Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic PA66 market was volatile in early July, and the spot prices of various brands rose and fell differently. As of July 12, the average offer price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding sample enterprises was about 38550 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year increase of 105.05%.

Cause analysis

In terms of upstream adipic acid, the domestic adipic acid price rose sharply last week (7.5-7.9), with an increase of 11%. At present, the price is stable at 11000 yuan. The market rise was mainly due to the sharp rise in the price of pure benzene in the upstream of adipic acid, which led to the passive follow-up in the downstream, and the impact of the concentration of manufacturers to increase the listing price at the beginning of the month, resulting in the sharp rise of adipic acid. On the supply side, the current starting level of adipic acid is normal and low, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is general, the supply pressure is relieved due to the maintenance of some enterprises, and the manufacturers raise the listing price at the beginning of this month, which leads to the passive follow-up of the market. Some dealers have no goods in hand, and there are signs of empty price rising and false high. However, as the market enters the off-season, the speed of delivery has decreased significantly. After the sharp rise in prices, the market reaction is more light. Later continued upward resistance, is expected to be stable in the near future market high.

Raw material adipic acid rose sharply, PA66 cost side support significantly stronger, but the current PA66 market has no feedback on upstream support, the overall weak supply and demand pattern remains unchanged, and the off-season market continues. In terms of operating rate, the overall load level of domestic PA66 enterprises is not high, and the change is limited since July. On the demand side, the terminal enterprises are slow to follow up, the on-site delivery orders are small, the market momentum is insufficient, and the buyers have a heavy wait-and-see mentality. Business offer firm, real single flexible shipping, price focus has been down. Recently, the market atmosphere has not been out of the light state. According to the news, we heard that there are some low price orders.

Future forecast

Analysts of business news agency think: in early July, the domestic PA66 market fluctuated. At present, PA66 has cost side support, but the profit situation of end users is not good, and the follow-up is insufficient. The upstream advantage is not reflected in the spot price of PA66, which may cause cost pressure in the later stage. The current off-season market is still more prominent, weak supply and demand. At present, there are some low price orders in the spot price, and it is expected that PA66 market will be weak in the short term.

1、 Nitric acid market price trend chart

Nitric acid price curve

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the average price of concentrated nitric acid in domestic areas at the beginning of the week was 2350 yuan / ton, while that at the end of the week was 2400 yuan / ton, up 1.13%.

2、 Market analysis

On July 6, Anhui Jinhe quoted about 2500 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan / ton from last time; Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 2200 yuan / ton for concentrated nitric acid and 1150 yuan / ton for dilute nitric acid, which was the same as last time; Shandong helitainong nitric acid quoted 2500 yuan / ton, which was the same as last time; Anhui Aodeli concentrated nitric acid quoted 2500 yuan / ton, 150 yuan / ton higher than last time. The supply of nitric acid was tight, the downstream demand was acceptable, and the quotation was raised.

Upstream liquid ammonia, domestic liquid ammonia Shandong production price rose 0.38% this week. Downstream aniline, domestic aniline market price fell 2.58% this week. Downstream TDI market price in East China rose 3.37% this week.

3、 Future forecast

Nitric acid supply is tight, and the market is fair. Analysts of nitric acid business community expect that nitric acid will continue to be strong.

According to the price monitoring data of the business club, as of July 7, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 7700 yuan / ton, which was 200 yuan / ton lower than that on July 1, a decrease of 2.53%; Compared with the price on June 7, the average price decreased by 833 yuan / ton, or 9.77%.

In June, after the domestic n-propanol market continued to decline, it entered July. A few days before the beginning of the month, the domestic n-propanol market remained weak. On the 7th, the n-propanol market price in Shandong Province fluctuated downward, and the n-propanol plant in Shandong Province increased. The secondary market price of some n-propanol and the ex factory price of n-propanol decreased, ranging from 500 to 900 yuan / ton, The price of n-propanol is 7000-7600 yuan / ton. In Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, the market of n-propanol is stable. In Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd., the production unit of n-propanol is running normally. The ex factory quotation of n-propanol is 8500 yuan / ton. At present, the factory’s shipment is normal, and the contract order has been given priority to. In the secondary market, the low-end quotation of some n-propanol fell below 7000 yuan / ton, and the price difference between the high and low market was large. Because dealers and traders had reservations about the price, it was difficult to monitor the commodity price. The specific price was actually negotiated, and the quotation of each region was also different, so the price was only for reference.

In terms of upstream ethylene, on July 6, the European ethylene market quoted 1153-1164 US dollars / ton for FD northwest Europe and 1061-1070 US dollars / ton for CIF northwest Europe. The international oil price fell sharply. The meeting was suspended by the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) because they were unable to reach an agreement on increasing supply, and the oil price rose sharply. However, the decline on Tuesday was mainly due to market concerns about the increase in production in some OPEC member countries and the expected warming of shale oil supply in the United States driven by high oil prices. On July 6, the settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was 73.37 US dollars / barrel, down 1.79 US dollars or 2.4%, while the settlement price of the main contract in the Brent crude oil futures market was 74.53 US dollars / barrel, down 1.64 US dollars or 2.2%. Affected by the drop in upstream crude oil prices, the ethylene market may fall mainly later.

Forecast of the future trend of propanol

At present, the new production plant of n-propanol in Shandong will continue to increase the supply of n-propanol in the short term. Therefore, the analysts of n-propanol in business cooperatives believe that the market of n-propanol may continue to decline after the increase of supply without a large-scale increase in demand.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of June 30, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 14633 yuan / ton, up 833 yuan / ton or 6.04% compared with the price on June 1 (13800 yuan / ton).

In June and the first ten days of the year, the market of n-butanol in Shandong rose sharply. Supported by the delayed start-up of some plants, the spot supply of n-butanol plants continued to be tight, the downstream demand showed good performance, and the atmosphere of on-site trading increased rapidly. In just three days at the beginning of the month, the factories increased the ex factory price of n-butanol by 1000 yuan / ton. On June 4, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong rose to 14500 yuan / ton, up 5.07% compared with the beginning of the month. Subsequently, the n-butanol market continued to rise steadily. As of June 15, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province had risen to 15300 yuan / ton. Compared with the beginning of this month, the average price of n-butanol increased by 1500 yuan / ton, or 10.87% in half a month.

In late June, below the high level, the downstream demand of n-butanol was reduced, and the market price of n-butanol began to fall, but the overall level remained high. At the end of the month, the inventory of n-butanol plant was normal, the downstream demand was stable, and the n-butanol market was mainly in consolidation operation. As of June 30, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 14633 yuan / T, which was 667 yuan / t lower than the high market price of that month (15300 yuan / T), with a decrease of 4.36%. Compared with June, the average price was 844 yuan / T higher, with a monthly increase of 6.04%.

On the upstream side, in early June, the market price of propylene oxide dropped sharply to a low point in late June. In late June, the market price of propylene oxide began to rise steadily, and the price was temporarily stable on the 30th. At the end of the month, due to the influence of logistics and start-up policy, the supply of propylene oxide decreased and the market was mainly wait-and-see. On June 30, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 14000-14100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in East China was around 14200-14400 yuan / ton.

Future market analysis of n-butanol

I heard that in July, the n-butanol plant in Northwest China is approaching maintenance, the supply of n-butanol will be reduced, and the downstream will be replenished one after another. The demand is stable and normal. Therefore, n-butanol analysts from business news agency believe that in July, the domestic n-butanol market is expected to move closer to a high level under the support of tight supply.

From June 28 to July 2, 2021, the market price of antimony ingot in East China was temporarily stable, at 55000 yuan / ton.

On July 2, the antimony commodity index was 76.57, flat with yesterday, down 25.17% from 102.32 (2012-10-16), the highest point in the cycle, and up 62.98% from 46.98, the lowest point on December 24, 2015（ Note: period refers to the period from September 8, 2012 to now).

This week, antimony ingot market price is stable and upward, manufacturers have price expectations, this week’s market inquiry atmosphere is slightly active compared with the previous period, the shipment volume has improved, but the overall is still low. The manufacturers have strong willingness to support the price, and there is a certain reserve demand in the downstream, which supports the price trend of antimony ingot.

As of July 2, the domestic market of antimony ingot is 54500 yuan / ton for 2, 59000 yuan / ton for 1 and 60000 yuan / ton for 0.

Antimony ingot manufacturers have strong intention to raise prices, and it is expected that antimony ingot prices will fluctuate and strengthen in the future.

In June, the price of corn ethanol in China was adjusted. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the domestic ethanol market price was 6800 yuan / ton on June 1, and the domestic butadiene market price was 6962 yuan / ton on June 30, with an increase of 2.39% within the month and a year-on-year increase of 16.53%.

The market prices of different regions are different. The Northeast ethanol market has been reorganized, the East China ethanol market is weak, the Henan ethanol market is up and down, the South China Guangxi molasses ethanol market is strong, the Dongguan ethanol market is high, the Anhui ethanol market is on the lookout, the Sichuan ethanol market is volatile, and the Yunnan ethanol market is up.

From the perspective of raw material corn, this month’s corn market is mainly weak. Because the harvest time of summer grain is coming, China National Grain Reserve also has auctioned grain and imported grain to Hong Kong, so the grain has a small downward trend, but overall, the price of corn raw materials is still at a high level. From the perspective of demand, the domestic ethyl acetate Market rose first and then fell obviously in June. Although there was a slight increase in the later period, the overall trend was still weak.

Logistics prices rose slightly this month, and vehicles from northeast to Shandong and East China are hard to find. By the end of this month, the price of shipping goods from Heilongjiang to Shandong was 350 yuan / ton, and the shipping price had little change.

Latest price trends of ethanol market in different regions:

Region, category, price

Guangxi region Honey alcohol 7300-7350 yuan / ton

Guangxi region 95% alcohol 6950-7200 yuan / ton

Guangxi region Anhydrous ethanol 7700-7900 yuan / ton

Guangdong area Cassava alcohol About 7200 yuan / ton

Guangdong area 95% ethanol About 6950-7200 yuan / ton

Guangdong area Anhydrous cassava ethanol About 7750-7900 yuan / ton

Shandong Province General level 6700-6750 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Superior grade of corn 6900-7500 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Corn without water 7500 yuan / ton

Southern Jiangsu General level 7000-7050 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu General level 6450-6500 yuan / ton

Anhui Province Cassava general grade About 6900-6950 yuan / ton

Anhui Province anhydrous About 7650-7700 yuan / ton

Henan Province Top grade 6830-6850 yuan / ton, tax included

Henan Province Anhydrous ethanol 7400-7650 yuan / ton including tax

Hebei Province General level 6900-6950 yuan / ton

Hebei Province No water in coal 7600-7700 yuan / ton

Sichuan area Corn alcohol About 7550-7650 yuan / ton, including tax

Yunnan Province Molasses alcohol 6950-7100 yuan / ton

Heilongjiang area General grade of corn alcohol 6350 yuan / ton including tax

Jilin area Ordinary alcohol 6450 yuan / ton including tax

Corn prices are likely to weaken, but will not decline significantly in the long term. The cost pressure of corn ethanol is still high. At present, large factories mainly produce fuel, the edible inventory is not high, and the prices of large factories remain firm. Some factories may have a positive shipping mentality, and the prices may slightly weaken, but the space will not be too big. Ethanol analysts of business community expect that the domestic ethanol market will be mainly volatile.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of June 30, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 14633 yuan / ton, which was 3633 yuan / ton higher than that on April 1 (11000 yuan / ton).

Smooth conduction, n-butanol market rose more than 40 days since April, with an increase of over 46.97%

After the Qingming Festival in April, due to the general shipment of n-butanol in the market during the festival, the domestic n-butanol market went down slightly after the festival, which stimulated the shipment and achieved good results. In the next few days, the transaction of low-end prices turned better, and the enthusiasm for replenishment of small and medium-sized orders in the downstream increased. Since the middle of April, the domestic n-butanol market has been steadily rising, the spot transaction is gradually smooth, the downstream demand is increasing, the attitude of the industry is positive, and the n-butanol market is rising all the way to the end of the month. As of April 30, according to the data monitoring of the business society, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in China is 13000 yuan / ton, which is 2000 yuan / ton higher than that in early April, or 18.18%.

After May labor day, the domestic n-butanol market continued to rise to the beginning. Supported by the maintenance of n-butanol plant after the festival, low operation rate and stable demand of downstream butyl acrylate users, the spot supply of n-butanol was tight, and the market was in short supply. In just three working days, the average market price rose by 2500 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of n-butanol was 15566 yuan / ton on the 8th, with an increase of 19.54% three days after the festival. Subsequently, the market continued to rise sporadically at a high level. As of May 15, the average price of n-butanol market exceeded 16000 yuan / ton, with a reference of 16166 yuan / ton. Compared with early May, the average price of n-butanol increased by 24% in half a month and 46.97% in early April.

Under the high demand weakened, n-butanol market began to fall in late May

In the late May, the market price of n-butanol dropped. As of May 31, the reference price of domestic n-butanol was 14066 yuan / ton. Compared with early May, the average price of n-butanol increased by 1066 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 8.21%.

In June, the domestic n-butanol market gradually recovered, and the ex factory quotation of n-butanol in Shandong continued to rise. In 2, 3 and 4 days, the cumulative price rise of n-butanol market was 500-1000 yuan / ton. At the beginning of this month, supported by the delayed start-up of some plants, the spot supply of n-butanol plants continued to be tight, the downstream demand showed good performance, and the on-site delivery gas temperature rose steadily, In the first ten days of June, on the 15th, the average market price of n-butanol rose to 15800 yuan / ton, up 10.87% in half a month. In late June, the domestic n-butanol market dropped slightly, but the overall situation remained high.

To sum up, in the second quarter, in the first half, n-butanol rose all the way to the middle of May, and in the second half, the market dropped slightly, but the overall market remained at a high level. Therefore, by the end of June, the rise of n-butanol in the second quarter was close to 33%, which can be said to be the end of the sharp rise of n-butanol in the second quarter.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, in the first ten days of June, the market price of propylene oxide dropped sharply in the last ten days. After falling to a low point, the market price of propylene oxide began to rise steadily in the last ten days of June and stabilized temporarily on the 30th. Recently, due to the influence of logistics and start-up policy, the supply of propylene oxide has decreased, and the market is mainly on the lookout. At present, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 14000-14100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in East China is around 14200-14400 yuan / ton.

Aftermarket analysis

At present, the market of n-butanol in Shandong is running smoothly, the inventory of manufacturers is reasonable, the downstream just needs replenishment, and the attitude of the industry is positive. The n-butanol analysts of the business community believe that the domestic n-butanol market is expected to continue to develop well in the short term

1、 Price quotation

According to the data of business news agency, the cotton market in June experienced a process of first rising and then falling, and then rising again in the second half of the month. The price of 3128b lint was about 15791 yuan / ton on the 1st, and 16159 yuan / ton on the 30th, up 2.33% and 35.86% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Domestic: China’s cotton price index 3128b rose, with 15780 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 16097 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 317 yuan / ton, up about 2%. The settlement price of Zheng Mian’s main contract on the first day was 15470 yuan / ton, while the settlement price on the 30th day was 16020 yuan / ton, up 550 yuan / ton, up about 3.56%. In the middle of the month, the domestic supply and price stabilization policies were constantly introduced, which promoted the rational formation of commodity market prices. The domestic cotton spot price changed from rising to falling, and the domestic cotton yarn price changed to a small decline. In the second half of the month, Zheng cotton futures market rose, cotton spot rose.

According to customs statistics, in May 2021, China imported 170000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 60000 tons or 26% on a month on month basis, an increase of 100000 tons or more than doubled on a year-on-year basis. In May, China imported 168700 tons of cotton yarn, a month on month decrease of 27.12% and a year-on-year increase of 66.24%; The export of cotton yarn was 24800 tons, a month on month decrease of 8.95% and a year-on-year increase of 66.44%; The net import volume was 144000 tons, down 29.54% month on month and up 66.21% year on year.

International: supported by the US $6 trillion stimulus package, international cotton prices showed obvious rebound after resistance. International cotton price index rose, ice futures also rose. In the middle of the month, the US Department of Agriculture released the monthly forecast of global cotton supply and demand. In 2021 / 22, the global ending inventory decreased by 370600 tons to 19443000 tons. The output and consumption data of 2021 / 22 are the same as that of last month. With the decrease of inventory at the beginning of the period and the increase of export volume, the inventory at the end of the period is now reduced by 43600 tons to 631000 tons. Stimulated by data, international cotton prices continue to rise.

According to the rumors of interest rate increase by the central and US Federal Reserve in June, US stocks fell, international cotton futures prices fell, and spot prices fell significantly. In the following week, the Federal Reserve eased its interest rate increase speech and eased the market’s cautious mood, pushing the US stock market to a record high, adding to the hurricane rain weather in the US cotton area, supporting the rise of international cotton prices.

3、 Downstream industry chain

Summer is the traditional textile off-season, although the textile market began to enter the traditional off-season, but the overall sales are relatively smooth, and there is no significant accumulation of stock in the yarn mill. Zheng cotton and cotton yarn futures rose, as well as low inventory support yarn prices continued to stabilize, textile enterprises maintain a high operating rate. Due to the shortage of new orders in the cotton yarn market, the transaction price of some imported yarns increased due to the tight overseas freight transportation. In the downstream grey cloth market, the actual transactions are less, mainly in small batch or duplicate orders. Cotton prices rose, the willingness to replenish the lower reaches is not high, textile mills to maintain just need to purchase position, is expected to be stable in the short term.