.68%. Recently, the price of fluorite in the upstream of hydrofluoric acid has remained high. The ex factory price of domestic fluorite is about 2860 yuan / ton. The start-up of domestic fluorite units has declined. The mines and flotation units in the site have stopped, and the fluorite supply in the site is tight. The high price of fluorite is a good support for the market price of hydrofluoric acid. At this stage, the correction range of hydrofluoric acid is small.

Refrigerants will rise and fall sharply in 2021, with an overall upward trend. According to the data monitored by the business society, the mainstream average price of R22 at the beginning of the year was 14333 yuan / ton, and the mainstream average price at the end of the year was 18333 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 27.91%. The lowest price in the whole year was 14000 yuan / ton in January, and the highest price was 2666.67 yuan / ton in October. The average mainstream price of R134a at the beginning of the year was 17500 yuan / ton, and the average mainstream price at the end of the year was 31000 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 77.14%. The lowest price in the whole year was 17500 yuan / ton in January, and the highest price was 50666.67 yuan / ton in the second half of October and the first half of November. In the first half of the year, it showed a steady upward trend, while in the second half of the year, under the influence of the dual control policy of raw materials and energy consumption, the price rose rapidly, R22 and R134a reached a new high in recent three years, and then the price fell sharply due to factors such as lack of cost support and weak demand. It was a roller coaster market with sharp price fluctuations. On the whole, the refrigerant industry rose in 2021.

In the future, domestic environmental protection will not be reduced, some domestic fluorite manufacturers will still be unable to operate normally, and the supply of domestic fluorite market will be limited to a certain extent. However, with the increase of fluorite import, the price of imported fluorite is low, which will continue to impact the price of domestic fluorite market. Therefore, in the whole year of 2022, the maximum price of fluorite market will not exceed 3100 yuan / ton, Affected by the strengthening of domestic environmental protection, the minimum price of fluorite will also remain above 2500 yuan / ton in 2022. For hydrofluoric acid, the price may remain low at the beginning of 2022. With the advent of the peak season of the refrigerant industry, manufacturers in the domestic refrigerant industry will prepare goods and gradually start up the repaired refrigerant units. At that time, the market price of hydrofluoric acid may rise, the price may rise, and the price will rise to 14000 yuan / ton. In the third quarter, the upward pressure of hydrofluoric acid market increased, or the price will gradually decline. It is expected that the annual price will be 12500-14000 yuan / ton. The short-term sharp rise in 2021 is not easy to copy or bring into 2022. It is about to enter January, and R22 rebounds slightly. Although it is good in the short term, the new quota is opened, and it is expected that the price may not continue to rise. The transaction at R134 high price is not smooth, the enterprise inventory pressure is obvious, and the price is expected to continue to decline. More attention should be paid to the trend of raw materials and the guidance of market news.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou decreased. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 43500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 42000 yuan / ton at the weekend. The price decreased by 3.45% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Yellow phosphorus prices fell this week. The overall market trading is light, the transaction price drops, the downstream purchases on demand, and the trading volume of new orders is small. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus is about 43000 – 44000 yuan / ton. For the ex factory acceptance transaction of net phosphorus, refer to around 40500-41000 yuan / ton. The downstream is more resistant to high price yellow phosphorus, and the overall market demand is weakened.

In terms of phosphate rock, according to the data monitoring of business society, as of December 22, the reference average price in the mainstream areas of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China was around 690 yuan / ton. Compared with December 1 (the reference price was 680 yuan / ton), the average price was increased by 10 yuan / ton, or 1.47%. Business society phosphorus ore analysts believe that the phosphorus ore market will continue to operate at a high level and stably in the near future.

In terms of coke, according to the price monitoring of business society, the price of primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 2494 yuan / ton and that of secondary metallurgical coke was 2438 yuan / ton on December 23. Near the end of the year, due to the impact of environmental protection inspection, the supply of coking coal may be tightened. Due to the impact of the Winter Olympic Games, the production of coal mines in the main producing areas is limited, and the supply is expected to decrease. In the near future, the downstream coke procurement is good and the demand support is strong. In the spot market, the current price is still temporarily stable, the scope of raising continues to expand, the first round of raising has not been implemented yet, and the game mentality of coke steel has intensified. In terms of downstream demand, the willingness of steel mills to replenish goods has increased, and there is a demand for winter storage. On the whole, coke enterprises have the upper hand, and it is expected that the coke market will remain stable, medium and strong in the short term.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid runs downward. According to the monitoring of business society, the average price of phosphoric acid at the beginning of the week was 11666.67 yuan / ton, and the average price at the weekend was 11466.67 yuan / ton. The price decreased by 1.71% during the week. At present, the price of raw materials is lowered, and the cost support is gradually weakened. It is mainly adjusted with the price of raw yellow phosphorus. It is expected that phosphoric acid will operate weakly and stably in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of the business community believes that the price of yellow phosphorus fell this week, and the downstream is more resistant to the high price of yellow phosphorus. There is more wait-and-see in the field, mainly sporadic procurement in the downstream, and the market transaction is weak and downward. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be stable temporarily in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of December 22, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 10633 yuan / ton. Compared with December 1 (the participating price of butanone was 10366 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 267 yuan / ton, or 2.57%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that in the first two days of early December, the domestic butanone market operated steadily as a whole, the trading atmosphere on the floor was weak, and the overall market changed little. The quotation of butanone manufacturers was basically stable, and the downstream procurement was not active. On the 4th, the overall market of domestic butanone market decreased slightly, and some factories reduced the ex factory price of butanone slightly, The reduction range was around 100 yuan / ton, and then the butanone field maintained a weak consolidation operation until the 8th. Supported by the tight supply in the spot market and the fair export performance, the factory raised the ex factory price of butanone for three consecutive days. On the 10th, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone rose to 10500 yuan / ton. Two days after the consolidation operation of butanone market, on the 13th, with the support of the continuous tightening of butanone supply side, The butanone market rose again in a narrow and small range, with an increase of 100-200 yuan / ton. As of the 15th, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone was around 10400-10800 / ton. As the downstream demand was not significantly boosted, the support given to butanone by the demand side was poor, and the price of butanone was greatly increased in the market. Therefore, the butanone market has maintained a high level since the last ten days. Until the 21st, large domestic enterprises raised the quotation of butanone, and the supply of butanone suppliers in the venue was limited. Most of them followed up with the market, but the downstream purchase and preparation intention was still flat, and the transaction of new orders was limited. As of the 22nd, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone was 10633 yuan / ton, with an increase of 2.57% in the month. At present, the overall demand for butanone in the field is general, and the stalemate between supply and demand has been revealed.

In terms of index, the butanone commodity index on December 21 was 115.58, up 0.36 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 129.05% from the lowest point of 50.46 on March 3, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from November 1, 2012 to now)

On the upstream side, the domestic liquefied gas market is short of positive recently, and the price has fallen continuously. The price of civil gas in Shandong has mostly fallen below the 5000 yuan / ton level. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 5220.00 yuan / ton on December 12 and 4950.00 yuan / ton on December 20, with a decrease of 5.17% during the week and an increase of 41.03% compared with the same period last year. Recently, the overall trend of the domestic liquefied gas market continues to be weak, the focus of Shandong civil gas market continues to move downward, and the price mostly falls below the 5000 yuan / ton level. At present, the market is lack of good. The downward trend of international crude oil shocks has brought insufficient support to the market. Although the supply of Shandong market has not fully recovered and operates at a low level, the improvement of terminal demand is insufficient. The recent cooling of the weather is not obvious, the market demand is limited, the downstream mentality is cautious, and the enthusiasm to enter the market is not high. The manufacturer’s inventory is increasing gradually, focusing on profit making shipment. The domestic civil liquefied gas market is mainly weak, and the civil gas market in other regions has also been reduced to varying degrees.

Future analysis of butanone

At present, the short-term demand of the domestic butanone market has not been significantly boosted. Downstream users are more cautious in preparing goods and watching the market. The butanone data division of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will be consolidated and operated in a narrow range, the price will be adjusted in multiple ranges, and the sharp fluctuation of the market is limited. It is necessary to pay more attention to the trend changes of supply and demand.

Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, on December 21, the average early price of silver market was 4681.67 yuan / kg, a decrease of 0.52% compared with the average early price of 4706 yuan / kg in the spot market on Monday (December 17); compared with the spot price of 5550 yuan / kg at the beginning of the year (01.01), a decrease of 15.65%.

On December 21, the spot market price of gold was 368.98 yuan / g, down 0.61% from the spot market price of 371.25 yuan / G on Monday (December 20), up 0.70% from the early average price of 366.42 yuan / g in the spot market price in early December (December 1); compared with the spot market price of 392.70 yuan / g at the beginning of the year (01.01), down 6.04%.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent 1 year

 
The convergence of precious metal gold and silver is relatively good, the price amplitude of silver is large, and the direction is basically the same. After the recent silver price reduction, it was adjusted at a low level.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Today’s macro policy factors

On December 21, 2021, the people’s Bank of China successfully issued RMB 5 billion six-month central bank bills in Hong Kong, with a bid winning interest rate of 2.50%. The bid winning interest rate of 7-day reverse repurchase operation in the open market was 2.2%, and the bid winning interest rate of 14 day reverse repurchase operation was 2.35%, which were the same as before.

Recent long short logic of precious metals

Recently, with the landing of taper expectation to suppress gold prices, the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve announced to accelerate debt reduction, and the precious metal rebounded rapidly after bottoming. The precious metal was supported by risk aversion and “boots landing” in the short term. However, the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates is still the pressure on gold and silver.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the domestic maleic anhydride market price rose first and then declined this week. As of December 19, the average price of benzene hydrogenation maleic anhydride remained at 17100.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.58% over the average price of 16833.33 yuan / ton on December 13, and an increase of 23.32% over the same period last month.

On December 19, the maleic anhydride industrial chain index was 137.36, down 0.12 points from yesterday, down 4.46% from the highest point 143.77 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 192.38% from the lowest point 46.98 on April 4, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The domestic benzene maleic anhydride market started to decline this week. The international crude oil fluctuates, and the direction to the domestic chemical price is unclear; Recently, the downstream unsaturated resin market has started relatively stably, finishing is transitional, and just needs to be purchased. As of the 19th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 16000 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu was about 16000 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was about 16000 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was about 16000 yuan / ton, and that in South China was about 15000 yuan / ton. Affected by the epidemic situation in the early stage of this week, shipments in Zhejiang were blocked, factories in other regions limited shipments, on-site supply was tight, and maleic anhydride prices continued to rise; In the later stage, the high price of domestic maleic anhydride market fell, the tight supply situation in the early stage was relieved, the maleic anhydride shipment in South China was normal, and the new production capacity began to be sold abroad. At present, there is no pressure on domestic maleic anhydride shipment.

Upstream, pure benzene fell after rising this week. The average price of pure benzene was 6450 yuan / ton on December 12 and 6620 yuan / ton on December 19, an increase of 170 yuan / ton or 2.64% over last week. The market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong rose this week, at 6325 yuan / ton last weekend and 6650 yuan / ton this weekend, up 325 yuan / ton. In terms of n-butane, as of December 19, the price in Shandong was 5330.00 yuan / ton.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 50th week of 2021 (12.13-12.17), there are 35 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, including 10 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 9.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were lithium hydroxide (12.95%), isobutyraldehyde (12.50%) and dichloromethane (10.07%). A total of 41 commodities decreased month on month, and 10 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 9.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were melamine (- 13.71%), chlorinated paraffin (- 9.93%) and potassium chloride (- 9.40%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.08%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the maleic anhydride product analysts of business society, at present, the high price of domestic maleic anhydride market has fallen, the early supply tension has eased, the maleic anhydride shipment in South China is normal, and the new production capacity has begun to be sold abroad. At present, there is no pressure on domestic Maleic anhydride shipment, the downstream wait-and-see situation is dominant, the bearish mood is strong, and the just need to purchase is dominant. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may continue to decline in the near future.

Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea price increased slightly this week. The quotation increased from 2456.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2548.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 3.75%, a year-on-year increase of 38.73%. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, and there is an upward trend at the weekend. On December 17, the urea commodity index was 118.51, up 1.86 points from yesterday, down 18.03% from the highest point of 144.57 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 113.15% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Cost support was strengthened, downstream demand improved, and urea supply was insufficient

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea increased slightly this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea is quoted at 2700 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2530 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 120 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng urea quoted 2510 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 110 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Yangmei plain urea quoted 2500 yuan / ton this weekend, up 90 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea increased slightly this week as a whole: the price of LNG increased slightly, and the quotation increased from 4373.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4633.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 5.95%, a year-on-year decrease of 13.66% compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 1082.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1056.25 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 2.42%, up 39.67% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia increased slightly. The quotation increased from 4410.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 4460.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 1.13%, a year-on-year increase of 37.94% compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the upstream support of urea is good, which has a positive impact on the price of urea. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell sharply this week, and the quotation fell from 12726.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 10700.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 15.92%.

From the perspective of demand: the promotion of agricultural demand is accelerated, and industrial demand is mainly wait-and-see. Agricultural fertilizer preparation began to increase in some areas, and the winter storage of chemical fertilizer is expected to accelerate. The market price of melamine fell sharply, the inventory of enterprises was under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation weakened. In terms of supply, some gas head enterprises stopped production for maintenance, and the daily output of urea decreased slightly. On the whole, urea cost support was strengthened, downstream demand improved, urea supply was insufficient, and urea increased slightly in the future.

Urea prices are bullish in the future

In late December, the domestic urea market rose slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that the upstream natural gas and coal prices rise slightly, the cost support is good, the promotion of fertilizer winter storage is accelerated, urea enterprises enter the centralized maintenance period, the supply is tight, and the future urea market price may fluctuate slightly.