According to the data monitored by the business community, as of May 28, the average price of pet water bottle manufacturers was 6816.67 yuan / ton. This week, the PET bottle chip market was stable and weak. The mainstream quotation range was 6800-6900 yuan / ton. The raw material end was weak and the cost support was general.

This week, the pet market continued to be stable, the cost side support was weak, the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, the transaction atmosphere was flat, the demand was low, the follow-up efforts were insufficient, the inventory was general, the factory continued to be stable, the downstream demand was insufficient, the number of new orders was limited, the purchasing atmosphere was flat, the weak operation was maintained in the short term, the upstream PTA rebounded slightly, the price rose slightly, and the cost was good, In the short term, it will maintain a stable upward trend.

On May 27, the rubber and plastic index was 788 points, 2 points lower than yesterday, 25.66% lower than 1060 points (2012-03-14), the highest point in the cycle, and 49.24% higher than 528 points, the lowest point on April 6, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now

Business community pet analysts believe that: the downstream demand is limited, the upstream rebounded slightly, and the trend of weak stability will continue in the short term（ To learn more about the latest market trends, please pay attention to the official account of the business community, get information on goods, and grasp the price of commodities.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, on May 28, the current price of domestic PTA rose slightly. The average price of the spot market was 4670 yuan / ton, down 0.37% in a single day. The main force of PTA futures 2109 closed at 4696 yuan / ton, up 16 yuan / ton, or 0.34%.

Statistics of recent changes in domestic PTA plants

manufacturing enterprise Unit capacity (10000 tons / year) Device changes

Ningbo Yisheng sixty-five May 21, 2021 overhaul for one week

Yangzi Petrochemical sixty-five Unexpected shutdown on May 5, 2021, restart time to be determined

Livan polyester seventy Maintenance for one month on May 13, 2021

Dushan energy two hundred and twenty Overhaul on April 13, 2021 and discharge on May 18, 2021

Chuanneng chemistry one hundred It was overhauled on April 1, 2021 and started to restart on May 13

Fuhaichuang four hundred and fifty Load reduction from May 20, 2021 to the end of May

Sino Thai Petrochemical one hundred and twenty Parking in the evening of March 7, 2021 and discharging in the middle of May

Yizheng Chemical Fiber thirty-five About 10 days of maintenance on May 6, 2021

Hengli Dalian two hundred and fifty Maintenance is planned to start on June 1 for 2 weeks.

Yadong petrochemical seventy It is planned to be overhauled for 8 days on June 8, 2021

Yisheng new materials three hundred and thirty It is planned to test run from June to July 2021

PTA mainstream suppliers in June PTA listing price 4900 yuan / ton, at the same time announced the maintenance plan in June, and individual PTA device delayed restart, the current industry operating rate is stable at around 83%. It is also reported that the main PTA suppliers reduced their supply by 40% – 50% in June, which is good for the market mentality. Due to the reduction of supply by large factories, the market continues to go to the warehouse in the short term, and the spot circulation is still tight.

On May 27, the international oil price rose slightly. The settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was 66.85 US dollars / barrel, up 0.64 US dollars. Brent crude oil futures market settlement price of the main contract at 69.46 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 0.59 U.S. dollars. Downstream polyester filament factory sales promotion, Jiangsu and Zhejiang region part of the mainstream big factory down 100-300 yuan / ton, production and sales hot.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business news agency, believes that the PTA unit’s negative load reduction and maintenance expectations are superimposed on the strong shock of crude oil. However, due to the influence of traditional off-season in the downstream, the high production and marketing of polyester filament lacks sustainability, and the effect of boosting PTA market is limited. It is expected that in the short term, PTA market will be dominated by a narrow range.

According to the price monitoring of the business association, as of May 27, 2021, the average ex factory price of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China was 14420 yuan / ton, down 720 yuan / ton or 4.76% from the beginning of May; Compared with the beginning of April, the price decreased by 1440 yuan / ton, or 9.09%. In April, the market of viscose staple fiber was weak, the market atmosphere was light, and the factory inventory increased. Affected by the original cost of raw materials, the manufacturers actively supported the price, some factories implemented monthly settlement, and there were basically no new orders, so the inventory began to accumulate. Throughout April, although the manufacturers actively supported the prices, the prices continued to drop slightly. Most manufacturers said that they were in a state of no market at present. In May, under the pressure of inventory, some manufacturers reduced their prices one after another. After the festival, the prices fell all the way, the volume of transactions increased, and the inventory pressure slowed down. Throughout may, the viscose staple fiber market continued to be light, the downstream yarn was unsalable, the inventory of yarn mills was high, and the demand for viscose was limited.

According to the survey, the price of viscose staple fiber has nearly doubled from 8300 yuan per ton in August last year to 16000 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year. In particular, after the year, the price soared, from 12900 / T in early February to 15800 / T, an increase of 22.5%. However, since March, the price has gradually stabilized, and the manufacturer’s quotation is about 16000 yuan / ton. Since April, the market is weak, the transaction is light, and the price has continued to drop slightly. The 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber dropped by 9.09% from 15840 yuan / ton in early April to 15140 yuan / ton in late April, and then to 14420 yuan / ton on May 27.

It is reported that since the beginning of April, due to the shortage of raw material supply, the production line of a large high-end factory in the North has been arranged to be overhauled in turn, in which the output of Spunlaced non-woven fiber has been reduced by 35%, and that of textile fiber has been reduced by 20%. The market atmosphere of viscose staple fiber is light, the domestic demand is general, the export is not optimistic, the trade and investment of viscose filament is weakening, the factory inventory is increasing, the price is loose, the epidemic situation has a great impact on the export to India, and the market people are pessimistic about the future. After the May Day festival, viscose staple fiber continued to be weak, downstream yarn unsalable, yarn factory inventory high, demand for viscose is limited. The factory reduced the price to promote sales, and the volume of transactions was increased, and the inventory pressure was eased.

Cotton linter and wood pulp market in upstream

Since April, cotton staple supported by the cost, the price is firm and upward, and the trading volume is not much. The price is still high, but the market transaction performance is weak. At present, the price of Shandong Long velvet is 4700-4800 yuan / ton. In May, affected by the rise of raw materials, the price of cotton staple continued to rise, and the trading volume was less. The price of Shandong Long velvet was 5500-5600 yuan / ton.

According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency: after the May Day holiday, the spot price of wood pulp fell slightly, but then rebounded. On May 27, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong was 6700 yuan / ton, which was reduced by 600 yuan / ton compared with the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong at the beginning of the month (7312.5 yuan / ton on May 1). On May 7, the average market price of hardwood pulp in Shandong was 5200 yuan / ton, which was 50 yuan / ton lower than that in early may (5250 yuan / ton on May 1), a decrease of 0.95%.

Price trend of hardwood pulp and softwood pulp

Downstream cotton yarn Market

The sales of yarn factory were poor, the quantity and price of rayon yarn fell, and the inventory of factory continued to increase. According to the price monitoring of the business association, as of May 27, the average ex factory price of rayon yarn (30s, ring spinning) in Shandong was 18200 yuan / ton, which was about 1400 yuan / ton lower than that in early April, a decrease of 7.13%. In April, the market of renmian yarn failed to maintain the stability of March, the price continued to fall, the market was weak, the transaction was light, and some enterprises showed signs of making profits; Entering may, it continued the weak operation in April, the market demand was weak, the decline did not change, and the rayon yarn was weak. Down stream purchase intention of rayon cotton decreased, mainly to consume inventory. The market confidence is insufficient, the buyer purchase intention is not strong, the human cotton yarn continues to be weak finishing.

Finished product inventory of rayon yarn: in the first quarter of 2021, the final inventory days of rayon yarn reached 12.2 days, and the inventory still showed an increasing trend. At present, the inventory level has exceeded the level of the same period of last year.

Start up rate of rayon yarn industry: in the first quarter, the end start-up rate of rayon yarn was 85%. In the second quarter, there was the May Day holiday. Under the premise of weak market demand and high upstream viscose staple fiber cost, the start-up rate of rayon yarn industry or passive decline.

Rayon staple fiber orders held by rayon yarn decreased: Although rayon staple fiber orders held by rayon yarn are higher than the same period last year, they have gradually declined. According to this rhythm, it is expected that there will be a certain rigid demand for rayon staple fiber in the market around May Day.

Future forecast

In the first ten days of May, the viscose staple fiber factory carried out price reduction and sales promotion. The transaction volume was large, and the inventory pressure slowed down slightly. In the case of high raw material prices and low downstream demand, it is expected that the viscose staple fiber will be weak in the later period, and the price is easy to fall but difficult to rise. Downstream cotton yarn market is weak, viscose staple fiber no demand support, market pessimistic, viscose staple fiber trend will be weakened, bearish expectations unchanged.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the overall market price trend of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate in East China in May 2021 was relatively stable, both of which rose slightly in the first half of the month. As of May 26, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 87000 yuan / ton, which was 0.46% higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 86600 yuan / ton on May 1). On May 26, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 90800 yuan / ton, which was 0.89% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month (the average price of carbon in East China was 90000 yuan / ton on May 1). Until the 26th, the comprehensive price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was in the range of 80000-90000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive price of battery grade lithium carbonate was in the range of 8500-92000 yuan / ton.

By observing the market changes, the price of lithium carbonate showed a slight decline at the end of April, but after the May Day holiday, the price rose again. It can be seen that in recent years, the price of lithium carbonate has been in a state of range consolidation, and the fluctuation of the price is mostly caused by enterprises in order to increase shipment. It is understood that the market supply of lithium carbonate is relatively good in the first half of May, and there is still a shortage of supply of battery grade lithium carbonate.

In late May, the price of industrial grade lithium carbonate continued to maintain stability, while the price of battery grade lithium carbonate continued to rise, but the market as a whole was still in a relatively stable trend. Judging from the overall market sales in May, the market demand has improved compared with that in April, which makes the possibility of the price of lithium carbonate will be reduced. In addition, in the short term, due to the increase in the operating rate of domestic salt lakes, the output of lithium carbonate increased in the second quarter, and the price was slightly under pressure in the short term. Therefore, the price of lithium carbonate has stabilized this month.

Since May, the market price of downstream lithium hydroxide has been steadily rising, and it has been in a high and stable operation. At present, the spot supply in the market is still not loose, and the demand side performs well. In terms of LiFePO4, the finishing market of LiFePO4 was mainly stable in May, with stable price trend and slower rising trend. The main supply contract customers were the main ones, and the number of new customers was limited. The market was stable in the short term.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of business news agency, the current lithium carbonate price is basically in a stable state, and the price has been at a high level due to the improvement of production to ease market demand. However, under the influence of the new energy industry chain maintaining a high momentum, it is expected that under the catalysis of the new energy vehicle peak season in the third and fourth quarters, the price may be expected to rise again. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate in the short term may still maintain stability.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the price of pure benzene fell continuously this week. On May 16, the price of pure benzene was 8150-8300 yuan / ton (average price was 8230 yuan / ton), on Sunday (May 23), the price of pure benzene was 7700-8200 yuan / ton (average price was 8080 yuan / ton), and the average price fell 150 yuan / ton, or 1.82%, compared with last week; It was 133.53% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, crude oil, broad lower outside, bad news outside; The downstream styrene rises and falls, driving the center of gravity of pure benzene downward; The downstream procurement of local refining is general, the pressure of local refining shipment increases, and the price falls. This week, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene remained at 8200 yuan / ton, while the price of local refining was significantly lower than that of Sinopec’s listed price, and the market was waiting for its price guidance.

In terms of external market, the restart of maintenance equipment in Europe, the increase of pure benzene supply in Europe and the United States, and the price drop have driven the price of pure benzene in Asia to fall sharply, which is bad for the domestic market mentality. On Friday (May 21), the reference price of pure benzene in the South Korean market was 951 US dollars / ton, down 92.67 US dollars / ton or 8.88% from May 14; The import reference price of East China was US $995 / T, down 55 US dollars / T, or 5.24%, from May 14.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil rose first and then fell continuously during the week. In the early stage, driven by the optimistic prospect of demand recovery in Europe and the United States, international oil prices rose; However, we heard that the nuclear talks between the United States and Iran have made progress, and the market is worried about the supply of crude oil or the increase of bad oil price, so the oil price turns down. Compared with May 14, Brent fell by $2.15/barrel, or 3.11%; WTI fell $1.78 per barrel, or 2.72%.

Downstream: styrene: this week, styrene rose first and then fell. On May 23, the price of sample enterprises was 10433.33 yuan / ton, up 2.79% from last week, and 89.7% from the same period last year. The supply of domestic styrene has increased, but the spot terminal inventory is low and the spot supply is tight; The prices of the three major downstream industries were temporarily stable, the profits of the factories improved, and the demand for rigid demand increased.

Aniline: the price of aniline is weak this week. The aniline plant in the field is running normally, the downstream demand is generally followed up, and the inventory of the enterprise is accumulated. In addition, the week’s weak cost side, drag aniline market mentality. On May 21, the price of aniline in Shandong was 10700-11000 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 11100 yuan / ton. The average price was 4.08% lower than last week, 2.17% higher than the beginning of the month, 38.82% higher than the beginning of the year, and 141.91% higher than the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, recent nuclear discussions between the United States and Iran may be negative for oil prices. However, the global economy and demand are expected to improve as a whole, and crude oil still has upward momentum. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the epidemic situation, OPEC + production reduction plan, global economic data and US crude oil inventory data.

Downstream: the cost of styrene, the main downstream product, is well supported. In the short term, the terminal will continue to go to the warehouse and the inventory will remain low, so the volume of tradable trade will be small and the downstream demand will be temporarily stable. It is expected that the styrene market will still be in the stage of shock consolidation in the short term.

The restart of pure benzene plant in Europe eases the tight situation of pure benzene supply in Europe and the United States. It is expected that the price of pure benzene will continue to decline in the later period. However, the short-term tight situation of domestic supply still existed, and the arrival of pure benzene in Hong Kong decreased in the later period, limiting the decline. On the whole, pure benzene is likely to continue to decline next week. Pay attention to Sinopec’s price guidelines. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market (mainly styrene inventory, demand changes), domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, external market trends on the price of pure benzene.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the PP market fell in the third week of May, and the spot prices of various brands generally decreased. As of May 24, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8516.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.92% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 11.82% compared with the same period last year.

Cause analysis

PP upstream propylene domestic market trend fell in the near future. After the festival, the spot price continued to rise for several days to the high spot price range, and the crude oil chemical industry chain weakened in the early stage, which had a negative impact on the current propylene market and affected the confidence of the industry. Some of the previously overhauled units have resumed production, and the supply pressure on the site has rebounded. Fortunately, the social inventory position is not high, and the contradiction between supply and demand is not obvious. The current propylene market is lack of guidance, and it is expected that it will be stable and weak in the future.

Recent PP raw material propylene market fell, PP cost side support weakened. In the first half of the month, the domestic polypropylene market rose due to the favorable supply side brought by the centralized maintenance of production lines and environmental protection inspection in some provinces and cities. Last week, the average operating rate of the PP industry rebounded to nearly 90%, and the market was killed by the supply pressure. In addition, the recent production of the new production line involves a production capacity of about 1.4 million tons per year. Although most of the new production lines are in the test run stage of intermittent operation, the total production volume this year is relatively large, and the supply pressure on the site will gradually increase. The downstream demand is average, the resistance to high price goods is strong, and the trading momentum is insufficient. The negative effect is superimposed, and the drawing material surface is weakened obviously in the near future.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of May 24, the mainstream offer of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) was similar to that of wire drawing materials, with a price of about 8666.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.70% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a rise of 12.31% compared with the same period last year. Last week, the market trend of fiber materials was negative, similar to that of wire drawing materials. At present, the demand for fiber PP is not strong, and the direct downstream non-woven enterprises’ purchase order volume has shrunk, and the consumption of diapers and other products has also entered the off-season. In addition, the competition of spunbond non-woven industry is fierce, the profit in the fiber yard is not obvious, and the spot price has a certain downward trend.

Melt blown materials, melt blown PP market last week, small weak, spot prices remain at the level of 10000 yuan shocks. As of May 24, the average quotation of pph-y1500 sample enterprises monitored by the business community was about 10700 yuan / ton, and the price range of imported materials was about 12000 yuan / ton. At present, the domestic epidemic situation is generally stable, and the situation of saturated demand for medical protective equipment is relatively stable. In terms of overseas epidemic situation, recently, the epidemic situation of neighboring countries in the Asia Pacific region of China has gradually deepened, which may increase the epidemic prevention pressure of neighboring countries and regions in the later stage. In terms of market performance, it has obvious effect on related industries such as oxygen generator. In terms of meltblown materials, it has no obvious effect on mask market reaction. At present, the domestic melt blown fabric manufacturing market saturation is high, and it is expected that the melt blown PP market will continue to be stable.

Future forecast

Business community PP analysts believe: in the third week of May, the domestic polypropylene industry was bad and dominated the market. Propylene price at the cost side fell, while PP cost side support weakened. The demand for various types of polypropylene is not good, the downstream has strong resistance to high price supply, the preparation of goods tends to be rigid and needs careful operation, and the actual trading is weak. In addition to the current high-speed production pattern of PP market, the negative factor of increasing supply will be gradually released and expanded in the medium and long term. It is expected that the price of PP will fluctuate weakly in the near future

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the market of dichloromethane fell slightly this week (5.17-5.21). As of May 21, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong was about 4190 yuan / ton, down 1.72% compared with 4263 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

The overall operation rate of domestic methane chloride plant is stable this week, but the 100000 ton methane chloride plant of Jiangsu Fuqiang has been put into operation, and it is expected that the product will be produced later, and the supply will increase. According to the business news agency, this week, the Jinling Dongying unit was in full load operation, the Dongyue methane chloride unit started 50-60%, the Jinmao methane chloride unit stopped and the Luxi unit started 90%, the Jiangsu Liwen and Jiangxi Liwen units started at full load, and the Meilan Juhua unit started 70%.

This week, film, diluent, foaming agent and other downstream still have a certain rigid demand, also forming a certain support for dichloromethane, but the downstream resistance to high price dichloromethane increased.

The price of raw material liquid chlorine was at a low level, the price of methanol fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. According to the business news agency, as of May 21, the price of methanol was 2717 yuan / ton, slightly down from 2737 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; As of May 21, the main factory price of liquid chlorine for tank cars in Shandong Province was about 1150 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: business community methane chloride data analysts believe that although the demand has some support, on the one hand, the cost side support will be weakened, on the other hand, the supply will be improved in the short term, and the downstream sometimes conflicts with high price goods. On the whole, the price of dichloromethane will enter a downward adjustment stage in the later period.

Trade name: styrene butadiene rubber 1502

Latest price (May 19): 13150 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business news agency, the domestic price of styrene butadiene rubber was 13150 yuan / ton on the 19th, down 1.07% compared with the previous day. Since last week, the price of natural rubber has fallen sharply again, which is bad for the whole rubber market. According to the business news agency, as of May 19, the price of natural rubber was 12802 yuan / ton, down 8.82% from the price on May 10. On May 19, the ex factory price of PetroChina’s butylbenzene was reduced by 300-500 yuan / ton, and the business offer declined accordingly. As of May 19, the price of butylbenzene in Jilin Petrochemical Co., Ltd. of PetroChina’s Northeast sales branch was 13000 yuan / ton, and the Northeast warehouse raised the price.

Future forecast: Although the price of styrene is strong and the cost side has some support, the bad effect of natural rubber is strong; In addition, Yangzi, Fushun and other styrene butadiene rubber plants plan to restart, the pressure on the supply side increases, and it is expected that styrene butadiene rubber will continue to be weak in the later period.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, on May 18, the nickel price rose slightly, with the spot price of 135083.33 yuan / ton, up 2.74% from the previous day, 5.42% from the beginning of the year, and 34.93% from the same period last year. Shanghai nickel opened at 130800 yuan. After the opening, the price rose strongly to 134450 yuan, up 2.80%. LME3 closed at 18050 yuan, up 0.61%.

Crude oil rose to boost market sentiment, international metals rose overnight, and lunni continued to close 1.70% higher. Macroscopically, the US CPI in April exceeded expectations. Recently, the price of ferronickel has rebounded significantly. After the price of nickel sulfate rebounded, the economy of nickel beans has improved and the support for nickel price has increased. Stainless steel inventory turns down again, which is still good for the industrial chain in the short term. Refined nickel inventory is still at a historical low, which is conducive to price rebound. In the middle line, Qingshan’s high nickel matte will suppress the continuous upward trend of nickel price. Nickel price is expected to fluctuate in a wide range in the short term.

According to the monitoring of business agency, in the first half of May, the domestic adipic acid price continued to fall, continuing the trend of April. From May to now, the price is still in the downward channel, which is mainly due to the increase of adipic acid supply pressure, relatively weak demand, and the price losing support and gradually falling. According to the business agency, adipic acid in East China fell 5.12% from the beginning of May to 14th, and the current adipic acid price range is 11200-11500 yuan / ton.

From the market supply point of view, adipic acid kept a high level of commencement rate in May, the manufacturer had a large inventory pressure, and the price reduction was the main factor. With the market entering the off-season, the speed of goods taking decreased significantly. Dealers see that in early days, in February and March, when the market price was high, dealers hoarded a large number of goods. In April and may, the market fell, and inventory clearing was the main problem, further forcing enterprises to reduce prices and deliver goods.

Trend chart of pure benzene Market

In terms of cost, pure benzene and adipic acid have gone out of a different trend in May. Since April, the two have deviated. According to the monitoring of business society, the monthly increase of pure benzene was 11% by May 17, but the cost did not lead to the recovery of adipic acid price. On the one hand, the profits of adipic acid manufacturers are still in a reasonable range; More importantly, the main reason why adipic acid is difficult to get rid of the predicament is the low demand downstream.

PA66 market trend chart

In terms of downstream demand, from the downstream PA66 of adipic acid, PA66 has been in a slump since April, and the market has fallen. According to the monitoring of the business agency, PA66 market has not improved. As of March 17, PA66 fell 0.65% in the month. Polyurethane can explain the problem. Since March, the price has fallen by more than 35%, and the finished area of terminal real estate is not as expected, The demand in the field of thermal insulation materials is relatively weak, and the lack of downstream demand has a significant impact on adipic acid.

In the later stage, the business agency believes that the pressure on adipic acid supply is still strong, the market is still in the inventory period, and the price is easy to fall and difficult to rise. In addition, the price of adipic acid rose sharply in the first quarter, with a false high market and a callback demand. In the later period, the supply pressure of the market is difficult to alleviate in a short time, and the demand is still difficult to turn. Adipic acid is expected to continue to adjust, and the possibility of the interval moving down is not excluded.