Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, the average price of silver market in early trading on October 28 was 4905.33 yuan / kg, up 0.50% from yesterday’s average price of 4881.00; Compared with the early average price of 4585 yuan / kg in the spot market in early October (October 1), an increase of 6.99%; Compared with the beginning of the year (01.01), the spot price of silver was 5550 yuan / kg, a decrease of 11.62%.

On October 28, the spot market price of gold was 371.03 yuan / g, up 0.92% from yesterday’s spot market price of 367.64 yuan / g, down 2.41% from the early average price of 380.20 yuan / g in the spot market in early October (10.1); Compared with the spot price of gold at the beginning of the year (01.01), 392.70 yuan / g, down 5.52%.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in October

Recently, the fluctuation amplitude of silver price is large. On the whole, silver is at a low level in the early stage, and the rebound is stronger.

At present, the price of precious metals is affected by the Asian trading period, the decline of Asian stocks, the sharp green of domestic bulk commodities and the rising market risk aversion, which is beneficial to the precious metal market to a certain extent.

Superimposed on the geopolitical aspect, the FCC voted to revoke the business operation license of China Telecom Americas in the United States, and there are many bad factors on the road of China US relations. Risk aversion has accumulated.

On the demand side of fundamentals, the total demand for gold decreased in the third quarter, but the global central bank net bought 69 tons, the global gold ETF position decreased by 27 tons, and its total position remained at a high level of 3592 tons; The global demand for gold bars and gold coins was 262 tons, a year-on-year increase of 18% and a month on month increase of 8%. Recently, the demand for gold investment has weakened, but the physical demand has improved.

If there is no emergency, the recent stable and volatile operation of precious metal prices is mainly. Focus on the following news in the future:

Recent policy focus

19:45 Hong Kong time on Thursday; The European Central Bank will announce the interest rate resolution; European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference at 20:30 Hong Kong time on Thursday.;

On Friday, the United States will release the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, which is the Fed’s favorite inflation index;

In the longer term, we can focus on the Fed’s monetary policy meeting from November 2 to 3.

Spot aluminum prices continued to fall on the 27th

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on October 27 was 20610 yuan / ton, down 14.98% from the average market price of 24240 yuan / ton on October 19.

At present, the aluminum price has fallen below the high and volatile operation range in the early stage. Taking the average market price of aluminum ingots at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021) of 15726.67 yuan / ton as the benchmark price, the cumulative increase is 31.05%.

The turning point of aluminum price on the 19th and the coal factor should not be underestimated

The recent sharp decline in coal prices has strongly impacted the market sentiment of nonferrous metals, especially the market situation of large power users and aluminum ingots. The settlement of speculative positions in the futures market has driven the linkage of spot prices, and aluminum prices have been falling continuously recently.

Recently, the social inventory of aluminum ingots rose against the cycle, and the price of aluminum ingots fell continuously. In the early stage, the aluminum price was indeed high, the downstream undertaking was weak, and the fear of high was strong, so the aluminum price had a certain driving force and space for decline.

Aluminum prices fell by 14.98% continuously, floating profit decreased sharply, and cost factors began to highlight.

The price of raw alumina soared, and the cost per ton of aluminum rose

According to the data of business agency, the regional prices of alumina spot contract of Chinalco on October 27, 2021 are as follows:

The external quotation of Shandong is 4150 yuan / ton, that of Henan is 4150 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi is 4150 yuan / ton, that of Guizhou is 3950 yuan / ton, and that of Guangxi is 3900 yuan / ton.

Compared with the alumina price three months ago, the regional prices of alumina spot contract on July 13, 2021 are as follows:

Shandong offers 2450 yuan / ton, Henan 2450 yuan / ton, Shanxi 2450 yuan / ton, Guizhou 2400 yuan / ton and Guangxi 2400 yuan / ton.

In the past three months, alumina prices in various regions increased by 69.4%, 69.4%, 69.4%, 64.58% and 62.5% respectively. Although the downstream aluminum price has plunged sharply, the alumina price is still high for the following reasons:

On October 15, Zhengzhou City issued the notice on starting the class III rotation and rest plan of Zhengzhou City for peak winter in 2021. Some enterprises require to take “three starts and four stops” for rotation and rest, and Chinalco mining (a subsidiary of Chinalco Henan) as one of the 64 “double high” enterprise users issued by the provincial development and Reform Commission will stop all production. It is reported that the annual alumina production capacity of Henan Province is 12.85 million tons, and the alumina production will be 8.67 million tons in 2020, accounting for 13% of the national alumina production. Superimposed overseas alumina is also expected to reduce production, and the price is high. According to the customs import data, China imported 394100 tons of alumina in August, a month on month decrease of 25.19% and a year-on-year increase of 49.85%. From January to August, China imported 2332300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.95%.

In the early stage, the prices of alumina and prebaked anode rose synchronously. The cost per ton of aluminum in some electrolytic aluminum plants using thermal power is close to 19500 yuan / ton, while the cost of aluminum in southwest hydropower is slightly lower, roughly estimated at 17500-19000 yuan / ton.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the external price of ethylene fluctuated and rose in October. The average price of ethylene at the beginning of the month was US $1125.25/t, and the average price of ethylene at the end of the month was US $1186.75/t, an increase of 5.47%. The current price increased by 6.10% month on month, and the current price increased by 58.13% year-on-year.

ethylene

In October, the external ethylene market showed an overall upward trend. As can be seen from the above figure, ethylene has been rising for four weeks, and the ethylene market price in Asia has continued to rise. As of the 26th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1196-1206 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1111-1121 / T. European ethylene market prices rose slightly. As of the 26th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1252-1264 / T and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1170-1178 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States rose. As of the 26th, the price was 790-807 yuan / ton. Throughout October, the overall demand of the external ethylene market was good, the market trading atmosphere was active, and the market continued to rise.

International aspect: the international crude oil price continues to rise, the recent recovery of international energy demand is much higher than expected, and the improvement of energy supply is limited, resulting in a shortage of energy supply. The positive fundamentals support the strong rise of crude oil. In addition, market participants said that with the coming winter in the northern hemisphere, the demand for heating will increase, and the global energy crisis may become more severe. Oil prices continued to rise, giving ethylene cost support.

In October, the styrene market rose first and then fell. After the national day, crude oil continued to rise, bulk commodities generally rose, and driven by the rise of pure benzene, the styrene price continued to rise, which slightly repaired the styrene production profit. During the festival, new downstream enterprises in Shandong were put into operation, the inventory of local enterprises was low, and the supply was tight, leading to a continuous rise in prices. After the festival, inventory in East China was low, spot supply was tight, and prices rose sharply. After the middle and late ten days, crude oil fell, bulk commodities generally fell, pure benzene profit fled, on-site selling increased, and styrene prices fell broadly. Overall, the styrene market is still high, which can give ethylene some support.

Ethylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business agency believe that: at present, in terms of crude oil, the economy is gradually recovering, the demand continues to improve, and the high raw material price gives ethylene cost support. Therefore, the data analysts of the business agency expect the external price of ethylene to rise next.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, the average price of acetic acid was 7260 yuan / ton on October 22. Compared with 8410 yuan / ton on October 16, it was reduced by 1150 yuan / ton during the week, a decrease of 13.67% and 13.05% month on month. As of October 22, the market price of acetic acid in various regions in China rose and fell as follows:

region October 16th October 22nd Price rise and fall

South China 8500-8700 yuan / ton 7300-7400 yuan / ton – 1200/-1300

North China 8300-8550 yuan / ton 7100-7350 yuan / ton – 1200/-1200

Shandong region 8400-8600 yuan / ton 7100-7300 yuan / ton – 1300/-1300

Jiangsu region 8500-8600 yuan / ton 7000-7100 yuan / ton – 1500/-1500

Zhejiang region 8600-8700 yuan / ton 7100-7200 yuan / ton – 1500/-1500

The domestic acetic acid market fell broadly. After the acetic acid plants of enterprises successively returned to normal operation, the market supply continued to accumulate, while the limited power production had an impact, the downstream operation was low, the market demand was weak, the market purchase was just needed, and the on-site trading was light, resulting in the accumulation of enterprise inventory and slow consumption of market supply. In order to maintain the shipment, the quotation of domestic acetic acid enterprises continued to decline.

In the downstream, the market of ethyl acetate was weak and downward during the week. As of October 22, the price of ethyl acetate in East China was 10062.5 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1.23% during the week. Most manufacturers’ devices operated normally, with increased supply and higher inventory. However, the downstream industry was affected by power restriction and weak demand, resulting in a decline in the delivery speed of ethyl acetate manufacturers and a weak and downward market.

According to the acetic acid analysts of business society, in terms of supply in the domestic market, the manufacturer’s inventory is accumulated, and the supply of acetic acid market is sufficient. In order to maintain shipment, the price of enterprises continues to decline, the downstream purchase is still rational, and the contradiction between supply and demand will not be significantly improved in a short time. It is expected that the future market will be weak, and the specific attention will be paid to the market transaction.

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1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of pure benzene fell after rising this week. On October 17, the price of pure benzene was 8350-8550 yuan / ton (average price 8440 yuan / ton). On Sunday (October 24), the price of pure benzene was 8340 yuan / ton (average price 8150-8550 yuan / ton). The average price decreased by 100 yuan / ton, or 1.18%, compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 134.27%.

2、 Analysis and review

The rise of crude oil slowed down, the atmosphere of bulk commodity market weakened during the week, and the price of styrene fell, so the negotiation of pure benzene market became lighter. Demand in Shandong weakened and prices fluctuated narrowly after falling during the week. The impact of low price of hydrogenated benzene in the north, and the mentality of pure benzene market is empty. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene remained stable at 8300-8400 yuan / ton.

In terms of external market, the high price of external market fell this week. On Friday (October 22), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was US $992 / ton. Compared with October 15, the price fell by US $20 / ton, or 1.98%.

In terms of crude oil, the number of active oil rigs in the United States this week decreased by 2 month on month and increased by 232 year-on-year. Global coal and natural gas prices continue to rise, and the tight supply of crude oil is expected to be difficult to change in the short term. However, some market participants worry that if the prices of coal and natural gas fall, it will drag down the oil price and slow down the rise of oil price. On October 15, Brent rose 0.67 USD / barrel, or 0.79%; WTI rose $1.48/barrel, or 1.8%.

Downstream: styrene: the price of styrene weakened this week. On October 22, the price of sample enterprises was 9750 yuan / ton, down 1.71% from last week and up 44.8% from the same period last year. Crude oil rose strongly, ethylene was stronger, but the price of raw material pure benzene fell, and the cost expenditure temporarily weakened. The downstream maintains rigid demand, but with the increase of restrictions, spot demand weakens.

Aniline: the restart of Jiangsu Fuqiang aniline plant was delayed, the overall on-site operating rate was low, and the spot supply was tight; Downstream demand was good, and aniline prices continued to rise during the week. On October 22, the price in Shandong was 14000-14260 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 14000-14500 yuan / ton

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, with the advent of winter in the northern hemisphere, the demand for fuel oil is improving, the global energy supply is tight, the pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and the oil price is expected to remain high. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and so on on on crude oil prices.

Downstream: styrene, the main downstream product, decreases in spot demand as restrictions increase. It is expected that there is still room for decline in the short-term styrene market.

Positive: crude oil will remain strong in the short term, with good cost support. Bad: the downstream operating rate decreased and the demand for pure benzene was limited; Coupled with the impact of low price of hydrogenated benzene in the north, it is expected that pure benzene will hardly recover in the short term. Overall, it is expected that pure benzene will fluctuate weakly next week. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, the dynamics of domestic pure benzene units, and the impact of crude oil, external market and other trends on the price of pure benzene.

According to the price monitoring of business society, the trend of domestic spandex market continues to maintain stability. Today (October 21), the average market price is 80600 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 128.98%. The operating rate of spandex factory is 75%, the spot supply is OK, and the cost support remains, but the continuation of the terminal market just needs to be followed up, and the wait-and-see mood is heavy.

The upstream raw material market fluctuates upward, and the PTMEG market mainly supports the price. The mainstream factories with 1800 molecular weight supply offer around 46000-49000 yuan / ton, and the actual single negotiation refers to 45000-48000 yuan / ton. However, the negotiation atmosphere in the pure MDI market has weakened, the quotation of traders has been reduced, and the negotiation price is 23000-23500 yuan / ton. The telegraphic transfer can be picked up in barrels.

Downstream customers’ intention to take goods is limited. I heard that the demand has slightly recovered and there is a slight replenishment. The factory is cautious in accepting new orders and mainly produces early-stage orders. The “double 11″ e-commerce clothing orders and winter home textile orders pick up month on month, but they are still poor year-on-year. At present, the comprehensive startup rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 55%.

Business analysts believe that there has been little change in the domestic spandex market price recently, manufacturers have started to recover one after another, the supply of goods is sufficient, and individual spandex manufacturers ship flexibly. Overall, the cost side still has good support, but due to the lack of downstream demand, the price of spandex is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term.

On the night of October 19, the futures of coal chemical related sectors generally fell, followed by PTA. Today (October 20), the current price of PTA fell slightly. The average price in the domestic spot market was 5390 yuan / ton, down 2.45% yuan / ton from the previous day, up 56.58% year-on-year. The main futures 2201 closed 5440 and settled 5410, down 90, down 1.63%.

PTA plant was gradually restarted with sufficient spot supply, and the overall operating load of domestic PTA plant increased to more than 77%. The 1.5 million ton unit of Jiaxing Petrochemical stopped on October 9 and restarted on October 20. The 2.5 million ton unit of Yisheng Dalian was overhauled on October 8, and it is planned to restart around October 22, which remains to be paid attention to.

Crude oil fluctuated at a high level, and the cost supported PTA. On October 19, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $82.44/barrel, an increase of US $0.75 or 0.92%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was US $85.08/barrel, an increase of US $0.75 or 0.89%. Global supply is tight, and the growth of fuel demand in winter is expected to rise, which continues to be good for oil prices.

The PTA Market of raw materials is weak, the wait-and-see mood in the downstream polyester market is strong, and the quotation of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is temporarily stable, including polyester POY yuan / ton of 8850-9100 yuan / ton. The “double 11″ e-commerce clothing orders and winter home textile orders recovered month on month, but they were still poor year-on-year, the terminal demand was weak, and the polyester operating load was stable around 79%.

Business analysts believe that although the cost side support remains, some large PTA devices are being restarted or planned to be restarted, the PTA supply pressure increases, the overall chemical futures presents a weak atmosphere, and the short-term PTA market will decline in a narrow range.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the TDI market price was strong this week. On October 15, the average market price in East China was 14525.00 yuan / ton, and the price continued to rise during the week, up 2.65% compared with 14150.00 yuan / ton on October 9.

The TDI price trend is upward this week, and the market continues to be strong. The supply of Wanhua chemical plant is relatively small. Although the TDI plant of a factory in the north is restarted, the overall supply of goods in the site is tight, the export orders of downstream terminals are increased, the quotations of sponge and polyether are increased, the downstream inquiries are increased, and the quotations of traders are increased. As of the 15th, the reference for domestic goods with tickets in the mainstream market in East China is about 14300-14500 yuan / ton, and the reference for Shanghai goods with tickets is 14500-14800 yuan / ton, mainly through real order negotiation. The dealer’s quotation is adjusted with the market news, and the market is sorted upward within the week.

The upstream toluene market rose broadly. On October 15, the domestic average price of toluene was 6560.20 yuan / ton, an increase of 11.19% in the week. The strong trend of crude oil led to the continuous rise of related aromatic products and gasoline. With the support of raw materials and downstream high level, the toluene market actively pushed up. In addition, Sinopec continuously raised prices and active market negotiations, toluene rose to a high level during the week.

According to the analysis of TDI data division of business society, the domestic TDI market is running upward. Although the supplier’s plant is restarted, the overall supply of goods is tight, coupled with the increase of export orders at the downstream of the terminal, the mood in the field is bullish. It is expected that the TDI market will be sorted upward in the later stage, and the future trend will pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

1、 Price data

As of October 17, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7714.00 yuan / ton, up 3.59% from 7446.60 yuan / ton on October 11. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 7700-8000 yuan / ton.

As of October 17, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic local refining straight run naphtha was 7555.00 yuan / ton, up 4.68% from 7217.50 yuan / ton on October 11. The actual transaction price of local refining straight run naphtha was about 7400-7700 yuan / ton.

On October 17, the naphtha commodity index was 95.21, unchanged from yesterday, down 7.22% from the highest point of 102.62 in the cycle (September 24, 2012), and up 125.40% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha continued to rise this week. There was no inventory pressure in refineries, the terminal just needed to be the main, the market operation was cautious, and most of them were on the sidelines.

Upstream: the international crude oil price has risen since October. Affected by the rise of European natural gas and the production restriction of oil producing countries, crude oil also shows a shortage of supply. The international oil price has exceeded the $80 mark during the “National Day” and continued to rise after the festival. On October 4, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies reached an agreement at the ministerial video conference to maintain the original production policy. The expectation of supply tightening heated up the market panic and the high oil price. What is more noteworthy is that there is an extreme shortage of natural gas in Europe and the United States, and power plants may gradually turn to oil power generation, which will further lead to the shortage of crude oil. Oil prices have been strongly supported in the short term.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business society, toluene rose continuously this week, and the price rose broadly. The price of toluene was 6020.2 yuan / ton on October 8 and 6620.2 yuan / ton on October 15, up 9.97%. The price of mixed xylene increased continuously this week, with a wide range. The price of mixed xylene was 6170 yuan / ton on October 8 and 6830 yuan / ton on October 15, an increase of 10.7% over last week. In the PX market, the market price of p-xylene rose this week. As of the 14th, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, up 2.82% from 7100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 41st week of 2021 (10.11-10.15), there are 13 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 5 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 31.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were liquefied natural gas (17.75%), power coal (13.81%) and fuel oil (7.09%). There are two commodities with month on month decline, and the products with the first two declines are petroleum coke (- 1.36%) and coking coal (- 0.44%). The average rise and fall this week was 4.24%.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the international crude oil continues to rise, supported by the cost of naphtha market; The refinery has no inventory pressure, the terminal just needs to be the main, the market operation is cautious, and most of them wait-and-see. It is expected that the naphtha refining in the near future may be stable and upward.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price trend of cryolite in Henan this week was temporarily stable. On October 16, the average market price in Henan was 6725.00 yuan / ton. The price was flat during the week, up 2.28% from the beginning of the month and 3.66% from the previous month.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic cryolite market is high and strong, the upstream raw materials are tight, and the quotation is high, which drives the cryolite industry to operate firmly. The production capacity of individual cryolite enterprises is low, and the quotation is high within the week. As of the 15th, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong is 6500-6700 yuan / ton, that in Henan is increased by 400 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation is 6500-7200 yuan / ton. Domestic cryolite enterprises operate normally, the enterprise inventory is OK, the downstream demand is stable, the shipment is stable, the market supply is tight, the enterprise cryolite price is mainly high, and the actual transaction price is low.

In the downstream aluminum industry, the market fluctuated and rose this week. On October 15, the aluminum price was 23646.67 yuan / ton, an overall increase of 4.43% compared with the price of 22643.33 yuan / ton at the end of last week. The supply side was affected by the policies of “carbon neutralization”, “carbon peak” and dual control of energy consumption. The supply was limited, the inventory was low, the market circulation source was tight, and the downstream operating rate was also affected to a certain extent in terms of demand, Superimposed on the current high aluminum price, the downstream mainly purchases on demand, and the upstream and downstream game intensifies. It is expected that the aluminum market trend will continue to operate at a high level in the later stage.

3、 Future forecast

The domestic cryolite market continues to be at a high level, the upstream raw materials are tight, the enterprise quotation is strong, the downstream demand is stable, and the enterprise shipment is stable. It is expected that the cryolite market will operate at a high level in the later stage, and pay attention to the downstream demand.