Trade name: chlorinated paraffin

Latest price: 6100 yuan / ton

Commodity index: on July 29, the commodity index of chlorinated paraffin was 90.82, unchanged from yesterday, down 17.01% from the highest point 109.43 in the cycle (December 3, 2013), and up 42.24% from the lowest point 63.85 on September 26, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from June 1, 2012 to now)

Key points of analysis: the price of chlorinated paraffin is stable today. The market of raw liquid wax was generally stable, and some enterprises increased slightly. At present, the liquid wax market is well traded and the shipment volume is OK. The market of raw liquid chlorine is stable, and the transaction price is about 550 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: as the end of the month is approaching, the price of raw materials is stable, and the demand for chlorinated paraffin is acceptable. The supply and demand of chlorinated paraffin market is balanced, and the price has not changed yet. It is expected that the chlorinated paraffin market will run smoothly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business society, the price of bromine fell. At present, the average price in the domestic market is 44500 yuan / ton, down 0.97% compared with the previous trading day, and the price is up 64.14% compared with the same period last year. On July 27, the bromine commodity index was 157.68, unchanged from yesterday, down 2.44% from the highest point of 161.62 in the cycle (2021-07-01), and up 167.62% from the lowest point of 58.92 on October 29, 2014（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At present, domestic bromine is declining and the trading atmosphere is poor. At present, the mainstream report of enterprises is about 43000-45000 yuan / ton, and the bromine price is weaker than that of some time ago. It is mainly due to the low load of downstream flame retardants and intermediates, and the reduction of bromine procurement. There is resistance to the long-term rising bromine. Due to the high temperature in summer, the maintenance enterprises in the south are also increasing, and the bromine is mainly purchased on demand.

In terms of raw materials: domestic sulfur market is dominated by consolidation and operation, refineries in various regions are stable and small, downstream factories mainly purchase on demand, and there are a small number of orders in the market. The spot in the port is relatively concentrated, the quantity of supply ships is limited, and the mentality on the site is on the sidelines. During the week, refineries in various regions in China adjusted their prices according to their own shipments. The price of liquid sulfur was increased by 20-30 yuan / ton, and the price of sulfur fixation was temporarily stable..

Business analysts believe that the overall long-term supply of bromine is insufficient, and the supply growth is relatively slow. However, the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine are under construction, the demand for bromine is low, and they are resistant to high price bromine. It is expected that the short-term bromine price will be weak in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 27, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 16800 yuan / ton, down 9.07% compared with July 21 (the reference price of propylene oxide was 18475 yuan / ton), up 16.94% compared with June 27, and down 10.95% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

In mid and early July, the propylene oxide market was strong and upward, with an increase of 23.99%. Since late July, propylene oxide market has weakened. Recently, the representative factory slowly accumulated the warehouse, and the market supply tended to be loose. In addition, the price pressure in the middle and lower reaches was obvious, and the focus of market negotiation gradually decreased. On the 27th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 16300-16500 yuan / ton.

Upstream propylene, according to the bulk list data of business society, the recent (7.21-7.27) domestic propylene (Shandong) market rose slightly, with the average market price of 7768.55 yuan / ton on the 21st and 7824.91 yuan / ton on the 27th, an increase of 0.73%.

According to the monitoring data of downstream propylene glycol, as of July 27, the ex factory price of domestic industrial propylene glycol was 16533.33 yuan / ton, down 4.98% from July 21 (propylene glycol reference price was 17400 yuan / ton); For the downstream soft foam polyether, the soft foam polyether market in Shandong fell on July 27. The raw material propylene oxide was purchased with caution. At present, the mainstream quotation of ordinary soft foam polyether market in Shandong is around 16500-16800 yuan / ton.

The propylene oxide analyst of business society believes that, in a comprehensive view, the impact of the current cost side is not great, the supply side is becoming loose, the downstream market is depressed, the demand side temporarily drags down the market, and the market wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may be dominated by weak operation, and more specific trends still need to pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

1、 Price data

As of July 25, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 6968.00 yuan / ton, down 0.06% from 6972.00 yuan / ton on July 19. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 6800-7000 yuan / ton.

As of July 25, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 6775.00 yuan / ton, down 0.95% from 6840.00 yuan / ton on July 19. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 6700-6800 yuan / ton.

On July 25, the naphtha commodity index was 86.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 16.20% from the highest point of 102.62 in the cycle (September 24, 2012), and up 103.60% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016（ Note: period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha fell slightly this week. The refined naphtha market was weak this week, and the downstream just needed to purchase.

Upstream: the international crude oil price rebounds after falling, and the news of OPEC + production increase will be gradually digested. With the economic recovery, the optimistic prospect of international energy demand or the strong shock trend of supporting crude oil, the international crude oil price may remain high, and there is great pressure for the continuous rise of international crude oil.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business society, the price of toluene rebounded after falling this week. The price of toluene was 5780 yuan / ton on July 19 and 5780 yuan / ton on July 25, and the price remained stable. The price of mixed xylene fell this week. On July 19, the price of mixed xylene was 5920.00 yuan / ton, and on July 25, the price was 5860.00 yuan / ton, down 60 yuan / ton from last week, down 1.01%. In the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable this week, at 7100 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, there are 12 commodities rising month on month in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 29th week of 2021 (7.19-7.23), and the top three commodities are dimethyl ether (4.15%), power coal (3.66%) and liquefied natural gas (2.01%). There are three commodities with month on month decline, and the top three products are asphalt (- 2.43%), coke (- 0.95%) and naphtha (- 0.11%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.81%.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the recent rebound after the decline of international crude oil prices, the naphtha market is affected by the trend of crude oil and the slow release of terminal and aromatic demand, resulting in poor market activity, mainly downstream on-demand procurement, strong market wait-and-see mood, and it is expected to focus on refining naphtha in the near future.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride rose this week. As of the weekend, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 6525 yuan / ton, up 1.95% from the price of 6400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 28.89% year-on-year. Recently, the price trend of phthalic anhydride has risen, the spot supply on the site is normal, and the sales situation is general.

The recent market price trend of phthalic anhydride mainly increased slightly, the delivery situation of phthalic anhydride market is normal, the downstream demand has increased slightly recently, the price trend of orthobenzene is temporarily stable, the plasticizer market continues to rise, the rise of downstream market is good for the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride, and the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride is rising. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers maintained a low level, the operation rate of phthalic anhydride in the field was about 60%, the domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride was normal, the market price trend was temporarily stable, the market of downstream plasticizer industry rose steadily, and the actual transaction was normal. The market price trend of phthalic anhydride in East China is rising, and there are limited high-end transactions on the floor. The mainstream of adjacent France source negotiation in East China is 6500-6600 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene method source negotiation is 6300-6400 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 6500-6600 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride still exists in the field, and the downstream purchase is mainly on demand. Recently, the downstream DOP market trend has increased slightly. Affected by this, the market price trend of phthalic anhydride has increased.

The price trend of domestic orthobenzene was temporarily stable this week, with the on-site price of 6200 yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic orthobenzene was temporarily stable this week. The stable price of domestic orthobenzene is a good support for the phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the market of imported orthobenzene in the port area is temporarily stable, the quantity of imported orthobenzene in the port area is OK, the recent change in the inventory of orthobenzene in the port is small, the external quotation of orthobenzene fluctuates stably, and the actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, According to the detailed discussion, the price trend of phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, the price of raw material phthalic anhydride is stable, which is good for the domestic phthalic anhydride market price, and the recent phthalic anhydride market price trend has increased slightly.

The market price of DOP in the downstream of phthalic anhydride increased. According to the monitoring of business society, the domestic DOP price was 15233.33 yuan / ton by the end of the week, with an increase of 6.50% this week. The cost of DOP raw materials increased, the equipment operation of DOP enterprises increased slowly, the DOP supply was normal, the PVC price increased, and the downstream demand was general. Plasticizer DOP market has increased upward momentum and weakened downward pressure. The transaction price is subject to the real-time price. The overall DOP price is about 15000-15500 yuan / ton. The domestic demand for phthalic anhydride has little change. The downstream market has increased slightly, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride has increased.

On the whole, the recent crude oil price remains high, but the downstream plasticizer industry continues to rise, the DOP market has increased, and the price of phthalic anhydride is stable. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will increase in the later stage.

According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of July 21, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 12733.33 yuan / ton, up 17.90% compared with June 21, up 26.91% year-on-year in a three-month cycle, and up 79.76% compared with the same period last year.

In the past month, the domestic acrylic acid market has been rising actively and the market has been running strongly. The tight balance between supply and demand is the main factor supporting the rise of market prices. The overseas devices are abnormal, the export inquiries have increased significantly, the export orders of mainstream enterprises have been delivered in an orderly manner, and some domestic enterprises have shut down their devices for maintenance. As a result, the market supply is tight, the atmosphere of delivery and investment is active, and the focus of real order negotiation continues to rise. In late June, affected by the news of traffic restriction of some regional logistics, the lower reaches prepared goods in advance, and the inquiry and transaction were active, which pushed up the atmosphere strongly. Since July, the spot supply in the market has remained tight, and it is difficult to find low-cost goods. Recently, the price of raw propylene has risen, the cost support has been strengthened, the downstream replenishment demand is positive, and the price focus has further increased.

Upstream propylene, according to the data of the business club’s block list, as of July 20, the reference price of propylene was 7673.09, up 0.21% compared with Monday’s price. The overall trading atmosphere of the market was acceptable, and the market rose slightly.

According to the acrylic acid analysts of business news agency, generally speaking, the current price of raw material propylene is relatively strong, which gives some support to the market. The acrylic acid industry is under construction, the market transactions are positive and orderly, and the tight balance between supply and demand continues. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be mainly strong in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

1、 Price data

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the price of petroleum coke products of domestic refiners rose slightly, with the average price of 2214.00 yuan / ton in Shandong market on July 18, an average price of 2194.00 yuan / ton compared with that in July 12, and the price increased by 0.91%.

The petroleum coke commodity index was 172.20 on July 18, which was flat with yesterday, down 6.53% from the peak of 184.23 (2021-05-25) in the cycle, up 157.44% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the maintenance of refineries increased, the supply of petroleum coke decreased, and the coking price of the area rose well.

Upstream: international crude oil prices fell, the Fed’s position was wobbling under high inflation, the CPI in June rose beyond expectations, and the market generally worried about the tightening of monetary policy caused by high inflation pressure; OPEC + policies were implemented, and the agreement on production increase was reached, and the market expected to increase supply; The variation and spread of superimposed virus are accelerating, and the blockade measures are implemented to suppress fuel demand in the severe trend of Multi Country epidemic.

Downstream: by the electrolytic aluminum enterprises just need to support, carbon products overall good delivery; The price of calcined coke increased; The price of electrolytic aluminum in the downstream of the week rose, and as of July 19, the price was 19426.67 yuan / ton; In the short term, the demand of the downstream silicone and polysilicon industry is strong, and the market price of silicon metal is stable and rising.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, there are 6 commodities rising in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 28th week (7.12-7.16) in 2021, with the top three commodities rising respectively as LNG (3.75%), power coal (2.29%), and liquefied gas (1.52%). There are 9 commodities falling on a month-on-month basis, with 1 commodity falling more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three products were coke (-5.26%), WTI crude oil (-3.90%), Brent crude oil (-2.75%). This week, the average rise and fall was -0.49 per cent.

The analysts of petroleum coke of business society believe that: in the near future, the refineries have been overhauled, the supply of oil coke in the field has been reduced, the market performance of electrolytic aluminum is better, carbon enterprises are active in purchasing petroleum coke and supporting supply and demand, and it is expected that the oil Coke will be stable in the near future.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the chloroform market fell slightly this week (7.12-7.16). The price of chloroform was 4377 yuan / ton on the third day of the week, and 4365 yuan / ton on the weekend, with an overall small decline of 0.29%.

The price of raw material liquid chlorine is at a low level, the price of methanol is in a narrow range, and the cost support becomes weak. According to the business news agency, as of July 16, the price of methanol was 2535 yuan / ton, slightly changed from 2530 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; The main factory price of liquid chlorine for tank cars in Shandong Province is about 1050 yuan / ton.

Although it has entered into continuous high temperature weather, there is no obvious increase in refrigerant sales in the near future. Affected by the increase of refrigerant inventory, the maintenance of refrigerant devices increases, and the support for chloroform weakens.

Business community methane chloride data analysts believe that the cost side to maintain low stage, coupled with the weakening demand side support, it is expected that the later chloroform market will be weak.

Domestic cobalt price rises again

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, this week’s Cobalt market is not continuing, and the rising trend has experienced twists and turns. Since July 7, the cobalt price has been adjusted by shock, and the rising trend of cobalt price has slowed down. On July 13, the cobalt market has ushered in another turning point, and the cobalt price has soared again. As of July 16, the price of cobalt was 376333.34 yuan / ton, up 5200 yuan / ton or 1.39% from 371166.66 yuan / ton on July 13. Short term cobalt prices continue to rise, cobalt Market where to go?

South African unrest disrupts Logistics

The arrest of South Africa’s former President Zuma has triggered many protests and riots. On Monday, July 12, South Africa’s national large-scale protests and demonstrations were launched by the protestors, further escalating the situation. On the evening of 13 local time, a spokesman for the South African Police Department said that the protest had spread in many provinces of South Africa. On July 14, South Africa reported again that the protest had led to the closure of many ports in KwaZulu Natal province and the interruption of high-speed roads from KwaZulu Natal province to various parts of South Africa. The port of Durban, South Africa’s import and export hub and one of the busiest shipping terminals on the African continent, was brought to a standstill because of the protest, but the protest seems to continue to spread.

Affected by the riots caused by the protests in South Africa, some shipping companies in the port of Durban issued a letter of force majeure, saying that they would suspend operation temporarily. In view of the uncertainty of the duration of the force majeure, the re operation time is also to be determined. According to Maersk’s notice, at present, a large number of inland warehouses in Durban have been closed. Due to the lack of staff and equipment, the port terminal in Durban is at a standstill, and the logistics providers suspend their services, resulting in the interruption of import and export. The interruption of logistics in South Africa is bound to affect the transportation of cobalt raw materials, which will stimulate the rise of cobalt price.

Market Overview

Congo (DRC) is the most inland Democratic Republic of Congo, and most of the cobalt mining areas in the world. It mainly transports cobalt through neighboring African ports (mainly including the port of Durban in South Africa and the port of Dar es Salaam in Tanzania). The unrest in South Africa has brought the port of Durban to a standstill, and the recovery time is yet to be determined.

Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of business news agency, believes that as one of the most important transportation ports of cobalt raw materials, the stagnation of the port of Durban is bound to lead to a sharp decrease in the short-term export of cobalt raw materials, and the tight supply of cobalt raw materials will stimulate the rise of cobalt prices. Due to the long shipping period, the shipping time from South Africa to China is about 1.5-2 months, and there will be no shortage of supply in the domestic cobalt Market in the short term. With the continuous development of turmoil and epidemic situation in South Africa, the risk of shortage of cobalt raw materials is increasing. Meanwhile, the turmoil in South Africa stimulates the search for transportation routes outside South Africa, and the overall risk of supply shortage in cobalt market is limited. Generally speaking, in the short term, the interruption of logistics in South Africa increases the risk of shortage of cobalt raw material supply, and the price of cobalt may rise sharply in the short term; The risk of long-term supply shortage of cobalt raw materials is small, the logistics and transportation costs increase, and the cobalt price is expected to rise slightly.

Recent trend of sulfuric acid price

As can be seen from the figure above, the price of sulfuric acid distribution in Shandong increased this week, from 613.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 623.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 1.63%, 51.11% over the same period last year. Overall, the sulfuric acid market rose this week, with the sulfuric acid commodity index at 99.09 on July 9.

Downstream market boosted, purchasing intention strengthened

From the quotation of manufacturers, the price of mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong Province rose this week, the inventory of manufacturers was general, and the downstream demand was good. Heze Jiangyuan quoted 660 yuan / ton over the weekend, up 30 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu quoted 560 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei quoted 650 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the sulfur market in the upstream has risen steadily in the near future, with the quotation rising from 1643.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1646.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 0.20%. Compared with the same period of last year, the price has increased by 152.04% year on year, with good cost support. Moreover, the bromine market in the lower reaches was in a high consolidation, with the quotation of 45850.00 yuan / ton this week, an increase of 72.52% over the same period last year. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products have a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid this week.

After a small shock up

In the middle of July, the sulfuric acid Market in Shandong may rise slightly. The price of sulfur in the upper reaches has been consolidated at a high level recently, and the cost support is good. Moreover, the price of bromine in the lower reaches has also begun to rise. The purchasing enthusiasm of sulfuric acid in the lower reaches has been strengthened, and the product trend has risen under the contradiction between supply and demand. Business community sulfuric acid analysts believe that the short-term Shandong market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of sulfuric acid market or small shock rise.