441 silicon price trend

On May 14, 2021, the price of metallic silicon (441) rose. According to the data of business news agency, the average price of domestic silicon metal (441) market on May 14 was 13516.67 yuan / ton, up 1.44% compared with the average price of 13325 yuan / ton on the previous day, and up 3.84% compared with the average price of 13016.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of may (5.1).

On the 14th, the prices of 441 silicon in different regions were as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Fujian is 12600-12700 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan is 13300-13500 yuan / ton, that in Kunming is 13400-13600 yuan / ton, that in Shanghai is 14100-14300 yuan / ton, and that in Tianjin port is 13500-13600 yuan / ton, The price range of silicon metal in Huangpu port is 13700-13900 yuan / ton.

Except for Fujian, silicon metal in other areas increased slightly compared with the same period last month.

Silicon market stabilized and rose in May

After the festival, the quotation of low-grade silicon was tentatively raised, and the silicon market as a whole began to stop falling and stabilize. On the 13th, the quotation of Yunnan Baoshan silicon plant was suspended due to power restriction and shutdown. Although the number of new heats of Sichuan silicon plant had a slight upward trend, the overall capacity was not large. On the supply side, the output of silicon metal decreased slightly in April, and the social inventory of silicon metal showed a downward trend in early May. Recently, the price of aluminum has soared, and the price of aluminum alloy in the downstream has gone up by leaps and bounds; The price of polysilicon in the lower reaches is going up, and at present, the silicon market is supported by rising fundamentals.

1、 Price quotation

According to the data of business news agency, the price of 3128b lint was about 16231 yuan / ton on the 12th. It was up 5.54% month on month.

2、 Market analysis

On the 12th, China’s cotton price index was 3128b, 16218 yuan, up 144 yuan from yesterday. Since May, cotton spot market is in a volatile upward trend, the market is better. As of May 11, 2021, the total amount of lint processing in Xinjiang is 5.7826 million tons. In the futures market, the opening price of the main contract 2109 of zhengmian on the 12th was 15945 yuan / ton, the settlement price was 16135 yuan / ton, and the closing price was 16310 yuan / ton, up 2.58% from the previous trading day. Recently, the U.S. cotton market slightly weakened, focusing on the upcoming USDA supply and demand report in May.

3、 Downstream industry chain

The price of pure cotton yarn continued to improve, and the market was smooth. The price of various varieties of cotton yarn rose slightly. Due to the large fluctuation of raw material price, the textile enterprises were mainly small orders and short orders. The price of pure cotton yarn is relatively strong recently, with an increase of about 300-500 yuan / ton. At present, the cotton yarn inventory of textile enterprises continues to decline. On the whole, the mills still focus on delivery, and some of them are facing the shortage of new orders. The downstream market is better, and the future market is expected to be mainly volatile.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (May 10): 2156.67 yuan / ton

On May 10, the ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong was temporarily stable, which was the same as that on May 7. Upstream liquid ammonia Market recent high consolidation, cost support is good. In the aspect of demand, agricultural demand is mainly sporadic procurement; The start-up load of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber sheet plants increased slightly, and most of them followed the market. Supply side: at present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 70%, with a decrease, and the daily output is about 150000 tons. Urea plant maintenance, supply side tightening. India bid: on May 5, the bidding price of mmtc urea in India was announced. The lowest price on the west coast was 358.99 USD / T CFR, and the lowest price on the east coast was 356.99 USD / T CFR, equivalent to about 2120 RMB / T.

It is expected that the ex factory price of urea in Shandong will rise slightly in the future: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 2160 yuan / ton.

According to the data monitored by the business society (the average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), on May 7, the mainstream average price of PVC in China was 9150 yuan / ton, up 2.09% from the beginning of this month and 62.67% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

After the May Day holiday, the PVC futures market made a good start, and the price rose strongly, driving the spot trend. On May 6 and 7, the price rose by about 2%, with a year-on-year increase of more than 60%. Manufacturers generally increased, with a daily increase of about 100-200 yuan / ton. Most of the quotations now rose to above 9000 yuan / ton. Traders’ offers also soared, and the overall focus of the market moved up. In recent days, the price of raw calcium carbide has risen, and the cost support has gradually strengthened. Moreover, the number of maintenance enterprises has increased in May, and the market supply has tightened, which is good for the price of PVC. At present, the export market has weakened, but the domestic market is relatively stable, and the quotation of downstream products industry has also risen with the rising of raw material market. However, the acceptance of high price PVC is still not high, and the market transaction is light, so we continue to maintain the purchase of rigid demand and make up on the cheap. Overall, the market is strong, raw material prices, tight supply, stable demand and other positive support PVC market strong operation.

In terms of spot price, the main quotation range of pvc5 calcium carbide in China is around 9000-9300 yuan / ton. Pvc5 calcium carbide in Hangzhou area is 9300-9500 yuan / ton; The main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Changzhou area is 9300-9450 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC in Guangzhou is 9300-9450 yuan / ton; Prices have risen in various markets.

Futures, a strong rise in spot prices, May 7 v2109 contract opening price: 9120, the highest price: 9305, the lowest price: 9115, positions: 467793, settlement price: 9225, yesterday’s settlement: 9045, up 180.

region varieties technology May 7 remarks

East China PVC Calcium carbide process 9400-9480 yuan / ton Delivery

south China PVC Calcium carbide process 9350-9500 yuan / ton Delivery

North China PVC Calcium carbide process 9180-9260 yuan / ton To

southwest PVC Calcium carbide process 9000-9200 yuan / ton To

The following part of the enterprise device dynamic, for reference only:

enterprise technology capacity Device dynamics recovery time

Shaanxi Jintai Calcium carbide process thirty Scheduled maintenance on May 20 The plan is about a week

Hunan Hengyang Jiantao Calcium carbide process twenty-two Planned maintenance in early May The plan is about two weeks

Heilongjiang Haohua Calcium carbide process thirty Scheduled maintenance on May 15 The plan is about a week

Taishan salinization Calcium carbide process ten Scheduled maintenance on May 10 The plan is about a week

Lutai chemical Calcium carbide process forty-eight Scheduled maintenance on May 23 The plan is about a week

Yidong Dongxing Calcium carbide process thirty Scheduled maintenance on May 20 The plan is about a week

Yushe, Shanxi Calcium carbide process forty Scheduled maintenance in mid May The plan is about a week

Hubei Yihua Calcium carbide process twenty-five Scheduled maintenance on May 10 The plan is about 10 days

Xinjiang Tianye Calcium carbide process one hundred and thirty Tianyu 200000 tons plan to be overhauled on May 14 The plan is about a week

For international crude oil, on May 7, international oil prices closed slightly up and down. The settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was $64.71/barrel, up 0.19 or 0.3%. The settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was $68.08/barrel, down $0.01. The U.S. released non-agricultural data unexpectedly, and the oil price dropped significantly in a short time, once down more than 1%. However, supported by the optimism of global economic recovery, the relaxation of travel restrictions in Europe and the United States, the resumption of factory operation and vaccination boosted the recovery expectations, and the oil price turned to rise, The closing was basically flat last trading day.

Ethylene, May 6, European ethylene market, FD northwest Europe quoted 1256-1267 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe quoted 1200-1209 US dollars / ton, up 6 US dollars / ton. On May 6, in the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted 881-893 US dollars / ton, up 6 US dollars / ton. Recently, the US ethylene market fell, and the demand was acceptable. On May 6, the price of ethylene in Asia was USD 1102-1110 / T in Northeast Asia and USD 1047-1055 / T in Southeast Asia. Recently, ethylene prices in Asia are mainly stable. Affected by the drop in upstream crude oil prices, ethylene market may fall mainly in the later period..

The reference price of calcium carbide in Northwest China was 4616.67 on May 7, up 1.47% compared with 4550.00 on May 1. The price of raw material orchid charcoal was low and the cost of calcium carbide was generally supported. PVC market in the lower reaches of the recent high consolidation, maintenance completed, downstream customers on calcium carbide procurement enthusiasm in general. Calcium carbide is expected to rise slightly in the future.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts from business news agency believe that after the holiday, the PVC market has made a good start, the futures price has risen sharply, driving the spot trend. In addition, the price of raw material calcium carbide has continued to rise, the demand is stable, and the maintenance is good. It is expected that the PVC market will continue to rise in a volatile way in the short term.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business news agency, the acetic acid market continued to rise this week. The price of acetic acid at the weekend was 8062.50 yuan / ton, which was 6.79% higher than the average ex factory price of 7550.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 31.24% higher than that of last month. As of April 30, the market price of acetic acid in China is as follows:

region date offer

Shandong Province April 30th 7900-8150 yuan / ton

Jiangsu Province April 30th 8300-8500 yuan / ton

Zhejiang Province April 30th 8400-8600 yuan / ton

Hebei Province April 30th 7900-8000 yuan / ton

Northwest China April 30th 7550 yuan / ton

South China April 30th 8600-8700 yuan / ton

North China April 30th 7900-8000 yuan / ton

This week, the domestic high level of acetic acid was strong, the supply of acetic acid in the market was tight, and Henan Shunda acetic acid plant was still under repair, so the manufacturer’s supply was insufficient. Downstream demand remained strong, and acetic acid export gave support, acetic acid market continued to be strong.

In the domestic methanol market, the overall price rose by 1.39% in the week. The inventory of Northwest enterprises is not high, and some olefins are imported to support the state of mind. The inventory of ports is reduced, and the futures market is good. The domestic spot price is rising. At present, the Shandong area is about 2560 yuan / ton.

On the downstream side, the market of vinyl acetate and acetate was sorted out and operated. Some manufacturers were affected by the shortage of raw materials to reduce production load. The market supply was strong, and the terminal purchased on demand. The future market was running at a high level.

According to acetic acid analysts of business society, at present, the quotation of domestic acetic acid market is high and firm, the supply of market goods continues to be tight, and Henan Shunda plant has not been restarted, so it is difficult to make up for the supply gap in a short time, and the acetic acid Market continues to run at a high level in the later stage.