1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the domestic maleic anhydride market continued to decline this week. As of November 14, the average price of benzene hydrogenation maleic anhydride remained at 15266.67 yuan / ton, down 5.57% from 16166.67 yuan / ton on November 8 and up 7.26% from the same period last month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The domestic benzene maleic anhydride market started upward this week. International crude oil fell after rising, and domestic chemical industry was mainly weak; The market price of unsaturated resin in the downstream fell, mainly in need of purchase. As of the 14th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 13500 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu was about 13500 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was about 13500 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was about 13500 yuan / ton, and that in South China was about 14000 yuan / ton.

Upstream, the price of pure benzene first rose slightly and then fell this week. On November 7, the average price of pure benzene was 7590 yuan / ton, and on November 14, the average price was 7560 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton, or 0.4%. This week, the market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong decreased, from 7650 yuan / ton last weekend to 7600 yuan / ton this weekend, down 50 yuan / ton. In terms of n-butane, the price in Shandong was 5920 yuan / ton as of November 14.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 45th week of 2021 (11.8-11.12), there are 21 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, including 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 1.9% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were ammonium sulfate (8.05%), glycine (6.18%) and coal tar (high temperature) (3.90%). A total of 55 commodities decreased month on month, and 14 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 13.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were flake alkali (- 21.77%), organosilicon DMC (- 19.63%) and chloroform (- 15.16%). The average rise and fall this week was – 1.81%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of maleic anhydride products of business society believe that at present, there is a strong bearish sentiment in the domestic maleic anhydride market, the price of downstream resin raw materials falls, the hydrobenzene market is weak, the market operation is cautious and the wait-and-see sentiment is strong. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may have a downward trend in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of pure benzene first rose slightly and then fell this week. On November 7, the price of pure benzene was 7550-7600 yuan / ton (average price 7590 yuan / ton). On Sunday (November 14), the price of pure benzene was 7450-7650 yuan / ton (average price 7560 yuan / ton). The average price decreased by 30 yuan / ton or 0.4% compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 89.95%.

2、 Analysis and review

This week, affected by the weakness of crude oil and styrene, pure benzene followed the decline. Planned overhaul of Fujian United Petrochemical Unit within the week, and expected reduction of pure benzene supply; New production capacity is planned to be put into operation in the downstream, with good support from the supply and demand side and small decline in the week. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene remained stable at 8300-8400 yuan / ton.

In terms of external market, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market on Friday (November 12) was US $961 / T, down US $13 / T or 1.33% month on month (MOM) on November 5.

Crude oil fell sharply this week. U.S. crude oil inventories continued to increase, the U.S. dollar jumped, and OPEC + lowered its oil demand forecast for the fourth quarter, suppressing oil prices. However, the end of international travel restrictions in the United States and the adoption of the trillion dollar infrastructure bill gave a positive boost to the market. The demand for crude oil may grow, and the market is worried about supply or shortage. On November 5, Brent fell 0.57 USD / barrel, or 0.69%; WTI fell US $0.48/barrel, or 0.59%.

Downstream: styrene: the market price of styrene continued to decline slightly this week. The price of sample enterprises was 9420 yuan / ton on November 5 and 9025 yuan / ton on November 12, down 4.19% from last week and up 6.59% from the same period last year. The fundamentals of styrene are expected to weaken, new units are put into operation, supply increases, and downstream demand recovers slightly, but the overall capital is bearish on the market, and styrene is weak.

Aniline: both raw materials fell, and the cost support of aniline weakened; Downstream resistance to high priced aniline increased, follow-up weakened, and the high price of aniline corrected. During the week, the market cautiously watched the downstream pick-up sentiment and stabilized after falling. On November 12, the price in Shandong was 13500-13780 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 14000-14500 yuan / ton

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, tight crude oil supply still exists, short-term long short game, and the trend of crude oil fluctuates. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the global epidemic, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of crude oil and refined oil in the United States, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.

Downstream: the main downstream product styrene: at present, there is no significant change in the supply and demand of styrene, and the price trend is guided by crude oil. Pure benzene or finishing operation, ethylene is expected to be stable, and there is support at the cost end. The supply of styrene is tight recently, there is no obvious increase on the demand side, and the port inventory may be reduced slightly. It is expected that styrene will maintain shock operation next week.

Crude oil is expected to fluctuate on the cost side, and the guidance for pure benzene is weak; The trend of downstream styrene is weak, but there are plans to put new production capacity into operation, and the demand for pure benzene is expected to increase in the later stage. The supply and demand side pays attention to the dynamics of large units in East China and the dynamics of new units in the downstream. Overall, it is expected that pure benzene will continue to fluctuate weakly next week. Pay attention to the downstream market, the dynamics of domestic pure benzene units, and the impact of the trend of crude oil and external market on the price of pure benzene.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (average ex factory price of carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 9240 yuan / ton on November 11, up 30 yuan / ton compared with 9210 at the beginning of the week, up 0.33% during the week and 22.79% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the PVC market stopped falling and rebounded, and the market rose. This week, the disk was strong, the futures price fluctuated and rose, which boosted the rising atmosphere of the spot market. The enterprise quotation was tentatively raised, the market trading atmosphere gradually improved, the focus began to move up, and the offer was more than 9000 yuan. PVC futures rose 2.8% on Monday. The spot market was cautious, covering the decline slightly, the enthusiasm of downstream bargain hunting and replenishment was improved, and the trading was improved; The upward channel was opened on Tuesday, and the futures price continued to rise by 2.84%. In addition, the decline of raw calcium carbide stabilized and the enthusiasm of low price to promote trading, the enterprise offer continued to rise%. Near the weekend, the price of raw calcium carbide rose to 4600 yuan / ton, which further provided strong support for the cost side. Moreover, after the continuous price reduction operation in the early stage, the acceptance of downstream products industry has improved and the purchasing sentiment has improved, But the wait-and-see attitude remains cautious.

In terms of spot, at present, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone enterprises is mostly around 8800-9650 yuan / ton, and the range of pvc5 electric stone in Hangzhou is 9730-9800 yuan / ton; The mainstream of pvc5 electric stone in Shanghai is 9780-9800 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou is 9600-9750 yuan / ton, and the market price in various parts of China rebounded and rose.

region workmanship 11 / 11 (yuan / ton) 11 / 8 (yuan / ton) Rise and fall remarks

East China Calcium carbide method 9550-9800 9150-9400 + 400/+400 Ex warehouse

south China Calcium carbide method 9550-9750 9300-9550 + 250/+200 Ex warehouse

North China Calcium carbide method 9100-9400 8950-9000 + 150/+400 Delivered

southwest Calcium carbide method 9350-9600 8950-9400 + 400/+200 Delivered

On November 10, the international oil price fell sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $81.93/barrel, down US $2.81 or 3.3%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was US $83.43/barrel, up US $2.14 or 2.5%. At the macro level, the sharp rise of the US dollar has depressed the valuation of oil prices. In addition, under the background of inflation expectations, the Biden government is looking for ways to reduce energy prices, and oil prices are under pressure in the short term.

Ethylene, November 10, US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted us $806-824 / ton, November 10, European ethylene market, FD northwest Europe quoted us $1223-1233 / ton, down US $1 / ton, CIF northwest Europe quoted us $1190-1198 / ton, down US $6 / ton, November 10, Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quoted us $1156-1166 / ton, CFR Southeast Asia quotation: USD 1071-1081 / ton. Rising international oil prices and sustained global economic recovery support energy demand. Cost support is conducive to the rise of ethylene market, so the data analysts of business society expect the external price of ethylene to rise next.

On November 11, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest rose, the price of blue carbon in the upstream fell sharply, the cost support weakened, the PVC market in the downstream stopped falling and rose, and the demand for calcium carbide strengthened.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that at present, the disk is strong and volatile, the rise of PVC futures prices and the recovery of raw materials drive the rising atmosphere of the spot market, the enterprise offer is steadily increased, the market trading atmosphere is improved, and the PVC market is warmer. It is expected that PVC may maintain a volatile upward trend in the short term.

Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, the average early trading price of silver market on November 10 was 4902 yuan / kg, an increase of 8.16% compared with the average early trading price of 4585 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of October (October 1); Compared with the beginning of the year (01.01), the spot price of silver was 5550 yuan / kg, a decrease of 10.65%.

On November 10, the spot market price of gold was 376.46 yuan / g, an increase of 1.22% over the spot market price of 370.51 yuan / G on Monday, and an increase of 3.58% over the early average price of 380.20 yuan / g in the spot market price in early October (10.1); Compared with the beginning of the year (01.01), the spot price of gold was 392.70 yuan / g, down 4.14%.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent 3 months

The convergence of precious metal gold and silver is good. At the end of September, the price of silver decreased rapidly. After the return of the national day, the price of silver hit the bottom and rebounded. The fluctuation amplitude of silver price is large, the price trend of gold and silver tends to be narrow, and the recent price fluctuation of silver is relatively stable.

Future expectations

From the perspective of the external futures market, there is a relative resistance level near us $25.00/oz for Bank of America and US gold at US $1840 / oz. Recent disk prices are close to the region, or there may be potential expectations of falling shocks.

In terms of news, according to the recently released domestic data, China’s M2 money supply increased by 8.7% year-on-year in October, 0.4 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month, which is expected to be 8.30%, compared with the previous value of 8.30%. The money supply data in the domestic market was good, but the increase of PPI expanded in October due to the combination of international input factors and tight supply of domestic main energy and raw materials. On a month on month basis, PPI rose by 2.5%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points over the previous month. From a year-on-year perspective, PPI rose by 13.5%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points over the previous month. The domestic data in October basically supported and confirmed the market trend of precious metals in the same period in October.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1906 yuan / ton on November 1 and 1656 yuan / ton on November 7. The price of ammonium sulfate fell 13.11% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of ammonium sulfate fell this week, and the market decline in various regions in China varied. The domestic market of ammonium sulfate was dominated by weak operation. Although the demand side is still, downstream enterprises are resistant to high prices and have an obvious wait-and-see attitude. This week, the mainstream factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Shandong is 1500-1800 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 1500-1650 yuan / ton, and that in Shanxi is 1400-1600 yuan / ton.

The downstream compound fertilizer fluctuated slightly this week, with ups and downs. Due to the decline in the price of compound fertilizer raw materials and insufficient cost support, there is no clear guidance in the market. The terminal takes a small amount of goods, and the attitude on the site is cautious. It is suggested to pay attention to the changes of raw materials and the introduction of relevant policies.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium sulfate analyst of business society believes that due to the impact of environmental protection, production restriction and dual control, it is difficult to increase the supply during the maintenance and shutdown of some caprolactam units. At present, the demand at home and abroad is OK, and the market is not good. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will operate stably and fluctuate slightly in the short term.

DOP prices fell on November 8

According to the data monitoring of business agency, DOP price fell and DOP market fell on November 8. On November 8, the DOP price was 12175.00 yuan / ton, down 0.41% from 12225.00 yuan / ton on November 5 of the previous trading day; DOP trend fell.

Overview of industrial chain Market

The price of raw material isooctanol fell, the price of phthalic anhydride fell slightly, and the cost of DOP fell; Downstream plastic PVC prices fell sharply and demand fell; The start-up of DOP manufacturers rose at a low level, the supply of DOP increased, and the shortage of DOP was alleviated.

Future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, a DOP data analyst at business agency, believes that on November 8, DOP supply increased, demand was low, costs fell, and DOP prices fell in the future.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, today (November 4), the quotation of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was reduced by 300-500 yuan / ton, the quotation of polyester POY (150D / 48F) was 7850-8200 yuan / ton, the quotation of polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) was 9900-10310 yuan / ton, and the quotation of polyester FDY (150D / 96F) was 8300-8400 yuan / ton. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of polyester market is concentrated in 16-26 days, including POY inventory to 12-19 days, FDY inventory to about 15-17 days, and DTY inventory to about 17-25 days.

product 2021-11-3 2021-11-4 Rise and fall Year on year rise and fall

Polyester POY (150D / 48F) eight thousand five hundred and twenty-seven eight thousand and eighty-three – 5.21% 50.36%

Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) eight thousand seven hundred and ninety-eight eight thousand three hundred and ninety-eight – 4.55% 51.83%

Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) ten thousand five hundred and sixty ten thousand one hundred and sixty – 3.79% 43.34%

On November 3, the international oil price fell sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $80.86/barrel, down US $3.05 or 3.6%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was US $81.99/barrel, down US $2.73 or 3.2%. The Fed tightened monetary policy and reduced the scale of bond purchase. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently reported that the US crude oil inventory increased more than expected last week.

The domestic PTA market continued to decline. The average price in the spot market was 4961 yuan / ton, down 1.90% from the previous day. The main PTA futures 2201 closed 5002 and settled 5020, down 150, down 2.91%. In terms of supply and demand, Sichuan energy investment 1 million tons and Hengli Petrochemical 2.2 million tons of units have been overhauled successively, and the industrial start-up load is around 82. At present, PTA stock is sufficient, and there is not much device maintenance before the end of the year.

In the downstream market, the dual control policy of energy consumption in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has been relaxed. Since the end of October, the comprehensive start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has significantly increased to more than 65%. Most people in the market believe that with the easing of the power restriction policy, the start-up of texturing, weaving and printing and dyeing has gradually recovered, and the enthusiasm of the factory to undertake orders after December has rebounded. However, due to the impact of terminal demand, it is still difficult for the operating rate to return to the previous high. At the same time, due to the downward trend of the current raw material market, the wait-and-see atmosphere of downstream factories has increased, and the procurement enthusiasm is not high.

Business analysts believe that the decline in temperature drives the rigid demand for home textiles and clothing fabrics in winter, but with the gradual closure of orders in autumn and winter. Superimposed on the sharp decline of crude oil, PTA accumulated, and the cost side support began to weaken. The demand side terminal enterprises have a wait-and-see atmosphere, a cautious purchasing mentality and purchase on demand. In the short term, the price of polyester filament will remain mainly down under the downward cost and weak demand.

Trade name: titanium dioxide

Latest price November 3: 20950 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on November 3, the domestic titanium dioxide market price was basically stable. Enterprises are limited, and the market starts at a low level. Downstream enterprises also have poor operation and light demand. At present, the overall market is weak in both supply and demand, and the titanium dioxide market is dominated by stable operation.

It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will remain deadlocked in the short term.

In October, the epoxy resin market fell broadly. According to the monitoring data of business society, the offer of East China liquid resin market was 37700 yuan / ton on October 1, and fell to 32750 yuan / ton on November 1, with a decrease of 13.13%. The sharp decline of epoxy resin market is mainly affected by the decline of raw material end and the decline of cost support.

Bisphenol a continued to decline, and the decline in cost support was the main factor for the continuous decline in the epoxy resin market. In the declining market, the downstream is more cautious about the purchase of raw materials. Under the weak demand, the market source consumption is slow, mainly small single purchase, which further depresses the market negotiation atmosphere.

The price of epichlorohydrin declined slowly, and the decline was slightly inferior to that of epoxy resin, which was mainly reflected in solid resin. The epoxy resin market is temporarily lack of good news support, and the short-term epichlorohydrin price also fell at a high level. The decline of epoxy resin will further increase.

Device: the overall operating rate of liquid resin is about 60%; The operating rate of solid resin is 4-5%.

At the end of October, the overhaul of Nantong Xingchen and Changchun chemical plants, a large domestic factory, was completed successively. A 120000 T / a bisphenol a plant in Tianjin Zhongsha was put into operation, and a 130000 T / a plant of Pingmei Shenma, a new plant, was planned to be put into trial operation in the near future. The domestic supply is expected to increase in the future, and the bisphenol a market at the raw material end is expected to decline. From the perspective of the industry, after a round of high exploration, the index of the chemical industry turned downward, and the cautious wait-and-see mood of buyers and sellers in the industry increased. Analysts of the business society believe that in the later stage, they pay more attention to the impact of industrial policies. According to the current situation, the epoxy resin market may continue to bottom in November.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market rebounded slightly today (November 1). The average market price was 5124 yuan / ton, up 0.47% from the previous day and 55.96% year-on-year.

Sichuan Energy Investment Co., Ltd. shut down 1 million tons of PTA plant, Hengli petrochemical 3#2.2 million tons of PTA plant planned maintenance, partial PTA plant maintenance or planned maintenance, and suspended the speed of PTA inventory accumulation.

The high volatility of crude oil still supports PTA prices. In view of the tight supply of overseas natural gas and the expected increase in the demand for heating oil in winter, the US WTI crude oil futures closed higher on October 29, with the settlement price of the main contract reported at US $83.57/barrel and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures reported at us $84.38/barrel.

The downstream polyester plant has insufficient support for PTA raw materials, the operating load is not high, maintained near 80%, and the production and sales are flat. In view of the low inventory of finished products and acceptable profits, there is still some room for replenishment in the market, but it is still difficult for the operating rate to return to the previous high due to the impact of terminal demand. In terms of price, the quotation of mainstream polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased steadily.

Business analysts believe that their own device maintenance boost and cost support still exist, and the adjustment space below PTA price is limited. In the future, we still need to pay attention to the changes on the demand side.