In November, the bisphenol a market continued to rise sharply, especially in the two working days this week, some factories increased by 1300-1500 yuan / ton, followed by the market. The offer was still 13500 yuan / ton at the end of last week, increased by 1000 yuan / ton in the opening of this week, and Rose 500-800 yuan / ton in the second working day after waking up. Up to now, the mainstream offers in the national market are all in the range of 15400-15600 yuan / ton, And the atmosphere in the venue is good, the attitude of the cargo owners is positive, and they are still optimistic about the future market. According to the monitoring data of business agency, on November 1, bisphenol a market offered 12600 yuan / ton, and on November 10, it was 15440 yuan / ton, up 22.54% in 10 days.

It is reported that the domestic epoxy resin market went up sharply in November, especially in liquid resin. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the factories often closed their plates and did not report in the market. It is difficult to obtain the actual price because of the shortage of spot goods. At present, the negotiated price of liquid resin is 28500-30000 yuan / ton It is understood that the current price of liquid resin has reached the peak in nearly three years, and there is still a upward trend. In terms of factories, in October, the offer of factories was still at 21000-22000 yuan / ton. At the end of October, most of the factories had closed the offer, and the orders were mainly for production. It is understood that at present, the sporadic offers of some factories are also in the range of 28000-30000 yuan / ton. Another important downstream product PC is mainly affected by the rise in raw materials, showing a bright performance and an obvious increase.

The sharp rise of bisphenol A comes from the cost side of raw materials, which is not obvious. On the contrary, the raw materials also have some recovery from the upward trend of bisphenol A, but the increase is not optimistic. In terms of raw materials, the market growth of phenol and acetone is not significant. Taking East China as an example, the overall upward trend of phenol is about 200 yuan / ton. The reference is 5600-5700 yuan / ton. The low-end price is almost nonexistent, and the enthusiasm of terminal connection is getting warmer. Acetone negotiation In 7300-7450 yuan / ton, there are replenishment in the downstream, but after the early replenishment, the transaction is not so good. The cost is not up to much at present, and the support from cost side is not enough. On the contrary, from the raw material side, bisphenol A factory suck up.

The offers of bisphenol A are as follows:

Regional price rise and fall

East China 15500 500

North China 15500 500

From the perspective of business agencies, supply in East China and North China is very tight at present, and under the situation of continuous and substantial increase of factories, some cargo holders are reluctant to sell. In the morning, they are more reluctant to offer their orders. The downstream orders are better and the attitude of the shipholders is better. The Business Association expects that the bisphenol a market will continue to be high, with an offer of 15500-16000 yuan / ton.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of November 9, the average price of silicone DMC market quotation in the mainstream areas of data monitoring was 22766 yuan / ton. Compared with November 6 last weekend, the average price was increased by 266 yuan / ton, or 1.19%; compared with November 1, the average price was increased by 2366 yuan / ton, or 11.60%; compared with October 1, the average price was increased by 4966 yuan / ton, or 27.90%. Compared with last year, the increase was 34.71%.

The rising trend of silicone DMC has not stopped or will rise again

At present, the market of silicone DMC can be described as “Crazy”. Since the beginning of November, DMC’s rising trend continued to be unstoppable, with a large area of closed plates, reluctant to sell, serious downstream shortage, and positive replenishment of orders. After the end of last week, there was still no significant change in the closing phenomenon. On Monday (9th), there were only a few odd offer factories in the market, and the prices continued to rise. The mainstream price was 22600-23300 yuan / ton, and the quotations in some secondary markets were up to 23600 yuan / ton. As of November 9, the average price of silicone DMC in mainstream areas was 22766 yuan / ton, which was 266 yuan / ton or 1.19% higher than that on November 6 last weekend; the average price was increased by 2366 yuan / ton, or 11.60%, compared with November 1; and 4966 yuan / ton, or 27.90%, compared with October 1. Compared with last year, the increase was 34.71%.

In the current situation of serious shortage of silicone DMC in stock, the market has been “booming”. On November 9, Zhejiang Zhongtian burst into a fire. This unexpected event may once again promote the silicone industry. Under the reduction of on-site inventory, the silicone DMC may continue to rise and rise to a scream.

On the downstream side, the market of silicone DMC keeps rising. Under the support of cost, the downstream raw rubber market continues to gather to the high-end. The manufacturers have a compact list, Limited sales, and actual single negotiation. 107 rubber market price continued to rise, the current spot tension, East China region holding goods on the price of 24000-25500 yuan / ton. The price of silicone oil remains high, many manufacturers do not offer, the reference quotation of dimethylsilicone oil in South China is around 24000-24500 yuan / ton.

Silicone DMC may continue to rise owing to the fire

At present, the overall market of silicone DMC market “momentum does not decrease”, Zhongtian sudden fire, market supply will be more tight, downstream replenishment gap increases again, so it is expected that silicone DMC market in the future will continue to rise.

1、 Trend analysis

Copper prices rose slightly this week. As of the end of the week, the spot copper price was 51653.33 yuan / ton, up 1.09% compared with the beginning of the week, 9.12% year-on-year and 5.34% higher than the beginning of the year. Recently, copper price fluctuated mainly.

Copper strike: a union at Canada’s Candelaria copper mine in Chile said late Tuesday that it had once again rejected another contract from the company and would continue with a nearly month long strike. Lundin said earlier this week that the company had submitted a new contract to try to end the strike that began on October 8. Later in the month, a second Union joined the strike, forcing the mine to close. Candelaria produces 111400 tons of copper in 2019.

Reduced copper production: global diversified natural resources company Glencore reported on October 30 that copper production in the third quarter was 346600 tons, down 2% year-on-year. The Swiss based company said copper production from January to September was 934700 tons, down 81100 tons or 8 percentage points from a year earlier.

The coming of the off-season: the domestic copper consumption performance in October is fair, but the traditional consumption peak season is about to pass, and it is doubtful that the consumption will continue to recover. Since the end of September, the refined copper output in some regions of China has increased, with an average weekly output of about 20000 tons, much higher than the annual average of 17000 tons. The refrigeration industry and cable orders have improved since the National Day mid autumn holiday. The operating rate of copper pipe processing enterprises is basically maintained at about 75%, and that of wire and cable enterprises is about 90%. However, the industrial differentiation is still serious Factory operating rate remained high, while orders from small and medium-sized processing plants performed poorly. With the advent of consumption off-season, if there is no substantial domestic terminal stimulus policy, it is expected that domestic downstream consumption will not improve significantly in November.

In view of the above situation, the copper strike continued this week, and Chile’s copper production decreased in the third quarter, which supported copper prices. However, the traditional consumption off-season came in November, and the demand was expected to be poor, and the copper price was expected to maintain a weak volatility pattern.

On March 3, the center of gravity of acetone market was lowered again. The main negotiation space in East China was 7050-7150 yuan / ton. Compared with the trading and investment atmosphere at the end of last month, although the major factories rose in succession, the demand of the market slowed down and the sentiment of replenishment in the market declined.

The carrier is under pressure and actively delivers goods. The real offer on the site is limited. Yesterday, the East China market closed at 7100 yuan / ton, with low prices. The high price of South China disappeared was 7250 yuan / ton, and the offer of Yanshan and the surrounding areas of Shandong was the same as that of the factory. The business agency expects the market offer in East China to be 7050-7150 yuan / ton.

The closing of acetone offer in all markets of the country as of the last trading day is as follows:

Regional quotation rise and fall

East China 7100

7150 in Shandong

Around Yanshan 7150

South China 7250

On the first working day of November, the price of NBR was raised again. According to the monitoring of business agency, the listed price of NBR in Lanzhou Petrochemical Company has been increased by 700 yuan / ton: at present, n41e is quoted at 16500 yuan / ton, 3305e is at 17100 yuan / ton, 3308e is at 17700 yuan / ton; Ningbo shunze nitrile rubber ex factory price is increased by 400 yuan / ton, currently nitrile 28 series is quoted at 17800 yuan / ton, 3355 / 3365 / 3345 price is 18000 yuan / ton, 3380 yuan / ton.

The price of NBR in domestic market rose again with the increase of manufacturer’s supply price. As of November 2, the price of NBR was 18933.33 yuan / ton, up 4.03% compared with the previous day.

The price of raw materials rose, and the cost of NBR was supported. The price of butadiene in October increased from 6338 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 9200 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an overall increase of 45.16%; the ex factory price of acrylonitrile Shanghai Secco in October increased from 8700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 9200 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an overall increase of 5.75%.

On the one hand, due to the continuous and serious impact of the epidemic situation abroad, the demand for medical nitrile rubber gloves was strong, and the demand for nitrile rubber latex was in short supply, and the price rose to nearly 30000 yuan / ton. Driven by profits, some manufacturers switched the production lines of NBR to produce NBR latex, and the supply of other brands of NBR in the market decreased. On the other hand, jinjiuyinshi traditional nitrile dry rubber downstream insulation foam and hose industry operating rate higher than the previous period, strong demand, rigid support for the nitrile dry rubber. To sum up, the whole supply and demand side supports the rise of NBR market price

Comparison of export volume of nitrile latex in 2019 and 2020

Start up of NBR manufacturers

Production capacity (ten thousand tons / year) plant performance

Normal operation of Lanzhou Petrochemical Company

Zhenjiang Nandi 5 parking maintenance

Ningbo shunze 6.5 normal operation, a line of latex production

Langsheng taixiang 3 has been affected by environmental protection, and its construction has been reduced recently

Normal operation of Jinpu YINGSA 3

Aftermarket forecast: business analysts believe that although the current NBR price is high, squeezing the profits of downstream products industry, forming a certain negative expectation for the future market. However, on the one hand, the price of raw materials is high and the cost support is obvious. On the other hand, the rigid demand of downstream products industry and the large demand of latex still form support for the whole nitrile industry. Therefore, the price of NBR is expected to remain high in the short term.

This week (10.26-30), the price of domestic polycrystalline silicon has been stable and falling. The domestic market and imported material prices have declined to varying degrees. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of polycrystalline silicon fell by 0.5% this week. The main reason is that with more and more enterprises returning to work, the supply side has changed from tight to abundant.

In October, domestic polysilicon market began to decline, this week is to continue the previous trend. In terms of supply, at present, the operating rate of domestic polysilicon manufacturers has rebounded. Up to now, about 11 domestic polysilicon manufacturers have maintained about 2 maintenance or load reduction start-up. The production capacity in Xinjiang has been restored, and the supply has slightly increased compared with the previous period. According to relevant information, Sichuan’s large-scale factories suffered floods before, resulting in unit shutdown. This week, the plant produced qualified materials Bring incremental supply to the market. At present, the inventory of most enterprises is on the high side at present, but the downstream manufacturers are also accelerating the process of digestion, and the signing of orders by enterprises continues, and large factories begin to sign new orders in November. This mainly depends on the stability just needed at present. At present, the upstream and downstream enterprises of silicon materials have been in the process of price game, superimposed on the increase of Korean OCI source of goods to Hong Kong, resulting in the supply of both domestic and imported showed a rising trend. The reason why the price did not fall sharply is that the demand of downstream is stable. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic mainstream transaction price of polysilicon with the model of first-class solar material is 60000-65000 yuan / ton, and the price of polysilicon in non China area is 70000-73000 yuan / ton.

In the near future, the supply of polycrystalline silicon is relatively abundant, and the upstream and downstream stocks are gradually consumed in the price game. It is expected that the replenishment efforts of downstream manufacturers of silicon materials will continue in the later stage. However, whether the supply and demand can be balanced depends on the situation of terminals and exports. Due to the severe trend of overseas epidemic situation, it is expected that export may bring pressure, and the impact of foreign silicon material supply can not be ignored In this medium-term, polysilicon will inevitably fall into the situation of relative excess supply, and the price is easy to fall but difficult to rise.

Note: the above price is tax inclusive