This week, the domestic BDO market continued to decline. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, as of April 16, the average producer price of domestic BDO was 29375 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 5.62% and a year-on-year increase of 205.99%. In terms of market price, the mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in South China is 27300-28000 yuan / ton. The mainstream negotiation of bulk water in East China is 27300-28000 yuan / ton.

This week, after the financial and restart, the two sets of units, Tunhe, have been replaced and the catalyst has been restarted. The operation of other units is stable, and the market supply has increased. In addition, Xinjiang Tianye is expected to produce products in the latter ten days, and the supply side has no support for the time being. The downstream plant, Hangzhou Sanlong, is still under maintenance. Yizheng Chemical fiber, Fujian Meizhouwan and Zhejiang Meiyuan have carried out maintenance one after another this week. Xiaoxing chemical also has maintenance expectations. The burden of other downstream industries is slightly low, and there is no good support from the demand side.

In terms of units, Xinjiang Tianye’s 60000 T / a unit will restart and its capacity is expected to be released in late April; Shaanxi black cat’s 60000 T / a unit plans to replace the catalyst at the end of the month; great wall energy’s 200000 t / a unit plans to replace the catalyst this month; Henan Kaixiang’s 110000 T / a unit is expected to have minor inspection due to boiler problems.

Next week, the supply and demand side of the domestic BDO market is still lack of positive support. The air atmosphere on the floor is strong, and the downstream maintains contract procurement. BDO business analysts expect that the domestic BDO market is in a downturn in the short term.

The domestic methanol spot market has been rising slowly in recent years. According to the monitoring of the business society, as of April 14, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises in Shandong Province was 2370 yuan / ton, with the price falling 3.27% on a month basis, up 32.40% year on year. Some northwest production enterprises are in low inventory and the available goods source is really limited, and the price keeps rising. The production enterprises in inland areas keep up, but the price increases generally.

As of 4.14 summary of methanol market prices in various regions:

Region, price

Cash exchange of RMB 1920-1980 / ton plant in Qinghai

Cash exchange of 2090-2120 yuan / ton plant in Shanxi Province

RMB 2280-2330 / ton factory delivery in Liaoning

Tax bearing tank around 2620-2630 yuan / ton in Fujian

Factory reference: 2310-2360 yuan / ton factory cash exchange in Lianghu area

Acceptance of 2300-2340 yuan / ton plant in Anhui Province

Cash exchange of 2215-2240 yuan / ton plant in Henan Province

Downstream, formaldehyde market overall decline, enterprises generally ship. The market price of DME has stabilized, with some small increases, and the trading atmosphere is weaker than that in the early stage. MTBE market continued to rise, up 50-300 yuan / ton. The regional rise of domestic acetic acid market, the market supply continued to be tight, the manufacturer quoted low-end inflation mainly, the overall price maintained high-end strong.

In terms of external market, as of April 13, CFR China methanol closed at US $290.00-291.00/t; CFR Southeast Asia methanol 369.50-370.50 USD / ton. Methanol in the US Gulf closed at 120.00-121.00 cents / gallon; FOB Rotterdam closed at 320.00-321.00 euros / ton, down 4 euros / ton.

Region, country, closing price, rise and fall

Asia CFR China $290.00-291.00 / T US $0 / T

Asia CFR Southeast Asia 363.50-364.50 USD / T US $0 / T

US Gulf 120.00-121.00 cents / gallon 0 cents / gallon

European FOB Rotterdam 320.00-321.00 euro / T-4 euro / T

In the future market, except for the planned maintenance of scattered units such as Northwest energy, most of the devices are stable in operation, and with the planned restoration of some units such as Jiutai and Xinao, the supply in the mainland tends to increase. In addition, imports are expected to increase in April. The methanol analyst of business agency expects that the market of methanol in China will be sorted out in the short term.

1、 Formic acid price trend

(Figure: p-value curve of formic acid product)

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, as of April 13, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 2533.33 yuan / ton, down 7.32% compared with last Wednesday (April 7), down 3.80% compared with March 13, and down 4.4% compared with January 1. Recently, the market of formic acid is weak, the price of formic acid is affected by the weakness of raw materials, the market trading atmosphere is general, and the downstream purchasing demand is rigid.

On April 13, the price of upstream caustic soda in Shandong Province was weak, and now the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 390-490 yuan / ton. The company’s shipment is tepid, the downstream receiving situation is light and stable, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to fluctuate slightly in the future; for upstream liquid ammonia, on April 12, the reference price of liquid ammonia was 3910.00, which was 0.68% lower than that on April 1 (3936.67); for upstream sulfuric acid, on April 13, the sulfuric acid Market in Shandong Province was temporarily stable, and the upstream sulfur market was recently consolidated at a high level, with good cost support, but the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was general, the sulfuric acid supply was normal, and the future sulfuric acid ex factory price was small On April 12, the reference price of methanol was 2375.00, which was 0.11% lower than that on April 1 (2377.50).

3、 Future forecast

Business community formic acid analysts believe that the recent weak operation of raw material prices, lack of cost support, has a certain constraint on the market mentality, downstream on-demand procurement, the market is mainly wait-and-see, it is expected that in the short term, formic acid market may wait-and-see consolidation, more attention should be paid to the trend of raw material prices.

As of April 12, the average ex factory price of rayon yarn (30s, ring spinning) in Shandong Province was 19500 yuan / ton, down about 200 yuan / ton or 1.01% from the beginning of April. In April, the market of renmian yarn failed to maintain the stability of March, the price fell, the market was weak, the transaction was light, and some enterprises showed signs of making profits. However, the upstream viscose staple fiber is stable and weak, and the mainstream quotation is 15800 yuan / ton. Rayon cotton downstream purchasing willingness decline, weak demand, mainly to consume inventory.

Finished product inventory of rayon yarn: in the first quarter of 2021, the final inventory days of rayon yarn reached 12.2 days, and the inventory still showed an increasing trend. At present, the inventory level has exceeded the level of the same period of last year.

Start up rate of rayon yarn industry: in the first quarter, the end start-up rate of rayon yarn was 85%. In the second quarter, there was the May Day holiday. Under the premise of weak market demand and high upstream viscose staple fiber cost, the start-up rate of rayon yarn industry or passive decline.

Rayon staple fiber orders held by rayon yarn decreased: Although rayon staple fiber orders held by rayon yarn are higher than the same period last year, they have gradually declined. According to this rhythm, it is expected that there will be a certain rigid demand for rayon staple fiber in the market around May Day.

Upstream viscose staple fiber Market

From the historical data, the price of viscose staple fiber is at a high level. According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of April 9, 2021, the average ex factory price of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China is 15720 yuan / ton, which is 140 yuan / ton lower than that at the end of March. According to the survey, the price of viscose staple fiber has nearly doubled from 8300 yuan per ton in August last year to 16000 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year. In particular, after the year, the price soared, from 12900 / T in early February to 15800 / T, an increase of 22.5%. Since March, prices have gradually stabilized.

Business analysts believe that the new orders of rayon yarn are general, the inventory has increased, the cost of raw material viscose staple fiber is at a high level, the purchase of raw materials is mostly on demand, and the market of viscose and rayon yarn has entered a stalemate stage. It is expected that cotton yarn will be weak in the later period.

1、 Trend analysis

Copper prices rose slightly this week. By the end of the week, the spot copper price was 66733.33 yuan / ton, up 1.6% from 65680 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 15.15% from the beginning of the year, and up 62.72% from a year earlier. At the beginning of this week, LME started to run in shock after the high opening of copper in March, closing at US $8974, up 1.92% in the week; this week, Shanghai copper index recovered in shock, closing at RMB 66940, down 0.34% in the week. This week, the international copper index closed at 59340 yuan, down 0.52%.

Copper prices rose slightly this week on the news that Chile, a major copper producer, blocked its border. The news of border blockade is expected to have little impact on the balance of copper supply and demand. The news of border blockade will mainly have an impact on global copper supply, but it is mainly speculation on the expected level. Different from the reduction of production and production caused by the epidemic that has been hyped since last year, the blockade in Chile is limited to personnel circulation, and the impact of mining industry is relatively limited. It is estimated that the impact will not last for long.

The increase of copper inventory is the main reason to limit the upward trend of copper price. As it is still in the digestion stage of copper price, the increase of inventory will also limit the upward space of copper price to a certain extent. According to the data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME), since March, the copper inventory of the exchange has continued to rise from the low level of more than 70000 tons. As of Friday, the inventory rose to 163100 tons, a new three-and-a-half-month high. The cumulative increase of the inventory in March exceeded 90%. Copper prices are expected to remain high in the short term, mainly volatile trend.

1、 Trend analysis

According to nickel price monitoring of business association, nickel price fell slightly on the 7th, with spot nickel price of 126416.67 yuan / ton, up 1.37% from 126716.67 yuan / ton on the previous trading day, down 0.24% from the beginning of the year, and up 34.06% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Since April, the price of nickel has fluctuated and risen. The US non-agricultural data showed strong performance, and the domestic transaction prospect was optimistic. The Philippines has resumed mining in the near future, but the domestic ports continue to go to the warehouse. Due to the significant callback of nickel in the early stage, the spot market has warmed up, the precursor enterprises have made huge profits in purchasing nickel beans to prepare nickel sulfate, and the consumption of stainless steel terminal and new energy terminal has entered the peak season. It is expected that the short-term fluctuation of nickel price is relatively strong.

In March, the dichloromethane market sought a balance point, and the price fluctuated mainly. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of dichloromethane was 3636 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, then rose to 3930 yuan / ton on March 18, then fell to 3590 yuan / ton on March 24, and rose slightly to 3743 yuan / ton at the end of the month. Overall, the end of the month rose by 2.93% over the beginning of the month.

First of all, affected by the enterprise burden reduction and low inventory, the spot supply of dichloromethane in Shandong was tight in March. According to the business news agency, Jinling Dongying methane chloride plant was shut down in mid March, Jinmao methane chloride plant was shut down, Dongyue’s start-up load was not high, and about 90% of Luxi’s start-up was in short supply. In the first half of the month, the factory price of dichloromethane increased frequently.

Secondly, in the first ten days of the month, the downstream refrigerant manufacturers increased their stock, the dichloromethane shipment was smooth, and the price went up all the way. In the middle of the month, with the high price of methane chloride, the downstream resisted the high price of dichloromethane, the transaction was weak, and the ex factory price of methane chloride manufacturers decreased moderately.

Thirdly, the price of raw materials is high and the cost is relatively strong. In March, the price of liquid chlorine rose sharply, while the price of methanol remained high, with strong cost support. According to the business news agency, the mainstream ex factory price of liquid chlorine for tank cars in Shandong Province increased from 1600 yuan / ton at the beginning of March to 2100 yuan / ton at the end of March; the price of methanol increased from 2295 yuan / ton at the beginning of March to 2377 yuan / ton at the end of March, with a slight increase of 3.59%.

Business community methane chloride data analysts believe that, at present, the domestic dichloromethane market is seeking a new balance point. On the one hand, the downstream has a conflict with the high price in the early stage. On the other hand, the cost side and demand side have different degrees of support for dichloromethane. On the whole, the market price in the later stage will continue to rise until a balance is formed.

After a sharp rise in February, the domestic aggregate MDI market went down all the way in March. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the domestic aggregate MDI market price was 27100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 22152 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 18.36% in the month and a year-on-year increase of 88.30%.

As of April 2, domestic aggregate MDI market summary:

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

South China: 19300-19800 yuan / ton 19300-19800 yuan / ton

In East China, the price is about 19800 yuan / ton, 19300-19500 yuan / ton

About 19 800 yuan / ton in North China and 19300-19 500 yuan / ton in North China

The main reason for the sharp decline of the market in March is the lack of demand and motivation. In March, mainstream manufacturers held a stable price for plug-in, and there was little information on the supply side of the whole month, which was of little significance to the market. In terms of traders, they still maintained a high level at the beginning of the month. However, there was strong resistance in the lower reaches, and there were few high-level transactions. Traders gradually change their mindset, turn to low price volume, let the price shipping, for a time, the price market is slightly chaotic. Towards the end of the month, most of the mainstream manufacturers lowered the price of plug-in, and the domestic aggregate MDI market fell into a downturn as a whole.

In terms of enterprises, the one-off price of aggregate MDI in Wanhua chemical distribution market from April 1 to 10 is 24500 yuan / ton; the listing price of direct supply in April is 25500 yuan / ton, which is 2500 yuan / ton lower than that in March, and the settlement price in March is 24300 yuan / ton (barreled acceptance). In April 2021, Shanghai Huntsman aggregate MDI listed 28000 yuan / ton in the distribution market, which was stable compared with March. The settlement price in March is 25000 yuan / ton (acceptance). The listing price of aggregate MDI in BASF distribution market in April 2021 was 26000 yuan / ton, which was 3000 yuan / ton lower than that in March. The settlement price in March is 24000 yuan / ton.

In the future, at present, many units of domestic polymerization MDI production enterprises are operating normally, individual operating rate is low, and the overall social inventory is on the high side. At the end of February, we heard the good news, and the export will be greatly opened, but there is no news in March. In the short term, business community aggregation MDI analysts expect that the domestic aggregation MDI market is mainly in the doldrums.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price fluctuated slowly in the first half of this month, fell sharply in the second half of this month, and recovered slightly at the end of this month. At the beginning of the month, the price was 8544 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, it was 7939 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 7.07%; on March 16 and 17, the monthly high price was 8578 yuan / ton, and on March 26, 27 and 28, the monthly low price was 7852 yuan / ton, with a monthly amplitude of 8.46%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business society, affected by the upstream and downstream, the propylene price rose again and again in the second half of February, which was at a high level for many years. It was generally stable at the end of the month and the beginning of the month. The price began to decline on the 4th, and generally rebounded on the 8th. The price rose 150-250 yuan / ton in two days, and then generally stabilized. The price rose about 50 yuan / ton again on the 12th, and continued to rise 50 yuan / ton on the 15th, starting from the 16th Since the 18th, the price has entered the downward channel again, with a daily drop of 100-150 yuan / ton. Since the 25th, the price has remained stable, with slight changes in some enterprises. Half of the 30 day price rose by 50 yuan / ton, and continued to rise on the 31st. At present, the market transaction is still between 7880-8400 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7900 yuan / ton. U.S. propylene 18, 19, the external market dropped sharply, also has a certain impact on the domestic market. Propylene market is now no pressure inventory, part of the device is still in repair.

Recently, the international crude oil market has witnessed constant events and the price fluctuates. It is said that the cargo ship trapped in the Suez Canal has extricated itself, but the impact of the global supply chain is not over, and the time limit for OPEC + to reduce production may be lengthened, which will benefit the international crude oil market and affect the propylene market. On the 30th, the price rose slightly, which has an impact on the price of propylene.

PP fluctuated slowly in the first half of this month, declined to a certain extent in the middle of the month, and remained stable in the second half of the month, with a monthly decline of 4.23% and a monthly amplitude of 5.57%. The PP futures market was also slightly cold, which had a small negative impact on propylene.

Acrylic acid rose in the first ten days of this month and then stabilized. At the end of this month, it dropped by nearly 12%, with a monthly decline of 6.51% and a monthly amplitude of 12.22%, which had a significant negative impact on propylene.

This month, the market of propylene oxide is similar to that of acrylic acid. In the first half of the month, it rose continuously and then stabilized. At the end of the month, it dropped by more than 5%, with a monthly increase of 0.53% and a monthly amplitude of 6.73%, which has a negative impact on propylene.

This month epichlorohydrin market volatility on the main, there is a wave of rapid decline in late recovery trend, monthly increase of 6.78%, has a certain pull up effect on propylene.

The domestic n-butanol price fell sharply this month, with a monthly drop of 23.13% and a monthly amplitude of 23.97%, which had a negative impact on the propylene market.

This month, the trend of ISO octanol is the same as that of n-butanol, which is also a sharp decline, with a monthly decline of 22.15% and a monthly amplitude of 22.47%. It also has a more obvious negative impact on propylene.

Isopropanol fell in the middle of this month, and rose slightly at the end of this month, with a monthly decline of 6.19% and a monthly amplitude of 7.56%, which had little negative impact on propylene.

The phenol Market in East China declined slightly after rising this month, with a monthly decline of 1.16% and a monthly amplitude of 3.62%. The impact on propylene is limited.

The acetone market in East China remained stable in the first half of this month, stabilized in the middle of the month, and recovered at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of 3.87% and a monthly amplitude of 5.52%.

3、 Future forecast

The propylene analyst of business society chemical branch thinks: Overall, the international production has recovered slightly, the domestic inventory is not much, some units are overhauled, the crude oil market is favorable, and the downstream operating rate is acceptable, but the market is mainly cold, and the polypropylene market is general. It is expected that the market may be stable for a short time with the crude oil market in the future.

1、 Domestic sodium pyrosulfite price trend chart

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite rose sharply in March. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite was 1666.67 yuan / ton on March 1 and 1783.33 yuan / ton on March 31, up 7% in the month.

2、 Market analysis

After the Spring Festival, the domestic soda and sulfur prices continued to rise, and the upstream raw material cost of sodium pyrosulfite increased significantly. Supported by the cost, the manufacturers increased the ex factory price of sodium pyrosulfite in early March, which led to the overall recovery of the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite.

In March, the overall domestic soda price rose slightly by 1.72%, and the sulfur price rose sharply by 12.57%. The cost of raw materials continues to rise, which will further support the future market price of sodium pyrosulfite.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from business news agency believe that with the support of raw material cost, the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite is still expected to rise in April.