In June, the domestic textile market continued to fluctuate and adjusted slightly. According to the textile index of business community, as of June 28, the textile index was 950 points, up 3 points from 947 points at the beginning of the month, down 17.82% from the highest point 1156 points (September 3, 2018) in the cycle, and up 39.50% from the lowest point 681 points (August 13, 2020)（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now

June 1-28 textile commodity price rise and fall list unit: yuan / ton

commodity June 1st June 28th Up and down Year on year rise and fall

PTA four thousand seven hundred and sixty-four point five five five thousand one hundred and fifty-nine point five five 8.29% 40.91%

spandex sixty-nine thousand and four hundred seventy-five thousand 8.07% 138.10%

Polyester FDY seven thousand four hundred and fifty-five point seven one seven thousand seven hundred and twenty-five point seven one 3.62% 22.83%

lint fifteen thousand seven hundred and ninety-one sixteen thousand one hundred and fifty-six point five 2.31% 35.92%

acrylonitrile fourteen thousand four hundred and eighty fourteen thousand seven hundred and ninety 2.14% 70%

Polyester staple fiber six thousand nine hundred and fifty-one point six seven seven thousand and twenty-six point six seven 1.08% 17.60%

raw silk four hundred and nineteen thousand four hundred and twenty-three thousand 0.95% 47.13%

Polyester POY seven thousand two hundred and thirty-eight point eight nine seven thousand three hundred and five point five six 0.92% 30.60%

Polyester DTY eight thousand seven hundred and six point three six eight thousand seven hundred and seventy-nine point zero nine 0.84% 20.65%

Nylon FDY twenty thousand twenty thousand 0% 19.40%

Dried cocoon one hundred and thirty-nine thousand one hundred and thirty-nine thousand 0% 47.87%

Polyester yarn fourteen thousand and one hundred fourteen thousand and one hundred 0% 7.14%

Nylon DTY nineteen thousand eight hundred and sixty nineteen thousand six hundred and sixty – 1.01% 22.88%

Cotton yarn 32S twenty-six thousand and one hundred twenty-five thousand six hundred and sixty-six point six seven – 1.66% 24.14%

Cotton yarn 21s twenty-four thousand nine hundred and sixty-six point six seven twenty-four thousand five hundred and thirty-three point three three – 1.74% 24.53%

Nylon POY seventeen thousand and four hundred seventeen thousand and seventy-five – 1.87% 25.55%

Viscose staple thirteen thousand and eight hundred thirteen thousand four hundred and sixty – 2.46% 41.68%

Rayon yarn eighteen thousand and two hundred seventeen thousand four hundred and thirty-three point three three – 4.21% 25.72%

Among the 18 kinds of commodities in the textile sector in the list of commodity price rise and fall, 9 kinds of commodities rose month on month, among which PTA (8.29%), spandex (8.07%) and polyester FDY (3.62%) were the top three. There were 6 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products were rayon yarn (- 4.21%), viscose staple fiber (- 2.46%) and nylon POY (- 1.87%).

The spandex market rose rapidly in June. As of June 29, the price was 75000 yuan / ton, up 8.07% from the beginning of the month and 138.10% from the same period last year, reaching a 10-year high.

With the increase of demand, the supply of spandex continues to be tight. With the increasing demand for leisure and sports clothing products, spandex as an important raw material of elastic fabric, the demand also increases accordingly. At present, the start-up of the spandex industry remains at a high level around 90%, but the inventory level continues to drop to a historical low. Some manufacturers say that they have only 3-5 days’ supply, and some even say that there is no inventory pressure for the time being. At the same time, the export volume of spandex increased. As some foreign markets have not yet fully recovered due to the impact of the epidemic, the orders turned to the domestic market. The export volume in the first five months was about 40500 tons, up 58% over the same period last year.

In addition, the strong rise of raw material end is also an important reason to drive the price of spandex up all the way. This year, affected by environmental protection, PTMEG industry chain is very hot. The market price of PTMEG is 1800 molecular weight, and the mainstream factory offers around 38000 yuan / ton, while the mainstream offer in the same period last year is 14000-15000 yuan / ton. The mainstream negotiation of pure MDI in East China market was 19600-20000 yuan / ton by telegraphic transfer in barrels, and the quotation in the same period last year was 13600-14200 yuan / ton by telegraphic transfer in barrels.

Business analysts believe that domestic demand plus export double good, promote the good development of spandex industry. It is difficult to improve the short-term supply shortage of spandex itself, and some factories still have the intention to explore. It is expected that the spandex market is expected to maintain a high level in the short term, and we still need to pay attention to the changes of cost side and terminal demand in the later stage.

As of June 27, the average 180CST price of domestic fuel oil was 4750.00 yuan / ton (including tax), up 0.37% from 4732.50 yuan / ton on June 21, according to the data of business news agency.

On June 27, the fuel oil commodity index was 96.20, unchanged from yesterday, down 17.00% from 115.91 (October 17, 2018), the highest point in the cycle, and up 108.77% from 46.08, the lowest point on August 15, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

Domestic marine oil raw materials rose to fuel oil 180CST cost support. According to the business news agency, as of June 27, the 180 CST self provided low sulfur price of fuel oil in Zhoushan was 4750 yuan / ton, and the 120 CST self provided low sulfur price of fuel oil was 4850 yuan / ton; The price of 180 CST self provided low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 4750 yuan / ton, and that of 120 CST self provided low sulfur fuel oil is 4850 yuan / ton.

The rise of international crude oil prices, the gradual recovery of international economy in many regions, the continuous growth of vaccination in the U.S. region, and the peak season of U.S. crude oil demand, the expectation of recovery of European and American demand boosted the crude oil market. In addition, OPEC + alliance continued to adhere to the measure of gradually restoring supply from June to July, which offset the risk of increasing supply caused by the consensus reached in the U.S. – Iran nuclear agreement negotiations, supporting oil prices.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, supporting fuel oil prices. It is understood that Singapore’s enterprise development board (ESG): in the week ending June 23, Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased by 574000 barrels to a four week low of 23403000 barrels.

Future forecast: business community energy analysts believe that the recent rise in crude oil prices is good support, but the market trading is weak, terminal shipping demand is weak, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high, mainly on-demand purchasing, rising resistance is large, ship fuel wholesalers are under pressure in both directions, at the end of the month and the beginning of the week, ship fuel 180CST market is expected to be stable in the near future.

According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, as of June 25, the average price of melamine enterprises was 10666.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the price at the beginning of the week, decreased by 1.84% compared with the price on May 25 (10866.67 yuan / ton), and increased by 31.42% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Since entering June, the melamine market rose broadly in the first half of the month, with a rise of 16.18%. From the second half of the month, the market rose slowly. This week, the market prices in different regions showed differences. The prices in the northern region were running at a high level, the demand side performance was poor, the high-end trading was weak, and the market atmosphere was weak. Sichuan and Xinjiang prices rose, the market atmosphere is fair. This week, the melamine operating rate has declined, the market supply side has decreased, but the domestic trade demand follow-up is insufficient, the market performance is general.

Upstream urea, as of June 25, Shandong urea market rose, compared with the price at the beginning of the week by 0.75%. The price of upstream coal has risen sharply recently, and the cost support has been strengthened. From the aspect of demand, the demand of agriculture in different areas has been cooling down, and the demand of agriculture has been decreasing; However, the price of compound fertilizer in the lower reaches has risen, and the construction of rubber sheet factories and melamine enterprises is acceptable, and most of them are used as soon as they are mined. In terms of supply, the daily output of urea plants is still lower than that of the same period last year, and the supply side is tight. At the same time, the enterprise inventory and social inventory are also kept at a low position. Affected by the shortage of coal, some areas begin to reduce production.

Melamine analysts of business news agency believe that the price of upstream urea is relatively strong in the near future, and the cost pressure still exists, but the demand side is relatively weak, and the market is in a strong wait-and-see mood. It is expected that the price of melamine may be stable and loose in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the information guidance of upstream and downstream.

On Tuesday night, the U.S. dollar index fell in late trading, while the LME nonferrous metal market closed higher, boosted by the U.S. dollar. The majority of domestic metals rose in early trading today, and Shanghai lead continued its weak trend at night. By the end of the 23rd, the settlement price of the main contract of Shanghai lead 2107 was 15490 yuan / ton, down 0.32%.

The price of lead ingot in the domestic spot lead market is about 15250-15350 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15300 yuan / ton, up 75 yuan / ton from the previous trading day. At present, the tight supply of domestic ore end is still continuing, which has a certain support for the price of lead. However, the willingness to receive goods from downstream is still low, the overall trading atmosphere of the market is still weak, and purchasing on demand is maintained. In the future, the business community believes that under the situation that the downstream demand has not yet recovered, it is difficult for the lead price to fluctuate greatly, and the fluctuation trend will still be maintained in the short term.

Recent urea price trend

From the above figure, the factory price of urea in Shandong Province fell this week, and the price of urea in Shandong Province fell from 2700.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2680.00 yuan / ton at the weekend, down 0.74%, up 59.84% compared with the same period last year. Overall, urea fell this week, with the urea commodity index of 124.65 on June 18.

Upstream support is enhanced, downstream demand slows down, supply side is tight

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the main factory price of urea in Shandong Province fell this week. Urea in yangcoal plain has not been quoted this week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2680 yuan / ton this weekend, which was down 20 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; No quotation for urea in open water chemical industry this week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream urea products in this week generally saw a big increase: the price of liquefied natural gas rose slightly, and the quotation rose from 3546.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3626.67 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 2.26%, up 44.87% year on year compared with the same period last year; The price of power coal rose slightly, and the price rose from 931.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 973.75 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 4.56%, up 70.68% compared with the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, and the price rose from 4366.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4400.00 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 0.76%, up 41.18% compared with the same period last year. This week, the price of melamine downstream urea increased slightly, from 10333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 10600.00 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 2.58%.

From the aspect of demand: the peak of agricultural demand has passed, and the industrial demand has been steadily followed up; Downstream compound fertilizer plant, rubber plate factory can start, the new enterprise follow-up slightly. From the aspect of supply: the unit maintenance of urea enterprises is still in the near future, with an average operating rate of about 75%, a daily production of 160000 tons, and a tight supply end. Overall, the support for urea cost this week increased, downstream demand slowed down and urea supply was tight.

The price of the later market is still strong, focusing on the dynamic printing mark

In late June, the urea market in Shandong Province was mainly in a small fluctuation. Urea analysts of business agency believe that agricultural demand in various regions has declined, industrial demand is not obvious good, urea supply is tight, downstream businesses have a strong atmosphere of high price urea watching, and market prices fluctuate slightly.

Trend of magnesium price

The price rise of magnesium market has been strong, and magnesium price in some regions has risen to 20000000 / T on June 17. As of June 18, the specific price range of each region is as follows:

The ex factory tax cash exchange in fugu area is 20000-20400 yuan / ton; Ningxia ex factory tax cash exchange is 20200-20400 yuan / ton; The ex factory tax cash exchange in Taiyuan area is 20400-20500 yuan / ton; The ex factory tax cash exchange in Wenxi area is 20400-20600 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of cost

Due to the influence of safety inspection of some coal plants, the coal supply is tight. Although there is a government price limit policy, the coal price is still rising until the domestic coal supply is up. In the situation of raw coal becoming more and more tense, the market quotation of magnesium ingot can only be favorable. If the coal supply cannot be solved, the magnesium price will rise and fall in the short term.

From the perspective of demand

After the Dragon Boat Festival, magnesium price ushered in a wave of strong price increases, the price was up 0.89% compared with the previous quarter. On the first day after the festival, the market resumed, the downstream demand was released intensively, and downstream customers actively purchased and prepared goods.

Future forecast

In conclusion, business analysts believe that most magnesium plants are reluctant to sell at low price under the condition of strong cost support. The purchase of downstream customers is more positive, and the magnesium price will also be high in late June. However, considering the macro policy factors, there is limited room for magnesium price rise.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of June 18, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 10466.67 yuan / ton. This week, the DMF market was stable, with little price fluctuation, stable negotiation focus, flat downstream demand, and just need to take orders.

This week, the DMF market was mainly stable, the overall market transaction atmosphere was flat, the downstream just needed to replenish, the shipment was slow, the current inventory was normal, the negotiation center was stable, the upstream methanol transaction atmosphere was general, and the cautious wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. The methanol market transaction price in Shandong Luzhong region was about 2310-2320 yuan / ton, which was sent to cash, and the overall market transaction situation was weak.

On June 18, the chemical industry index was 1040 points, 1 point lower than yesterday, 4.06% lower than 1084 points (2021-05-13), the highest point in the cycle, and 73.91% higher than 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now

Business agency DMF analysts believe that: downstream demand is limited, upstream support is general, DMF market is mainly stable in the short term（ For more information on the latest industry chain, welcome to pay attention to official account of business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp commodity price.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, hydrogen peroxide ended rising in mid May, and started the mode of diving in Gaotai. The market fell continuously until June 16, a month deep. As of June 16, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market was 993 yuan / ton, and the price fell 10.24%.

According to the weekly increase and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide in business agencies from March 22 to June 13, 2021, it can be seen that after the Spring Festival, the hydrogen peroxide market has weakened, with a decline of more than 3.6%. Hydrogen peroxide showed a big rise in early March, up more than 5%, after the big rise began to dive, continue the weak market. In April, in the middle of the month, hydrogen peroxide rose again, up more than 5 percent, and it was still a decline after the big rise. After May 1, hydrogen peroxide was in weak operation, and the rising mode was opened in the middle month, rising to May 22, up more than 10%. At the end of the month, hydrogen peroxide Market opened diving, falling continuously, falling more than 7%. Since June, hydrogen peroxide tried to rise, but the demand was poor, and the overall trend remained down, falling by more than 10% as of June 16.

On June 16, some domestic hydrogen peroxide manufacturers quoted the following:

The price of hydrogen peroxide in Luxi Chemical Industry is 860 yuan / ton, which is stable compared with last week; The price of hydrogen peroxide fertilizer in Zhengyuan, Hebei Province, is 1000 yuan / ton, which is 50 yuan / ton lower than that of last week; Anhui Quansheng chemical hydrogen peroxide quoted 1120 yuan / ton, the price fell 40 yuan / ton from last week.

On the continuous weakness of hydrogen peroxide in the demand of terminal paper industry

On June 16, the price index of hydrogen peroxide and corrugated paper commodity was 136.80, down 2.32 points from yesterday, down 44.39% from 246.00 (October 21, 2019), and 27.21% higher than the lowest point 107.54 on January 29, 2019（ Note: cycle refers to January 1, 2017 to present)

In June, the end paper industry improved and the price continued to rise. The main reason is that the scale paper enterprises take the lead in small increase, leading to the rise of small and medium-sized paper enterprises; Because some paper enterprises in northern China are affected by the environmental protection of the atmosphere, the market supply is tight and the price rises. Although the paper industry is improving, but the start-up rate is low, and demand for hydrogen peroxide procurement has declined, so the hydrogen peroxide market has fallen continuously.

Li Bing, an analyst with hydrogen peroxide at the business agency, thinks: hydrogen peroxide enters the off-season of consumption, the terminal demand is poor, and it is difficult to increase the market in a short period, and still will be dominated by weak operation.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of activated carbon was 9066 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, and 9133 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 0.36%.

At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12500 yuan / ton; Domestic demand for activated carbon in the downstream turned better, and the atmosphere of on-site trading was active. Most of the deliveries were made according to orders, and more attention was paid to the downstream transactions.

The raw materials of activated carbon are rich, including coal, sawdust, fruit shell, straw, etc.

Forecast: most of the activated carbon market will be purchased on demand, with small orders to meet the normal production. Most of the traders will maintain the shipment and reduce the warehouse. In the short term, the price of activated carbon will be mainly adjusted by shock.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, as of June 11, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 7733 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on June 10, the average price decreased by 267 yuan / ton, or 3.33%. Compared with the price on June 1, the average price decreased by 1067 yuan / ton, or 12.12%.

Since June, the domestic butanone market has continued to decline. Under the imbalance between supply and demand, the contradiction has gradually intensified, and the market shows signs of bidding. On June 11, the ex factory price of butanone in a factory in Shandong Province was lowered again to 7200 yuan / ton, down by 600 yuan / ton. Subsequently, the transaction price of butanone in Nanjing market also eased slightly, The ex factory price of butanone in Northwest China also decreased slightly by 200-300 yuan / ton. The overall trading atmosphere of butanone market is general, the pressure on supply continues, the confidence of the industry weakens, the downstream is cautious and just needs support. Today’s overall market performance is mainly weak. The factory price of domestic butanone market is 7733 yuan / ton, compared with the previous working day, the average price is reduced by 267 yuan / ton, a one-day drop of 3.33%.

On the upstream side, since June, the domestic LPG market in Shandong has risen first and then dropped, and after a slight correction, it has been basically flat with the market price at the beginning of the month. On June 11, the civil LPG market in Shandong Province rose steadily with little fluctuation. The transaction atmosphere in the market was mild and the enthusiasm for downstream market entry was limited. However, the inventory of most manufacturers was at a controllable level. It is expected that the shipment will be stable during the festival. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the reference price of LPG on June 11 was 4140 yuan / ton, down 0.08% compared with that on June 1 (4143.33 yuan / ton).

During the festival, butanone market was weak and mainly operated

At present, the domestic butanone market as a whole is still at a high level with full supply and limited adjustment in the short term. Therefore, butanone analysts of business community believe that during the festival, the domestic butanone market has limited substantial adjustment, and the overall situation is mainly weak.