Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, since the late November, the price of o-benzene has risen continuously, and the market of o-benzene has ushered in a crazy November. As of November 27, Sinopec East China executed the contract price of 5300.00 yuan / ton, Sinopec North China executed the contract price of 5500 yuan / ton, and the average price of o-benzene quoted was 5380 yuan / ton, up 22.27% compared with the beginning of the month (November 1) of 4400 yuan / ton of o-xylene.

Upstream market of o-benzene

It can be seen from the price trend chart of mixed xylene that the price of mixed xylene fluctuated sharply in November, and then stabilized, with an overall increase of 8.05% in November. The cost of o-xylene rose and the driving force for the rise of o-xylene increased.

Trend of downstream products

It can be seen from the phthalic anhydride price trend chart that in November, the phthalic anhydride price was still rising, but in the last ten days, the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized and fell back, with an increase of 17.54% in November. After the phthalic anhydride market rose sharply, the high level fell, which weakened the good for the o-benzene market, stabilized the downstream demand of o-benzene, and weakened the driving force for the future market of phthalic anhydride price.

Future forecast

According to Bai Jiaxin, an o-xylene data analyst at the business club, in November, the price of mixed xylene, raw material of o-benzene, rose, and the cost of o-benzene rose, and the driving force for the rise of o-benzene was greater; after the sharp rise of phthalic anhydride price in November, the price of o-xylene stabilized, the downstream market of o-benzene rose, the demand of o-benzene rose, the profit of o-benzene increased, and the price of o-benzene rose continuously. For the future market, the sharp rise of o-benzene industrial chain in November led to the continuous rise of o-benzene price. However, with the stabilization of mixed xylene price and the fall of downstream phthalic anhydride price, the upward momentum of o-benzene weakened and the downward pressure increased. It is expected that the price of o-benzene in the future market will stabilize, with a certain downward pressure.

In the middle of November, the propane market did not continue. The overall trend began to decline on the 11th and rebounded on the 23rd. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane market was 3937.50 yuan / ton on November 11, 3800.00 yuan / ton on November 23, with a decrease of 3.49% during the period. The average price of propane on November 25 was 3845.00 yuan / ton, up 1.18% compared with that on November 23.

According to the data comparison of business agency, propane market price this year (2020) is at a low level compared with previous years. Due to the coming of winter and the cold weather, November should be the peak demand season for propane Market. However, in November this year, the trend of Shandong propane market is mainly volatile, and there is no obvious upward trend. Although CP rose sharply in November, it brought Limited benefits to the market. Starting from the 11th, it is out of the line of continuous decline. In terms of market supply, Shandong’s market supply has increased, but in terms of demand, due to the weather cooling is not obvious, the market demand is still weak, the terminal consumption is slow, and the downstream replenishment is mainly phased. The market is in oversupply.

Entering this week (11.23-25), the international crude oil continued to rise, the news brought a significant boost to the market, together with the rising cost of gas intake, which obviously supported the market. Shandong propane market finally stopped falling and ushered in a rebound situation. At present, the overall domestic propane market is mainly up, but there is still a difference between the South and North markets. Due to the end of the downstream periodic replenishment, the northern market rose slightly. The southern market was mainly pushed up. As of November 25, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Regional specification November 25

Propane in East China,% (V / V) not less than: 953600-3700 yuan / ton

Propane in North China,% (V / V) not less than: 953770-3900 yuan / ton

Propane in Shandong area,% (V / V) not less than: 95 3780-3900 yuan / ton

Propane in South China,% (V / V) not less than: 953500-3600 yuan / ton

Propane in Central China,% (V / V) not less than: 953800-3850 yuan / ton

In terms of international crude oil, the international oil price continued to rise in November. At present, it has maintained an upward trend for four consecutive weeks. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of November 24, the growth rate of American oil was 24.16%, and that of Brent crude oil was 24.88%. At present, the oil price has reached the highest point in recent eight months. On the one hand, the good news of the new crown vaccine has boosted the demand expectation; on the other hand, according to the news released from the market, OPEC + is expected to further maintain the current super scale production reduction, which is good for the supply expectation.

At present, the crude oil market is obviously up in favor of the international market. The enthusiasm of downstream market entry has improved, and the southern market is more positive. However, the situation that the market supply exceeds demand has not changed significantly. The weak demand still has a constraint on the rise. In the short term, propane Market or small rise.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide products)

2、 Market analysis

On November 25, the market of industrial grade lithium hydroxide stabilized temporarily. As of November 25, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 54666.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous trading day, flat with October 25, and decreased by 1.80% on a half year cycle. In the near future, the price of upstream lithium carbonate has risen, the cost support has risen, the domestic demand side has not improved significantly, the spot transaction is limited, and the market is running smoothly.

At present, the external quotation of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Shanghai Yulun industry is 53000 yuan / ton, and that of Zigong tongfarong industrial is 53000 yuan / ton. The specific transaction price is discussed in a single way. On November 24, the commodity index of lithium hydroxide was 130.16, flat with yesterday, 65.88% lower than the highest point of 381.48 (2016-09-12), and 30.16% higher than the lowest point of 100.00 on September 04, 2014. (Note: period refers to 2014-09-01 to now)

According to the price monitoring of the upstream lithium carbonate, the price of lithium carbonate in East China began to show a steady upward trend in November, until the end of the month, the price increase was significantly enhanced. The comprehensive price of lithium carbonate battery is in the comprehensive price of RMB 85000-80000 tons.

3、 Future forecast

Lithium hydroxide analysts from the business club believe that the price of lithium carbonate in the upstream has risen in the near future, the cost support is obvious, and the downstream demand is poor. It is expected that the industrial grade lithium hydroxide Market will be stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of domestic baking soda has declined. On November 24, the average price in the domestic market was 1440 yuan / ton, down 3.21% from the price on the previous trading day. On November 23, the bicarbonate commodity index was 103.32, flat with yesterday, down 15.09% from 121.68 (October 21, 2020), and 3.32% higher than the lowest point of 100.00 on September 06, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business club, the price of baking soda is weak. At present, the price of sodium bicarbonate in Henan Province is falling down, and the mainstream quotation in the market is about 1300-1450 yuan / ton, and the downstream demand is general. It is expected that the price will slightly consolidate in the near future. The price of sodium bicarbonate in Hebei Province has been lowered, and the mainstream quotation in the market is about 1350-1500 yuan / ton, and the downstream is mostly purchased on demand.

As for raw materials, the domestic soda ash market is temporarily stable, the market atmosphere is light, the downstream manufacturers are cautious and wait-and-see attitude, and it is expected that the weak operation of soda ash in the later stage will be dominated. The market of soda ash in Central China is weak. The mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1600-1700 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is general, and the overall downstream manufacturers are cautious. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be stabilized in the short term. The soda ash market in South China is weak. The mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1700-1800 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is general. The overall downstream manufacturers are cautious. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be weak in the short term.

Demand: in the downstream, the demand for sodium bicarbonate is weak in medicine, textile and food, and the price of sodium bicarbonate is down. According to the analysts of the business agency, the domestic soda ash market is temporarily stabilized, the market atmosphere is light, the downstream manufacturers are cautious and wait-and-see attitude is the main factor, and it is expected that the weak operation of soda ash will be the main trend in the later stage. On the downstream side, the demand for sodium bicarbonate in medicine, textile and food is not good, and the transaction of sodium bicarbonate is average. It is expected that the price of sodium bicarbonate will be dominated by weak operation in the later stage, which depends on the demand of downstream market.

1、 Price data:

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business associations, the domestic bromine market continued to be strong. As of November 23, the average price of bromine in Shandong was about 32555 yuan / ton, up 2.09% compared with the beginning of the month, and 5.78% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Cause analysis

The domestic bromine market continued to be strong. With the gradual decrease of temperature, the bromine market entered the production off-season. At present, the inventory of enterprises was generally low, and the future supply expectation was limited. The purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream market decreased compared with that before, which contradicted the high price of bromine. The competition atmosphere between supply and demand in the market became more and more intense. The mainstream bromine enterprises quoted about 32500-33000 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the domestic sulfur market is stable, the market sulfur price is firm, and there is no low price shipping intention. Domestic refineries quote according to their own shipment situation, and the sulfur prices in various regions are stable. At present, the downstream demand is stable and the shipment is smooth, and the procurement is mainly based on demand, which is about 950 yuan / T. in terms of sulfuric acid, the upstream sulfur market has been consolidated at a high level recently, and the cost support is relatively high Well, the high consolidation of the downstream market has a positive impact on sulfuric acid. At the same time, some sulfuric acid manufacturers are short of operation recently, with reduced load and tight supply of sulfuric acid, which is about 415 yuan / ton. The domestic soda ash market is temporarily stabilized, the market atmosphere is light, and the downstream manufacturers are cautious and wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the weak operation of soda ash in the later stage will be dominated, and at present, it is about 1816 yuan / ton. The main downstream flame retardant market of bromine turned weak, the market just declined, the enthusiasm for receiving goods declined, and the enterprises were somewhat resistant to the high price of bromine; the industry of pharmaceutical and pesticide intermediates started to operate generally, and the demand side supported the bromine price moderately.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of bromine industry of business society believe that due to the declining trend of bromine market in the later stage, the tight supply situation in the industry will be further intensified. Some downstream companies have already prepared for storage, which is in conflict with the high price of bromine. The game atmosphere between supply and demand is getting stronger and stronger. It is expected that bromine will continue to run stably in a short period of time.

This week (11.13-11.20), the average price of domestic silicon (441) market rose sharply, with a range of 2.55%.

Compared with the domestic market, the average price of silicon increased by 11.33% compared with the domestic market at the beginning of the year.

On the 20th, the prices of 441 silicon in different regions were as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Fujian is 12500-12600 yuan / ton, that of Sichuan is 12700-12900 yuan / ton, that of Kunming is 12700-12900 yuan / ton, that of Shanghai is 13700-13900 yuan / ton, that of Tianjin port is 13300-13400 yuan / ton, and that of Huangpu port is 13000-13100 yuan / ton 。

Recent positive factors

1. The silicon production in Yunnan has been reduced

On the news, Yunnan Dehong silicon plant started to reduce production orderly in the middle and early November due to power restriction factors. The reduction and shutdown of metal silicon factories in Yunnan increased, and the regional output reduction was expected to intensify.

2. Tight spot at trading end

At present, there are not many spot metal silicon stocks available for trading in the market, and the market is in a good situation. The stock holders are not worried about the situation. The willingness of some large manufacturers to raise prices is increased, which encourages the market to be bullish.

Future forecast

The rise of downstream price is beneficial to the price of raw materials to a certain extent; combined with the recent tight spot situation, it is expected that the rising state of silicon metal price in the near future will probably continue.

Today (11.19) after the domestic methanol market rose, some manufacturers reduced the ex factory quotation by about 50 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong was 1882 yuan / ton on November 1 and 2115 yuan / ton on November 19 in Shandong. The price cycle increased by 12.35%, and the price rose by 9.59% month on month and 1.78% year on year. Affected by the weather in some areas, there is no quotation for shutdown and maintenance of the device. At present, the inventory of production enterprises is not high, and the attitude of the industry is optimistic. At present, the profits of traders are fair, and the methanol analysts of the business society predict that the domestic methanol market will fluctuate in the short term.

As of 11.19, summary of methanol market prices in various regions:

Regional price

Qinghai Area/

Shanxi area 1930-1940 yuan / t spot exchange

2000 yuan / ton cash delivery in Liaoning

2230 yuan / ton in Fujian Province

The factory reference of Lianghu area is 2160-2200 yuan / ton

Acceptance of 2200-2220 yuan / ton in Anhui Province

Henan Province factory reference 2020-2050 yuan / ton

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, pure benzene continued to rise with styrene this week. On November 8, the listed price of pure benzene was 3590-3800 yuan / ton (the average price was 3710 yuan / ton); on this Sunday (November 15), the listed price of pure benzene was 3950-4050 yuan / ton (average 4020 yuan / ton), which was 310 yuan / ton or 8.36% higher than last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Driven by the strong rise of styrene downstream, combined with the strong support of crude oil and external market wide rise, the price of pure benzene continued to rise this week. This week, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was raised twice, from 250 yuan / ton to 4000 yuan / ton

On the external side, this week, the external market rose widely. On Friday (November 13), South Korea imported 553 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, an increase of 73 US dollars / ton, or 15.21%, compared with November 6; and that of East China was 564 US dollars / ton, up 77 US dollars / ton, or 15.81%.

In terms of crude oil, news on Monday that the new crown vaccine had new progress brought good, and the crude oil market price rose rapidly. Compared with November 6, Brent was up $3.485/barrel, or 9.1%, and WTI was up $2.91/barrel, or 7.76%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 37.41%, and WTI decreased by 33.52%.

Downstream: styrene continued to rise this week, rising strongly. On November 15, the price of styrene in Shandong was 8750 yuan / ton, up 1050 yuan / ton or 13.64% over last week.

Aniline Market is stable this week. On November 13, the price of aniline in Shandong was 6500-6700 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 6700-6800 yuan / ton

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, there is no possibility of vaccine listing in the short term, and the impact on oil price gradually subsides. The market turns to worry about demand, and it is expected that the oil price will fall under pressure next week.

Styrene is basically oriented to the good, domestic and foreign demand is high, most of which are bullish in the short term. Pure benzene is expected to continue to maintain a high level and strengthen driven by styrene.

1、 Price trend

The price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose this week. This week, the average ex factory quotation price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China rose from 3056.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3150.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 93.33 yuan / ton or 3.05%, 16.81% higher than the same period last year. Overall, this week’s carbide market rose, carbide commodity index on November 13 was 82.53.

2、 Trend analysis

According to the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise this week: the price of carbide from oviganeng is 3400 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which is 280 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the quotation of carbide of Inner Mongolia and China Union is 3250 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the quotation of calcium carbide in Xingping of Ningxia is 2800 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

Overall, the actual transaction price of calcium carbide in Northwest China is about 2800-3400 yuan / ton this weekend: the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi is about 3400 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Ningxia is about 2800 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 3200 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation.

From the calcium carbide upstream and downstream industry chain, upstream raw material market, orchid charcoal factory quotation this week temporarily stable. At present, the quotation of small materials is 650 yuan / ton, that of medium materials is 680 yuan / ton, and that of large materials is about 750 yuan / ton. The upstream raw material prices rose slightly and the cost support was good, which had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market, PVC serious shortage this week, factory prices rise. The price of PVC increased by 1.85% from 7425.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7562.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 12.96%. This week, PVC prices rose slightly, the market is good, downstream purchasing enthusiasm for calcium carbide, overall, PVC market this week has a positive impact on calcium carbide prices.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle and late November, calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly and rose mainly. The price of raw materials in the upstream rose slightly, which supported the price of calcium carbide better. The shortage of PVC in the downstream was serious and the market rose sharply. The downstream customers had a good enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. Later market forecast that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly in mid November.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the domestic ethanol market price was 6837 yuan / ton on November 9 at the beginning of the week and 6762 yuan / ton on November 13 at the weekend, with a decrease of 1.10% in the period, a rise of 6.08% on a month on month basis and a rise of 23.86% on a year-on-year basis. At present, the spot market of raw material corn is weak, and from the perspective of demand, liquor purchasing in downstream consumption is mainly required. Some enterprises mainly consume inventory when the equipment is shut down for maintenance. Traders in the overall market are more bearish on the future market, and the ethanol analysts of the business agency expect that the domestic ethanol market will still be sorted out next week.

Quotation of 95% ethanol of some Shandong ethanol production enterprises:

Enterprise price (yuan / ton) device dynamics

Shandong Yusheng / 50000 T / a cassava alcohol plant shut down

Shandong Wudi Runsheng / 50000 T / a cassava alcohol plant shut down

Shandong fulichun 6750 cassava ethanol plant is normal

Shandong Chengguang general grade 6850/

Shandong Chengguang no water 7450/