According to the data of the business club’s block list, this week’s TDI market price was weak. The average price of East China was 17250.00 yuan / ton, down 1.43% compared with 17500 yuan / ton last weekend, up 57.77% year on year.

This week, the domestic TDI market was weak. At the beginning of the week, the market was mainly cautious and wait-and-see, waiting for the latest price guidance of the factory. There were few offers. After the factory’s guidance price was announced in the later stage, the market mentality was empty, the offer was mostly stable, and the downstream inquiry and purchase were weak. As of the 28th, the TDI domestic offer in East China market was 15500-15700 yuan / ton, and the Shanghai offer was 16500-17000 yuan / ton.

The price of toluene decreased slightly. Affected by the sharp rise and fall of crude oil, the price range of toluene spot market fluctuated mainly during the week. As of the 28th, the domestic average price was 5515 yuan / ton, down 1.30% in the week. The spot supply of toluene market was sufficient, but the downstream follow-up was general, and the demand side remained weak.

According to TDI data analyst of business society, the domestic TDI market is weak, the atmosphere in the market is mainly wait-and-see, the downstream inquiry enthusiasm is not high, the terminal’s overall willingness to receive goods is weak, and the demand is insufficient. It is expected that the TDI market will be frozen in the future, and pay attention to the change of supplier information.

1、 Price trend

According to the business news agency, the price of steam coal rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average port price of thermal coal was maintained at 657.75 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the average port price of thermal coal was maintained at 700.75 yuan / ton, up 6.54%, 29.05% year-on-year. On March 25, the steam coal commodity index was 82.62, up 1.11 points from yesterday, down 33.90% from the cycle’s highest point of 125.00 points (2021-01-19), and up 84.83% from the lowest point of 44.70 points on January 20, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of origin, the overall performance is good. The mining areas in Shaanxi maintain a low inventory state, and the number of coal mines in Inner Mongolia stop production for maintenance due to coal management ticket increases, while the supply decreases. At the end of the month, the number of coal mines shut down for maintenance increased, and the overall mine inventory was small.

Downstream power plants: the overall turnover is heating up. In the downstream, the daily consumption of power plants in coastal areas has picked up recently, and the inventory has maintained a slow decline. As of March 23, the six major coastal power companies had a total inventory of 14.608 million tons, daily consumption of 695000 tons and 21 days of availability. Traders mainly supported the price, and the daily consumption of power plants increased, which stimulated the demand for supplementary storage of steam coal, and the price of steam coal rose.

Macro: according to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics on March 24, the national coal prices rose and fell in mid March. The specific price changes of all kinds of coal are as follows: anthracite (washing block, volatile matter ≤ 8%) price is 950 yuan / ton, the same as the previous period. The price of ordinary blended coal (the blended coal of Shanxi fine coal and lump coal, with a calorific value of 4500 kcal) was 485.4 yuan / ton, up 18.8 yuan / ton or 4% over the previous period. The price of Shanxi Dabiao (better quality blended coal with calorific value of 5000 kcal) was 555 yuan / ton, up 24.7 yuan / ton or 4.7% over the previous period. The price of Shanxi Youhun (high-quality blended coal, calorific value 5500 kcal) was 635 yuan / ton, up 31.6 yuan / ton or 5.2% over the previous period. The price of Datong blended coal (produced in Datong, with calorific value of 5800 kcal) was 660 yuan / ton, up 26.6 yuan / ton or 4.2% over the previous period. The price of coking coal (main coking coal, sulfur content < 1%) was 1482.9 yuan / ton, down 57.1 yuan / ton or 3.7% compared with the previous period. According to the above data, the anthracite price remained stable in mid March, the price increase of steam coal further expanded, and coking coal fell again.

Business analysts believe that: at this stage, the daily consumption of power plants is rising, driving the demand of power plants for steam coal replenishment. And the origin of good sales, steam coal prices or good support, prices. Overall, the price of steam coal may maintain a slight upward trend during the Spring Festival, and the demand of downstream market will be taken into consideration.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of March 25, the comprehensive price of PC market was 24300.00 yuan / ton, which was 2.24% higher than that on March 24. The price of PC market was running at a high level. Recently, the news of maintenance came out from PC enterprises. It is estimated that the maintenance plan for one month has been determined. In the short term, the PC market will continue to rise, and the focus of discussion will be high.

The PC raw material market continues to rise, and the price remains high. Under the pressure of cost, PC is rising passively. At present, many PC enterprises have determined the plan of parking and maintenance. The maintenance time of kesichuang is determined between April and may, and the production capacity is about 500000 tons / year. Shanghai Mitsubishi expects to start the maintenance in May, and the production capacity is about 100000 tons / year. Wanhua chemical’s maintenance time is August, and the production capacity is about 210000 tons / year, The overhaul time of Sinopec Mitsubishi is from the first ten days of April to the first ten days of May, with a production capacity of 60000 tons per year per month. Luxi Chemical and Lihua yiweiyuan have not yet determined the overhaul time. In the next few months, the collective overhaul of PC enterprises will face the situation of shutdown and production reduction, and the price trend of domestic PC market is easy to rise but difficult to fall.

The upstream bisphenol A has also been overhauled, and some of them have been shut down for about 45 days. On Wednesday, the market price of bisphenol A was very high, with a price reference of 25600-25700 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory is obviously low, and the supply side tension is difficult to ease. In the short term, the market price maintains a high level. The following is a comparison chart of the price trend of bisphenol A and PC.

PC analysts of business news agency think: as enterprises start maintenance plans one after another and upstream prices remain high, PC is expected to rise slowly in the short term, with cautious wait-and-see and cautious transaction atmosphere. (to get more information about goods and to grasp the price of goods, welcome to subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community).

Trade name: calcium carbide

Latest price (March 24): 4916.67 yuan / ton

On March 24, the ex factory quotation of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell by 133.33 yuan / ton, or 2.64%, compared with the quotation on March 22. The price of raw material orchid charcoal was low and the cost of calcium carbide was generally supported. Downstream PVC market recently fell slightly, downstream customers on calcium carbide procurement enthusiasm in general. Calcium carbide fell slightly in the future.

In the near future, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly: the quotation of the manufacturer is about 4900 yuan / ton.

1、 Nitric acid market price trend chart

Nitric acid price curve

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of concentrated nitric acid in domestic areas was 2050 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, and the quotation was temporarily stable.

2、 Market analysis

On March 15, Anhui Jinhe quoted 1850 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton compared with last time; Anhui Aodeli quoted 1800 yuan / ton, flat compared with last time; Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 2200 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, 960 yuan / ton of dilute nitric acid, 250 yuan / ton higher than last week; Shandong helitai quoted 2100 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, flat compared with last time. Nitric acid market is generally good, on the other hand, the raw materials boost, and the enterprises are mixed.

Upstream liquid ammonia, this week (3.15-19) liquid ammonia market rose sharply, according to business community monitoring, liquid ammonia weekly decline of 4.59%. As of March 19, the monthly growth rate was 6.15%. The mainstream price in Shandong is 3400-3500 yuan / ton; the price of aniline in the lower reaches continues to rise this week and reaches a new high. On March 12, the price of aniline was 12300-12500 yuan / ton in Shandong and 12300-12500 yuan / ton in Nanjing. On March 21, the price of aniline was 14000-15500 yuan / ton in Shandong and 13500 yuan / ton in Nanjing, with an average price increase of 15.9% over last week, 81.43% over the beginning of the year and 139.55% over the same period of last year.

3、 Future forecast

Affected by raw materials, nitric acid analysts of business news agency expect that the price of nitric acid may rise.

This week (3.15-3.19) the price of NBR went up. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of March 19, the price of NBR was 22950 yuan / ton, up 0.88% from 22750 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

The ex factory price of domestic Lan Hua NBR is increased by 500 yuan / ton again. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of March 19, Lanzhou Petrochemical n41e reported 19400 yuan / ton; 3305e reported 20700 yuan / ton; 3308e reported 21100 yuan / ton. Manufacturers started stable, low inventory, NBR prices continue to high. At present, the market offers are around 19800 yuan / ton for Lanhua n41, 23500 yuan / ton for South Korea lg6250, 19700-20000 yuan / ton for Russia 3365 and 24000-24500 yuan / ton for Nandi 1052.

The overall price of raw materials is stable, and the cost side has little influence. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of March 19, the price of butadiene was 8441 yuan / ton, down slightly by 0.07% compared with 8446 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Future forecast: NBR analysts of business community believe that the overall pressure on the supply side of NBR is not big, but the international crude oil fell sharply on the 18th, and there is a downward risk on the cost side. In the short term, NBR offer may have a narrow callback.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic LNG on March 16 was 3383.33 yuan / ton, up 0.99% from the previous day, 19.27% from the beginning of the month, 12.78% from the month on month, and 5.95% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In the first half of March, the price of domestic liquefied natural gas rose as a whole. In the first few days of the month, the price fell, and then rebounded, opening a rising channel. As of the 16th, the price of domestic liquefied natural gas rose by about 20%. The upward trend of liquid price in the first half of the month was mainly due to the successive days of price reduction in the early stage and the improvement of traffic conditions, the gradual smooth delivery of liquid plants, the incremental demand of downstream industrial users, the gradual increase of vehicle demand, the extension of heating period, the superposition of many favorable factors such as the maintenance of liquid plants, which helped the liquid price to actively push up and the price to rise. At present, there is a good trading atmosphere in the market. Since the 9th, the price of raw gas has been reduced to 1.48 yuan / m3, the support of cost side has weakened, and the liquid price has stabilized after rising. Wait and see the market, the manufacturers have a strong desire to support the market, and the market rises and falls differently. Most of them adjust the quotation slightly according to their own shipping situation. In this week, with the dual control policy of energy consumption in Inner Mongolia, some liquid plants entered into the state of maintenance, the supply reduced, the market sentiment gradually intensified, and the price rose steadily.

In the first half of March, the price of liquid rose steadily. On the 16th, the market rose more and fell less. Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Hebei and other places still actively adjusted their prices. The price of liquid rose and fell in some areas. Inner Mongolia was 3330-3500 yuan / ton, Shaanxi was 3380-3530 yuan / ton, Shanxi was 3280-3520 yuan / ton, Ningxia was 3350-3450 yuan / ton, Henan was 3520-3650 yuan / ton, Hebei was 3200-3650 yuan / ton raise.

Regional specifications: March 16 March 1

Inner Mongolia LNG 3330-3500 2650-2950 380-550

Shaanxi ﹣ LNG ﹣ 3380-3530 ﹣ 2690-2900 ﹣ 480-630

Shanxi LNG 3280-3520 2800-3020 260-500

Ningxia ﹣ liquefied natural gas ﹣ 3350-3450 ﹣ 2900-3000 ﹣ 350-450

Henan LNG 3520-3650 3050-3150 370-500

Hebei ﹣ LNG ﹣ 3200-3650 ﹣ 3050-3300 ﹣ up 150-300

The price of liquefied natural gas rose, driving the downstream products to rise more and fall less

On March 16, the reference price of methanol was 2425.00, up 5.66% compared with March 1 (2295.00). On March 16, the ex factory quotation of methanol enterprises in Shandong Province was lowered, and the mainstream negotiation price of methanol market in southern Shandong Province dropped by 10 yuan / ton to 2280-2300 yuan / ton. Linyi received the local goods to negotiate the price to 2250-2260 yuan / ton and sent them to cash. The logistics goods offer price is limited. Shandong methanol Lubei market reference price 2130 yuan / ton to spot. In the short term, the domestic methanol market is mainly sorted out.

For urea, the ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong Province fell on March 15, which was 30 yuan / ton lower than that on March 12, with a decrease of 1.43%. The recent high level consolidation of upstream liquid ammonia shows good cost support. On the demand side: most of the agricultural needs are used as soon as they are purchased, the willingness of terminal purchasing is general, and the agricultural purchasing in mainstream areas is cautious; the start-up load of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber sheet plants is acceptable, and the follow-up of small orders on bargain hunting, most of them follow the market. Supply side: at present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 72.5%, and the daily output is about 160000 tons. Some of the fresh water storage sources have been expanded, and the start-up load of urea enterprises has been increased. Based on many factors such as the rising demand of local industries and the expectation of printing standards, some manufacturers are still willing to support the price. It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly and rise mainly: the average price quoted by manufacturers is about 2100 yuan / ton.

Dichloromethane, March 16, Shandong methane chloride market higher. On March 16, the reference price of dichloromethane was 3916.67, which was 7.7% higher than that on March 1 (3636.67). The price of methane chloride in Shandong’s methane chloride market was higher. The main factory price of dichloromethane was about 3820-4010 yuan / ton, and the main factory price of trichloromethane was about 4100-4380 yuan / ton. At present, the supply of dichloromethane in Shandong is tight, and there is no pressure on the inventory of enterprises. The downstream market starts to recover slowly. It is expected that dichloromethane will continue to rise steadily in the later period.

Liquefied natural gas led the rise of energy sector. According to the price monitoring of business news agency, on March 16, 2021, there were four kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall, and the top three commodities were liquefied natural gas (0.99%), MTBE (0.87%) and dimethyl ether (0.31%). There were 8 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, with petroleum coke (- 1.01%), diesel (- 0.99%) and coke (- 0.88%) as the top three products. The average daily rise and fall was – 0.12%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of LNG from business news agency believe that: at present, the terminal gas consumption is increasing, the LNG market is improving, the price is rising continuously, and the liquid plant maintenance, the inventory is not high, the heating period is extended and other favorable factors are supporting. Under the situation that the contradiction between supply and demand is not prominent, it is expected that the market will continue to rise steadily in the short term.

The international crude oil market rose to US $70 / barrel, and continued to lack action. At present, the asphalt market is in the off-season with weak supply and demand. According to the price monitoring data of the business association, the price of asphalt was 3223 yuan / ton on March 16, and the price of asphalt has been stable in the near future.

From the demand side, March is still the off-season of domestic asphalt market demand, coupled with the callback after the international crude oil price rose to a high level, the wait-and-see mood of asphalt Market reappeared. In addition, the current terminal projects start less, and the rigid demand of asphalt is limited, so the current asphalt Market is still in a weak demand state. On the supply side, before the Spring Festival, all refineries shut down their asphalt plants for maintenance, and the operating rate of asphalt plants remained at a low level; so far, the operating rate of asphalt plants has not rebounded significantly, and the operating rate of asphalt plants in Shandong is at a low level of about 30%. According to the data, China’s asphalt production continued to decline to 2.1168 million tons in February, down 443 million tons on a month on month basis. At present, the domestic asphalt market is weak in both supply and demand. The market price closely follows the international crude oil price change, and the recent asphalt price has been stable.

Previously, we predicted that OPEC would reach an agreement on increasing production, but things went against our wishes. The OPEC meeting postponed increasing production. In addition, the unexpected attack on Saudi oil facilities and the US $1.9 trillion stimulus will push the international crude oil price to a high of $70 / barrel. Lu Xingjun, an analyst at the business club, believes that: the international oil price is soaring rapidly. Recently, the international oil price is aiming to stabilize US $70 / barrel, so the possibility of continuing to rise is relatively small; from the K-bar chart of business club commodity week, the upward momentum of international oil price is weakened. Therefore, it is expected that the international crude oil price will remain at a high level, and the domestic asphalt price will be only slightly boosted. It is expected that the domestic asphalt price will rise steadily in the short term.

It is reported that the official microblog of Sinopec Maoming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. reported on the 15th that at about 11:50 on March 15, the alkali washing tower in the front section of the cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant of Maoming Petrochemical Division caught fire suddenly. Maoming Petrochemical and Maoming City quickly started the emergency plan and set up the on-site emergency rescue headquarters. Maoming Petrochemical emergency rescue center and Maoming fire rescue detachment rushed to the site for the first time On site disposal.

The report said that at about 12:50, the open fire had been put out. At present, the scene continues to monitor and clean up. All the sewage generated by the incident is introduced into the emergency pool, causing no air pollution to the water body, and other devices are in normal production.

At present, the cause of the accident is under investigation, and the follow-up situation will be reported in time.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of March 15, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in China was around 12960.00 yuan / ton. According to the market fundamentals, after a sharp rise after the festival, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was originally in a high and narrow range of vibration stage, but the unexpected shutdown of the Maoming Petrochemical plant may push the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber up again.

According to the business news agency, Maoming Petrochemical has a cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant with an annual capacity of 100000 tons. The brand of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is BR9000, and the monthly full load production capacity is about 8500 tons. Before the accident, the cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant of Maoming Petrochemical was in full load operation.

Unit capacity and start up

Yantai Haopu: 60000t / a normal operation

Shandong Wanda: 50000 T / a normal operation

Qixiang Tengda: 50000 tons / year

Qilu Petrochemical Co., Ltd. ’70000t / a’ normal operation

Sichuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. < 150000t / a > normal operation

Maoming Petrochemical Company ﹣ 100000 t / a ﹣ accidental shutdown

Yanshan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is in normal operation with a capacity of 150000 T / A and is scheduled to be overhauled by the end of March

Yangzi Petrochemical Co., Ltd. $100000 / year

Huayu Rubber Co., Ltd. < 80000 tons / year

Tairubber Yubu: 72000 / year, normal operation

Dushanzi Petrochemical Co., Ltd. < 30000 / year, normal operation

Xinjiang Lande normal operation

Daqing Petrochemical Co., Ltd. ~ 160000 / year

Liaoning Shengyou: 30000 / year

Jinzhou Petrochemical Co., Ltd. < 30000 / year, normal operation

Shandong Chinachem will stop at 100000 yuan / year and plan to restart in June

Zhejiang ChuanHua is in normal operation with annual output of 100 000 yuan, and it is planned to be overhauled in May

Where will cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber go in the future? Business analysts believe that the parking of Maoming Petrochemical’s cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will definitely boost the cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market in the short term. After the news came out, some traders said that they were bullish on the future market, and individual traders’ offer had been raised by 200-300 yuan / ton. However, the medium and long-term trend still needs to further look at the status of the device. It is reported that Maoming Petrochemical originally planned to start 40-50 days of shutdown maintenance in late March, but the shutdown of the plant is only ahead of the original plan. If the plant can be successfully repaired and restarted in the later stage, the price rise of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will be limited. If the damaged device is not easy to repair, combined with the maintenance plan of other manufacturers, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is expected to be in a strong upward channel in the first half of the year.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of business news agency, the mainstream price of styrene in China fell steadily this week. On Monday (March 8), the price of sample enterprises was 9616.67 yuan / ton, while on Friday (March 12), the price of sample enterprises was 9150.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.85%. The price is 44.85% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market price of styrene decreased. On March 8, Shandong styrene closed around 9700 yuan / ton, and on March 12, 9200 yuan / ton, down about 500 yuan / ton. On March 8, South China styrene closed at 9800 yuan / ton, and on March 12, 9600 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, international oil prices stopped rising and falling at the beginning of the week and rebounded on Thursday. Pure benzene fluctuated with the price trend of styrene, rising first and then falling. However, ethylene rose slightly and then decreased slowly. Overall, the cost support of styrene has continued.

As of Friday (March 12), the mainstream price of ethylene was 1197.00 yuan / ton, down 0.13% from 1198.50 yuan / ton on Monday (March 8). This week, the fundamentals of the ethylene market did not fluctuate much, the market transactions were less, the offer price of ethylene remained stable, the cracking units in the United States gradually recovered, and the ethylene supply was expected to increase. In addition, the price of downstream products such as styrene and ethylene glycol is weakening, and the demand for raw materials is weakening. Therefore, in the supply and demand segment, the price of ethylene will continue to rise weakly, and it is expected that the price will maintain stable operation in the short term.

As of Friday (March 12), the mainstream price of pure benzene was 6670.00 yuan / ton, down 0.30% from 6690.00 yuan / ton on Monday (March 8). At the beginning of the week, driven by the rise of crude oil, the market price of pure benzene in Shandong went up. Some of the downstream products were purchased, and the inventory of local refining enterprises was released. On the 10th, the downstream units of pure benzene in Shandong were shut down for maintenance, and the demand decreased. As a result, the inventory of pure benzene enterprises in Shandong gradually accumulated, and the price fell.

In terms of inventory, the total inventory of East China port this week was 185900 tons, down 4.22% from 194500 tons last week. The terminal began to have shipping exports, and the inventory decline in the later period is expected to be large. Domestic styrene factory inventory rose this week. Although the operating rate of domestic styrene decreased slightly, the average operating rate last week was 80.98%, and the average operating rate this week was 78.2%, down 2.78%. Due to the pressure of cost and shipment, the total operating rate of domestic styrene manufacturers decreased. But on the whole, the enterprise inventory and social inventory are still in the middle and low level, and continue to be low in the short term, which supports the price of styrene.

On the downstream side, the overall price of styrene in the lower reaches followed the trend of styrene this week, rising first and then restraining, the profit space of production and marketing was reduced, and some of the lower reaches accumulated. In the PS market, as of Friday (March 12), the mainstream ex factory quotation of East China PS was 10866.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of Monday (March 8). The average operating rate of domestic PS this week was 76.31%, which was slightly lower than that of last week’s 78.56%. PS inventory continues to increase, supply pressure still exists, and the price difference between PS raw material and recycled material in northern China is too large, which still affects the replacement demand of PS raw material for recycled material.

In the EPS market, as of Friday (March 12), the mainstream ex factory quotation of EPS in East China was 11050.00 yuan / ton, down 0.23% from 11075.00 yuan / ton on Monday (March 8). This week, the EPS market trend rose first and then declined. At the beginning of the week, driven by the strong crude oil, the price of styrene rose, and EPS followed the rise. In the middle of the week, the cost of EPS fell, and the ex factory price of EPS fell sharply. Before the Festival, the transaction of low price source was acceptable, the conflict of high price source was obvious, the recovery of terminal operation was not ideal, the merchants took delivery of goods slowly, and the inventory pressure of some EPS factories was obvious The deal atmosphere is not good.

In the ABS market, as of Friday (March 12), the mainstream ex factory quotation of ABS in Zhejiang Province was 18050.00 yuan / ton, down 500 yuan / ton or 2.7% from 18550.00 yuan / ton on Monday (March 8). The terminal is resistant to the high price of goods, and the overall transaction is not good, while some traders are steady and down. Spot supply is warming up, demand is in a relatively off-season, there is no seasonal demand blessing, downstream factories maintain just need to purchase.

3、 Future prospects

The price of ethylene and pure benzene at the raw material end is weak, and the cost of styrene is acceptable. The supply side of styrene is generally in good condition. The port’s export source has been loaded. The expected decline of inventory in the later period, together with the increase of domestic equipment maintenance, support the price of styrene. But the downstream demand is weak, production and sales are still not prosperous, and the mainstream downstream is mainly supported by rigid demand, with insufficient gas buying. Generally speaking, the short-term long short stalemate in the styrene market is the main trend. Next week, the styrene market is likely to strengthen consolidation, and the price range is 9100-9500 yuan / ton.