It is reported that the US ethylene price rose sharply last week due to the increase of spot exports and the commissioning of several downstream units.

 

The ethylene price of MTB nova in December was 22.5 cents / pound, that of MTB EPC was 23.5 cents / pound in December, and that of Choctaw in December was 24.25 cents / pound. By the end of last week, ethylene prices at Nova hub were up 22% to 27.5 cents per pound. Ethylene prices at the enterprise hub rose 16% to 27.25 cents per pound, while those at the Choctaw hub rose 18% to 28.5 cents per pound.

 

According to OPIs petrocem wire data, since November 1, the largest evaluated operating rate of the U.S. Gulf Coast cracking unit has remained at a relatively stable level of 95%. Prior to this, Louisiana Lake Charles was hit by hurricanes “Laura” and “delta”, the area’s cracker continued to shut down for more than two months, or reduced load operation. During the peak shutdown period, the ethylene operating rate in the Gulf of Mexico region in the United States dropped to 69%.

 

Due to the shutdown of the cracking unit caused by the hurricane, the spot export volume of ethylene in the United States decreased from 49000 tons in August, 42000 tons in September and 28000 tons in October. After the hurricane, as supply returned to normal, ethylene spot exports increased. According to the plan, the spot export of ethylene reached 60000 tons in November. By the first week of December, 80500 tons of ethylene had been arranged at the loading window in December. The highest export month before this year was 99200 tons in July.

 

On the downstream side, Formosa Plastics announced that its low density polyethylene (LDPE) plant was put into production at point comfort, Texas, on November 30. At the same time, the olefin unit No. 1 in the production base is still closed and has been under maintenance since March. The new Sasol / Lyondell Basel joint venture, Louisiana integrated polyethylene, has also increased production of its new LDPE unit in Lake Charles, Louisiana.

 

During the period of the new crown epidemic, the demand for PE resin in the United States has been growing due to the consumer’s consumption habits turning to more packaging products. In particular, the U.S. dollar fell sharply, the Asian PE market, especially the Chinese market, showed strong performance, and the US PE resin export demand in November and December also accelerated growth. Strong export demand led to the spot price rise of Houston train ethylene.

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1、 Price trend

 

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Compared with the same period of last year, the average price of phosphoric acid decreased by 94.6% compared with the same period of last year, which was 0.67% higher than that in the beginning of last year.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

This week, the phosphoric acid market temporarily stable operation, partial downward adjustment. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus fell, and the cost side support was weakened. The phosphoric acid market was cautious to wait and see, and some enterprises lowered their quotations, and the mainstream price was still relatively stable. At present, the downstream demand is general, the trading atmosphere is not good, the support force of superimposed cost side is declining, and the overall phosphoric acid market is weak, with downward expectations. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of December 6, the quotation in Sichuan was 4850-5400 yuan / ton, and the price was rising; in Yunnan, it was about 4800 yuan / ton, with stable trading; in Beijing, it was about 4700 yuan / ton, the price was temporarily stable; in Hubei, it was about 4900-5100 yuan / ton, the price was rising; in Tianjin, it was about 5600 yuan / ton, the price was temporarily stable; in Jiangsu, it was 4600 yuan / ton About yuan / ton, with a slight increase, and the prices in different regions have little change.

 

Regional product specification date price (yuan / ton)

Phosphoric acid content in East China: 85% Dec 6 5390-5400

Phosphoric acid content in Southwest China: 85% Dec 6 4900-4920

Phosphoric acid content: 85% in Central China

In terms of raw materials, the domestic yellow phosphorus price has been lowered recently, and the overall trend is weak, and the yellow phosphorus market is relatively light. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 15800 yuan / ton, and that in Guizhou is about 15700 yuan / ton.

 

For phosphate rock, domestic phosphate ore market has also entered the year-end off-season time, the downstream demand is insufficient, the shipment is not much, the mine operating rate is also reduced, and most of them are stable prices. Therefore, the phosphorus ore data division of the business society believes that in the short term, the phosphate ore market will continue to maintain stable operation, with limited market volatility.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The phosphoric acid analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe that at present, the downstream demand is general, the purchasing sentiment is not high, and the market trading atmosphere is not good. Some phosphoric acid enterprises have started to reduce the price of goods, and at the same time, the cost support force is declining. It is expected that the price of phosphoric acid will be lowered in the short term.

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According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of December 07, the reference average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 8133.33 yuan / ton, which was 500 yuan / ton higher than the low price of this month (7633 yuan / ton on December 3), and 6.55% in the fourth day. Compared with the price on December 1 (reference price of 7700 yuan / ton), the average price of domestic butanone market increased by 433 yuan / ton, and increased by 5.63% in 7 days; compared with the price of November 1 (reference price of 7633 yuan / ton), the average price of butanone increased by 5.63% Compared with the price of 6400 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 1600 yuan / ton, or 25%.

 

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Exports improved, butanone market fell two days later quickly recovered

 

In the early two days of December, due to the reduction of export orders and insufficient downstream demand, the domestic butanone market was loose and fell, and the factory inventory increased. In order to actively ship, some factories and holders reduced the ex factory price of butanone by 100-300 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory reference price of butanone market dropped to 7633 yuan / ton.

 

Since the 4th of last weekend, the domestic market of butanone has improved, and the quoted prices of some factories have increased by 100-200 yuan / ton. Due to the shutdown of butanone units in some Asian countries, the demand for butanone export has increased. On the weekend, new orders in the domestic market have increased and the market inquiry atmosphere has warmed. On the 7th, the domestic butanone market continued to rise by 200 yuan -At present, the overall inventory of butanone plant is relatively low, and the quotation of butanone in South China and North China is mainly firm.

 

As of December 07, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market is 8133.33 yuan / ton, which is 500 yuan / ton, or 6.55%, compared with the low price of this month (7633 yuan / ton on December 3). Compared with the price on December 1 (reference price of 7700 yuan / ton), the average price is increased by 433 yuan / ton, with an increase of 5.63% in 7 days; compared with the price on November 1 (reference price of 6400 yuan / ton), the average price is higher than that of November 1 (reference price of 6400 yuan / ton) Adjust 1600 yuan / ton, up 25%.

 

Upstream, from the beginning of December, the overall market price of LPG civil gas in Shandong Province rose. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong market was 3166 yuan / ton on December 1, and 3250 yuan / ton on December 4. During the period, the price was increased by 84 yuan / ton, with a total increase of 2.63%.

 

Internationally, on December 4, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $46.26/barrel, up $0.62. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, the main contract settlement price to 49.25 U.S. dollars / barrel, up 0.54 dollars. Oil prices continued to rise on Friday, mainly due to rising expectations of the US stimulus plan and vaccines.

 

Good demand for butanone in the short term

 

At present, the market atmosphere of butanone market is good, the export orders increase, and the confidence of the undertakers also increases. The butanone datagrapher of the business agency believes that, supported by the favorable demand, the butanone market will continue to strengthen in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the changes in raw materials and supply and demand.

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According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, affected by the shortage of spot supply, the domestic acetic acid market continued to rise. As of December 4, the domestic acetic acid market was 3800-3950 yuan / ton in Shandong, 4250-4350 yuan / ton in Jiangsu, 4250-4350 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, 3650-3750 yuan / ton in Henan, 3750-3850 yuan / ton in Hebei, 3800 yuan / ton in Northwest China and 4100-4200 yuan / ton in South China About 15.2% in the week.

 

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Unit capacity (10000 t / a) unit output (T / D)

Yankuang Guotai 110.1500

Hualu Hengsheng 50.1500

Yangzi BP 50 12.2 stop

Jiangsu Sopu 120 3300

Celanese 120.3000

Jiantao, Hebei, 50.1400

Tianjin Bohua 35.1000

Henan Shunda 40.1400

Henan Longyu 50.1500

Henan Yima 25 parking

Shaanxi Yanchang 40.1300

Shanghai Huayi 70.1800

Anhui Huayi 50.1300

Dalian Hengli 35.1300

This week, the domestic acetic acid market continued to rise, enterprises increased 700-800 yuan / T, the industry as a whole started to decline, of which Shandong Yankuang 1 million tons / year plant on December 2, the negative 50% is expected to recover in three days, Nanjing Yangzi BPP will stop on December 2, and it is expected to overhaul for about half a month. The company’s parking and load reduction aggravates the market supply tension, and the overall inventory of the industry is low, and the enterprise intends to support the price Strong, the business is bullish, traders are reluctant to sell, the downstream market has a certain resistance to the high price of acetic acid, but the rigid demand is still stable and the intention of preparing goods is good.

 

Methanol market is in a weak decline, and the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is fair. Due to the rise of natural gas price in heating season, the future market needs to pay attention to the impact of the rising cost side. At present, Shandong Province is about 2097 yuan / ton. On the downstream side, the overall supply and demand performance of acetate Market is relatively stable. Affected by the pressure from the cost end, the product price continues to rise, and the terminal market mainly purchases the rigid demand. In addition, there is a certain speculation voice in the market, and it is expected that the high level will be strong in a short period of time.

 

Recently, affected by the sharp rise of acetic acid price in Asia, the overall performance of the international acetic acid market is strong. At present, the Asian acetic acid market is about 490-540 USD / T; the European market is about 560 EUR / T; and the North American market is about 490 USD / T.

 

The acetic acid analysts of the business club believe that the domestic acetic acid market is on a strong upward trend at present. Due to the negative impact of enterprises’ maintenance in East China, the gap at the supply end of the market is difficult to make up for in a short time, and enterprises have strong intention to push forward. Although the downstream market has some conflicts, the overall construction is relatively stable, and the demand for support is good. It is expected that the acetic acid market will rise strongly in a short time.

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According to the business agency data monitoring, as of December 2, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in mainstream areas of China was around 393.33 yuan / ton, which was the same as a week ago; compared with November 1, the average price was increased by 7 yuan / ton, or 1.72%.

 

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Low season stable price is the main reason, but the adjustment of phosphate ore is limited in recent years

 

In December, China’s domestic phosphate ore market as a whole still maintained stable operation, the current market is in the off-season, the number of new orders is not much, business agency data learned from Guizhou phosphate ore miners, at present, individual mining enterprises still maintain the current quotation to the end of the year, the market adjustment is limited at the end of the year, and the weak trend is mainly to stabilize the price. At present, as of December 2, Guizhou Province: 30% grade phosphate ore car plate quotation reference 300-360 yuan / ton, 28% grade phosphate ore vehicle plate quotation reference 280-320 yuan / ton, Guizhou Xifeng phosphate ore mainly supplies more than 30% quality phosphate rock, at present, the phosphate mine continues to operate, the enterprise 30% phosphate rock car plate price 350 yuan / ton, the price continues to be stable. Guizhou Kaiyang Guanglong mining 30% grade phosphate rock freight plant quoted 320 yuan / ton, the price is stable. In Guangxi, the quotation of 28% phosphate rock pallet is 290-310 yuan / ton, and that of 30% phosphate rock is 330-350 yuan / ton.

 

On the downstream side, the current spot sales of yellow phosphorus market are basically normal, and the overall market demand is light. As of December 3, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 16500 yuan / ton; that in Guizhou is about 15700 yuan / ton; in Sichuan, it is about 16500 yuan / ton. It is reported that the electricity price in Yunnan will be increased by 1-2 points this month. Although the increase is less than expected, the price of yellow phosphorus is expected to fall in a limited space.

 

Decline in construction, decrease in demand and maintenance of market stability

 

At present, with the coming of deep winter, the domestic phosphate ore market has also entered the year-end off-season time. The downstream demand is insufficient, the shipment is not much, and the mine operating rate is also reduced, most of which are stable prices. Therefore, the phosphorus ore data division of the business society believes that in the short term, the phosphate ore market will continue to maintain stable operation, with limited market volatility.

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According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, the ethyl acetate Market in November continued to rise due to the high cost pressure and supply decline. As of November 30, the average price of enterprises in East China was about 6832 yuan / ton, up 3.8% compared with the beginning of the month.

 

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Affected by the high price operation of raw materials acetic acid and ethanol, the production cost of ethyl acetate is high. In the middle of the year, some enterprises have reduced their negative operation, resulting in tight supply of goods in the market. The price of ethyl acetate is strong supported by the double advantages. The downstream market mainly purchases the rigid demand, which conflicts with the high price of ethyl acetate, and the game atmosphere between supply and demand in the industry is becoming stronger. At present, it is about 6900 yuan / ton in East China, 6750 yuan / ton in North China and 7400 yuan / ton in South China.

 

In terms of raw materials, the acetic acid market continued to rise, domestic demand and export were supported by two-way favorable factors. In addition, the short-term suspension of some enterprises in North China intensified the market supply tension, and multiple favorable factors promoted the continuous rise of acetic acid price. The ethanol market is running at a high level, and the quotation is stable. The downstream just needs to purchase, and some enterprises stop. The overall stock of the market is low. At present, the ethanol in East China is about 6925 yuan / ton.

 

The international market price of ethyl acetate has been rising steadily. The port price in European market is about 1400-1500 euro / ton, and that in North America is about 760 US dollars / ton.

 

According to the analysts of ethyl acetate of business club, the current supply of ethyl acetate Market is gradually recovering. In order to prevent excessive stock pressure in the future market, the enterprise has a good intention to ship goods. Due to the high cost side, the enterprise has obvious intention of supporting price. It is expected that the ethyl acetate Market will remain high and strong in a short period of time.

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Zinc price trend

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc price rose sharply in November, and the zinc market rose. As of November 30, the average price of zinc was 21880.00 yuan / ton, which was 8.75% higher than that of 20120.00 yuan / ton on November 1 at the beginning of the month.

 

China Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index

 

According to the National Bureau of statistics, China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) was 52.1% in November, which was above the critical point for nine consecutive months, and the PMI in November was the highest in 2020. The PMI is higher than the level in the year, which indicates that China’s economy has recovered steadily, and the recovery momentum is good, and there is a momentum of accelerated development. With the recovery and development of economy, the demand for zinc market is rising steadily, and the benefit of zinc market is greater.

 

Import and export data of zinc and its products

 

Time stamp export (RMB 10000) import (RMB 10000) accumulated over the same period last year

Monthly volume, current year cumulative volume, current year cumulative volume, export and import

January 2019 zinc and its products 13747 13747 149311 149311 24.5 – 14.1

February 2019 zinc and its products 7004 20767 49626 198936 – 4.5 – 26.7

March 2019 zinc and its products 10400 31164 121449 320385 – 7.7 – 14.9

April 2019 zinc and its products 11097 42035 175192 495577 – 8.5 5.4

May 2019 zinc and its products 12385 54423 139800 635348 – 11.1 3

June 2019 zinc and its products 25686 80135 132032 767326 3.6 7

July 2019 zinc and its products 38507 118653 101923 869371 26.9 4.5

August 2019 zinc and its products 20777 139402 141244 1010615 30 6.6

September 2019 zinc and its products 14268 153670 80799 1091454 25.4 – 0.6

October 2019 zinc and its products 21319 174932 98273 1189390 30.2 – 6.4

November 2019 zinc and its products 32531 207394 101435 1292566 39.1 – 14.4

December 2019 zinc and its products 23286 229131 148593 1441230 40.1 – 15.7

From January to February 2020, zinc and its products 29057 137093 41.3 – 31.2

March 2020 zinc and its products 17123 46174 80479 217620 50.5 – 32.4

April 2020 zinc and its products 15395 61569 84595 302215 48.1 – 39.3

May 2020 zinc and its products 13335 75013 94772 396988 39.1 – 37.6

June 2020 zinc and its products 13774 88788 132810 529798 11.8 – 30.9

July 2020 zinc and its products 13351 102139 106681 636479 – 13.2 – 26.7

August 2020 zinc and its products 12273 114412 120095 756573 – 17.2 – 25.1

September 2020 zinc and its products 11818 126230 139195 895768 – 17.1 – 17.8

October 2020 zinc and its products 12744 138974 149146 1044914 – 19.9 – 12.1

According to the statistics released by the national customs, the export volume of zinc and its products will drop sharply in 2020, and the import volume will drop sharply but rise slowly. In general, the export of domestic zinc market will decline, the import will pick up, and the negative pressure of domestic zinc market will increase.

 

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Supply and demand data of global zinc Market

 

According to the data of the international lead and zinc research group, the excess supply scale of the global zinc market rose from 3.15 tons in August to 33100 tons in September. In the first nine months of this year, there was a surplus of 437000 tons of zinc, compared with a shortage of 197000 tons in the same period last year. The output of zinc ore in September was 1.091 million tons, with a slight increase on a month on month basis. The output of zinc ore from January to September was 8.866 million tons; the output of refined zinc in September was 1.152 million tons, with a slight increase on a month on month basis. The refined zinc output from January to September was 9.977 million tons. The consumption of refined zinc in September was 1.119 million tons, and that in January September was 9.54 million tons. The excess risk of global zinc market is obviously increased, which is bad for domestic zinc market. The rising risk of zinc market is increasing, and the negative effect still exists in zinc market.

 

Analysis, review and Prospect

 

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at the business agency, said: the domestic economic recovery accelerated in November, and the domestic economy was all-round positive. The demand for zinc market rose, and the good news of the zinc market remained. However, the pressure of oversupply in the global zinc market is increasing, and the import and export imbalance of zinc market is increasing, the import and export are decreasing, and the downward pressure of domestic zinc market is greater. Generally speaking, the future zinc market has both positive and negative effects, and the overall zinc market is favorable, but the negative pressure is increased, and the support for the rise of zinc market is weakened. It is expected that the future zinc market will still have a small rise space, but the downward pressure of zinc market will accumulate, and the zinc price is expected to fall slightly at the end of the year.

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